2010 PECOTA

[knightni]

With a light hitting LF, no DH, and question marks at 3B, CF, and the bench when it comes to production, I can see 79 wins again.

[ThunderBolt]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1495

 

They recognize and admit that there are problems, and will be trying to correct them.

God willing, the White Sox are doing the same.

[caulfield12]

A lot should go to Herm and our training staff too. I think we often forget what an incredible boon they are to our organization. We must be constantly beating time played predictions because as a whole the Sox are exceptional at limiting DL trips and keeping necessary ones minimum length

 

 

It is a BIT amusing how 90% of the credit goes to KW, Hermie and Don Cooper and about 10% goes to Guillen/Cora/Baines/Walker, etc.

 

 

[everafan]

Well they did get the 2007 prediction right on the money.

 

Actually, although they got the record right they were far from on the money on player projections. They predicted that the offense would be good and the pitching would be horrible. The opposite happened so they lucked into that projection.

[The Ginger Kid]

... all is NOT well

have faith.

 

I did like to see that Reinsdorf wants to get rid of the DH or at worst, adopt it for both leagues (never happen). It was a gimmick and it needs to go away. I say this after arguing in favor of it for years.

[scenario]

Well they did get the 2007 prediction right on the money.

 

The funny part about that is that the Sox, according to Bill James, had something like 7-8 regulars underperform their career averages by 20% or more... an occurrence which has only happened to 5 teams in the last 25 years. In other words, 2007 was a perfect storm of individual underperformance creating a situation which is sort of like the baseball equivalent of getting hit by lightning.

 

So anybody claiming they "knew" the Sox were only going to win 72 games that year... and suggesting that their system is accurate because they predicted it... is full of s***.

 

Edited January 30, 2010 by scenario

[ScottyDo]

have faith.

 

I did like to see that Reinsdorf wants to get rid of the DH or at worst, adopt it for both leagues (never happen). It was a gimmick and it needs to go away. I say this after arguing in favor of it for years.

Not that I want this to devolve into a DH/no-DH argument, but I'm VERY glad I got to see Jim Thome bat the last few years rather than Jose Contreras and the ilk. From a pure entertainment standpoint, I think the DH is great.

[Quin]

love youre avatar, have the plat DVRd just because of stacey kings call. I want Stacey to guest broadcast a sox game with Hawk. "Someone pull Verlander aside and tell him who this kid is"

 

 

I want to see it. So very badly, I want to see that.

[Wanne]

love youre avatar, have the plat DVRd just because of stacey kings call. I want Stacey to guest broadcast a sox game with Hawk. "Someone pull Verlander aside and tell him who this kid is"

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jmiiR4hjPY...player_embedded for those who havent seen it

 

 

 

back to the white sox.......i believe all the points i make are valid, read em.

 

I was at that game with my son right behind the Bulls bench...it was SICK!!!

[OldSmoky2]

I don't see how the pitching won't be better this year. Floyd and Danks are coming into what should be their prime, Mark will be Mark and Peavy, in my mind, is the first true ace we've had since McDowell. Who knows what we'll get from Freddy, but he should be OK as a number 5 and there's a good chance he'll be better than average in that role.

Bullpen projections are a roll of the dice, but this pen should be more consistent than what we've had the past few years. Having more good starts means Carrasco won't be missed as much, though I'd still rather have him than not, and there is proven experience out there in the guys we have. Putz staying healthy is important, and I assume they've checked him out enough to think he will. Pena and Williams will probably be what they were last year, which isn't always lights out but also isn't bad if you have three guys out there behind them (Putz, Thornton and Jenks) who are good. And I'm not counting on much from Linebrink, but there is at least some past performance there to suggest that he might be better than last year. Either way, he's not the key to our pen.

And the defense is so much better. I wish Rios had hit better late last year, and I think he'll get back to his career numbers this year. It's not like he only had one good year before last September. But it was really refreshing to see guys hit fly balls deep to center late last year, then look out there and see a centerfielder in a Sox uniform casually waiting for it near the wall. I'd come to believe that only happened when we hit them to Torii Hunter. Pierre will catch balls Pods missed and CQ will be better in right than JD was by last year.

