caulfield12

The odds are stacked against starting pitchers with 2 TJ surgeries...especially with max velocity styles. I tried to find it, but there aren’t more than a handful of starters who have thrown 250 or more total innings after a second surgery. Something like 2 or 3. They would be better off finding a solid 2/3 guy with a repeatable delivery or going all-in on someone like Cole when the timing is better. I get the point, would you rather have two Eeovaldi’s or one Corbin, for example...spread out your risk...but it’s those $45-60 million contracts that all added up over the last decade to hamstring the club financially. If we’re going to fail, at least do it swinging for the fences on the caliber of players who are not lightning in a bottle, everything has to go exactly right...maybe if we didn’t have so many young pitchers already in the “high risk” category it would be a different story, or if we could easily afford an eventual $160+ million payroll.

I was actually surprised Baez was so low...he still would have topped the Sox, but he was hyped like the second coming of sliced bread and a surefire MVP winner in July and August. I get it, his defense and base-running are big factors, but he wasn’t anywhere close to the MLB leaders for this specific metric.

Narvaez was the highest ranked at 109, Abreu at 106 and Palka at 99. Kevan Smith 97 Avi 91, Davidson 92 Castillo 88 Moncada/Rondon/Delmonico 87, Anderson 85 David Bote 79, Yolmer 78 Tilson 75, Leury 72 LaMarre 67, Engel 63

Maybe Trump can rail against the "rise of the computers" instead of Powell...that might play better with his base, the idea that algorithms are deciding their futures with little to no human input. Railing against the inverted yield curve and its predictive reliability for forecasting a recession might not go over quite so well. Or we can just default back to "it's Mnuchin's DAMN fault!!!" Some attributed the dramatic declines to a lack of buyers, but Cramer already knew the culprits: complex algorithmic programs set up by professional money managers to sell when the odds of future market losses increase. In other words, when an event that often precedes a recession occurs — in Tuesday's case, short-term interest rates trading above long-term rates in a so-called yield curve inversion — some trading algorithms will automatically begin selling securities because the chances of an economic slowdown just got higher. Cramer, host of "Mad Money," drew a comparison with football. Some plays can seem very risky, but when you consider the percentage chances of them going right, there's no choice but to implement them in the field. These programs make the same kind of calculation. So, when the two-year and the five-year yield curves inverted on Tuesday, some hedge funds' programs automatically sold the S&P 500, which tends to fall in times of economic weakness, and others automatically sold shares of the big banks, which suffer when long-term rates are lower, Cramer said. "Why? Because historically, this situation has produced negative results for the bank stocks and these hedge funds are trying to get out ahead of others who fear those negative results but just don't know they're going to fear them. It's a footrace," he explained. "This curve, as they call it, overrides whatever you hear about good employment or consumer balance sheets or robust lending. It's predictive." Worse, the charts are signaling more pain ahead: based on Cramer's analysis, many hedge funds likely sold the S&P 500 when it dipped below its 200-day moving average because, in the past, that move tended to bring more downside. "Here's the problem: there are now so many hedge funds using the same algorithm, same programs [that] there simply aren't enough investors willing to take the other side of the trade. If we all know that stocks go down on certain triggers, then who the heck would want to buy stocks?" Cramer said. "That's how you get a day like today, where the market goes into free-fall," the "Mad Money" host continued. "When the percentages are against you and the algorithms are in charge, ... nobody wants to try to be a hero and bet against them." https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/cramer-this-sell-off-was-caused-by-a-computer-driven-footrace.html?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|story|&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

They're likely to wait on Voit/Bird/Sanchez...don't see them being desperate to make a big move at this point unless they miss out on all their off-season targets first.

The M's are seemingly better off waiting for a potential rebound (obviously, this never happened with Shields, enough to find someone to assume the contract)...and that would save them quite a bit of money, if he could somehow put up 2-3 fWAR the first half of the season before the trade deadline. Right now, the "buyers" are going off his 2018 season and ignoring his overall solid performance record in terms of their financial demands. That said, compared to the money that Donaldson's getting for one year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that getting $20-25 million back from Seattle would make it more than a fair contract for the acquiring team. What type of prospects would have to be included would depend on the desperation of the acquiring team. At the very least, they should wait until Spring Training and see if there are any significant injuries to corner infielders on contending teams.

