Offseason Thread

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It is different,  and you did make a good point. Deals get nixed by ownership after basically being done deals often. It isn't worth the risk to me unless you are willing and prepared to have him on the roster, which to me means having a payroll  at least $16 million higher than you were budgeting.

True, but depending on their salary clearance, the worst case scenario is they are trading a Kimbrel at the deadline with a 50% contract. Even if he's bad that will go easily and likely get back a reliever swap or a depth piece.

As crap as it was, teams will still see a guy that strikes out batters 40% of the time. The other 60% he was getting hit hard with us, but that is still valuable.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The sox are only picking up Kimbrel's option if they know there are multiple teams interested, or they're OK paying him $16M to be in the bullpen.  They aren't relying on the fucking Rays to acquire him and if they don't all their plans are fucked.  Teams don't operate this way. 

It was for far less money, and a far less profiled player, but that is exactly what the Sox did when they gave Viciedo some money. They leaked how he was drawing strong trade interest. Yet no trade.

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Dick Allen

[raBBit]

24 minutes ago, bmags said:

cool story. Love soxtalk negotiating fanfic. This benefits the Rays how?

To be fair to Balta, this wouldn't be a bad plan for the Rays if the Sox and Rays were the only team in the league. 

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And yet, the mariners traded his contract and got a top prospect in return 

If Kimbrels agent is about to become a GM, that would be helpful.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, bmags said:

cool story. Love soxtalk negotiating fanfic. This benefits the Rays how?

What benefits does a team get out of telling a team if they pick up a 16 million dollar contract they'll happily trade for it?

Why would you help another team decide whether or not they should pick up a contract?

[bmags]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What benefits does a team get out of telling a team if they pick up a 16 million dollar contract they'll happily trade for it?

Why would you help another team decide whether or not they should pick up a contract?

I don't think these imagined conversations people are having have happened at all.

I think the sox felt that they'd rather have Kimbrel and the ability to either trade or keep him then pay $2 million and not have Kimbrel. And if you are a fan that hates Kimbrel and just wants him gone and have $14 million back, than I think you could easily trade Kimbrel where you net $14 million and $2 million in garbage offset. And if the sox choose to kick in $4-$6 million of his contract, they could probably get something more useful than $4-$6 million would get you in free agency.

Whatever you believe, certainly there is some threshold of additional money kicked in to trade kimbrel that a good market will appear. And that starts at $2 million, since that was the buy-out. 

I get the whole Jerry doesn't kick in money stuff but I don't really care and we'll see what happens. but I think it's easily defensible on the merits.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't think these imagined conversations people are having have happened at all.

I think the sox felt that they'd rather have Kimbrel and the ability to either trade or keep him then pay $2 million and not have Kimbrel. And if you are a fan that hates Kimbrel and just wants him gone and have $14 million back, than I think you could easily trade Kimbrel where you net $14 million and $2 million in garbage offset. And if the sox choose to kick in $4-$6 million of his contract, they could probably get something more useful than $4-$6 million would get you in free agency.

Whatever you believe, certainly there is some threshold of additional money kicked in to trade kimbrel that a good market will appear. And that starts at $2 million, since that was the buy-out. 

I get the whole Jerry doesn't kick in money stuff but I don't really care and we'll see what happens. but I think it's easily defensible on the merits.

His buyout is $1 million according to B-R?

[Dick Allen]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

His buyout is $1 million according to B-R?

Despite all the reports, I fully expe t Hahn to announce Kimbrels option was declined today.

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Despite all the reports, I fully expe t Hahn to announce Kimbrels option was declined today.

Boob will be destroyed 😂 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Boob will be destroyed 😂 

Yes he will, although others also confirmed.  It wouldn't surprise me if Kimbrel was the reason this was delayed. Maybe they wanted a trade done right away.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

32 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't think these imagined conversations people are having have happened at all.

