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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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11 minutes ago, Texsox said:

https://www.teachersoftomorrow.org/texas/fully-online-teacher-certification

I did mine on-line while working full time. This isn't the company, mine closed shortly after I finished. Basically you are looking at an Alternate Certification Program. You won't have to complete before getting hired, you can work on it as you teach. Basically you will have two tests to complete, a content test and a professional practices and responsibilities test. The classes will help you with the PPR

You know this might be the most useful thing I can ask you - what's the schedule like for hiring people for your district (especially this year)? I don't really want to spend $300 on this and then find out that I already missed the years hirings or that I actually do get some other position around here, and I'm going to be especially swamped in the next few weeks because I have to figure out how to turn a 4 week field trip into something online. 

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17 minutes ago, bmags said:

Right, and especially in Chicago...do we want Boeing to shed all of those jobs? 

But also...the extra UI benefits are a major portion of this bill and those are not loans. Much of the corporate relief will be paid back, as it looks like it is just formalizing a process that the FED was going to do anyway.

So nationalize the companies or at least take an equity stake and claw back stockholder payments and executive bonuses. Stop privatizing all the profits and socializing all the losses.

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4 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

So nationalize the companies or at least take an equity stake and claw back stockholder payments and executive bonuses. Stop privatizing all the profits and socializing all the losses.



Good luck with that comrade.  

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You know this might be the most useful thing I can ask you - what's the schedule like for hiring people for your district (especially this year)? I don't really want to spend $300 on this and then find out that I already missed the years hirings or that I actually do get some other position around here, and I'm going to be especially swamped in the next few weeks because I have to figure out how to turn a 4 week field trip into something online. 

Normally hiring is constant throughout the late spring and summer as teachers move, retire, take different positions, or whatever. This year I honestly don't know. There may be less movement from teaching to non academic positions. 

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https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

 

I think some of the gloom and doom posters here should read this. We’ve got a problem on our hands for sure but as expected the models for COVID fatalities are being driven down pretty drastically.

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20 minutes ago, almagest said:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

 

I think some of the gloom and doom posters here should read this. We’ve got a problem on our hands for sure but as expected the models for COVID fatalities are being driven down pretty drastically.

The models are being driven down in response to the extreme social distancing measures being taken, as the models originally predicted. The actual authors of that model have come out and corrected the way some conservative media presented that the original models were somehow "wrong" or that the problem is any less serious than they originally presented. 

If we abandon the social distancing measures now, we'll shoot right back to their original projections on uncontrolled spread.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/

Threads from the actual researchers below:

 

47 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Good luck with that comrade.  

The Federal Government took an equity stake in GM and Chrysler when they were bailed out in 2009. They could have made that a condition of aid in this bill if they desired.

Edited by StrangeSox

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1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

 

The models are being driven down in response to the extreme social distancing measures being taken, as the models originally predicted. The actual authors of that model have come out and corrected the conservative media presentation that the original models were somehow "wrong" or that the problem is any less serious than they originally presented.

If we abandon the social distancing measures now, we'll shoot right back to their original projections on uncontrolled spread.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/

Threads from the actual researchers below:

 

The Federal Government took an equity stake in GM and Chrysler when they were bailed out in 2009. They could have made that a condition of aid in this bill if they desired.

And if you read the article, that would be obvious.

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You're right, the Daily Wire article does correctly cite that. The "revisions" have been misleading presented elsewhere as indication that the social distancing measures are an overreaction or can be lifted in the near future. Should have clicked through rather than assuming...

 

What's good is that the researchers believe these measures will work! It'd be bad if we e-stop a significant portion of the economy and it doesn't even really stop the spread and lethality.

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5 hours ago, Texsox said:

Student Loans at $43B? I thought that forgiveness wasn't included. That can't be just interest, etc. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package

Per NPR, the bill provides that employers can contribute up to $5,250 to employee student loan payments without those contributions being treated as income to the employee.  That might be what is being referenced here.