That was MONTHS ago, wasn't it?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/04/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html

https://waitingfornextyear.com/2018/07/cleveland-indians-have-the-worst-outfield-in-baseball/ Let’s not forget the Indians pretty much had the worst OF (with Brantley) in baseball, not counting the Sox. While everyone is already counting on Jimenez for 4-5 war, the Indians should be getting Zimmer back, they can try Yandy Diaz...they can also get virtually any top OF prospect back for Kluber and also theoretically have the ability to sign a Brantley replacement (Pollock, McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, CarGo, Markakis, etc.) Yet another option would be putting Jason Kipnis out there.

Gordon Beckham.

If we're doing ALL that, you might as well go all out and add another name like Adam Jones or trade for someone like Mallex Smith...or bring in Billy Hamilton. The question is are we simply following the Twins' model of trying to jump start things a year or two prematurely (mostly, their acquisitions were on the veteran pitching side 4-5 years ago, then the bargain-basement diving in February/March last year, such as Lynn and Morrison).

Just between Allen and Miller slumping last year (ended up at 0.4 collectively)...the Indians lost roughly 3.5 - 4.0 fWAR. So we're not chasing the 2016-2018 Indians' pen, we're chasing a pen that was terrible and has lots of room for improvement. Whereas our pen, at best, is about even with they were (as it currently stands) at the beginning of last season. Colome SHOULD make a big difference, but Fry has to repeat, and we traded away a number of pretty solid veterans. Jones' health is always up in the air, Burdi has a LONG way to go to be a reliable back end option and our rookies took their lumps. Sure, it could all come together like the 2012 staff with 10+ rookie pitchers being used at various times...but anyone want to predict the odds of a repeat?

You're going to have a fall off in the bullpen from the Indians (but Allen wasn't that great last year)...sure, they trade one of their starters and then suffer from a rash of injuries, that's certainly possible (especially Santana). You could certainly argue that rolling the dice like the 2007 White Sox did in the bullpen with a bunch of inexperienced guys and two veterans (Hand, the best) and you either get an implosion or everything miraculously clicks like the 2005 White Sox. They're likely to get less out of Perez than Gomes at catcher, but Gomes has been inconsistent from year to year. That said, there's no reason to think that Kipnis won't rebound, because he was absolutely miserable last year. You lose Brantley, and his veteran presence will definitely be missed...you also can't be sure what Encarnacion has left in the tank at his age, but, no matter how you slice it, Lindor and Jose Ramirez alone can put up numbers close to the entire White Sox collective fWAR if you combine the two. Alonso's another veteran bat in that line-up. There's also the possibility of some of their young prospects making strides. They're going to do much better than Greg Allen for 100ish games in the outfield again this year, no matter what they come up with.

Right now, matching Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger/Bieber/Santana with our rotation isn’t fair. Even taking Kluber out doesn’t make it close if you match them up spot by spot. Look at the numbers of Clevinger, for example. He would be our #1 starter, arguably. Or a healthy Santana, who might not even make their rotation, but could easily end up a dominant back-end reliever.

That approach also led to today’s rather more modest deal. The M’s are sending Alex Colome to the White Sox in exchange for catcher Omar Narvaez. At first glance, this is simply great for the M’s. The M’s do not need a great set-up man or closer in Colome, and I remain somewhat skeptical that he’s great at all. He’s had a FIP in the mid 3’s 3 of the past 4 years, and he hasn’t shown a *persistent* ability to strand runners the way he did in 2016. He’s a good player, but not a transcendent one – not when the average reliever has a K% just 2 percentage points behind Colome’s 2018 mark. Narvaez is an intriguing guy. He’s 26, bats lefty, and draws a ton of walks. Coming into 2018, that was essentially the sum total of his attributes: he had zero power, and hadn’t shown consistent hitting ability in the minors beyond a good walk rate and low Ks. Worse, he didn’t have a classic catcher’s arm, a Zunino-grade cannon to control the running game – he was a bat-first catcher with half a bat. But 2018 showed a lot of promise. Narvaez hit 9 HRs, tripling the 3 he hit in 2016-17 combined. There’s a bit more whiffs now, but a high walk rate and mediocre power is pretty darn good, especially at that position. Here’s an M fan’s take, from USSMariner.com

https://mobile.twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1069078662077665280 Now the Mets will help rebuild CLE by sending their two best prospects over for Kluber...or worse, get in a bidding war with Yankees and send an even better package.

