caulfield12

I guess the better question now is what would it actually take to see a change? Sandy Hook? Las Vegas? They couldn’t even get the bump stocks. After Parkland, momentum seemed to shift again with the kids involved, but it eventually dissipates until the next incident (Nelson was very visible on this issue in FL and lost his Senate spot). It seems ages ago already since the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, which became more about anti-Semitism than guns. Part of it is this 24 hour news cycle that has become even more compressed since 2015 and Trump’s daily tweeting bombardment. At any rate, if this guy had a Glock and not an automatic rifle and still killed an experienced officer...someone will argue that the police should be even more heavily armed. Yet arming everyone to the teeth, instead of serving as a deterrent, seems to be setting everyone at hair’s trigger, instead. The cynic within believes not even migrant women and children being gunned down at the border by civilians in mass numbers would move the meter. In fact, it actually might lead to even more migrant shootings within the US as more and more individuals feel empowered to start playing ICE officer/interrogator. And that doesn’t even account for this “war against the media” that can only accelerate so far without tragic consequences.

Well, maybe CNN will have nothing better to do if they boycott the White House after the Acosta banning. 13 dead now...I think everyone is so tired of politics that we have to hope he has no obvious affiliation either way. Emotions are still pretty raw from two weeks ago. I can just imagine if he had any ties to Central America or Mexico, yikes. As it stands there’s supposed to be an announcement today or Fri about making asylum cases at the border next to impossible for one to file. Authorities have not identified any victims inside the bar or the gunman, but a law enforcement source, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the case, described the shooter as a 29-year-old man armed with a Glock .45 handgun and a “smoke device.” The shooter drove his mother’s car to the bar and did not say anything before opening fire, the official said. latimes.com

I would have said this same exact thing about Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Jose Contreras...in the past. You look at your payroll and all of a sudden, you’re the Seattle Mariners and stuck in no man’s land again.

And what if that fails and Arenado re-signs with Colorado? Then you have to go ahead and add Donaldson/Moustakas, Nelson Cruz, McCutcheon/Adam Jones and at least two veteran bullpen guys for this to make any sense. We still don’t have a clue what the Indians will actually do, either. At any rate, to answer your question, there was a domino effect with LaRoche, Robertson and Cabrera, but those were still Tier 2 guys...not the cream of the crop. Same with Frazier or Samardzija. They’re playing in a totally different ballpark right now with the names being bandied about. Unless you had 20/20 hindsight, the odds of hitting a top tier free agent pitcher over the last decade and being completely satisfied with that contract can’t be better than 15% odds...who actually believes we are going to buck those odds, and why?

Generally, you don’t trade your two high affordable and in their prime high quality lefties for an older and definitely more expensive version...so now we’re putting Corbin in the same category as Darvish, Tanaka and Ohtani...that he’s guaranteed to be the ace and anchor the rotation for the next five years? That was always the ONLY prior justification provided by Hahn for potentially spending $125 million on a pitcher. Well, we don’t need THAT exact pitcher for another one or two years...which means the risk is even higher of an injury before 2021. If we were already going adding Harper/Machado...THEN adding Corbin on top, you could see the logic of it. But there needs to be a superstar position player to even start dreaming of being competitive the next two seasons. Seriously, we sign Corbin and maybe get 159 extra season tickets sold. He doesn’t move the meter...not nearly as much as JD Martinez/Cain/Yelich moves do. Pitching is way too volatile. Look at the supposed boy genius Epstein with Darvish and Chatwood.

It equally makes no sense to overspend on a pitcher who is definitely not an ace, is switching from the NL to the AL and nothing resembling a pitcher’s park...and expect anything but typical Sox free agency results. Its idiotic. You want pitchers? Go out and trade guys for Gray that have three years in their prime at much more affordable prices. We have been down this road before. Big name free agent acquisition blows up in their face...there’s no payroll flexibility to go beyond $125-135 million, team ends up treading water or going backwards. There’s just no way in hell they are going to add $80-100 million to the payroll in one offseason. Even if the Indians traded Kluber, they’re going to get major leaguers or AA/AAA prospects that are going to get playing time as rookies. Unless you can guarantee 3/5ths of the Indians rotation going down to injury, we’re not within striking distance. It’s one thing to add Harper or Machado one or two years early. It’s quite another to overpay on the FA pitching market. I mean, we couldn’t even survive the John Danks contract blowing up, and that’s half of what Corbin’s going to get. Let the contending teams overpay.

