ballz Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Why do a lot of people think he's gonna get a restructured deal with the Sox? He's a decent shortstop. He's actually above average and has a little pop in his bat. He's gonna get 12-15 million a year with somebody, believe it or not. Good for him. Rather it not be the Sox paying that. They have NO CHANCE competing in the next...at LEAST 2 YEARS... That $ goes a long way building if you're being smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panerista Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 01:38 AM) Why do a lot of people think he's gonna get a restructured deal with the Sox? He's a decent shortstop. He's actually above average and has a little pop in his bat. He's gonna get 12-15 million a year with somebody, believe it or not. He's below replacement level. He passes the eye test, but he's not actually any good. If he gets $12-$15 million, whatever GM does that should be fired on the spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakes Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 01:38 AM) Why do a lot of people think he's gonna get a restructured deal with the Sox? He's a decent shortstop. He's actually above average and has a little pop in his bat. He's gonna get 12-15 million a year with somebody, believe it or not. No. None of this is true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (shakes @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 08:30 AM) No. None of this is true. You didn't read his whole post. Believe it or not . You are in the "not" group w a sh..load of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I can't see how a 34 yo SS with declining skills and a 1WAR value is worth 12-15M per year. Asdrubal Cabrera will likely be in that range but not Alexei. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 07:42 AM) I can't see how a 34 yo SS with declining skills and a 1WAR value is worth 12-15M per year. Asdrubal Cabrera will likely be in that range but not Alexei. Not one year. That number is over 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 07:49 AM) Not one year. That number is over 2 years. Two years makes more sense but another poster said 12-15M per year which is what I was referring to. No chance Alexei is worth that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 07:42 AM) I can't see how a 34 yo SS with declining skills and a 1WAR value is worth 12-15M per year. Asdrubal Cabrera will likely be in that range but not Alexei. Cabrera won't get that much, either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Just remember this - on average, 1 WAR on the open market is worth somewhere around 7 or 8 million. And that value is skewed up by those in the age 27-31 range hitting FA for the first time. A 34-year old declining shortstop, who maybe is a 1 WAR guy (give or take here)? 6 or 7M a year should do. And the Sox should do that, with a similarly priced 2nd year option if possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 07:10 AM) He's below replacement level. He passes the eye test, but he's not actually any good. If he gets $12-$15 million, whatever GM does that should be fired on the spot. He was in 2015 but well above it other years. There are 2 types of free agents, the kind that get paid for what they have done, and the kind that get paid for what they are projected to do. I think Alexei is now in that group. I wouldn't guarantee him $12-15 million for 2 years, it also wouldn't surprise me if he was worth that amount for 2 years. Coming into 2012, people were freaking out as the Sox owed AJP $6 million. He outplayed it. I think Alexei needs a contract with a lot of incentives. If he still has gas in the tank, that is the way to get him to burn some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 07:56 AM) Cabrera won't get that much, either. I wouldn't be surprised if he did. We will find out this off season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I just don't buy this notion that Alexei went from being a very good ballplayer to a horrible one in one year's time. He was a 3.2 fWAR player in 2013 and 3.1 in 2014. I think the odds are better that he will put up something closer to that than the below replacement level he was last year. In 2015 he had by far the lowest BABIP of his career. It was just .264 compared to the .292 in 2014 and .291 lifetime. He increased his BB% and LD% in 2015 vs 2014 and lowered his K%. I think this makes him a good candidate for a bounce back year and I would be perfectly content with signing him to a one year $6-$7 million contract as a stop gap to Anderson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) I just don't buy this notion that Alexei went from being a very good ballplayer to a horrible one in one year's time. He was a 3.2 fWAR player in 2013 and 3.1 in 2014. I think the odds are better that he will put up something closer to that than the below replacement level he was last year. In 2015 he had by far the lowest BABIP of his career. It was just .264 compared to the .292 in 2014 and .291 lifetime. He increased his BB% and LD% in 2015 vs 2014 and lowered his K%. I think this makes him a good candidate for a bounce back year and I would be perfectly content with signing him to a one year $6-$7 million contract as a stop gap to Anderson. But if you're going to be replaced why wouldn't you take a guaranteed 2 or even 3 (mutual option on third) year deal with another team that definitely wants to keep you around for a minimum of two years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) I just don't buy this notion that Alexei went from being a very good ballplayer to a horrible one in one year's time. He was a 3.2 fWAR player in 2013 and 3.1 in 2014. I think the odds are better that he will put up something closer to that than the below replacement level he was last year. In 2015 he had by far the lowest BABIP of his career. It was just .264 compared to the .292 in 2014 and .291 lifetime. He increased his BB% and LD% in 2015 vs 2014 and