NorthSideSox72 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 We do this every March. SoxTalk on net has actually been pretty decent at this, better than many of the statistical models and "experts". Will SoxTalk do it again? How many wins? Answer poll and discuss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 12:34 PM) We do this every March. SoxTalk on net has actually been pretty decent at this, better than many of the statistical models and "experts". Will SoxTalk do it again? How many wins? Answer poll and discuss... I'm going with 86. Don't think it's enough to win the division but they have a pretty good team based around pitching and defense. These types of teams tend to win more than the talent shows over the long haul of a 162 game season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 (edited) If 83-86 were a choice, I'd pick that. 85 is my pick. A few wins short of the second wild card. We need 50 wins on July 8th to have a chance, because it's ridiculous to think this team will be a second half team while playing the Tigers 19 times. Edited March 15, 2013 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyAcosta41 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm mildly optimistic about this year. Contrary to some around here, I didn't see last year as an "everything went right" year. Konerko was a shell of himself second-half, not because of age or regression, but because of an accumulation of injuries (the now repaired wrist in particular). Beckham can and should do better; so can Alexei; so can Dunn (perhaps reaching career averages in avg and OBP). The Keppinger/Gillaspie tandem at 3B should easily far exceed last year's overall pathetic third base numbers. I personally chuckle when everyone goes on and on about how much offense we lost with AJ. I loved AJ as an overall player, mostly for his intangibles. But the dude had been blasted forever for NOT being "all that" as an offensive catcher, goes out and has a career year in his mid 30's (and I applaud him for that and actually don't really wonder about it), and suddenly we default into saying that we've given up his numbers (as if his 2012 numbers were anything near a certainty in 2013???). If we had signed AJ I would have worried about a drop in catcher's offensive output from last year. Good chance for me -- overall; ALL offensive numbers taken into account -- the overall 2013 offensive numbers put up between AJ and Flowers won't be anything of any significance (some pros/cons to the one, other pros/cons to the other). And the pitching is talented with Sale/Peavy, plus deep elsewhere (I don't think they'll throw John Danks out there forever if he's getting blasted). For me: 50% likely -- 85-88 wins 20% likely -- 89-92 wins (will need good health and some luck in the form of other divisional foes underperforming) 20% likely -- 81-84 wins (if we have more injuries than we're expecting) 10% likely -- under 80 wins (if the injury bug hits hard -- and it could, given some of the questions we're dealing with) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I am going with 88-74. I really like the pitching staff this year, which of course means Sale and Peavy will have surgery by Memorial Day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm going 89-92. We finish the season off and we see better seasons from Dunn, Konerko and a just-as-good season from Rios. We won't give away 5+ wins early via experimentation with the closer position and the starting staff does better. Floyd bounces back to normal and Danks posts ~4.00 ERA with both Sale and Peavy pitching at a very high level. Somebody will take time off with an injury and Hector will pitch fantastically. Flowers survives and bats about .220 with 20 HR and 175 K's, Beckham gets up to the elusive .250 BA mark and hits 15 HRs again. Dayan steps up, but not a total breakout yet. Will have another crazy month at the plate that makes us hard to beat like he did early last season. Kep and Gillaspie make a decent tandem and we get a nice gain from that position compared to last year. Versus last year: Starting pitching - gain. Sale and Peavy not quite as good, but Danks shows flashes of his old self and Gavin returns to career norms. Any injuries are negated by Hector and maybe Simon Castro if things get that dicey. Bullpen - gain. Some numbers will probably look similar, but our closer position will have more stability and it won't cost us so many games compared to early in the year last season. Catcher - wash. T-Flow's offense will not be quite what we got from AJ, but his defense will make it up. First base - gain. PK will do better this year with a healthy wrist. DH - wash. I think there is much room for improvement for Dunn, but I'm not putting my money on it yet. Might lose time to the injuries that normally just hamper his performance. Second base - wash. I predict some improvement from Gordo, but not a significant amount. Shortstop - gain. I think his peripherals will look better with similar 70+ RBI production and excellent defense as always. Early season slump won't last so long. Third base - major gain. Doesn't need much explanation. Left field - gain. Dayan takes a significant but not huge step forward in his progression. Center field - loss. De Aza regresses a bit, misses time with injury. Will get a thrill from a guy like Mitchell during that stint but the overall contribution will be a drop off. Right field - wash. Rios will drop some in peripherals but gain in run production from the 3 spot in the lineup. Management - gain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Call me crazy, but I think this could be a 90 win team therefore I chose 89-92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This team won 85 games last year after losing a 3 win pitcher and having the worst 3b in baseball. For those 2, I add 6 wins. I think the bullpen can be slightly better, and I think we'll get more out of the other starters while we're at it since they're more stretched out, but I'm only giving 1 win on that. I'm in at 92. And last year was the first year I can recall where I underestimated the number of wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFirebird Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 It is scary that we are all optimistic.....I am now feeling less