Should have kept Sale or Quintana if the plan was to replace them with a lesser but almost equally expensive version of Jon Lester (circa 2014).

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/multiple-people-injured-reported-shooting-california-bar-085504878--abc-news-topstories.html Gunman is apparently among the dead...took place near Pepperdine University, first officer to respond shot and killed, students apparently involved, line dancing/ country bar https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/california-shooting-intl/index.html

Trading Hansen, Burger and Sheets when their values are at a nadir is the definition of going against buy low/sell high. Conversely, we’re overvaluing Narvaez if we think the Rockies would even consider dealing him for Narvaez. They’d ask for 2 of Burger/Hansen/Dunning and Narvaez to start out with. If it was just one of those three prospects and Narvaez, it might still be too light.

Of course, (for 2019 alone) the Mariners are still stuck with King Felix ($27 million), Cano ($24 million)...even Seager is $19 million, which seems crazy, although he was pretty darned good before last year. That's more or less $70 million. And it doesn't even include another $50 million to Leake, Segura, Dee Gordon and Nicasio. The only contracts that could be relatively easy to move there are Segura and Seager (will have to send back something really nice or eat salary). This is the exact position the White Sox don't want to be in in 2022-23-24...with a handful of overpriced veterans they're going to have to offload at 25 or 50 cents on the dollar. And they're still cutting payroll even with a billion dollar tv rights deal in place for Root Sports.

If they can get someone like C. Allen, Britton, Miller, Familia or Herrera for an advantageous 1 or 2 year deal...great. But not at inflated/overpay prices. There's got to be some vets out there who are looking for that opportunity to grab a closer's job by the horns and re-establish their value again...that will be coming in at lesser rates than Kimbrel. Take on Jansen, maybe...but his stuff really deteriorated down the stretch. Too risky at those salary numbers.

Florida and Ohio governors’ jobs to the GOP loom large...but that could be offset by Sherrod Brown as President or more likely VP on 2020 ticket. Still a ways to go in resolving Nelson/Scott, Montana, Arizona and the GA Governor’s race. O’Rourke, Sanders, Brown, Harris and Warren the five best-positioned to take up progressive flag. Pelosi, go away!!...Trump is raring to tear into you like red meat again...a younger Dem without such negative poll numbers nationally would be the better choice to turn over the position to in the summer of 2020, before she gets weaponized in the presidential election.

Cardinals logically being linked to Harper...especially (or despite?) after losing out on Price and Heyward, positive momentum to Cubs and Brewers.

Sox lucky to be in the best division for rebuilding. Astros have a ton of talent still, and the Angels have both Trout/Ohtani and an owner willing to spend in a big market...along with a new manager.

https://sports.yahoo.com/9-former-athletes-running-office-performed-tuesdays-election-053416828.html Former WR Anthony Gonzalez, Colin Allred, Napoleon Harris and Royals’ 2B Frank White win various elections...

You’re willing to sign Happ for how much and how many years? Seems like much better move 2 years down the line...whereas we might be forced into moving on some positional players earlier than we originally wanted. Just so many things that can go wrong with veteran pitching you’re paying market value or even higher.

30 million increase in voters, from 83 million in 2014 to 113 million plus, an increase of around 35%, roughly. Normally, Presidents with a popularity rating below 50% lose an average of 37 seats...Obama lost 63 in 2010, but the country is still 75% center right (especially on financial issues) and this election will end up around +29-33 for the Dems due principally to the fact that this is one of the strongest economies in a long time (at least for the top 25% of Americans) and higher healthcare costs haven’t fully come home to roost quite yet. Tester still has a good chance in MT, Sinema maybe 25% in AZ....Nelson and Scott would have a runoff in FL if the final margin is 0.5% or less. Elected three 20 somethings in Finkenauer, Katie Hill (CA) and Ocasio-Cortez...two Muslim American women in MI and MN. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/opinions/why-this-blue-wave-was-no-tsunami-granderson/index.html

