It's that time of year again...2016 edition

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Gordon Beckham's CAREER WAR with the Sox was 7.6

 

What's the average career WAR for a first round pick from the White Sox?

 

How many games do you lose to get that pick to produce that WAR?

 

If we make decisions based on expected value, which is an extremely rational way of looking at things, it seems like we are rooting to lose 5 games now to hit the once in a lifetime lottery for a superstar or....get those 5 wins back incrementally?

 

It would be one thing if top draft picks made a HUGE impact on games, but unlike, say, basketball where a top draft pick can completely change your team, it seems like a once in a lifetime thing for a baseball team to get that kind of pick, and even then it's more about luck than a particular draft position.

 

I suppose I'm saying I can't come up with a reason to lose games to improve upon a draft position that seems to have an arbitrary impact on the team as a whole.

 

Do you think it makes a difference to win 76 games and miss the playoffs, or win 70 games and miss the playoffs?

[Kalapse]

The higher the draft pick the larger the bonus pool, that's reason enough for me, having more money to spend is HUGELY important.

[Bob Sacamano]

Do you think it makes a difference to win 76 games and miss the playoffs, or win 70 games and miss the playoffs?

 

This.

 

The higher the draft pick the larger the bonus pool, that's reason enough for me, having more money to spend is HUGELY important.

 

And this.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I know I've said it a couple times but now that we've seen two drafts from Hostetler and seeing some of Paddy's signings come over, those two can stay for now.

 

Buddy Bell on the other hand needs to get the hell out.

 

I agree. I want to clean house with the coaching staff, pro scouts. This team needs some wholesale changes before we sell. Since the season is over, I'm rooting for success from certain players and losses for the highest possible draft pick.

Edited August 2, 2016 by SouthSideSale

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Too small of sample size for me to include either one of them yet. Only reason I include Rodon already is because I don't forsee him ever being sent back down again. I think he's a lock. Anderson and Fulmer still could, IMO.

Anderson won't unless he falls of a cliff which he probably won't. He's more than held his own.

 

Fulmer should be sent down or start up here immediately. He's awful out of the pen. Control and velocity issues.

[Flash Tizzle]

Do you think it makes a difference to win 76 games and miss the playoffs, or win 70 games and miss the playoffs?

Also that line of thinking about winning only serves one benefit, immediate gratification. But does it matter past that day? Or month? Do we really care now how their record was in 2013, 2014? Hell, 2015 we only care to serve as an immediate comparison to now. Just think, two more losses in 2014 and we could have drafted Benintendi. But thank god we had those two extra wins!!

 

 

[Kalapse]

Also that line of thinking about winning only serves one benefit, immediate gratification. But does it matter past that day? Or month? Do we really care now how their record was in 2013, 2014? Hell, 2015 we only care to serve as an immediate comparison to now. Just think, two more losses in 2014 and we could have drafted Benintendi. But thank god we had those two extra wins!!

That's the other thing: top 10 draft picks tend to begin their careers on top prospect lists and hold tremendous trade value, that value can skyrocket with a fast start in pro ball and they tend to hold that value longer partly due to how high they were drafted (a guy like Mark Appel.)

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Also that line of thinking about winning only serves one benefit, immediate gratification. But does it matter past that day? Or month? Do we really care now how their record was in 2013, 2014? Hell, 2015 we only care to serve as an immediate comparison to now. Just think, two more losses in 2014 and we could have drafted Benintendi. But thank god we had those two extra wins!!

 

Exactly. Now who knows if the Sox would have actually taken Benintendi, but with those 2 extra meaningless wins, we never even had the chance to.

 

Just lose baby!

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

With tonight's loss, we now have the 11th pick, winning the tie-breaker with KC.

 

3 GB of the Brewers for the 10th pick.

14 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick.

Edited August 3, 2016 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[greg775]

With tonight's loss, we now have the 11th pick, winning the tie-breaker with KC.

 

3 GB of the Brewers for the 10th pick.

14 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick.

With all the games we have left vs. the Central I'd think we'll get the fifth or sixth pick. If the team totally sucks in September and goes something like 7-24 we might do even better than that.

I'd still rather win, though. I don't care about the damn draft. We'll get somebody and nobody knows if that player will ever do squat in the big leagues.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'd still rather win, though. I don't care about the damn draft. We'll get somebody and nobody knows if that player will ever do squat in the big leagues.

 

Then this thread isn't the one for you.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

That's the other thing: top 10 draft picks tend to begin their careers on top prospect lists and hold tremendous trade value, that value can skyrocket with a fast start in pro ball and they tend to hold that value longer partly due to how high they were drafted (a guy like Mark Appel.)

 

Another good point.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Here's a nice source.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/...ankings/majors/

[StrangeSox]

You guys don't understand, prospects and draft picks are actually bad and there's no reason to have them around.

[hi8is]

You guys don't understand, prospects and draft picks are actually bad and there's no reason to have them around.

Uh. Yea.