lowered his K%. I think this makes him a good candidate for a bounce back year and I would be perfectly content with signing him to a one year $6-$7 million contract as a stop gap to Anderson. I agree he's not terrible, and I'm perplexed by those who would rather go with Saladino or Sanchez there. That said, because he had a down year and is a 34-year old shortstop, teams will be skeptical. That's why I really don't see him getting $10M/year or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 My thoughts are nothing original to what has already been said in this thread, but I am little surprised the Sox declined the option. Alexei is a much better option at SS than anyone else on the 40 man, despite being dog s*** for the first couple months of 2015. I highly doubt the Sox will look to the top of market (Desmond), with Anderson waiting in the wings. So Alexei still makes a ton of sense. Now if they think they can get him on a 1 year deal for less $, with perhaps an option for next year if Anderson doesn't continue to develop as the Sox hope - great. But I have a hard time believing Alexei won't be able to top something like a 2 year deal in excess of ~$16M, and I don't think the Sox should commit to him for two seasons. I like Alexei, but I also wouldn't be heartbroken if they go in another direction. He's been a very good, and very underrated player for the Sox during his time. I still think he is an above average ML SS, despite the numbers showing otherwise last season. But he isn't the most cerebral player, and perhaps someone with a higher baseball IQ up the middle would help the entire defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 09:15 AM) I agree he's not terrible, and I'm perplexed by those who would rather go with Saladino or Sanchez there. That said, because he had a down year and is a 34-year old shortstop, teams will be skeptical. That's why I really don't see him getting $10M/year or more. I agree, but I could see a big market team giving him a ridiculous contract, like 3/36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) I just don't buy this notion that Alexei went from being a very good ballplayer to a horrible one in one year's time. He was a 3.2 fWAR player in 2013 and 3.1 in 2014. I think the odds are better that he will put up something closer to that than the below replacement level he was last year. In 2015 he had by far the lowest BABIP of his career. It was just .264 compared to the .292 in 2014 and .291 lifetime. He increased his BB% and LD% in 2015 vs 2014 and lowered his K%. I think this makes him a good candidate for a bounce back year and I would be perfectly content with signing him to a one year $6-$7 million contract as a stop gap to Anderson. Why not? It happens all the time. Even if you bank on regression, what he did in 2014 looks more like the outlier of the past four seasons. He'll be a year older. Couple it with the deterioration of his defense, which is very real, and there is no way he gets back to 3 WAR. No way. Depending on the plan for next year, $6 million would be fine for him, but perhaps instead they should for once cut bait on a guy. And nobody's gonna give a multi-year deal to a guy who just had the year he had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 09:06 AM) But if you're going to be replaced why wouldn't you take a guaranteed 2 or even 3 (mutual option on third) year deal with another team that definitely wants to keep you around for a minimum of two years? At his age, you're right, he should definitely take as much guaranteed money as he can get. I don't think he'll have any trouble getting 2 years guaranteed from somebody I just don't think, and don't want it to be, the Sox. I would be willing to go one year with an option/buyout in case Anderson isn't ready by 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 09:20 AM) I agree, but I could see a big market team giving him a ridiculous contract, like 3/36. No chance, and if they do, good for Alexei. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 09:30 AM) No chance, and if they do, good for Alexei. I'm not saying it's likely, but I meant a team like the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox if they needed a SS, or even a 2B/CF, where he played in 08. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 09:37 AM) I'm not saying it's likely, but I meant a team like the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox if they needed a SS, or even a 2B/CF, where he played in 08. They don't, and even if they did, there is zero chance Alexei would get that much. If he could the Sox would have exercised the option and traded him. He's going to be at least 34, coming off a below replacement level season. Those guys don't get 3 year guarantees with raises. Edited November 5, 2015 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchetman Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I'm thinking JR is holding the budget pretty tight on Hahn. Ventura always liked Saladino and I don't see much drop off from Ramirez. Not $9MM in drop off at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Guys who are in decline don't usually add 216 OPS to their first half OPS in the second half. His second half OPS was .757, and above his career numbers. The guy had a really bad first half, but recovered and had a very good second half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 10:01 AM) Guys who are in decline don't usually add 216 OPS to their first half OPS in the second half. His second half OPS was .757, and above his career numbers. The guy had a really bad first half, but recovered and had a very good second half. Then he should have no problem getting paid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2015 -> 10:07 AM) Then he should have no problem getting paid. I don't believe he will have nearly the problem that some think ( 1 year $5 million? Only if he take a HUGE discount to stay here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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