The M’s are about to trade 2B Robinson Cano and CL Edwin Diaz to the Mets – the actual Mets – in exchange for top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and the contracts of Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak. It’s a franchise-altering deal, one that sends off the biggest trading chip the franchise has moved in years, and one that firmly closes the door on any form of contention in the next few years. A deal this big takes time, so we’ve watched the initial speculation, counter-offers, and analysis play out publicly over several days. It’s at once fascinating and awful. The M’s are obviously desperate to move on from Cano. The question is why: it can’t purely be a cost-saving move, as with the money they’d reportedly send to New York AND by taking on Bruce and Swarzak, they don’t really save a lot, especially in the next 2-3 years. Edwin Diaz garnered a lot of attention from other clubs – how could he not? – and the M’s still seem hell-bent on packaging him with Cano. Now, I think Cano’s contract has always been overplayed. Yes, it’s a lot of money, and yes, it runs through his age-40 season, but what gets lost here is that Cano’s been productive in his time with Seattle. Yes, he missed 80 games last year, and that probably led to some of the urgency with which Jerry Dipoto shopped him this month, but people are referring to him as an albatross or simply as a cautionary tale about long contracts. No; Robinson Cano is *still* an excellent player, and will add value on the field wherever he plays next year. Is he worth his contract? He’s projected for 3 wins next season, and at ~8-9 per, that’s $24-27 million, or right in line with what he’ll get. The problem is that the M’s will be paying about half of that amount. At ~$12 M per year, Cano looks like a decent bargain, particularly in the early years. “What about his age 39-40 years?” you ask? Who cares? He’ll have provided plenty of surplus value once you account for the M’s kicking in all of that money. The M’s are building a contender, it’s just in New York. That’s not to say the deal is as disastrous as it first appeared. The M’s now get two prospects that easily slide into the front end of their top 10, and Anthony Swarzak had a brilliant 2017 before an awful 2018 turned him into a salary-matching throw-in that probably undersells him a bit. I’m not sure I love this deal, especially without knowing what, say, Philadelphia would’ve traded for Diaz alone, but I’m just struck by the weirdness of it. What about Cano’s personality or what about the clubhouse’s demeanor in the 2nd half did Dipoto attribute to Cano? For a year or two, the M’s had been doing everything they could to counter the old narrative that Cano was selfish. We’ve seen him work with plenty of young hitters, going back to Justin Smoak, Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, and then youngsters this season. We watched the loose, laughter-filled competitions that Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano would organize for the M’s in the spring, and as much as anything, that camaraderie was singled out as a reason why the M’s were blowing their pythagorean record out of the water in early 2018. Not long after, the M’s are apparently deciding to pay handsomely to be rid of one of the architects of that culture. Meanwhile, the Mets, long seen as loathe to spend money following the Bernie Madoff-fueled losses their owners absorbed, will take on a long-term contract right when they’re trying to extend Cy Young winner Jacob de Grom. Both teams can probably come out of this claiming victory. The Mets get a ton of money to go along with their new obligations, they get one of the best relievers alive (who happens to be earning next to nothing), AND they keep their top prospects in Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez. The M’s can say they get future flexibility to add star-level players AND get two very good prospects for a system that needs them desperately. They recognize that what the M’s of 2019-2020 need *least* are shut-down relievers, so better to move them now. That approach also led to today’s rather more modest deal. The M’s are sending Alex Colome to the White Sox in exchange for catcher Omar Narvaez. At first glance, this is simply great for the M’s. The M’s do not need a great set-up man or closer in Colome, and I remain somewhat skeptical that he’s great at all. He’s had a FIP in the mid 3’s 3 of the past 4 years, and he hasn’t shown a *persistent* ability to strand runners the way he did in 2016. He’s a good player, but not a transcendent one – not when the average reliever has a K% just 2 percentage points behind Colome’s 2018 mark. Narvaez is an intriguing guy. He’s 26, bats lefty, and draws a ton of walks. Coming into 2018, that was essentially the sum total of his attributes: he had zero power, and hadn’t shown consistent hitting ability in the minors beyond a good walk rate and low Ks. Worse, he didn’t have a classic catcher’s arm, a Zunino-grade cannon to control the running game – he was a bat-first catcher with half a bat. But 2018 showed a lot of promise. Narvaez hit 9 HRs, tripling the 3 he hit in 2016-17 combined. There’s a bit more whiffs now, but a high walk rate and mediocre power is pretty darn good, especially at that position. ussmariner.com