optimistic. I had chosen 85-88, but I think they could hit 90 if healthy. I think they will keep it close and maybe snag a WC spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 I look at it broken down into categories: regression candidates, progression/addition candidates, injury risks and assumptions, bench, and using all that as +/- against last year… As for regression… Rios is unlikely to replicate his 2012 numbers, though since his improvement seems tied to mechanical changes, I don’t think a huge slide is likely. People talk about losing AJ, but I have to say, if you look at Flowers’ numbers when playing full time or close (minors, plus somewhat late last year) compared to AJ’s career numbers and age, I think Flowers matches AJ this season. Which is still a slide, so that is a regression most likely. Konerko had a good year, but 2nd half he was MIA. I’ll say he regresses slightly, overall. In terms of pitching… I don’t see any starters likely to regress if healthy. In the pen, Thornton scares me, if he loses more velocity or control at all he can fall off a cliff fast. Progression… 3B will likely be vastly improved over last year. Alexei has his worst year at the plate, and seems to be stronger in spring with sitting further back in the box, so I think he improves. Viciedo is still figuring it out, he’s the same guy at worst, but more likely improves. I’m going to guess Beckham is the same guy, same with Dunn. Pitching-wise, getting Danks back if he’s healthy is big. Floyd has ceiling room, but always does it seems. The young bullpen arms like Reed and Jones should get better. Crain and Lindstrom are what they are. Peavy could be better or worse, I’ll go with same. Injuries… on offense, De Aza scares me a little and Mitchell isn’t really ready IMO, so there is some risk there. Sale, Peavy and definitely Danks all have risk, and I’m guessing one of them goes down for at least a period of time. Good news there is, I like Axelrod and more so Castro, so the drop-off shouldn’t be TOO huge. And the Sox seem to just be good at avoiding a lot of injuries. Bench… Gimenez I think will be a good backup, and Wise is Wise. Gillaspie is likely to get a spot, and I think he’s better than a lot of the alternatives from last year, assuming he gets playing time. The backup middle IF will likely be pretty bad, but no worse than last year. This was a slightly above average offense last year, and I think with the +/-, they are similar or slightly better. Pitching-wise, I think they will be markedly better. Defensively, they only changed C and 3B – I think C improves a lot defensively, and 3B should be similar to Youk, maybe a slight drop-off. Bench is slightly better. One wildcard – the schedule. The increased IL play should help them a bit, but KC and CLE have gotten better, so that may shave things a bit. I give that plus 6 wins without the wildcard factor mentioned above, take 2 away for that, which gives them 89. Will be marginal to make the post-season, but definitely possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 QUOTE (BFirebird @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) It is scary that we are all optimistic.....I am now feeling less optimistic. I had chosen 85-88, but I think they could hit 90 if healthy. I think they will keep it close and maybe snag a WC spot. It is still a very young thread...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 01:52 PM) It is still a very young thread...... Indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 (edited) 81-81 .500 record Edited March 15, 2013 by Soxfest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Workload on Sale and Peavy from last year I think makes it difficult not to project a step back in production from those two. I think Danks will be in and out of the rotation and won't be fully healed until 2014. Given that and and an aging offensive core I say they'll win 78. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think it will be a tight race, but I have us winning the division at 90-73. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 08:18 PM) I think it will be a tight race, but I have us winning the division at 90-73. So, winning the division in a 1 game playoff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 08:53 PM) So, winning the division in a 1 game playoff? Yup, against the Tigers. Just feel like it's going to be one of those years where a bunch of crazy s*** happens. Edited March 16, 2013 by Chicago White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Voted 85-88. Sox win AL Central in 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 84-78. For every guy that can break out and have a big year, we have just as many that are due for regression due to age, injuries, or whatever. In the end, I see a big jumble of mediocrity and another .500 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 (edited) I'm thinking 84-86 wins. I predicted .500 last year and they outdid that by 4 games. If they outdo my predictions this year by 4 games, I think we'll be playing in October. Edited March 16, 2013 by chw42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I predicted 85 last year and am predicting 86 this year. Look for the Sox to be a 90-win team in 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickofypres Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 (edited) 90 win team if everyone is healthy, that is the key IMO. Edited March 16, 2013 by whitesox901 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 09:22 PM) 84-78. For every guy that can break out and have a big year, we have just as many that are due for regression due to age, injuries, or whatever. In the end, I see a big jumble of mediocrity and another .500 team. Wish I'd written this because I think it sums up the frustration with the spot the Sox are currently in well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 91-71, WC spot. Sale wins 19 Peavy and Danks stay healthy. Floyd is still frustrating. Konerko wins MVP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 01:07 PM) I am going with 88-74. I really like the pitching staff this year, which of course means Sale and Peavy will have surgery by Memorial Day... Exactly what I was thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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