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12 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

You're right, the Daily Wire article does correctly cite that. The "revisions" have been misleading presented elsewhere as indication that the social distancing measures are an overreaction or can be lifted in the near future. Should have clicked through rather than assuming...

 

What's good is that the researchers believe these measures will work! It'd be bad if we e-stop a significant portion of the economy and it doesn't even really stop the spread and lethality.

You should also read what I said - nothing about lifting social distancing. I agree we need to do it. My point is, projected death estimates are going down which is a bright spot, and if you're doom and gloom right now this should help.

I also think this will end up being a lot less fatal than we expect due to how we've seen novel diseases spread in the past few decades - if Neil Ferguson is raising his estimates on the infection rate we're looking at a lower overall CFR by default.

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Somewhat good news, "only" 433 positive tests compared to 650 yesterday in illinois. 

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28 minutes ago, bmags said:

Somewhat good news, "only" 433 positive tests compared to 650 yesterday in illinois. 

I don't imagine that's evidence of a peak, but hopefully we will see the effects of the social distancing soon.

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Compared to China America is seeing a spike in other modes of death associated with poor health.

 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Compared to China America is seeing a spike in other modes of death associated with poor health.

 

This is the easiest way to underreport deaths.  Report them as dead of a heart condition, even though if it wasn't for COVID they wouldn't have died at this time.  It is very similar to what we saw post hurricane in New Orleans and Puerto Rico.

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3 hours ago, Texsox said:

https://www.teachersoftomorrow.org/texas/fully-online-teacher-certification

I did mine on-line while working full time. This isn't the company, mine closed shortly after I finished. Basically you are looking at an Alternate Certification Program. You won't have to complete before getting hired, you can work on it as you teach. Basically you will have two tests to complete, a content test and a professional practices and responsibilities test. The classes will help you with the PPR. 

Teach for America or similar programs, we had one in Kansas City, the KC Teaching Fellows...where you get your Master's degree/certification (I had a previous one when I started, but Sports Admin) at night while you are working (it takes two summers and one full school year of night classes, 2 nights a week and some weekends.)    The positive is that those programs can often pay for the full or at least half the cost of schooling,   That said, it's less logical to do something like that, already having a PhD.   Unusual circumstances.

I guess with emergency needs or certs, there's a way to avoid this.   It gets pretty overwhelming when you have to do 3-4 different plans, substitute when there are staffing needs, then I was coaching volleyball/soccer/basketball after school and taking classes for MA.   Then passing Praxis (one for Social Studies, one for History).

 

With prior experience and PhD, there's gotta be a simpler way.  That said, the one disadvantage is going to be starting at a higher point at the salary scale (especially if they credit the university teaching program as steps up on the salary ladder) and the fact that most districts might think he's a good candidate to jump back to university at the earliest available opportunity when economic conditions improve.   But some might value the education level/experience and think it's worth the risk for 1-2, maybe 3 years.   Just depends on staffing needs and retirements at the high school level.

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In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April. Deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials. 

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths.

The analysis was developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. The state-by-state data analysis projects demand for hospital services, including the availability of ventilators, beds, and general hospital beds.  

The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available and that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends. (The end is defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide.)

This is an update on our current trajectory from the University of Washington.

Considering some places are already pulling back on the shutdown orders, I am not optimistic that we will see only that many cases.

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu

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Congratulations Soxtalk we have now successfully upgraded this thread into the MLB forum because this is the worst possible universe every time.

 And given all the options I’m going with “he is an expert on injections” and I’m done and going to go light the nearby playground kids keep using on fire.

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How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on?

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3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on?

Italys good news isnt really good, its still bad just better than the day before.

And the US is being run by fools that arent qualified to be your assistant. Its sad that all of us have to suffer because of thr mistakes of the few.

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13 minutes ago, greg775 said:

How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on?

You remember how you couldn’t figure out how touching a plastic feature could allow you to transmit a disease?

You are the germ warfare. 

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42 minutes ago, greg775 said:

How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on?

Italy had 6000 new cases on Friday. Do you read?  

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