Playoff odds

[TheTruth05]

Playoff odds at fangraphs featured in this piece.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...rt-they-needed/

 

Optimistic Piece, good stuff.

[OmarComing25]

Optimistic Piece, good stuff.

What I like about it is that we're 15-6 despite not having everything go right. Many hitters are performing well below expectations (especially Abreu), and so even with inevitable regression from our pitching (Latos in particular), that could be offset by positive regression from the offense.

[chitownsportsfan]

What I like about it is that we're 15-6 despite not having everything go right. Many hitters are performing well below expectations (especially Abreu), and so even with inevitable regression from our pitching (Latos in particular), that could be offset by positive regression from the offense.

 

Well, I don't think you can ask for "more to go right" then a historic start pitching and defense wise. I thought they'd be improved defensively I don't think anyone thought Adam Eaton was going to be the RF version of Alex Gordon and that the Sox would be top 3 in UZR and DRS and DER twenty games in.

 

Hopefully regression from the pitching and defense is met with regression from Frazier's and Abreu's bats as well as a competent Avi.

[maxjusttyped]

ZIPS has the White Sox finishing with the best record in the American League. It gives us a 75% chance of either winning the division or making the play-in game.

 

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/725432328462450689

[southsider2k5]

ZIPS has the White Sox finishing with the best record in the American League. It gives us a 75% chance of either winning the division or making the play-in game.

 

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/725432328462450689

 

That is by far the lowest odds I have seen for Cleveland, and the highest for the Royals.

[OmarComing25]

ZIPS has the White Sox finishing with the best record in the American League. It gives us a 75% chance of either winning the division or making the play-in game.

 

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/725432328462450689

ZIPS says our chances to win the World Series is basically the same as the Mets. I'd take it.

[chitownsportsfan]

ZIPS says our chances to win the World Series is basically the same as the Mets. I'd take it.

 

Wow, they might actually have a good team.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

59%

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

ZIPS says our chances to win the World Series is basically the same as the Mets. I'd take it.

 

There are still some sports books in Vegas listing the odds of the Sox winning the World Series at 50:1 .

[Dunt]

We've overtaken the Indians to win the central now in Fangraph odds

[cabiness42]

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com has gotten into the playoff odds business. Through games of May 1, they have the Sox as the 8th best team in MLB, 3rd best in the AL, and best in the division, giving them a 66% chance of making the playoffs, 47% to win the division, and 6% to win the World Series.

 

They also put odds on upcoming games. They take each team's rating and then adjust for starting pitcher and location. For this week:

 

Quintana 55% vs Wright

Danks 46% vs Buchholz

Rodon 54% vs Owens

 

Latos 59% vs Duffey

Sale 66% vs Nolaso

Quintana 66% vs Berrios

 

 

[shysocks]

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com has gotten into the playoff odds business. Through games of May 1, they have the Sox as the 8th best team in MLB, 3rd best in the AL, and best in the division, giving them a 66% chance of making the playoffs, 47% to win the division, and 6% to win the World Series.

 

They also put odds on upcoming games. They take each team's rating and then adjust for starting pitcher and location. For this week:

 

Quintana 55% vs Wright

Danks 46% vs Buchholz

Rodon 54% vs Owens

 

Latos 59% vs Duffey

Sale 66% vs Nolaso

Quintana 66% vs Berrios

I love baseball. It is my favorite sport, and nothing else is close. But Danks/Buchholz might be an unwatchable game.

[southsider2k5]

Today's update.

 

Fangraphs is at 58.8%. Indians have finally fallen to second at 54.2%. Tigers up to 42.5% Royals still down at 19.7%.

 

Baseball prospectus has us at 75.9%, Cleveland still at 64.1%, and Detroit at 31.6%

 

538 has the White Sox projected at 90 wins, and a 66% chance at making the playoffs. The Indians are next at 39%, with the Tigers at 35%.

[Texsox]

538 has the White Sox projected at 90 wins, and a 66% chance at making the playoffs. The Indians are next at 39%, with the Tigers at 35%.

 

Interesting if those two are linked. In other words are they suggesting that any central team winning 90 games has a 66% chance of making the playoffs or are they saying there is a 66% chance that the Sox will win 90 AND make the playoffs?

