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Dave Cameron on Kenny Williams' style


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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 04:32 PM)
That article kinda sucked. How he can say we're getting zero contributions from the farm (Sale, Jones, etc etc) and Internationally (Ramirez, Viciedo) is beyond me. Dude needs to do his homework instead of just churning out a timely "let's all suck KW's dick" article.

 

Love me some KW, and he's definitely on fire.

Amen brother

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 05:58 PM)
As somebody who frequents fangraphs regularly...they don't think much of homegrown relievers. Just saying.

 

...Nor should you seeing as how relievers are pitchers who couldn't start for a multitude of reasons. Are they nice pieces to have? Of course. But give me 1 impact bat over 7 relievers any damn day.

 

It's pretty embarrassing that Sox fans keep running around yelling "see, our farm system doesn't suck that bad! Look at all these rookie relievers!!!" (Not saying you're doing this J4L...just speaking in generalities here).

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QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 11:05 PM)
...Nor should you seeing as how relievers are pitchers who couldn't start for a multitude of reasons. Are they nice pieces to have? Of course. But give me 1 impact bat over 7 relievers any damn day.

 

It's pretty embarrassing that Sox fans keep running around yelling "see, our farm system doesn't suck that bad! Look at all these rookie relievers!!!" (Not saying you're doing this J4L...just speaking in generalities here).

 

They might not have figured out how to quantify their value statistically yet, but there is no denying that the money you can save as a GM if you can grow your own relievers is very valuable. With closers getting 8 figure deals for 3/4 years, paying your closer half a million dollars a year is a huge win for a franchise.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 31, 2012 -> 09:01 AM)
Look at how much Dotel, MacDougal and Linebrink cost us salary-wise.

 

Of course, we had to "rescue" the pen with Myers, but they shed Ohman and Frasor and have been able to use that money in other places.

We had to "Rescue" the pen because the highly paid guy in the bullpen, Crain, got hurt.

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He's referring to acquiring talent without giving up talent.

 

He stated the deals were not w/o risk.

 

Well, again, his entire premise and the examples he's laying out is that Kenny always "buys low". That may be the case with Youk, Quintana and possibly Liriano. But the author uses Peavy and Rios as examples too. That's just plain wrong. Taking on $60 million worth of salary reamining on Rios' contract and $50+ million on Peavy's contract is hardly buying low when you consider that $110 million could have been used in other places. Just because Kenny didn't give up players when he took those guys on, doesn't mean he bought low. He essentially gave up acquiring future players with those two acquisitions.

 

My experience is that the guys that write at FanGraphs are out of work college kids.

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QUOTE (Brian26 @ Jul 31, 2012 -> 08:35 AM)
Well, again, his entire premise and the examples he's laying out is that Kenny always "buys low". That may be the case with Youk, Quintana and possibly Liriano. But the author uses Peavy and Rios as examples too. That's just plain wrong. Taking on $60 million worth of salary reamining on Rios' contract and $50+ million on Peavy's contract is hardly buying low when you consider that $110 million could have been used in other places. Just because Kenny didn't give up players when he took those guys on, doesn't mean he bought low. He essentially gave up acquiring future players with those two acquisitions.

 

My experience is that the guys that write at FanGraphs are out of work college kids.

When you acquire a former CY winner and an All Star by simply picking up their salary, it's the definition of buying low.

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QUOTE (Brian26 @ Jul 31, 2012 -> 08:35 AM)
Well, again, his entire premise and the examples he's laying out is that Kenny always "buys low". That may be the case with Youk, Quintana and possibly Liriano. But the author uses Peavy and Rios as examples too. That's just plain wrong. Taking on $60 million worth of salary reamining on Rios' contract and $50+ million on Peavy's contract is hardly buying low when you consider that $110 million could have been used in other places. Just because Kenny didn't give up players when he took those guys on, doesn't mean he bought low. He essentially gave up acquiring future players with those two acquisitions.

 

My experience is that the guys that write at FanGraphs are out of work college kids.

He's saying "buys low" in the context of talent given back, not resources as a whole.

 

The purpose of the article is to shed light on the fact that despite having one of the most barren systems in the League, Williams manages to add talented players to help his Club. He doesn't say he works magic, just that maybe there is more than one way to skin a cat.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 31, 2012 -> 08:03 AM)
We had to "Rescue" the pen because the highly paid guy in the bullpen, Crain, got hurt.

Even still, when you look at some of the expenditures committed to bullpens across the League, there is no doubt that having an influx of young, cost-controlled effective arms can save you quite a bit of money.

 

It the grand scheme of things, less resources committed to the bullpen, and therefore the pitching staff overall, allows for more money committed to other areas.

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Few general managers balance the benefits and costs of in-season trades quite like Ken Williams of the White Sox. Prospects surrendered in July deals, with few exceptions, seldom fulfill their potential. Most grow into complementary players, if they make it all. On the other hand, veteran acquisitions typically return expected value, even if the cost in terms of salary and prospect assets seems steep at the time. For Williams and the White Sox, the benefit of making the playoffs for the first time since 2008 would offset the costs associated with trading talent from a farm system that ranks among the shallowest in the game.

