Chicago White Sox

Yoan with a wRC+ of 152 now. Kid is an absolute fucking stud!

Thinking through this more, the Bills are probably the team we’d want to trade with if that 4th QB is available at #8. Based on our needs & overall talent, here are the guys that would seem like quality 1st round picks for us: 1. Chubb, EDGE 2. Barkley, RB 3. Nelson, OG 4. Smith, ILb 5. Edmunds, ILB 6. Ward, CB 7. James, S 8. Fitzpatrick, S 9. Davenport, EDGE Seems there’s a general drop-off after those eight or nine guys depending on how you view Davenport. But any of those guys make a ton of sense and we would be guaranteed our choice of two of them if we trade with the Bills and get the #12 pick. Plus the Bills have six picks in the first three rounds and we might be able to snag one of their 2nd rounders if we swap picks.

When I say if we fail with a draft pick. I don’t mean not developing them into quality major leaguers. You’re spot on with how many quality major leaguers we should be getting out of a draft. I’m speaking more in the sense of seeing general improvements with their flaws and remaining productive as they move up to more advanced levels. Again with Fisher, the odds were always against him becoming a quality major leaguer, but a guy with his hit tool shouldn’t flame out in high A. Now, if he could make it to AAA but a lack of power or defensive ability ultimately prevented him from getting to the pros then that’s still a win in my book. All I’m saying is if we are drafting guys more on baseball ability than pure tools, we should be able see more of them make their way up the system without significant holes in their games if we have a competent development staff in place.

Unless Chubb miraculously falls, I’m hoping three QBs go ahead of us and the Bears are able to trade the #8 pick to a team desperate for that 4th QB. Arizona & Buffalo seem to be the teams to watch. Miami is most definitely a threat to take a QB if one of the big four makes it to them at #11, so both of those teams should be looking to move up into the 5 to 8 range. But with Chubb, Barkley, & Nelson as highly attractive non QB options, the #8 pick could be one of the highest pick that is readily available. Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

You really don’t seem to understand how a rebuild works.

The 2016, 2017, & 2018 draft classes should provide us with a better idea of our organization’s ability to identity & deveop talent. These are Hostetler’s first full drafts and represent a shift in strategy from taking toolsy athletes to selecting true baseball players on the positional side. Guys that fill that bill that were taken in the higher rounds are Collins, Call, Fisher, Burger, Sheets, & Gonzalez. To me, if the majority of those guys fail it will reflect poorly on Getz’s team’s ability to develop talent. So far, the results haven’t been great, although it’s super early and the sample size is minuscule. However, seeing a guy like Fisher whose one true above average tool was his hit tool struggle to make contact on a regular basis is a bit terrifying. And while I’m not ready to write-off Collins by any means, if he fails to hit enough to not even sniff the major leagues as a 1B/DH type at the very least that raises a lot of questions as well.

Albies is a hell of a player, but we’re seeing first-hand why Moncada was considered a generational talent by many evaluators. It’s obviously going to take some time for it all to come together (it’s already starting to), but no sane GM would take Albies over Yoan simply because of a slow start. And to think he’d potentially be out of the game of baseball because of a high K rate is simply ludicrous.

The challenge for us is timing. Jimenez should be up this year. The rest of our real OF talent is in A ball. I have a feeling Robert can move fast and Basabe should hopefully get half a season of playing time in AA this year if all goes well with those two you’re looking at early 2020 ETAs. Adolfo, Rutherford, & Gonzalez are probably a year behind those other two. Ultimately, we can’t wait on all these guys before we attempt to go for it. My expectation is for Robert to be an early 2020 call up and the Sox the trading for a cost-controlled RF prior to the 2020 season or signing a free agent to fill the hole for a couple of years this coming off-season.

Hopefully Zavala can keep this up for another month or two and then they push him to AAA to allow both him & Collins more time catching.

This is a way too pessimistic view of things. If the rebuild takes another three years on top of this one, then something went massively wrong.

We’re going to have to bump that Moncada thread a few months from now. I have a feeling a few won’t like what they see in there.

I think your numbers are spot-on, just tough to say who’d I prefer. I think Harper would be more impactful from a marketing perspective and build some hype for the organization. He also has the higher ceiling and is most certaintly the better player when everyone is clicking. I’d probably go with Harper, especially if Machado won’t budge off the need to play SS.