[cabiness42]

Interesting if those two are linked. In other words are they suggesting that any central team winning 90 games has a 66% chance of making the playoffs or are they saying there is a 66% chance that the Sox will win 90 AND make the playoffs?

 

I haven't read the details of their projection system, but I would think the projected win total is the median of computer-simulated outcomes. So there is a 50% chance the Sox win 90+ games, meaning that there is a 16% chance that the Sox win less than 90 games but still make the playoffs.

[southsider2k5]

Interesting if those two are linked. In other words are they suggesting that any central team winning 90 games has a 66% chance of making the playoffs or are they saying there is a 66% chance that the Sox will win 90 AND make the playoffs?

 

There are a lot of independent variables at play here. One is all of the factors that go into what the White Sox win total would be, including when the White Sox win, that another team has to lose. Another factor is that no matter what number of games the White Sox win, there are 29 other teams who function mostly independent of the White Sox, are are accumulating their own wins and losses.

 

The White Sox in percentage is made up of a relative confidence level, down to a number of standard deviations. Within that is built in a certain level of odds that the prediction could be lower, higher, or match. Besides that are the confidence levels of other teams. Within that there is always the chance of an outlier event, such as the White Sox winning 90 games, but 2 other wild cards winning 91 or more games thus making the White Sox not a playoff team.

 

This early in the season (somewhere between 23 and 26 games for pretty much all of baseball), the amount of variables that can still happen (around 125-130 games for each baseball team) are still really high, meaning even though a projection of 90 games won is being made now, there isn't a lot of confidence in that number, thus only a 66% chance at making the playoffs.

 

At least that is how I see it.

[Texsox]

Since the wild card was expanded 90 wins would have made the playoffs about half of the time. The first two years something like 93 or 94 wins were necessary. The last two years less than 90. So 90 is right in the range.

[Dunt]

Updated ZiPS has the Sox finishing with the best record in AL and best odds of WS appearance. 78.2% chance of being in the playoffs.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Dunt

[flavum]

538 has the Sox at 91-71, and almost 70% to make the postseason.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

 

Fangraphs is around 87 wins, and 65%

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

If the Sox pitching staff stays healthy (knock on wood), it would be a huge disappointment if they don't win 90 games after starting 19-8.

 

71-64 the rest of the way should be doable.

 

I'm saying 93-69 now.

Edited May 4, 2016 by flavum

[chitownsportsfan]

Since the wild card was expanded 90 wins would have made the playoffs about half of the time. The first two years something like 93 or 94 wins were necessary. The last two years less than 90. So 90 is right in the range.

 

It's more like 86-90, or even 86-88 given that parity in the AL this year. There's not a lot of bottom feeders to get fat on like the NL.

[southsider2k5]

Fangraphs is up to 67.7%. Despite a 5 game lead over them, the Indians are still their favorites at 68.8%

 

538 is at 73%. Next up is Cleveland at 48%.

 

BP has us at 78.8%, Cleveland at 72.8%

[bmags]

Indians definitely beat us in pitching depth right now until Rodon can pick it up and we find a 5th.

[southsider2k5]

Fangraphs has the White Sox at 70.7%. It is a red letter day because after leading the whole season to this point, they finally have the Indians with the second highest chances, down to 65.1%

 

Baseball Prospectus has the White Sox at 83.0%, Cleveland at 70.0%

 

538 has the White Sox at 78%, Tribe at 41%. They also have the Sox projected out to 93 wins, which is the highest of any modeling (BP at 90, FG at 88)

 

 

 

 

[lostfan]

What was the fanbase's consensus feeling heading into 2005? I don't remember, I was pretty isolated and had just moved, I didn't know about this board, social media didn't exist yet, etc.

 

I remember being excited about picking up AJ but I never expected that team to start off the year firing on all cylinders the way they did.

[southsider2k5]

What was the fanbase's consensus feeling heading into 2005? I don't remember, I was pretty isolated and had just moved, I didn't know about this board, social media didn't exist yet, etc.

 

I remember being excited about picking up AJ but I never expected that team to start off the year firing on all cylinders the way they did.

 

Sox were picked something like 3rd or 4th going into the season. Fans were really divided on the Pods/Carlos Lee trade. Not a whole lot of optimism pre-season. Bandwagon got rolling early with a hot start.

 

Pretty similar to this year honestly.