Entering 2026, the White Sox were given virtually zero chance to make the postseason: just 1.1% on FanGraphs and 0.8% on Baseball Prospectus.

In over 20 years of public tracking (PECOTA since 2003, FanGraphs since 2014), no team has ever made the playoffs from a baseline that low. The previous record holders were the 2015 Texas Rangers (3.1%), followed by the 2008 Rays (3.8% on PECOTA), 2021 Giants (4.2% on PECOTA), and 2017 Twins (5.1% on FanGraphs).

Coming off three straight 100-loss seasons, including an MLB-record 121 losses in 2024, and backed by an AL-leading 11 walk-off wins, you can certainly argue that this is probably the most miraculous team in modern baseball history.

Let's make it even more crazy over the next month...

I haven't had this much fun since 2005 (and 2006 when I thought they were actually better) following a team with low expectations. This is just the start of what this team and organization can become with the youth movement and Ishbia with a new stadium looming. It feels good to be a White Sox fan today. Something not one of us has really said since 2022.

1 minute ago, chw42 said:

Entering 2026, the White Sox were given virtually zero chance to make the postseason: just 1.1% on FanGraphs and 0.8% on Baseball Prospectus.

In over 20 years of public tracking (PECOTA since 2003, FanGraphs since 2014), no team has ever made the playoffs from a baseline that low. The previous record holders were the 2015 Texas Rangers (3.1%), followed by the 2008 Rays (3.8% on PECOTA), 2021 Giants (4.2% on PECOTA), and 2017 Twins (5.1% on FanGraphs).

Coming off three straight 100-loss seasons, including an MLB-record 121 losses in 2024, and backed by an AL-leading 11 walk-off wins, you can certainly argue that this is probably the most miraculous team in modern baseball history.

Amazing after losing 121 games 2 years ago. I would have never bet on this happening regardless of the odds.

Great post, especially when you consider how bad they started

41 minutes ago, fathom said:

Great post, especially when you consider how bad they started

They had a 0.3% chance to make the playoffs on April 15th

I have been a Sox fan and like everyone else have seen some good team and bad teams, likable and not so likable teams. This team is so over the top likable and fun to watch I am glad they beat the odds and made it to the playoffs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb

12th for winning WS odds at the moment

LAD over 30%

most incredible is the Guardians' rank at 4th overall at 8%...based on easier path to Rays or Yankees ALCS

and Braves' 9th for having to get out of the WC round against Philly or the Cubs

2024 Royals were 6% preseason based largely on FA spending and Witt Jr.

56-106 to 86-76

Edited 17 hours ago17 hr by caulfield12

2025-26 White Sox (60-102 to TBD)
2023-24 Royals (56-106 to 86-76)
2022-23 Reds (62-100 to 82-80)
2021-22 Orioles (52-110 to 83-79)
2016-17 Twins (59-103 to 85-77)
2008-09 Mariners (61-101 to 85-77)
1988-89 Orioles (54-107 to 87-75)
1985-86 Giants (62-100 to 83-79)
1985-86 Cleveland (60-102 to 84-78)
1979-80 Athletics (54-108 to 83-79)
1973-74 Rangers (57-105 to 84-76-1)
1966-67 Cubs (59-103 to 87-74-1)
1962-63 Cubs (59-103 to 82-80)
1961-62 Phillies (47-107 to 81-80)

The highest win total among these teams belongs to the 1967 Cubs and 1989 Orioles, who each won 87 games after losing 100-plus the prior season. The largest year-over-year increase in wins belongs to the 1962 Phillies, who went from 47 wins the previous season to 81 the next, representing an increase of 34 wins.

espn.com

Edited 17 hours ago17 hr by caulfield12

https://www.ballparksavvy.com/baseballs-19-greatest-underdog-stories/

1914

In last place on July 4th, the Boston Braves made an astonishing 68-19 run to win the pennant and sweep the Athletics in the World Series. “The greatest comeback in baseball history,” proclaimed Baseball Magazine, showcasing the power of persistence.

