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Keith Law Top 100

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 02:08 PM)
Any other Busts at Number 1 besides D. Young?

 

How do you rate a bust? Jurickson Profar and Matt Wieters, jump out, but Josh Hamilton (with the Devil Rays) and Ben Grieve could both be there, as well as Rick Ankiel and Jay Bruce. As far as #1 prospects go, those guys were disappointments, but they were all fairly solid MLB players at one point or another, as was Delmon Young. Also, Brien Taylor is probably the biggest bust of all time.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...spects/all-time

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 06:31 AM)
Keith Law's White Sox Prospect overview: http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6460

 

Pretty glowing about Alec Hansen and Basabe. Thinks Fulmer, Lopez,and Burdi are all probably relievers but really good ones. He likes Amado Nunez.

 

he does paint a picture that i've thought for the last month or so... if for some reason Fulmer and Lopez end up in the bullpen we could back into a pretty amazing bullpen situation similar to the yankees/royals/indians of the past couple years. Burdi, Fulmer, Lopez in the 7th, 8th, 9th would be pretty sick.

 

he also has pretty glowing comments on Curbelo and Dunning.

 

havent seen these kind of positive comments about our depth in some time.

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QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:06 AM)
he does paint a picture that i've thought for the last month or so... if for some reason Fulmer and Lopez end up in the bullpen we could back into a pretty amazing bullpen situation similar to the yankees/royals/indians of the past couple years. Burdi, Fulmer, Lopez in the 7th, 8th, 9th would be pretty sick.

 

he also has pretty glowing comments on Curbelo and Dunning.

 

havent seen these kind of positive comments about our depth in some time.

 

He seems pretty high on Stephens saying he could be a fourth starter, but has a pretty good chance of becoming a 5th starter

 

 

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It sickens me that we are having to trade Q/Sale to get top 100 prospects and we traded a top 100 prospect in Tatis Jr. for James freaking Shields

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 01:23 PM)
It sickens me that we are having to trade Q/Sale to get top 100 prospects and we traded a top 100 prospect in Tatis Jr. for James freaking Shields

 

Agreed. Can only really blame the false hot start to the season. The best we can hope for is that Shields turns in a good first half and a team is looking for a guy to help eat innings during a playoff push/help preserve young arms. Of course, we'd also have to toss in any money going our way already from the Padres.

Edited by soxfan2014

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 01:23 PM)
It sickens me that we are having to trade Q/Sale to get top 100 prospects and we traded a top 100 prospect in Tatis Jr. for James freaking Shields

 

Tatis Jr has not proven anything yet, you can relax

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 02:31 PM)
Tatis Jr has not proven anything yet, you can relax

 

Like most all prospects you mean? Whether he pans out or not is irrelevant. The point is we were trading away high upside talent even into last summer before the 180. That is frustrating.

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 02:56 PM)
Like most all prospects you mean? Whether he pans out or not is irrelevant. The point is we were trading away high upside talent even into last summer before the 180. That is frustrating.

Correct. If Shields was a decent, reasonably paid pitcher, you could almost justify it. Almost. Even if Tatis, Jr. was just a so=so prospect, you could almost justify it. Almost. I don't understand how any GM anywhere could have pulled the trigger on that trade.

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Here's Eric Longenhagen's comments on Fernando Tatis Jr:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-re...n-diego-padres/

 

6. Fernando Tatis, Jr., 3B

 

Video

 

 

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic

 

 

Age

18

Height

6’3

Weight

185

Bat/Throw

R/R

 

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

 

 

 

Hit: 30/50

 

Raw Power: 50/60

 

Game Power: 30/50

 

Run: 45/40

 

Fielding: 45/60

 

Throw: 60/70

 

 

 

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Had .182 ISO and 26.5% strikeout in 50-PA taste of Northwest League at age 17.

 

Scouting Report

The primary return from Chicago in exchange for James Shields early this season, Tatis was already an intriguing prospect late in the spring but continued to improve as the summer went on and now looks like a potential star. He has shortstop actions and a future 70 arm, but he’ll almost certainly need to move to third base eventually as his large frame fills in and he slows down. The combination of the arm, athleticism, hands and actions could lead to plus-plus defense at third base, though, and with more mass will come more power. Tatis has good bat speed and some natural leverage in his swing and could have plus raw power at maturity. He may never tap into it, though. The swing is noisy, with lots of independently moving parts and Tatis’ contact issues are exacerbated by the length of his limbs and his propensity to be way out in front of offspeed stuff. I have a future 50 on the bat, which is pretty aggressive considering where Tatis is at right now, but he’s still just 17 and has done nothing but exceed the expectations placed upon him as an amateur since arriving. If all the tools actualize, he’s a star. Of course, at just 17 and with hefty swing-and-miss issues, he’s also quite a risk.

