2015 Cubs Catch-All thread

[shysocks]

Here's each guy's wRC+ last year, then Steamer-projected wRC+ this year (no ZiPS for the Cubs yet). Obviously this is super simplistic and doesn't account for unequal plate appearances or anything else, really.

 

Pretty close either way.

 

Eaton......115 102

Melky......125 115

Abreu......165 143

LaRoche...127 116

Avisail.......98 100

Gillaspie...108 95

Sum.........738 671

 

Fowler......124 107

Coghlan....123 94

Rizzo........153 138

Castro......115 101

Soler........146 117

Montero......90 100

Sum.........751 657

 

[caulfield12]

RF - Soler

CF - Fowler/Denorfia

LF - Coghlan/Denorfia

SS - Castro

3B - Alcantara/Olt

2B - LaStella/Alcantara

1B - Rizzo

C - Montero

 

Bench: C Ross, 2B/3B Olt/LaStella, OF Denorfia

 

Then they probably break with one of Sweeney/Lake (I'd assume Sweeney) and another infielder.

 

CF Fowler

LF Coghlan

1B Rizzo

SS Castrp

RF Soler

C Montero

3B Alcantara/Olt

2B LaStella/Alcantara

 

Speaking objectively, their top six is better than ours.

 

That's IF IF IF Castro is a capable 4 hole guy. Maybe if you projected POTENTIAL and projected guys out like Bryant and even Schwarber in the middle of the line-up, then you can starting making that argument.

 

Soler's got to stay healthy and prove he can play everyday. Montero has regressed. Coghlan isn't likely to be as dangerous or as pesky.

 

Of course, if Baez and Russell are for real, your middle infield solidifies and then you can plug Bryant in at 3B or potentially he moves to the OF and you can fit Baez, Russell and Castro together as some sort of infield combination.

 

[caulfield12]

Sure, but my point was they are better 1-6 so I'm not sure what your point is. The back of our lineup still sucks. We are a better team than the Cubs because of our pitching staff.

 

 

Top 3, definitely. Back end of the rotation, nobody knows exactly what each team will end up with.

 

But sure, Quintana vs. Hammel, that's a pretty easy one. Then you have Hendricks and Wood/E. Jackson/Wada at the back end. Hendricks was REALLY solid last season, but it was unexpected and nobody knows if it's repeatable, just like Noesi's success with the Sox (which wasn't as good as the numbers Hendricks put up, albeit in the NL).

 

Although quite a few Kool-Aid drinkers in Cubbieland would tell you they prefer Arrieta now to Samardzija.

Edited January 20, 2015 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

Compelling.

 

Adam Eaton vs. Dexter Fowler - Adam Eaton definitely the better player all things considered (defense, contract) but Fowler might be slightly better offensively.

Melky Cabrera vs. Chris Coghlan - Coghlan had a great year but I'll give Cabrera the nod here.

Jose Abreu vs. Anthony Rizzo - They're very similar. I think Abreu definitely has a chance to better. Call it a slight win for Abreu.

Adam LaRoche vs. Starlin Castro - LaRoche is better.

Avi Garica vs. Jorge Soler - I'll take Soler quite easily.

Conor Gillaspie vs. Miguel Monterp - Montero has more power, more OBP and BABIPs normalizing favor Montero heavily.

 

Haha sorry I saw "Cubs 1-6 is better than Sox" and then saw Coghlan penciled into the 2 spot and replied.

 

What about power and damage? Conservative XBH projections:

 

1. Fowler 40 / Eaton 40

2. Coghlan 45 / Cabrera 55

3. Rizzo 65 / Abreu 75

4. Castro 50 / LaRoche 55

5. Soler ? / Garcia ?

6. Montero 40 / Gillaspie 35

 

I feel like I was generous to the cubs' players (best case scenario) and not so much with our guys.

If we used best case for Sox players it looks even more lopsided. What do you think of these projections?

[LDF]

Haha sorry I saw "Cubs 1-6 is better than Sox" and then saw Coghlan penciled into the 2 spot and replied.

 

What about power and damage? Conservative XBH projections:

 

1. Fowler 40 / Eaton 40

2. Coghlan 45 / Cabrera 55

3. Rizzo 65 / Abreu 75

4. Castro 50 / LaRoche 55

5. Soler ? / Garcia ?

6. Montero 40 / Gillaspie 35

 

I feel like I was generous to the cubs' players (best case scenario) and not so much with our guys.

If we used best case for Sox players it looks even more lopsided. What do you think of these projections?