Relievers – The Braves will be very active in the free agency and trade front for relievers. Craig Kimbrel will be the top target, which would push Arodys Vizcaino to 8th inning and AJ Minter to 7th inning. A dominant closer will be the primary target for this core.

Well, technically Haniger is still 27, but fine. He will be 28 before next season. He has also progressed from 0.3 to 2.5 to 4.6 in terms of his fWAR values, so nobody knows exactly what his real value is, away from Safeco. As far as I know, he's also been fairly consistent with his defensive performance, despite playing a corner...that still has a lot of value (see Heyward or Alex Gordon). I'll concede the fact that Yelich averaged a 4.1 over the 4 seasons prior to going over to Milwaukee. Yelich turned 26 before the 2018 season...so there's really TWO years between them, not the three you quoted. Subtle difference, but still not unimportant. Another factor is the Mariners already dumped the Cano contract...and, while they still have the Felix Hernandez and Seager deals on the books, but they don't HAVE TO SELL like the Marlins did when new ownership came in. There's nothing resembling a fire-sale at this point, because they've already dealt Paxton/Diaz as well, but they have to balance that retooling with the fact that they have to put a decent team out on the field unless they're going to totally rebuild (which that market might not tolerate, since it has been 17 years since their last playoff appearance, the longest streak in baseball.)

Referring to Haniger, not subsidizing a Seager contract takeover.

I mean, even for the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs...the days of payrolls well above the luxury tax threshold are a thing of the past. The Yankees under George Steinbrenner were pretty much the only team in professional baseball where the unique concept of having payroll limitations didn't mean a thing.

Or how about "truce"? Dow Futures (E-Mini Dow 2018, YMZ8) up almost 500 points, market should open at around 26,000...or 3.7% off the all-time high of around 27,000.

Pretty incredible for Segura's worth to have accelerated to a Top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball when he could have been claimed by any MLB team about 3 years ago.

Fine, trade war takes a temporary break/breather, in terms of MARKET PERCEPTIONS. Another writer said "trade war drifts into 2019" if you prefer that take. As far as NAFTA II, if they can even agree on a name for it (USMCA is Trump's preference)...it's definitely going to be blocked by the new House in January unless there are some significant changes. That's not to mention the fact that Mexico just swore in a more left-wing politician as president, so it remains to be seen (he was supposedly going to honor that agreement). We're theoretically going to be able to sell more dairy products to Canada, but one of the stickiest remaining issues is the steel/aluminum tariffs between the 3 countries.

Well, if you sign Pollock to 4 years, you're blocking Robert in the OF (not to mentioning making those other 4 outfield prospects trade bait), or you'd simply have to move Jimenez to DH in order to accommodate an OF comprised of Pollock, Robert and Harper. A nice (albeit expensive) problem to have. If Pollock can find anyone to sign him for 4 or 5 years, I think the White Sox won't chase that. 3 would probably be their limit on a player with so much risk attached, or 3 and some type of mutually-agreed upon option/buyout. Coming off another injury-plagued season, he might prefer to go with a shorter-term deal at a higher average per year, but there's risk for him and his agent either way. The lack of quality OF options available definitely works in his favor, at least in this particular market.