I think the sox felt that they'd rather have Kimbrel and the ability to either trade or keep him then pay $2 million and not have Kimbrel. And if you are a fan that hates Kimbrel and just wants him gone and have $14 million back, than I think you could easily trade Kimbrel where you net $14 million and $2 million in garbage offset. And if the sox choose to kick in $4-$6 million of his contract, they could probably get something more useful than $4-$6 million would get you in free agency.

Whatever you believe, certainly there is some threshold of additional money kicked in to trade kimbrel that a good market will appear. And that starts at $2 million, since that was the buy-out. 

I get the whole Jerry doesn't kick in money stuff but I don't really care and we'll see what happens. but I think it's easily defensible on the merits.

The implication by some "insiders" is the sox would not pick up kimbrel option if hahn did not know for a fact he could trade him for something of value. Picking up an option then off loading for salary relief would be absurd.

So my question remains, just as absurd as you found Baltas post, I find it absurd a team would tell another team that if they pick up a big option on a reliever they'd trade for it. I've said before, I don't think kimbrel is worth 1 yr 16 million. It would be much wiser strategically to do what balta implied than it would be to do what people like Jimmy have been implying.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[raBBit]

I think the Sox keep keep Kimbrel.

There are a lot of options to trade him to a contender and swap (relatively) similar money contracts and work out the rest from a value standpoint.

Rays - Kiermaier
Phillies - Gregorius
Mets* - Cano, Carrasco, Walker
Reds* - Gray, Moustakas
Dodgers* - Price, Bellinger
Padres - Snell

*Pair with Keuchel

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The implication by some "insiders" is the sox would not pick up kimbrel option if hahn did not know for a fact he could trade him for something of value. Picking up an option then off loading for salary relief would be absurd.

So my question remains, just as absurd as you found Baltas post, I find it absurd a team would tell another team that if they pick up a big option on a reliever they'd trade for it. I've said before, I don't think kimbrel is worth 1 yr 16 million. It would be much wiser strategically to do what balta implied than it would be to do what people like Jimmy have been implying.

I think a team could know they could move someone without needing another team to tell them they will trade for them. I think understanding player market is part of their jobs.

[Dick Allen]

Why pick up someone else's junk? Yerevan are guys on that list if the White Dox really wanted yhey could pick up for basically nothing and the other team may be willing to throw in some money. Why risk it with Kimbrel? He might get injured before they could trade him.

You aren't getting additional value. Free up the money, admit it didn't work out and try again. People who trade for a living and are successful,  make a lot of bad trades but are disciplined enough to be able to admit they are wrong and get out of the bad ones and ride the good ones. The amateurs if they are crunched and have a winning position and losing position and have to get out of 1 will almost always get out of the winner because they want to be right. In the end, they wind up out of the lower as well with even a bigger loss.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, raBBit said:

I think the Sox keep keep Kimbrel.

There are a lot of options to trade him to a contender and swap (relatively) similar money contracts and work out the rest from a value standpoint.

Rays - Kiermaier
Phillies - Gregorius
Mets* - Cano, Carrasco, Walker
Reds* - Gray, Moustakas
Dodgers* - Price, Bellinger
Padres - Snell

*Pair with Keuchel

Snell is still worth a heckuva lot more than Kimbrel on the open market…and there’s just no way we’re going to be happy with an offseason deal coming off the implosion in the second half and postseason.

 

They risk holding him for 3-4 months in a non-closing role, they’re risking $16 million and not $1-2 or even $4-6 million.

it obviously wasn’t a good fit.

Next year isn’t going to change that dynamic.

If I’m another team, I just wait for the White Sox to get more desperate trying to offload him before it all becomes a sunk cost for the Sox…this shouldn’t be about trying to make Hahn’s deal better than the D- it now ranks as.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Why pick up someone else's junk? Yerevan are guys on that list if the White Dox really wanted yhey could pick up for basically nothing and the other team may be willing to throw in some money. Why risk it with Kimbrel? He might get injured before they could trade him.

You aren't getting additional value. Free up the money, admit it didn't work out and try again.