 

 

yous guys with the advance stats really make this comparison really interesting reading. thanks.

[witesoxfan]

Haha sorry I saw "Cubs 1-6 is better than Sox" and then saw Coghlan penciled into the 2 spot and replied.

 

What about power and damage? Conservative XBH projections:

 

1. Fowler 40 / Eaton 40

2. Coghlan 45 / Cabrera 55

3. Rizzo 65 / Abreu 75

4. Castro 50 / LaRoche 55

5. Soler ? / Garcia ?

6. Montero 40 / Gillaspie 35

 

I feel like I was generous to the cubs' players (best case scenario) and not so much with our guys.

If we used best case for Sox players it looks even more lopsided. What do you think of these projections?

 

At the end of the day, I think the Sox and Cubs are in remarkably similar situations at the MLB level. We can compare all we want to, but the one thing that seems to separate the two teams is the top of the rotation. Both teams appear to be fairly promising next year.

[southsider2k5]

At the end of the day, I think the Sox and Cubs are in remarkably similar situations at the MLB level. We can compare all we want to, but the one thing that seems to separate the two teams is the top of the rotation. Both teams appear to be fairly promising next year.

 

The big difference is that the Sox talent is WAY more proven than the Cubs.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The big difference is that the Sox talent is WAY more proven than the Cubs.

 

Right. I remember having this conversation back in the fall when people were comparing the "core" of each team, and my thoughts were the Sox "core" has a higher floor, mostly because they are proven, while the Cubs "core" has a higher ceiling, but mostly because they haven't have their expectations lowered yet due to any major league failures.

 

But now that the Sox added a ton of more proven veterans, I don't really think the talent of the 2 teams is very close. Sox are a MUCH better team, in my opinion.

[Jerksticks]

Right. I remember having this conversation back in the fall when people were comparing the "core" of each team, and my thoughts were the Sox "core" has a higher floor, mostly because they are proven, while the Cubs "core" has a higher ceiling, but mostly because they haven't have their expectations lowered yet due to any major league failures.

 

But now that the Sox added a ton of more proven veterans, I don't really think the talent of the 2 teams is very close. Sox are a MUCH better team, in my opinion.

Yea i agree. They don't have anything in the pipeline that projects to be as good as our current stars. Maybe Bryant can match Abreu? I dunno. I think Abreu separates himself from Rizzo substantially this year though.

[caulfield12]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...-011454392.html

 

Rooftop owners' lawsuit heading towards Federal court

[LDF]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...-011454392.html

 

Rooftop owners' lawsuit heading towards Federal court

 

as much as i think this is a stupid lawsuit, i still hope they win against the sCrubs.

[southsider2k5]

as much as i think this is a stupid lawsuit, i still hope they win against the sCrubs.

 

The Cubs were the idiots for entering into a contract with the rooftop owners in the first place. If they hadn't been worried about getting a cut of their revenue, and thus legitimizing them as a business, they wouldn't be in this situation today.

[LDF]

The Cubs were the idiots for entering into a contract with the rooftop owners in the first place. If they hadn't been worried about getting a cut of their revenue, and thus legitimizing them as a business, they wouldn't be in this situation today.

 

thanks for providing further info in this.

[ILMOU]

Alcantara is their CF Fowler is a corner guy or 4th OF.

I'm fairly sure they see Alcantara as a super utility / platoon guy. He's never hit RHP well enough to play every day.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yea i agree. They don't have anything in the pipeline that projects to be as good as our current stars. Maybe Bryant can match Abreu? I dunno. I think Abreu separates himself from Rizzo substantially this year though.

 

 

Rizzo is younger, LH, and much better defensively though. Abreu is a monster but you have to account for that. Rizzo is a really good player. That trade value column from Jonah Keri this offseason listed them at 6/7 respectively I believe. Can't go wrong with either guy.

[Jerksticks]

Rizzo is younger, LH, and much better defensively though. Abreu is a monster but you have to account for that. Rizzo is a really good player. That trade value column from Jonah Keri this offseason listed them at 6/7 respectively I believe. Can't go wrong with either guy.

 

For sure both good players. I just think Abreu widens the gap between them in year two.

[Chisoxfn]

Rizzo is younger, LH, and much better defensively though. Abreu is a monster but you have to account for that. Rizzo is a really good player. That trade value column from Jonah Keri this offseason listed them at 6/7 respectively I believe. Can't go wrong with either guy.