Like most fans, I'd rather have a Morneau or Fielder at DH, but I don't think it's written in stone that Kotsay/Jones/Vizquel is our DH for the whole season. KW's recent comments suggest that he's not completely convinced that Ozzie is right about that situation, just that he's happy enough with the rest of the team to let Oz try it his way. If, and as soon as, it becomes obvious that the lineup needs a big bopper, I think KW will pull the trigger pretty quickly, and in this market there should be some good options available that will be well within the Sox's budget and ability to acquire.

[greg775]

And the defense is so much better.

 

I enjoyed your post, Smokey, but don't know if I agree with this statement. You think our infield defense is acceptable?

[OldSmoky2]

I enjoyed your post, Smokey, but don't know if I agree with this statement. You think our infield defense is acceptable?

 

I think it'll be OK. Beckham should be pretty good at second and Teahen should be competent at third, though not great. I think Beckham will be in a more natural position at second than at third. Granted, we'll see how he adjusts to making the turn on DPs. And I'm hoping Alexei matures a bit and benefits from Vizquel being there to mentor him. Ozzie's right, I think; Alexei can be a very good shortstop if he just cuts down on the inexplicable bad throws.

But I guess I base saying that our defense will be better more on the outfield. CQ/Pods in left, Pods/Wise in center and JD in right was just not very good. Pierre has no arm, but then Pods didn't either; at least Pierre gets to the balls he ought to catch and doesn't look like a deer in the headlights out there sometimes. CQ says right is his natural position and seems to be excited to be out there. And Rios is a bonafide MLB centerfielder, a vast improvement over what we've had the last few years. Plus when Ozzie wants to play with the line-up, Jones and Vizquel are very solid defensive players.

Overall, it may not be all Gold Glove, but I really think it'll be a good bit better than last year.

[chunk23]

They corrected the PECOTA projections. Sox now projected to take 2nd at 80-82, and with significantly fewer runs scored.

[ThunderBolt]

They corrected the PECOTA projections. Sox now projected to take 2nd at 80-82, and with significantly fewer runs scored.

Can't say i'm suprised. Every projection i see has this as a two-team race with the Sox struggling to put up runs.

[chw42]

They corrected the PECOTA projections. Sox now projected to take 2nd at 80-82, and with significantly fewer runs scored.

 

And 60 less runs given up.

Edited January 30, 2010 by chw42

[elrockinMT]

How much have we typically outperformed PECOTA? Wasn't it by like 2-3 games on average, or more if you excluded 2007 where we vasltly underplayed it?

 

 

If that's so then this is only a .500 club at best in 2010

[elrockinMT]

With a light hitting LF, no DH, and question marks at 3B, CF, and the bench when it comes to production, I can see 79 wins again.

 

 

They are projecting only one team barely above the break even point in the AL Central

[witesoxfan]

They are projecting only one team barely above the break even point in the AL Central

 

Projections and predictions are worth as much as the paper they're written on.

[chunk23]

They are projecting only one team barely above the break even point in the AL Central

 

The AL West and East have a lot of talent right now. The central could be really bad. Like NL central from a few years ago bad.

[MattZakrowski]

So the latest recalculation has a 3 way tie at 80-82 between the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers, FWIW.

[Dick Allen]

So the latest recalculation has a 3 way tie at 80-82 between the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers, FWIW.

I think you should move away from the projected record and just go to the point their system thinks the 3 ALC teams are in a dead heat. I think that projection is base on everyone and everything performing to the exact Pecota projection. They know that isn't going to happen.I don't think anyone at BP actually thinks there will be no teams over .500 in the central division. I don't think they think anyone will win 90-100 games either, but it can happen.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Dick Allen

[chw42]

Lawl, Orlando Hudson made the Twins worse?

[Quin]

Lawl, Orlando Hudson made the Twins worse?

 

Orber Morerno gave us a boost.