Trump’s tactics worked in the South, Indiana, Missouri and maybe Montana... The problem for the GOP is losing PA, Michigan, Iowa (3 of 4 seats, King almost lost and Reynolds barely held on), Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. Nevada is going more and more Dem. Barely held onto Arizona. It ORourke didn’t go so far to the left, he could/should have won Texas with $70+ million behind him. Walker and Kobach are gone. When the dust settles, the pickup in the House will be around 30 seats. That said, Abrams, Gillum and ORourke each lost, along with that Iron Stache dude. Four high profile losses. If Trump goes to war with the House, he won’t win. If they decide to work together and Trump betrays the GOP on areas like infrastructure, lower prescription costs, pre-existing conditions and actually lowers taxes on the middle class (only), he has a very good chance to win again in 2020. It just depends on which side makes a better argument to the 40% in the middle, not the 30% that are hyper partisan on both extreme wings ideologically. Trump controls his own fate. More culture wars in the middle of an expected recession and he’s doomed to bring down the GOP brand for a decade. (The Handel/GA 6 seat flipped back to the Dems by the slimmest of margins.)

Looking like 226-209, but that could shift by 2-3 either way in the House. Walker finally lost in WI. Trend against Dems continued everywhere except for Nevada. AZ barely went to McSally. Tons of Republican seats that were chopped down from 20-30% wins in 2014 and 2016 to losses or slight victories this time around. The Handel race in GA (she's the one who beat Jon Ossoff in the hugely expensive runoff is up by just 57 votes with 100% reporting, Chris Collins of insider trading fame in NY went from 34.4% margin down to 1.1%, and it's still not over officially). 4 "lean Dem" seats are still within 1%, along with 6 "lean GOP" House seats. California 25, 48, Michigan 8, Minnesota 1 could still go either way...same with California 10, ME 2, GA 6 (Handel), NC 9, NJ 3 and NM 2 are all within 1%, too.

Also, there's NO WAY IN HE-L-L Hillary Clinton is going to run again, let alone win the nomination. The Me-Too movement and her husband's past transgressions (look at the trend of white/educated women voting DEM this election, it's almost 2 to 1) make this a complete non-starter.

Looks like Scott Walker has 9 Lives. That race is going to go down to the middle of the morning, by the looks of it. 3000-ish vote spread with 6.7% still left to report (which typically would favor the Dems.)

The headline story will be the Senate and FL/GA for the GOP. The even bigger story for DEMS is the rejection of Trumpism across the Midwest and Rust Belt. Those 77,000 votes in 2016 are quickly evaporating. PA is a massacre, Wisconsin might be one as well (Ryan will keep his seat intact because the Dems ran someone with too much baggage against his successor)...Michigan and Iowa are coming back home into the Democratic column after flirting with Trump and rejecting Clinton (equal doses of both). Ohio is going to be another huge battleground, looks to be going GOP again for governor, following up Kasich's more moderating tone. Trump had a great opening these last two years to move towards the middle and wipe out liberalism...and that chance is now blown. With a strong economy, if he had fixed the Obamacare loophole/donut and balanced the tax cut more evenly between the rich/corporations and middle class...and not started an unnecessary trade war with China (the tariffs were a bad strategy, all he needed to do was build a coalition with Europe and Japan/South Korea/India and they could have extracted even bigger concessions than what we'll receive eventually). You would never know (from the following map) that America has never been more divided...at least since the 1960's/Watergate or the Civil War.

Things are looking up for Reddy in Iowa. It would be a shock if King lost (losing to Scholten in the early going), but the other three seats and governor could all go back to the Dems by the end of the night.

Pettie, don't get the thread closed, lol... In the battlefield (vulnerable GOP) House races, the Dems are up 12-9 so far, with PA-14 and potentially NJ-5 the only ones that look like they could be going the other direction. Net House pickup is 12 seats, so far. PA has been a wipe-out for the GOP, compared to the last few elections...GOP can take solace in FL, Georgia, Indiana, ND. Losing PA is also going to make winning it in 2020 for Trump a huge hill to climb (twice). Trump will still be able to declare victory...especially if Gillum and Abrams both lose their races. It means we'll see more of the same for the next two years (immigration/identity-based politics). Knocking off Scott Walker and Kobach is a SMALL consolation for Dems. The bloom is already off the Walker rose, after 2016. Cruz just knocked off O'Rourke. Beto's still got a puncher's chance in 2020 if he can figure out how to tack towards the middle and off his extremely progressive views (which never had a chance in a statewide Texas race, but would play much better in a Dem primary assuming he's not hemmed in by Sanders/Warren/K.Harris). Feel that Sanders won't run again, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Kobach lost in Kansas...a decent-sized surprise.