[Greg Hibbard]

Call me old-fashioned, but I think it's much better to cultivate an atmosphere where you expect to win and play absolutely as hard you can with what you have, every day, than to try to lose 90 games instead of 85 in order to get a crap-shoot draft pick that doesn't really pan out, help the team much, 80-90% of the time going back 26 years.

[bigruss]

Call me old-fashioned, but I think it's much better to cultivate an atmosphere where you expect to win and play absolutely as hard you can with what you have, every day, than to try to lose 90 games instead of 85 in order to get a crap-shoot draft pick that doesn't really pan out, help the team much, 80-90% of the time going back 26 years.

I wouldn't even call that old fashioned, it's just wrong. Old fashioned is under the belief that the better draft pick you have, the more likely you are to add impact talent to your organization. It's why the worst team picks first.

 

You know what helps build a winning culture? Having good players.

[Greg Hibbard]

I wouldn't even call that old fashioned, it's just wrong. Old fashioned is under the belief that the better draft pick you have, the more likely you are to add impact talent to your organization. It's why the worst team picks first.

 

You know what helps build a winning culture? Having good players.

 

 

Baseball is a stats games, so what I'm really driving at here is....show me the empirical data of the impact of the draft on something like WAR, long term. Or World Series titles?

 

Pre free agency, the draft meant a whole lot more. It's how all teams assuredly got better. These days? It's a complete dice roll. With all the overseas players creeping in from Cuba, Japan, DR, other places, and with the huge impact of FA signings on teams, the draft and particularly the first round of the draft seems to have diminished impact on the chances of a team to get really good.

 

It already had arguably a lesser impact anyway. At best you were getting a player 1-2 years away from ML ready, and at best he was one player in a lineup of nine. Sure, there have been those difference makers like Thomas, Bonds, Griffey. The list goes on. And certainly a player like Chris Sale - it's impossible to argue that his value isn't through the roof compared to most.

 

However, I think there's little evidence to suggest that having a marginally higher pick in the draft is how certain teams have built winners recently. Do you disagree?

[Greg Hibbard]

My counterpoint is essentially that by putting players you have (and will have) next year in a position where they are playing hard in august and september as spoilers, even in meaningful games, has an intangible carryover to the following season if you retain that core. I don't disagree that the difference between winning and losing 70-80 games doesn't matter - my argument is that intending to lose games goes against fundamental baseball strategy and undermines building a winning culture. In other words, I see no empirical value in willfully losing. Sure, getting a higher draft pick may net you a really good player - like 3% of the time. Or the team ahead of you may pick the lesser value anyway.

[Hatchetman]

However, I think there's little evidence to suggest that having a marginally higher pick in the draft is how certain teams have built winners recently. Do you disagree?

 

If they get the #10 slot, they won't forfeit the pick when they sign a free agent. If they get #11 they will. Big difference.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

If they get the #10 slot, they won't forfeit the pick when they sign a free agent. If they get #11 they will. Big difference.

 

Also, his argument is that a team shouldn't "intend to lose games". Well, obviously. No one is suggesting that Robin is telling the players to throw the games. But as a fan who has no impact on the team, I am HOPING they lose every game.

[gatnom]

My counterpoint is essentially that by putting players you have (and will have) next year in a position where they are playing hard in august and september as spoilers, even in meaningful games, has an intangible carryover to the following season if you retain that core. I don't disagree that the difference between winning and losing 70-80 games doesn't matter - my argument is that intending to lose games goes against fundamental baseball strategy and undermines building a winning culture. In other words, I see no empirical value in willfully losing. Sure, getting a higher draft pick may net you a really good player - like 3% of the time. Or the team ahead of you may pick the lesser value anyway.

 

It's worth noting that the White Sox are actually trying to do this, and all discussion of draft picks is purely done by fans. Since most people believe the season to be over, they just would prefer to get better prospects out of the next draft instead of rooting for wins in meaningless games. It's a given that the Sox are trying to win. Nobody is willfully losing; hoping they get a good draft pick too is a separate thing.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Also, his argument is that a team shouldn't "intend to lose games". Well, obviously. No one is suggesting that Robin is telling the players to throw the games. But as a fan who has no impact on the team, I am HOPING they lose every game.

 

Exactly. They're not going out ttrying to lose games. The results certainly make it seem like they are however.

[lasttriptotulsa]

It's worth noting that the White Sox are actually trying to do this, and all discussion of draft picks is purely done by fans. Since most people believe the season to be over, they just would prefer to get better prospects out of the next draft instead of rooting for wins in meaningless games. It's a given that the Sox are trying to win. Nobody is willfully losing; hoping they get a good draft pick too is a separate thing.

 

When you have young players that you are developing like Anderson, Tilson, Rodon, Saladino and Sanchez there are no such things as meaningless games. You can't root for a team to lose but expect these players to do well and develop into what we need them to. Winning and good play go hand in hand.

[StrangeSox]

Also, his argument is that a team shouldn't "intend to lose games". Well, obviously. No one is suggesting that Robin is telling the players to throw the games. But as a fan who has no impact on the team, I am HOPING they lose every game.

 

I also wish that they would have traded away at least a few pieces, which would make them more likely to lose games in the short term. I don't think anyone is calling for them to intentionally throw the games.