ChiSox59

If the first guy is Wheeler, I don't think it makes sense to sign another multi-year SP unless something falls into your lap. Ryu on a 2/$32M would definitely qualify as that, though I expect him to beat that deal handily. If the first guy is Ryu, then yah, I think the Sox should broaden their horizons a bit because I think the 2nd SP added in that scenario needs to be a little stronger than the guys you're likely to get on 1 year deals. So not as much a change of heart, just a contingency plan if Wheeler gets too expensive, or just decides to sign elsewhere out of personal preference.

Yes, I don't think there is any doubt that large market team prospects get overvalued. I don't think I am the first person to come up with that theory.

The only way trading Madrigal makes any sense is if you sign Rendon. In other words, its not going to happen.

I think its mainly because Rutherford came to the Sox with a (Yankee tainted) pedigree. Former 1st rounder and top 100 prospect. Basabe and Gonzalez both sucked last season, but neither were top 100 prospects at any point. Hard to really read much into Adolfo's 2019 - patience is warranted there.

Ehhh, I think he'd be a good fit if he weren't suspended the first month and half when frankly that is when we'd need him most.

Fangraphs projected 2/$32, and MLBTR 3/$54. Both seem pretty damn reasonable to me, but 2/$32M would be such a home run signing IMO.

Angels are a possibility, yah. They need Cole/Strasburg, plus at least one other above average SP. Their rotation is a mess. I doubt the Twins would go over 5/$100M.

Right, I think it starts to make sense to roll the dice of Ryu if Wheeler starts to approach Corbin territory. Can't say I'd blame the Sox too much for bowing out at that point, though I don't expect it to get there. I do think if you go the Ryu route, your 2nd SP add needs to be someone a little more interesting. I've felt that the Sox priority needs to be to add 1 high end SP + one 1 year-deal SP. But if Ryu is the guy because Wheeler gets too expensive, maybe you splurge a little bit on that 2nd piece and go with someone like Hamels or Gibson who may require a 2 year deal.

Yah, I still think Ryu would be a decent fallback option to Wheeler. Honestly, if Ryu stays healthy (big if), there is an argument that could be made that he is the better pitcher.

I actually think the 1 year left is a benefit. Plenty of good options for RF on the FA market next offseason. Gives Adolfo one more year to pop. I think it makes a ton of sense. Plugging RF with a DH and committing to a poor defensive OF is not something I am super interested in, though I guess you could always trade Castellanos. I wouldn't HATE the move, just think there are better options that should be attainable for a reasonable ask.

What about Billy Hamilton?

I am in fact a betting man. I think it will be close, but not nearly enough to swap me to Castellanos based on all the other factors I described in the post you quoted.

What is the benefit to doing that over trading for a guy on 1 year deal that won't cost much like Joc or Peralta? Peralta, for example, will be cheaper than Castellanos in 2020 ($8-9M vs. ~$15M), 1 year commitment versus likely 4 year commitment, good defender vs. bad defender, great versus right handed pitching versus not good versus right handed pitching, leaves RF open in 2020 for better player (Betts, Springer, Brantley) vs. paying good money for a DH to plug RF for next 4 seasons. It may be tad easier to acquire a FA, and who knows how motivated AZ would be to trade Peralta, but he is just a much better fit, IMO. Also, FWIW, Peralta also has higher career wrC+ 116 vs 112 to Castellanos.

MN is definitely worse. I believe MN either has the highest or 2nd highest tax rate in the baseball. But as someone else mentioned, at this point, the Twins have pretty much just as much financial flexibility as the Sox do.

Seems about right. Maybe a tad heavy on the McCann DH starts, but this should be a decent blueprint for the time share. Also think Sox will get Eloy in the DH rotation occasionally.

Say what?

You're in luck. Not a single one of them remain in the org.

What an you really going to get for McCann though? Nothing that moves the needle. And I honestly feel like McCann maximizes Grandal's impact on this particular roster. Grandal has also struggled late in seasons, likely due to fatigue. I absolutely love the Grandal/McCann tandem.

Really hope 5/$100M is the max for Wheeler. Felt good about it being $100M earlier in the offseason, but it is just so hard to know - that Corbin deal scares me a bit. Obviously would still be happy as a fan with a 5/$110M or $6/$125M deal, but man that is a lot of money to bet on a good not great pitcher. At some point, it just makes sense to spend the extra $10M AAV and actually get one of the best pitchers in the game.

Leury hits LHP well enough that he could be the LHP platoon guy for a guy like Joc or Peralta.

I mean, two of his last three seasons he’s produced just 2.4 and 3.1 fWAR seasons. That is pretty much neutral value at $30M AAV. I wouldn’t be shocked if he has another 5+ WAR season or two, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t. So much of his value is derived from his plus defense, and while I don’t expect that to change overnight, he’s unlikely to be a plus defender on the back half of that deal. Machado is going to need to have a few very nice seasons in the front half of that deal, because the back half may be ugly. I also just feel - and to be clear I was willing to take the risk a year ago - that MM is a guy that may not age great. He came into the league super young, he has somewhat questionable makeup and is now one of the richest baseball players ever. I just don’t really think Machados strongest seasons are ahead of him, and I don’t really blame the Sox for not wanting to push beyond $250M with plenty of fair incentives should MM still be a quality player 8 years down the line. ultimately, I think it will Be a bullet dodged despite how hard I took the news when he signed in SD.

I wanted MM as much as anybody here, but I really can’t complain with the way things have tuned out. Moncada has turned into a star at 3B (sure, could have happened at 2B too). Give me Grandal + Wheeler + big time RF in 2021 FA and I think I’d prefer that allocation of funds as opposed to $300M to just MM. I don’t expect it to be too long before that Machado contract is an albatross.

Find a relatively cheap to acquire but solid one year stop gap for 2020 and go for the gold next year in FA. Plenty of great options headlines by Mookie, Springer, Joc and Brantley in 21 FA class. If Adolfo blows up in meantime, great. Frankly not expecting much from the Rutherford, Gonzalez and Basabe trio at this point, and Walker is still at least 2 years away. I do think Micker can still be that guy if he can stay healthy.

They’re the same people that b**** and moan about Tatis. And then when Madrigal or Cease become stars in Boston and Mookie signs somewhere after one year in Chicago, they’ll have a new negative bandwagon to jump on. The whole premise of trading for Mookie Betts is ridiculously dumb and short sighted.

Thanks for explaining. My take is that trading Cease, Madrigal or any significant piece for 1 year of Mookie Betts is fucking stupid. The Sox would still be a longshot to win the division. Its not worth it, and any package we can create that doesn't include a significant piece isn't going to get accept.