Robin Ventura sacrifice bunted with the 3 hitter in the 7th inning

[Balta1701]

It is absolutely a numbers game. The attempt is to take the action that gives you the best chance of succeeding. More than just FireRobin, I am curious what the actual numbers have to say about this specific situation.

OMFG some fraction of this stat exists now.

 

For his career, Cabrera coming up with runners on 2nd and 0 outs advances the runner 59% of the time. Since he magically became a different hitter in 2012 that percentage is actually higher, he advances runners on his own 66% of the time. His career sacrifice bunt success rate is 75%. In other words, they drop the chances of him scoring someone from 2nd to 0 in exchange for a 9% increase of his odds of moving the player to 3rd.

 

For his career, Todd Frazier scores a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs 49% of the time. Unfortunately I cannot easily find Frazier's "score from 2nd" numbers, but he only has a .701 OPS this season with runners in scoring position. He also only GIDPs 6% of the time this year, so moving the guy to 3b did eliminate that small chance.

[southsider2k5]

it's not hard just look at the WPA graph:

 

Went down basically 1% after the SUCCESSFUL bunt. Given that Melky is better than your average hitter the actual impact was probably higher than the generic win expectancy chart.

 

It was an awful decision. Things like this add up.

 

What graph?

[kitekrazy]

Listen up, people: Blame White Sox players before you blame the manager

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosen...531-column.html

 

I can't believe Rosenbloom wrote that. Haugh makes a better point. So often in professional sports coaches are the sacrificial lamb. Change for change sake.

[Texsox]

Would love to see what half the people here can do managing. Monday morning quarterbacking is easy

 

You don't have to have a manager. Just have a laptop in the dugout and follow the stats.

[LittleHurt05]

Here is the win expectancy graph from yesterday:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=20...amp;season=2016

 

It was claimed that the Sox win expectancy went down 0.8% after the Melky bunt. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me it looks like it actually went up 0.8%. Since the Mets won, the numbers show their WE and it appears to go from 34.8% to 34% after the bunt. Then up to 48.1 after the Frazier out and 58% after Shuck ended the inning.

[LVSoxFan]

While he certainly has a good point, his comment about Maddon having a bullet-proof lineup really hit home as to what the problem is, and what I've said for years.

 

No, firing Ventura won't change anything. Fire Kenny Williams.

 

Thanks for 2005 Kenny, really, but since then the Sox have sucked ass and you've made some of the worst signings (Dunn!) and rentals in recent history.

 

One trip to the playoffs in 2008--and that's only because Minnesota managed to out-stink us (as fun as the blackout game was)--where we got smoked in the first round.

 

People have mentioned what the Hawks did: exactly. They cleaned house and came in with a new attitude, a new plan and they spent wisely.

 

So while I don't have much faith in Ventura as he learns-on-the-job and does things like having Melky bunt, or leaving in pitchers until they're so far in the hole will never climb out... it goes higher than him. Like, KW-high.

 

I said at the beginning of this season (as I have in seasons past): as long as KW is in charge, expect more corpseball. Granted, for a month there I thought perhaps KW was going to prove me wrong this year (and I was fine with that) but no... here we are again.

[Chicago White Sox]

You don't have to have a manager. Just have a laptop in the dugout and follow the stats.

GMAFB. Baseball is an incredibly mental game and a manager's influence goes beyond their in-game decision-making. How about Robin provides some leadership and gets this team to stop pressing? Teams rarely go into multi-week funks after one tough loss, but he we are still losing day after day. If Robin can't right this ship, then it's time to see if Renteria can.

 

Also, name one private-sector occupation where the complete failure of a team doesn't cost the manager his job? Why is it in baseball that many fail to hold the manager accountable and say "blame the players". When an entire team underperforms, the manager must be held responsible too. I'm just shocked that there are this many people willing to give Robin a free pass at this point.

[COACH612]

GMAFB. Baseball is an incredibly mental game and a manager's influence goes beyond their in-game decision-making. How about Robin provides some leadership and gets this team to stop pressing? Teams rarely go into multi-week funks after one tough loss, but he we are still losing day after day. If Robin can't right this ship, then it's time to see if Renteria can.

 

Also, name one private-sector occupation where the complete failure of a team doesn't cost the manager his job? Why is it in baseball that many fail to hold the manager accountable and say "blame the players". When an entire team underperforms, the manager must be held responsible too. I'm just shocked that there are this many people willing to give Robin a free pass at this point.

 

 

I simple cannot give Ventura a free pass. How many base running mistakes have there been over the years that Ventura refused to address? That's on him. But, that being said, the game absolutely falls on the players. A good manager can create a good culture. Look at the Royals. They never give up enen down 6 runs in the 9th. That attitude comes from the manager. If a manager will not hold the players accountable, then what good is having a manager in the first place. Any idiot can watch a game from the dugout.

[Hatchetman]

Here is the win expectancy graph from yesterday:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=20...amp;season=2016

 

It was claimed that the Sox win expectancy went down 0.8% after the Melky bunt. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me it looks like it actually went up 0.8%. Since the Mets won, the numbers show their WE and it appears to go from 34.8% to 34% after the bunt. Then up to 48.1 after the Frazier out and 58% after Shuck ended the inning.

 

 

That's not exactly what we're after though. That tells us the odds given what has already happened. Melky' sac was successful. What if it wasn't? What is chance of that -- 20%?

[Balta1701]

That's not exactly what we're after though. That tells us the odds given what has already happened. Melky' sac was successful. What if it wasn't? What is chance of that -- 20%?