Last year was a fluke though. Avi improved in several areas, but the BABIP was always going to regress and bring him down to a 2.5 WARish player. The problem for Avi is he needs to get more loft on the ball to take advantage of his raw power and unfortunately he continues to drive the ball into the ground. Without that power improvement, his days of being a 4 WAR player are over. And given our minor league depth, there is absolutely no reason to spend money locking up a 2.5 WAR player. Also, I can't understate how much money we're going to have in the coming years. It seems like many here think we'll add one stud reliever and blow all our money. We should be able to multiple impact free agents when the time is right and that's including a Machado/Harper tier superstar.

Give me the superstar every day of the week and I'll move the "good & cheap" option to fill other holes or add prospect depth. There are only so many spots on a roster and you should always look to maximize the output of those, especially when you're sitting on millions and millions of dollars. Plus baseball is slowly moving towards super-teams and we're going to need load up on talent if want to take on the Yankees a few years from now. And Avi Garcia is not a 4 WAR player, so he certainly shouldn't prevent us from adding Bryce Harper. We'd be nuts to pass on a potential OF of Jimenez, Robert, & Harper, even if that means trading our minor league depth (Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, etc.).

Great post & 100% agree. I’d happily take either guy and hope the Sox feel the same. These are the two guys we should be focused on them. Miss on them, Arenado becomes a solid fallback option the following year.

Damn, there is that HoT FiRe ?!

Awesome! I threw this out there yesterday as an idea if Avi were to miss time. Here's how I would like to see the lineups shake out: vs. RHP vs. LHP 1. Moncada, 2B Anderson, SS 2. Sanchez, 3B Moncada, 2B 3. Abreu, 1B Abreu, 1B 4. Delmonico, LF Davidson, DH 5. Davidson, DH Castillo, C 6. Palka, RF Delmonico, LF 7. Anderson, SS Thompson, RF 8. Castillo, C Sanchez, 3B 9. Thompson, CF Engel, CF

I’m suggesting they may prioritize other needs because of those guys. That may very well be a dumb suggestion, just throwing it out there because I’m bored and would love to somehow add Machado.

Great post Jimmy. I’ve been ragging on Collins quite a bit lately, but that has more to do with approach at the plate right now than doubting his ability. I fully believe he can be a valuable major league contributor despite a low BA if he can stick at catcher defensively. The key though is making sure he’s swinging enough and hitting the ball hard when he does, because it’s the mix of power & OBP that will make or break his offensive game. From what I’ve seen this year he’s been far too selective, passing on hittable pitches and getting himself behind in counts. When he gets behind and going into protect mode, the contact has been very weak. While he’s obviously been unlucky, his BABIP should probably be on the low end of the spectrum. The good news from what I can tell (and I’m no expert), but this is all approach based and can be fixed. Way too early to write him off as the package of tools / skills are there to be a very valuable player. He just needs to figure his shit out.

Just thinking about this, but does the Yankees having an IF of Gregorious, Torres, & Andujar change their desire to add Machado to a record breaking contract? If so, who else would be serious threats to add him?

Thanks for sharing. This probably isn't the place for it, but if we were to draft Madrigal I don't think moving Moncada off 2B is a serious option now. I know for a while people were tempted to play him in CF, but he's simply too good of a defender at 2B to consider such a change. And 3B would be a waste of his incredible range IMO. Therefore, Madrigal would have to steal the SS job from Anderson or be trade bait.

I think he'll be up after a couple more starts. Right now he's at 26 high A starts, he won't make more than 30. Kid is clearly ready for AA.

I agree with this take. If Hansen were 100% healthy right now I’d take him over Cease, but given the uncertainty over his injury I’d say it’s a toss up.

Some stats on Yoan so far this year: 19th in fWAR at 1.0 57th in wRC+ at 131 2nd in avg exit velocity 1st in base-running value 23rd in defensive value This kid is already a fucking monster and will only get better if he can cut that K rate down a bit.

Can someone more stats savvy provide a summary of Moncada’s defense? I’d love to hear what the advanced metrics actually say. He’s looked fantastic in the field to me, but the eye test obviously has its flaws. Part of the reason I ask is to see if his defensive value is sustainable. Right now he’s on pace for an 8 WAR season and I’m just curious how much of that (if at all) is driven by flukey defense. I hope the answer is it hasn’t, because if that’s the case the kid will blow everyone expectations for 2017 out of the water.