SoxBlanco

This is the blurb on relievers (nothing specific about Hendriks):

I look at it like this: Money is certainly a factor while determining the finalists. If a team isn’t willing to pay what the agent is asking for, they won’t be a finalist. But once the finalists are determined, Hendriks will make a choice among them that will not be based on which offer is the highest.

Yeah, 4 for $96M is as high as I’d go. You might be able to convince me to do 4 for $98M, but 4 for $100M?!?! That’s just insane.

I would love to finish the offseason with Hendriks, a Musgrove trade, and a LH bat.

Fantastic post. Couldn’t agree more. With Musgrove on board, we would have a nice rotation of Giolito, Lynn, Musgrove, Keuchel, and Cease/Kopech. Keuchel in the 4 slot will be great, and we’d have a ton of upside in the 5 slot.

Why can’t he start in the majors as a guy out of the pen pitching 2-3 innings at a time? Then try to mix in some starts where he can go 4 or 5. Do that for the entire year with a certain amount of innings as a target, and then make him a starter right out of the gate in 2022.

I think that package of Thompson, Adolfo, Beard is pretty fair for both teams. I like that trade, and I’d be willing to give that up for Musgrove. I wouldn’t hate signing Richards or Quintana, but I think Musgrove is a notch above those guys.

Agreed. I’d give up either one of those packages for Musgrove, but I think I’m higher on him than most.

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though.

Agreed. Based on what Getz said, it sounds like he will be a part of the major league bullpen from the start of the year, and then they will sprinkle in some starts throughout the year to get his innings up. Is that how you guys took it, too?

Still feel like something gets done today?

His highest FIP in the NL has been 3.82, and his worst ERA has been 4.44. Where are you getting 5.5? Did you just pick an arbitrary time frame?

I’ve decided that I want Musgrove. If you take out 2017 when he was used as a reliever for a large portion of the season, he has 7.2 WAR across 68 starts. That’s over 3 WAR per 30 starts. And when you look at his baseball savant numbers, he has been underperforming based on his metrics. They look near elite, which tells me he’s either going to continue being the same pitcher or possibly unlock something that takes him to the next level. Sign me up. In my opinion, worst case is he’s a solid 3/4 piece of the rotation.

I don’t agree with your descriptions of Snell and Keuchel. You’re either overrating Snell or underrating Keuchel. If Snell didn’t have that one phenomenal year, people would not think as highly of him. And I’m not trying to take that year away from him. It absolutely counts and he deserves credit for it, but it’s not like he’s come close to repeating that year ever.

I’d still take Vaughn over Abrams.

These numbers are pretty damn good, aren’t they?

Is something like Stiever and Beard enough to get it done?

He was charged the day before the hire, right? It’s not like he drove drunk back in February and then they came knocking on his door in November and said, “We finally cracked the case! It was YOU, Tony! Hands behind your back. You’re going to the slammer!”

That’s an excellent point!

Yeah, the probably is 1/6 but the odds are 1:5 (sorry, that’s my math nerd side coming out). But yeah, not worth quibbling about. He did just put up a 6.8 WAR in his last full season. I guess the only place that I disagree with you is that I don’t think Bauer is that much more likely to have a 5+ WAR season.

I was actually just basing it off of the 5-1 odds you gave with the die analogy.

Agreed. That’s why I said I see your point. Lynn isn’t quite at the age where I’m worried about his age, but I can certainly understand it if you are concerned. I’d be happy to take a bet where I’d lose $100 if Lynn’s WAR is under 5 and I’d win $500 if his WAR is over 5.

I see your point, but that’s not exactly true. Felix was terrible at the end of his career, so at this moment in time, it is not true that he has been solid his entire career.

Since it appears to be bothering some people, would you be willing to make an effort to cut back on it a little?

What did Hendriks say about the Sox after game 3?