 

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

 

Fernando-Tatis.png

 

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 03:33 PM)
How do you rate a bust? Jurickson Profar and Matt Wieters, jump out, but Josh Hamilton (with the Devil Rays) and Ben Grieve could both be there, as well as Rick Ankiel and Jay Bruce. As far as #1 prospects go, those guys were disappointments, but they were all fairly solid MLB players at one point or another, as was Delmon Young. Also, Brien Taylor is probably the biggest bust of all time.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...spects/all-time

 

Matt Bush was another for San Diego...saw him play a couple times in his first pro gig (Single A Fort Wayne MWL). Saw him make a few nice throws to 1st base and that was about it for his career because he couldn't stay out of trouble. I guess he's a pitcher now for Texas...we'll see how that goes.

 

Crazy story though: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/matt-bu...o-prison-050514

Edited by FT35

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QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:20 PM)
Wite, please explain the gaps on that graph.

Pretty much "boom or bust" plotted out.

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QUOTE (hi8is @ Feb 1, 2017 -> 12:12 AM)
Pretty much "boom or bust" plotted out.

But why is the 4-7 WAR a possibility while 1-4 and 7-10 are not? It's like saying that if you take a class - A, C, & F are possible grades, but B & D are not.

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QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:51 PM)
But why is the 4-7 WAR a possibility while 1-4 and 7-10 are not? It's like saying that if you take a class - A, C, & F are possible grades, but B & D are not.

My best guess judging by their gradings of his tools and evaluations... he's either going to come into his power and have his other assets reach his ceiling, leading him to the higher level of the scale... or he's not going to reach his ceiling on secondary tools with no showing of maturity of his power... or somewhere in between.

 

In a nutshell, they don't know what the f*** to think.

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Keith Law updated his top 50. Basically didn't move any players around from his top 100 but he took out guys that have graduated from prospect status like Swanson, Bell, Benintendi etc: http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6988

 

#5 Michael Kopech

 

Best upside of any starter in high minors

Potential for 3 plus pitches

#1 starter build and delivery that works

Command and secondary offerings not major league ready

Struck out 10/18 batters in AA debut

Top 5 starter in baseball upside

 

#11 Lucas Giolito

 

Up and down showing in spring training

Working on restoring old delivery

Low 90's 2 seamer more and mid 90's 4 seamer less

Transition could mean more AAA time

 

#13 Yoan Moncada

 

White Sox bumped Moncada to AAA even though he came into year with just 53 games above A ball

Doing what he usually does, making hard contact when he makes contact and striking out more than you'd like

Playing 2B full time again.

 

Law gets criticized by Sox fans because he doesn't think Lopez and Fulmer are starters and he's the low man in the industry on Moncada. He's the high man on Kopech though and still believes in Giolito when many don't. But yes, he hates the Sox.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 12, 2017 -> 08:22 AM)
Keith Law updated his top 50. Basically didn't move any players around from his top 100 but he took out guys that have graduated from prospect status like Swanson, Bell, Benintendi etc: http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6988

 

#5 Michael Kopech

 

Best upside of any starter in high minors

Potential for 3 plus pitches

#1 starter build and delivery that works

Command and secondary offerings not major league ready

Struck out 10/18 batters in AA debut

Top 5 starter in baseball upside

 

#11 Lucas Giolito

 

Up and down showing in spring training

Working on restoring old delivery

Low 90's 2 seamer more and mid 90's 4 seamer less

Transition could mean more AAA time

 

#13 Yoan Moncada

 

White Sox bumped Moncada to AAA even though he came into year with just 53 games above A ball

Doing what he usually does, making hard contact when he makes contact and striking out more than you'd like

Playing 2B full time again.

 

Law gets criticized by Sox fans because he doesn't think Lopez and Fulmer are starters and he's the low man in the industry on Moncada. He's the high man on Kopech though and still believes in Giolito when many don't. But yes, he hates the Sox.

 

And his criticism of Moncada is the same as many posters in the minor league thread last night.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 12, 2017 -> 08:27 AM)
And his criticism of Moncada is the same as many posters in the minor league thread last night.

 

Seems to criticize Moncada for striking out, but has Meadows ranked above him who has been awful in his first 5 minor league games batting .056 and striking out 9 time in 20 plate appearances

 

Collins has been pretty impressive so far in 6 games, having thrown out 3-4 potential base stealers, only allowing a runner to advance with runners on third and first and he faked the throw to second

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 12, 2017 -> 08:43 AM)
It didn't happen unless there was a period at the end

 

Oh jeez, I'm going to get fried for this hahaha

 

I'm stuck in my ways, I like making people puke

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Apr 12, 2017 -> 08:39 AM)
Seems to criticize Moncada for striking out, but has Meadows ranked above him who has been awful in his first 5 minor league games batting .056 and striking out 9 time in 20 plate appearances

 

Collins has been pretty impressive so far in 6 games, having thrown out 3-4 potential base stealers, only allowing a runner to advance with runners on third and first and he faked the throw to second

 

 

Meadows is also a solid defender in the outfield though. He doesn't really like Moncada's glove. Not just a ranking on hitting ability.

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Not sure how he can criticize Moncada's bat wrapping tendencies and be okay with Bellinger's swing long-term (it's got a serious hitch and wraps a bit as well) but that's just me.

 

The SO criticisms are certainly warranted, but from what I've seen he's not chasing pitches - guy actually has great plate discipline, which tends to translate to fixing problems like that. The strike out to end last night was the perfect example: he worked a deep count and got a bad call by the ump.

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