Based on his career numbers 25% and I'm thrilled that B-R now reports this.

[southsider2k5]

Here is the win expectancy graph from yesterday:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=20...amp;season=2016

 

It was claimed that the Sox win expectancy went down 0.8% after the Melky bunt. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me it looks like it actually went up 0.8%. Since the Mets won, the numbers show their WE and it appears to go from 34.8% to 34% after the bunt. Then up to 48.1 after the Frazier out and 58% after Shuck ended the inning.

 

This is much closer to what I was looking for. Thanks.

[Hatchetman]

so essentially the Sox' winning odds were unchanged AFTER Melky's successful bunt. lot of upside in that call.

[Texsox]

Also, name one private-sector occupation where the complete failure of a team doesn't cost the manager his job? Why is it in baseball that many fail to hold the manager accountable and say "blame the players". When an entire team underperforms, the manager must be held responsible too. I'm just shocked that there are this many people willing to give Robin a free pass at this point.

 

Complete failure of the team? How many private sector managers would be fired if their unit had a great first quarter then fell back and hit their annual budget? How corporate managers with multiple years tenure get fired over a five week stretch? Not many. Over a thirty year business career I can think of a lot more managers that survived this sort of "total failure". Most private sector companies do not overreact.

 

Equating a sports team to a private sector job is a stretch. So I'm not using this as a way to defend Ventura, just pointing out the analogy isn't that great.

 

 

 

[Texsox]

I simple cannot give Ventura a free pass. How many base running mistakes have there been over the years that Ventura refused to address? That's on him. But, that being said, the game absolutely falls on the players. A good manager can create a good culture. Look at the Royals. They never give up enen down 6 runs in the 9th. That attitude comes from the manager. If a manager will not hold the players accountable, then what good is having a manager in the first place. Any idiot can watch a game from the dugout.

 

And you know this how? Because he doesn't go through the press and make this stuff public? It seems to me any decent manager learns to praise in public and reprimand in private. There are plenty of good reasons to fire Ventura, but keeping negativity out of the press shouldn't be one of them.

[southsider2k5]

Complete failure of the team? How many private sector managers would be fired if their unit had a great first quarter then fell back and hit their annual budget? How corporate managers with multiple years tenure get fired over a five week stretch? Not many. Over a thirty year business career I can think of a lot more managers that survived this sort of "total failure". Most private sector companies do not overreact.

 

Equating a sports team to a private sector job is a stretch. So I'm not using this as a way to defend Ventura, just pointing out the analogy isn't that great.

 

It also fails in a number of other ways, for example, sports only have one winner. Take the fast food sector, how many different successful multi-billion dollar corporations are there? Is Burger King a loser because they can't catch McDonalds in market cap? There is plenty of money to be made. Their standards are all subjective.

[caulfield12]

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/5/31/1181...e-sox-backslide

 

Pretty well-written article about the managerial situation as of now...

[COACH612]

And you know this how? Because he doesn't go through the press and make this stuff public? It seems to me any decent manager learns to praise in public and reprimand in private. There are plenty of good reasons to fire Ventura, but keeping negativity out of the press shouldn't be one of them.

 

 

Seriously? Have you seen how many base running mistakes have been made over the years? How many players got doubled off? If players can't figure out not to run on liners, they should not be in the majors. It's better this year. How come it took his last contract year? Coincidence? I don't think so.

[COACH612]

And you know this how? Because he doesn't go through the press and make this stuff public? It seems to me any decent manager learns to praise in public and reprimand in private. There are plenty of good reasons to fire Ventura, but keeping negativity out of the press shouldn't be one of them.

 

 

By the way, I never stated a good manager keeps bad stuff out of the press. Of course he should. Dirty laundry behind closed doors. But come on, there are ways to address the media about these issues without calling any player out.

[COACH612]

Also, if I am not mistaken, during the KC debacle last weekend, didn't Abreu swing on a 3-0 count? If the man is not hitting, why the green light? It would take at least 3 more pitches to get him out.

[southsider2k5]

And you know this how? Because he doesn't go through the press and make this stuff public? It seems to me any decent manager learns to praise in public and reprimand in private. There are plenty of good reasons to fire Ventura, but keeping negativity out of the press shouldn't be one of them.

 

This is why Robin is known as a players manager. He isn't going to make himself look good at the expense of someone else. He is going to protect his players instead of throwing them under the bus. Rick Hahn operates the same way. It why the John Danks move seemingly came out of no where. It is why despite Saladino is slowly and quietly taking time from Rollins, instead of some big speech publicly about Rollins needing to step it up.

[fathom]

Also, if I am not mistaken, during the KC debacle last weekend, didn't Abreu swing on a 3-0 count? If the man is not hitting, why the green light? It would take at least 3 more pitches to get him out.

 

Disagree, let him swing 3-0 and get a meatball and hopefully he bombs one and gets some confidence.

[OmarComing25]

Disagree, let him swing 3-0 and get a meatball and hopefully he bombs one and gets some confidence.

Completely agree, perfect time to let him swing and try and get out of the funk.

[COACH612]

Completely agree, perfect time to let him swing and try and get out of the funk.

 

 

Sure worked. He popped it up into foul territory. Out. How's that confidence thing working out.

[OmarComing25]

Sure worked. He popped it up into foul territory. Out. How's that confidence thing working out.

Just because it didn't work in that AB doesn't mean it wasn't a good idea to do it.

[COACH612]

Just because it didn't work in that AB doesn't mean it wasn't a good idea to do it.

 

 

You mean like Melky's Sac bunt?