 

Winning the American League Central would give Chicago its best chance to make a deep playoff run. So even with his White Sox holding a 2 1/2 game advantage on the Tigers heading into the home stretch, Williams completed his third summer trade, this time acquiring 28-year-old lefthander Francisco Liriano from the Twins. Chicago sent lefthander Pedro Hernandez and shortstop Eduardo Escobar, a pair of modest, 23-year-old prospects, to Minnesota.

 

The White Sox join the Angels, who traded for Zack Greinke, and the Tigers, who dealt for Anibal Sanchez, as AL playoff contenders who have reinforced their rotations through trade. Already this summer Williams had dealt for Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis, who has batted .273/.387/.495 through 27 games with the White Sox, and Astros closer Brett Myers, who has made four scoreless relief appearances since joining Chicago last weekend. (You can assess the cost in talent yourself at Trade Central.)

 

Perhaps Liriano will be subject to similar small-sample success as Youkilis and Myers, because he's been anything but predictable this season. In fact, the White Sox roughed up Liriano in his last outing on July 23 (seven runs, seven hits, three homers in 2 2/3 innings), but in six starts from May 30-June 25 he struck out 40 in 37 1/3 innings while logging a 2.41 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. Liriano has reached those heights infrequently throughout his career, but if matched up against the lefty-heavy offenses of the AL Central-rival Indians, Royals and Twins down the stretch, then he's capable of big things during his final 10 or so starts. Lefty batters have batted .195/.287/.286 with one homer versus Liriano this season, which is in line with his career .593 OPS allowed to lefties.

 

A free agent after the season, Liriano's wildly-fluctuating results made it unlikely that the Twins would have made him the qualifying contract offer necessary to receive draft pick compensation. So while neither Hernandez nor Escobar project to be future impact players, each possesses at least one plus tool and can help the Twins in their organizational rebuild. That's certainly better than nothing.

 

baseballamerica.com/tradecentral

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Here's a counter-argument (using the Royals' pen) why having so many good young relievers is another version of Moneyball...exploiting a new market inefficiency, largely because of their horrible starting pitching

 

 

 

The reluctant revolution will be these Royals’ lasting legacy. Our own miniature Moneyball situation is playing out almost every day this summer now, the Royals trying to get outs in a way no team in baseball history has ever dared.

 

They planned most of this, an interchangeable group of relievers capable of throwing 95-mph fastballs for any matchup against any team on any day, but already the team’s vision of building baseball’s most effective bullpen is being stretched beyond any precedent in the sport’s long history by a starting rotation that right now is just Bruce Chen and a whole lot of live batting practice.

 

This isn’t what general manager Dayton Moore wants for his team, of course. Moore grew up in baseball watching Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine build Hall of Fame careers in Atlanta. Moore always judges teams based largely on their rotations.

 

He gave Gil Meche the largest free-agent contract in Royals history. He likes to draft pitchers first, pitchers second, and once that’s all taken care of he likes to draft a few more pitchers. The fruits of that philosophy are being at least delayed by an outbreak of Tommy John surgeries to the team’s top pitching prospects.

But you can’t argue with economics. So once the Royals looked at what they could realistically afford, Moore did something entirely out of character and shifted his focus away from starters and toward the bullpen.

 

The result is the Royals are using their bullpen more than any other team in baseball history.

Again, not all of this is by design. The starters have been mostly awful. But as it turns out, to whatever extent the Royals are shifting their focus and resources to the bullpen, they may be pioneers of baseball’s next frontier.

 

 

 

So far, 14 men have made 190 relief appearances for the Royals. They are rookies and veterans, skinny and fat, first-round draft picks and unsigned free agents, from as close as Parkville and as far away as Venezuela. One of them made the All-Star team last year. One of them is a backup outfielder.

Two of them fit into a pair of another one’s enormous pants.

 

These men have thrown 222 innings of relief, by far the most in baseball and on pace for nearly 30 more innings than the previous “record,” set by the 2003 Rangers.

 

And while most of the rest of the team has underachieved, the bullpen is the biggest reason the Royals have played above .500 the last six weeks.

Now, one more time so there’s no excuses or misunderstandings: The Royals would prefer not to break the Rangers’ record.

 

No matter what else, having your relievers throw so many innings is a clear indication that something’s wrong, like a football team whose cornerbacks have the most tackles. The Royals sometimes carry two long relievers, and they’re wearing out I-29 sending tired arms to Omaha in exchange for fresh ones.

But the Royals’ plan on asking more of their bullpen — in an ideal world, with competent starters, they’d have around 35 fewer relief innings and rank around third or fourth in the AL — is an inspired move.

 

This all comes down to money, as most things do. Relief pitchers are cheaper than starters, more plentiful than starters and more replaceable than starters. Just think what the Royals bullpen would be with a healthy Joakim Soria, for instance.

