So Chris Sale in his last 5 outings has pitched 41 innings and given up 9 runs. He has a 1-2 record to show for it. I'd like to show some appreciation for the guy so I thought I'd look at the AL Cy Young race to see if he has a shot at it. Would be a cool little accomplishment in an otherwise disappointing season. So here's the breakdown of a very close race:

 

Chris Sale 15-8 3.03 ERA 1.02 WHIP 5.3 WAR 201.2 IP 205 Ks 28 Starts

 

He has been great. Hopefully his suspension doesn't cost him the award.

 

Corey Kluber 16-9 3.05 ERA 1.04 WHIP 6.2 WAR 197.2 IP 208 Ks 29 Starts

 

His WAR is considerably higher than Sale's, probably due to a higher K/9. Hard to see too much difference between he and Sale.

 

Rick Porcello 20-3 3.21 ERA 1.02 WHIP 4.5 WAR 193.2 IP 161 Ks 29 Starts

 

Significant advantage in Wins which I'm sure some voters still value highly. Otherwise very good numbers but doesn't stand out.

 

Michael Fulmer 10-6 2.76 ERA 1.05 WHIP 5.0 WAR 143.2 IP 117 Ks 23 Starts

 

Not enough starts to really contend. Will have to be content with the ERA title.

 

Masahiro Tanaka 13-4 3.04 ERA 1.07 WHIP 5.1 WAR 186.2 IP 160 Ks 29 Starts

 

He's on the Yankees so might get a few extra votes for that. I dunno his numbers are great too.

 

Cole Hamels 14-5 3.24 ERA 1.31 WHIP 5.1 WAR 180.2 IP 181 Ks 29 Starts

 

WHIP and ERA too high for my taste. Enjoy the playoffs

 

Justin Verlander 14-8 3.33 ERA 1.03 WHIP 4.9 WAR 200 IP 216 Ks 30 Starts

 

Old reliable having another great year but I think it'll probably be someone else's year

 

Jose Quintana 11-10 3.13 ERA 1.13 WHIP 4.6 WAR 184 IP 165 Ks 28 Starts

 

He's not going to win, as we all well know. But he is great and incredibly consistent.

 

JA Happ 18-4 3.33 ERA 1.17 WHIP 3.8 WAR 170.1 IP 149 Ks 28 Starts

 

Really doesn't belong here but he has a lot of wins. Good job.

 

 

 

 

 

I think Sale and Kluber are equally the most deserving but I bet Porcello wins the award. Obviously there are 3 weeks left so there is a little time left for these guys to improve their chances.

 

Man, if Q didn't have that bad start a few days ago he might have been the frontrunner.

Tanaka/Kluber leads in fWAR. Sale leads in RA9-WAR.

 

Porcello really doesn't deserve to be even top 3.

Man, if Q didn't have that bad start a few days ago he might have been the frontrunner.

 

Eh, any way you spin it, I don't think you can say Quintana is a better candidate than Sale at this point. You could probably make that argument mid-season, but Q's numbers have been slipping since June.

 

Sale's been hurt by home runs recently, which negatively affects his fWAR. He's really not that far away from either Kluber or Tanaka in fWAR to say he doesn't deserve it. But his gigantic lead in RA9-WAR is pretty telling. FWIW, he's got 6.2 RA-9 WAR while the next closest is Kluber with 5.5.

 

Weirdly enough, bWAR, which uses RA9-WAR but adjusts for defense, has Kluber at 6.1 and Sale at 5.2. Which makes little sense to me considering Cleveland's defense is miles better than ours.

Edited September 12, 20169 yr by chw42

It should be Kluber. But Porcello will win.

It should be Kluber. But Porcello will win.

 

 

Agreed on both counts. Unfortunately the voters are still too wrapped up in the thought that you must have the most wins and play for the most successful team to the best pitcher in baseball.

Agreed on both counts. Unfortunately the voters are still too wrapped up in the thought that you must have the most wins and play for the most successful team to the best pitcher in baseball.

 

I think Porcello wins it as well. I heard an announcer say this weekend that 20 wins is a big deal because you don't get a lot of 20 game winners like you used to. I also don't think Porcello is a top #1 starter going into the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the post season when he is matched against other aces.

 

I think Porcello wins it as well. I heard an announcer say this weekend that 20 wins is a big deal because you don't get a lot of 20 game winners like you used to. I also don't think Porcello is a top #1 starter going into the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the post season when he is matched against other aces.

 

he will get shelled

 

porcello is garbage.

porcello will win because he plays for Boston

fWAR...