The risk on the downside (especially if the bullpen dynamic from last year is carried forth into 2022) just isn’t worth it.

These are the type of moves that never ever go the White Sox way, because they so totally dislike eating anything in the $5 million salary range and up.

And $6 million if properly assessed can still get you two 2021 Rodon’s instead of less than one broken down Eaton…if you know the talent and have expert medical evaluators.

Edited November 5, 2021 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

If a team was willing to trade for Kimbrel  they could do it today.

 

[kleedawg]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Sox could use a left handed hitting RF. A probable HOFer in his prime would have been nice.

Absolutely, hindsight 20/20.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Absolutely, hindsight 20/20.

I don't think there is much hindsight there. He was always dynamic, a 26 year old free agent. If there ever was a time to do something crazy, that was it.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I don't think there is much hindsight there. He was always dynamic, a 26 year old free agent. If there ever was a time to do something crazy, that was it.

Even in his middling years, the guy just guarantees a .370 obp and likely a .400+. I will say Yaz did recreate a portion of this, but his catching deficiency trade off is rougher than just a guy in RF.

[kleedawg]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I don't think there is much hindsight there. He was always dynamic, a 26 year old free agent. If there ever was a time to do something crazy, that was it.

But I was contending that a team should spend that type of crazy money on a player when there is significant doubts about that player as those contracts can cripple a franchise when you make a mistake and severely limit your ability to fill other holes if you are right. Everyone saw that Harper had MVP type talent, but he hadn't put that type of year together prior to signing in Philly. He has done so now multiple times. Not a big surprise he did. I was just contending that if you spend 250-300 million on one player I would prefer he didn't have extraneous baggage attached to him. Harper's risk seems much better than Machado's to date. I just preferred at the time someone safer like betts or arenado.

But Yes, Harper in RF for us would damn near be perfect for us. 

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I don't think there is much hindsight there. He was always dynamic, a 26 year old free agent. If there ever was a time to do something crazy, that was it.

It never really made sense they didn’t try harder for him. They were already trying to sign Machado to a guaranteed 8 year, $250 mill (potential 10/300 mill). Should have been in the convo for Harper.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, kleedawg said:

But I was contending that a team should spend that type of crazy money on a player when there is significant doubts about that player as those contracts can cripple a franchise when you make a mistake and severely limit your ability to fill other holes if you are right. Everyone saw that Harper had MVP type talent, but he hadn't put that type of year together prior to signing in Philly. He has done so now multiple times. Not a big surprise he did. I was just contending that if you spend 250-300 million on one player I would prefer he didn't have extraneous baggage attached to him. Harper's risk seems much better than Machado's to date. I just preferred at the time someone safer like betts or arenado.

But Yes, Harper in RF for us would damn near be perfect for us. 

HE literally won the MVP in 2015.

[ChiSox59]

58 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think the Sox keep keep Kimbrel.

There are a lot of options to trade him to a contender and swap (relatively) similar money contracts and work out the rest from a value standpoint.

Rays - Kiermaier
Phillies - Gregorius
Mets* - Cano, Carrasco, Walker
Reds* - Gray, Moustakas
Dodgers* - Price, Bellinger
Padres - Snell

*Pair with Keuchel

Why not just save the $15M and spend it on Conforto if you're trading for another bad contract? Don't invest good money after bad - you know that as well as anyone. 

Trading Kimbrel for salary relief and something cheap and interesting in a far better route, IMO. 

[raBBit]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Why not just save the $15M and spend it on Conforto if you're trading for another bad contract? Don't invest good money after bad - you know that as well as anyone. 

Trading Kimbrel for salary relief and something cheap and interesting in a far better route, IMO. 

I'm more speaking to the idea with the undrestanding that someone with the Sox told Nightengale they were doing it. If the Sox bring back Kimbrel, I would imagine they have an indication they could move him and make the team better. I understand both sides of it, but seems like somebody told Bob they intend to bring him and given his accuracy with the Sox specifically, I am going to trust him until he's wrong again (like with other teams).