Edited 17 hours ago17 hr by caulfield12

I would say at the very least its during my baseball viewing memory going back through the 80s.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.ballparksavvy.com/baseballs-19-greatest-underdog-stories/

1914

In last place on July 4th, the Boston Braves made an astonishing 68-19 run to win the pennant and sweep the Athletics in the World Series. “The greatest comeback in baseball history,” proclaimed Baseball Magazine, showcasing the power of persistence.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.ballparksavvy.com/baseballs-19-greatest-underdog-stories/

1914

In last place on July 4th, the Boston Braves made an astonishing 68-19 run to win the pennant and sweep the Athletics in the World Series. “The greatest comeback in baseball history,” proclaimed Baseball Magazine, showcasing the power of persistence.

Some baseball historians thought that the 1914 World Series won by the Braves was fixed. Connie Mack broke up his As team after the series. Some people thought he broke up the team because the players threw the World Series.

2 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Some baseball historians thought that the 1914 World Series won by the Braves was fixed. Connie Mack broke up his As team after the series. Some people thought he broke up the team because the players threw the World Series.

https://jacobpomrenke.com/black-sox/gambling-in-the-deadball-era/

The 83 White Sox run was something very cool and not as fully improbable as this year. How they ended up running away with that division was crazy.

This new pope guy be makin miracles happen in year 1

The 83 White Sox went on a tear during the second half. I'd like to mention the 72 White Sox who had finished 2nd in their division behind the Extremely talented Athletics two years after losing 106 games in 1970.

17 minutes ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

No comment was the perfect answer lmao

3 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Some baseball historians thought that the 1914 World Series won by the Braves was fixed. Connie Mack broke up his As team after the series. Some people thought he broke up the team because the players threw the World Series.

Did that ever take me down a Wikipedia rabbit hole.

33 minutes ago, Quin said:

No comment was the perfect answer lmao

As well as the smile on his face like he knows something and you don't.

16.4 fWAR improvement from the position players. Went from 3rd to last in 2025 to 5th best in 2026. And mostly on the backs of guys under 27. Really impressive from Getz and Will gets credit too for leading all the youngsters. We could have folded at numerous points in the 2nd half, never did.

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

16.4 fWAR improvement from the position players. Went from 3rd to last in 2025 to 5th best in 2026. And mostly on the backs of guys under 27. Really impressive from Getz and Will gets credit too for leading all the youngsters. We could have folded at numerous points in the 2nd half, never did.

The 18.6 fWAR improvement from the team as a whole is 3rd in the 21st century. Behind 27.5 fWAR from Boston in 2013 and 21 fWAR from Kansas City in 2024.

2 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

The 83 White Sox run was something very cool and not as fully improbable as this year. How they ended up running away with that division was crazy.

8 games under .500 in late May, those last 4 months of 1983 was the best baseball the Sox have played in my lifetime, they were almost unbeatable.

2 hours ago, Melton1972 said:

The 83 White Sox went on a tear during the second half. I'd like to mention the 72 White Sox who had finished 2nd in their division behind the Extremely talented Athletics two years after losing 106 games in 1970.

The big turnaround happened in 1971 when they improved by 23 games, though they had a losing 79-83 record it was a really fun year with new manager Chuck Tanner, Bill Melton leading the league in homers and Wilbur Wood becoming a starting pitcher and winning 22 games. We picked up Dick Allen in 1972 and came close to winning the division, if Bill Melton hadn’t missed the last 4 months after a back injury we probably would have won the division.

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by The Mighty Mite

I think there's a lot of hyperbole around this aspect.
The 24 team was terrible, but was really a 50ish win team. And it's not just bad luck: it was a fluke that so many players had just awful years, even for them. And a reason that 2024 team was so terrible was Hahn really did a good job in July 2023 clearing the 26 man and unloading a lot of riffraff right before he got severed. Not much was left to field a team for 2024 but it accelerated the rebuild.
25 was closer to a 70 win team.
So we improve by 15 or so games. Unusual, remarkable, but not historic.