 

Kluber/Tanaka - 5.0 WAR in 29 starts (0.172 WAR per start)

Sale - 4.8 WAR in 28 starts (0.171 WAR per start)

 

So you are talking about near virtual tie in WAR, besides, Margin of Error for fWAR is 0.5.

 

Now, Baseball Prospectus uses their own form of WAR which accounts for catcher framing. This is important because, as you probably know, the Sox are HORRENDOUS at pitch-framining. So this adds/removes the impact a catcher has on a starter. With that in mind, Sale leads ALL baseball in pitcher WARp.

 

Sale - 6.5

Kluber - 6.2

Price - 6.1

Verlander - 5.8

Archer - 5.3

 

Sale has lost 6.3 runs to his ERA because of that pitch framing. Let's adjust those the top 5 pitchers in ERA to reflect their team's pitch framing....

 

Fulmer - 2.76 ERA to 2.61

Sale - 3.03 ERA to 2.75

Tanaka - 3.04 ERA to 3.12

Kluber - 3.05 ERA to 3.02

Quintana - 3.13 ERA to 2.87

 

 

All that being said, I'm sure Porcello will win. Boston, 20+ wins, nice ERA.

All that being said, I'm sure Porcello will win. Boston, 20+ wins, nice ERA.

 

I'm not directing this to anyone in specific but if Porcello wins then why should we care is Sale or Q ever win 1? It's basically the same as the gold glove and doesn't really reflect anything in today's baseball.

I'll start caring about these awards when we start seeing advanced stats truly have significance of picking the winner of these things.

I'm not directing this to anyone in specific but if Porcello wins then why should we care is Sale or Q ever win 1? It's basically the same as the gold glove and doesn't really reflect anything in today's baseball.

I'll start caring about these awards when we start seeing advanced stats truly have significance of picking the winner of these things.

 

 

One important factor everyone is leaving out. Pitching in big games. Unfortunately Q and Sale do not pitch in big games in August and September. Porcello and to some extent Kluber are. Porcello just beat Toronto on the road and goes against Orioles this week at home. So that is a factor that needs to be added to the mix.

One important factor everyone is leaving out. Pitching in big games. Unfortunately Q and Sale do not pitch in big games in August and September. Porcello and to some extent Kluber are. Porcello just beat Toronto on the road and goes against Orioles this week at home. So that is a factor that needs to be added to the mix.

 

 

I don't think it does because you are penalizing them for something that isn't their fault. You might as well use pitching wins. They're both subjective.

There's just no way Porcello doesn't win it with that record.

Who should win?

 

Player A: 193.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 4.3 fWAR

Player B: 197.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 5 fWAR

Player C: 201.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.8 fWAR

Player D: 186.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 5 fWAR

Player E: 184 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 4.6 fWAR

B

Who should win?

 

Player A: 193.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 4.3 fWAR

Player B: 197.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 5 fWAR

Player C: 201.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.8 fWAR

Player D: 186.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 5 fWAR

Player E: 184 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 4.6 fWAR

 

Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice.

 

Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q.

 

 

 

Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice.

 

Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q.

 

I do like the idea that there should be some weighting for putting up Cy Young numbers in a pennant race versus for a team that isn't in it.

Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice.

 

Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q.

 

 

There shouldn't be though. It's about most valuable in general. Not most valuable on a good team. Rick Porcello isn't having as good of a season as Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Hell, if Jose Quintana were on Boston he'd likely be the overwhelming Cy Young favorite because he'd be hovering around 20 wins as well. If Porcello wins this award, we really should stop giving it out.

There shouldn't be though. It's about most valuable in general. Not most valuable on a good team. Rick Porcello isn't having as good of a season as Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Hell, if Jose Quintana were on Boston he'd likely be the overwhelming Cy Young favorite because he'd be hovering around 20 wins as well. If Porcello wins this award, we really should stop giving it out.

 

Hell, Q with an offense this year is probably hovering around 25 wins.

Who I want to win: Sale

Who will probably win: Porcello

Who should win if the season ended today: Kluber

I do like the idea that there should be some weighting for putting up Cy Young numbers in a pennant race versus for a team that isn't in it.

 

That's a really dumb idea actually. Why should really good pitchers on bad teams be penalized for their teams performance? Should Josh Donaldson get more MVP consideration than Mike Trout since the Angels are garbage? No.

That's a really dumb idea actually. Why should really good pitchers on bad teams be penalized for their teams performance? Should Josh Donaldson get more MVP consideration than Mike Trout since the Angels are garbage? No.

 

Not at all. Pitching in important games should be more important than meaningless ones. It is kind of common sense to me.

Not at all. Pitching in important games should be more important than meaningless ones. It is kind of common sense to me.

 

 

You are penalizing guys for something beyond their control though.