The Royals won’t be able to afford Cole Hamels this winter. They’ll only be contenders for Zack Greinke if they can use familiarity and comfort to their advantage.

But they can afford a top-level bullpen, and in a baseball world where salaries for starters are rising along with the overall usage of relievers, this is not only smart but absolutely necessary for the Royals to compete going forward.

 

 

CC Sabathia is baseball’s highest-paid starting pitcher with a contract that averages $24.4 million per year. Mariano Rivera is the highest-paid reliever at $15 million.

 

Advanced metrics indicate the Red Sox had the AL’s best bullpen last year, and their top eight relievers made just under $24 million (most of it by Jonathan Papelbon and Bobby Jenks).

 

The same advanced metrics indicate the White Sox had the best rotation, and their top five starters made $34.3 million (that doesn’t include $16 million to Jake Peavy, who made 18 starts).

 

That’s indicative of the baseball climate. Starting pitchers made an average of $4.9 million last year, compared with $1.9 million for relievers. Accounting for a roster of five starters and eight relievers, that’s vaguely in line with how many outs each group gets.

But the Royals’ place in baseball means they’re in an especially good position to take advantage of a market inefficiency, partly because the relievers’ pay scale is much more top-heavy than starters’. That means young and resilient bullpen arms are available at basement rates.

For instance, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera and Louis Coleman are each making less than $500,000. Jonathan Sánchez and Luke Hochevar are making a combined $8.7 million.

This is the Royals’ loophole. Even on their record-setting pace of reliever usage, the Royals are paying more for each inning from the bullpen than they are the rotation. But the Royals’ spending level is much more likely to buy good relievers: witness a 5.08 ERA from the rotation through Friday and 2.99 from the bullpen.

As the Royals wait — and hope — for prospects like Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery to make an impact in the rotation, they have a steady stack of effective relievers already getting outs. That’s generally how it will go, because relief pitchers are usually better early in their careers compared with starters, and injuries are easier to compensate for.

 

One of the unmistakable trends in baseball over the years is heavier use of bullpens. And even if the Royals got to this extreme place by accident, it’s a place they need to stay.

This is one place they’re ahead of the trend.Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/06/09/36501...l#storylink=cpy

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 07:36 PM)
Very nice. I'm trying to be positive because I like where the Sox are at, at the moment. But KW didn't go from being below average to above in 4 weeks.

That's right. He's been above average the whole time.

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I think its been said before by Baseball Prospectus that aside from that one year, where they guessed our record exactly, that Kenny Williams basically operates on a different plane of existence from them. They dont really know how or why, but predicting the White Sox with him controlling the roster has been almost impossible.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 07:36 PM)
Very nice. I'm trying to be positive because I like where the Sox are at, at the moment. But KW didn't go from being below average to above in 4 weeks.

 

It is amazing what happens when you have a manager who is willing to optimize the guys you bring in...

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 1, 2012 -> 08:12 AM)
Can Coop fix YOUK?

 

We seem like we have the streakiest hitters in baseball, but I'm sure fans of all teams feel that way.

 

Too bad we don't play the Red Sox again, to get him heated up. OTOH, we're 2-6 against them, so maybe not such a great idea after all.

 

As long as Youk is working deep into counts, I am fine with his ABs.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 31, 2012 -> 10:41 PM)
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...Y3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

 

For some reason, the acquisitions of Myers and Liriano only rate 9th on this list, behind Broxton and ahead of Ichiro.

 

Stupid.

 

It was also behind the Pirates trading for Wandy Rodriguez, Gaby Sanchez, and Travis Snider. What a joke.

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QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Aug 1, 2012 -> 09:57 AM)
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

I like #WhiteSox deadline deals. Liriano quality start last night. Myers has been good. Youkilis back close to his career norms.

Youkilis has been struggling lately, but still positive. It was interesting last night Hawk mentioned Cooper hasn't done anything with Liriano yet. Thought it would have been too much after just getting traded and facing his former team right away. The guy is a tremendous talent. His slider can be unhittable. He made Mauer look like a fool, and Mauer has probably seen his stuff more than anyone. If they can get him to have a little bit more command, he's the best pitcher traded at the deadline.

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Comment From RandallRandall: ]

Is Ken Williams looking like the smartest GM in the MLB right now?

Wednesday August 1, 2012 3:25 Randall

 

3:26 Ben Nicholson-Smith: Williams was one the game's most resourceful GMs, trading from a system that didn't include highly-regarded prospects to upgrade his lineup, bullpen and rotation.

 

 

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QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Aug 1, 2012 -> 09:34 PM)
3:26 Ben Nicholson-Smith: Williams was one the game's most resourceful GMs, trading from a system that didn't include highly-regarded prospects to upgrade his lineup, bullpen and rotation.

 

He damn well better be resourceful. Chris Getz is the second best hitter that he's drafted since 2001, and most of the posters on this board have better plate discipline than Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo.

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