Rizzo is a star. Great numbers @ 24 years of age. Although both players had their best seasons last year. Now to show ability to repeat it.

[ILMOU]

Rizzo is a star. Great numbers @ 24 years of age. Although both players had their best seasons last year. Now to show ability to repeat it.

 

Rizzo is a fine player, but I agree that Abreu will separate himself further this year.

 

Dude hit .392 in Cuba, so not his best year, just sayin'. Rizzo has struggled mightily in the past - far less likely to repeat last year, imo. His defense is excellent though.

[Jerksticks]

Rizzo is a fine player, but I agree that Abreu will separate himself further this year.

 

Dude hit .392 in Cuba, so not his best year, just sayin'. Rizzo has struggled mightily in the past - far less likely to repeat last year, imo. His defense is excellent though.

No slight to Rizzo but how's he even going to sniff .365/.565/.665?

[LittleHurt05]

Rizzo is a fine player, but I agree that Abreu will separate himself further this year.

 

Dude hit .392 in Cuba, so not his best year, just sayin'. Rizzo has struggled mightily in the past - far less likely to repeat last year, imo. His defense is excellent though.

 

The fact that Rizzo has struggled in the past makes me think it's more likely he keeps up his numbers. He is young, he came up and struggled, had to adjust and learn. Where as Abreu came into the league as an unknown, killed it, but now teams will know him better and he will have to make adjustments. Combine that with what we have seen from Puig & Cespedes, I would be shocked if Abreu puts up better numbers in 2015. (He was so good in 2014, that's not necessarily a bad thing)

[LDF]

The fact that Rizzo has struggled in the past makes me think it's more likely he keeps up his numbers. He is young, he came up and struggled, had to adjust and learn. Where as Abreu came into the league as an unknown, killed it, but now teams will know him better and he will have to make adjustments. Combine that with what we have seen from Puig & Cespedes, I would be shocked if Abreu puts up better numbers in 2015. (He was so good in 2014, that's not necessarily a bad thing)

 

you make a good point. but based on Puig and Cespedes, i am thinking the other way.

i think he will be even a better hitter, he will make the adjustments and i am more

that positive that he will work hard at it. that was his rep, working and refusing to

not to learn.

 

but dang, Rizzo is a nice prospect.

Edited January 23, 2015 by LDF

[shysocks]

Cubs ZiPS are out. Bryant projected as an immediate stud if he plays. The Baez projection is way optimistic.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-p...s-chicago-cubs/

[ILMOU]

The fact that Rizzo has struggled in the past makes me think it's more likely he keeps up his numbers. He is young, he came up and struggled, had to adjust and learn. Where as Abreu came into the league as an unknown, killed it, but now teams will know him better and he will have to make adjustments. Combine that with what we have seen from Puig & Cespedes, I would be shocked if Abreu puts up better numbers in 2015. (He was so good in 2014, that's not necessarily a bad thing)

Actually, Rizzo was lousy in his initial callup in '11, then excellent for his first half season with the Cubs in '12, then had a pretty mediocre '13, followed by an excellent 2014. More of a SF Giants pattern, and it's an "odd" year.

 

Abreu has already made the adjustments. He was late 90's Sosa in the 1st half and vintage Joey Votto in the 2nd when pitchers stopped giving him anything to hit. He's a special hitter. Rizzo is a good hitter.

Edited January 23, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[LittleHurt05]

Actually, Rizzo was lousy in his initial callup in '11, then excellent for his first half season with the Cubs in '12, then had a pretty mediocre '13, followed by an excellent 2014. More of a SF Giants pattern, and it's an "odd" year.

 

Abreu has already made the adjustments. He was late 90's Sosa in the 1st half and vintage Joey Votto in the 2nd when pitchers stopped giving him anything to hit. He's a special hitter. Rizzo is a good hitter.

 

Rizzo is 25 and hasn't reached 3 full MLB seasons, yet we are already pegging him as an every other year hitter? Ok then.

[LDF]

Actually, Rizzo was lousy in his initial callup in '11, then excellent for his first half season with the Cubs in '12, then had a pretty mediocre '13, followed by an excellent 2014. More of a SF Giants pattern, and it's an "odd" year.

 

Abreu has already made the adjustments. He was late 90's Sosa in the 1st half and vintage Joey Votto in the 2nd when pitchers stopped giving him anything to hit. He's a special hitter. Rizzo is a good hitter.

 

it is b/c of Jose A and the excitement of him as a player

that got me really pump on this group of sox players and

team.