"Does he have like a Cameron Maybin middle, ending up as a good fielder with huge Ks, but still a serviceable player?"

 

 

Again, guys like that are "a dime, a dozen". Why waste a number 11 pick, on that?

Edited June 9, 20178 yr by Lillian

"Does he have like a Cameron Maybin middle, ending up as a good fielder with huge Ks, but still a serviceable player?"

 

 

Again, guys like that are "a dime, a dozen". Why waste a number 11 pick, on that?

 

Guys that make the majors and become serviceable players are not a dime a dozen.

FWIW Callis already has a new piece up with intel that the Twins are now zeroing in on McKay (as a pitcher) instead of Wright.

 

Would post link but on a flight and being lazy.

If you want to take a market efficiency approach to the draft, you can't just assume every player ends up at the same production in the same position.

 

If you look at the analysis of college/high school 1b, tell me how they stack up in mlb production vs others.

Evan White homers off Henzman. Henzman is not impressive at all

Evan White homers off Henzman. Henzman is not impressive at all

 

I reckon there are plenty of scouts at that game. Wonder if the Sox are considering White at all.

Sporting News has us going with Beck in their latest mock: http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-d...ih1u4kb1f9gz0yt

"Does he have like a Cameron Maybin middle, ending up as a good fielder with huge Ks, but still a serviceable player?"

 

 

Again, guys like that are "a dime, a dozen". Why waste a number 11 pick, on that?

I hate to break it to you, but if you projected only the "middles" of every guy that is available in the draft, you'd have about 15-20 guys that may become serviceable players, with maybe 3? or tops 5? becoming all-star caliber players.

 

It really wouldn't be too exciting

Guys that make the majors and become serviceable players are not a dime a dozen.

 

"A dime, a dozen" is just a figure of speech, of course. What I was attempting to say is that it doesn't require a lot of talent, or money, to acquire them. If you need a serviceable player, he is usually available. It's the big run producers that demand significant talent, in return, if a team attempts to trade for them, or acquire them through free agency.

 

"A dime, a dozen" is just a figure of speech, of course. What I was attempting to say is that it doesn't require a lot of talent, or money, to acquire them. If you need a serviceable player, he is usually available. It's the big run producers that demand significant talent, in return, if a team attempts to trade for them, or acquire them through free agency.

 

A guy like Kendall is one of a few that has the potential to be a big time run producer. That is why people are interested in him, despite the hole in his swing.

There are currently only 13 1b in the league with an OPS over .800. Only 11 last year at the end of the season. I think many on this board are too worried about position value over getting the best bat available.

 

It's not that -- it's how rarely college 1b prospects actually work out. The vast majority of big league first baseman were drafted at other positions and just grew out of them.

"A dime, a dozen" is just a figure of speech, of course. What I was attempting to say is that it doesn't require a lot of talent, or money, to acquire them. If you need a serviceable player, he is usually available. It's the big run producers that demand significant talent, in return, if a team attempts to trade for them, or acquire them through free agency.

 

The point though is that they have a chance to be something much better than their mean projection.

 

Anyone whose MEAN projection is "big league run producer" is going to go #1 overall.

It's not that -- it's how rarely college 1b prospects actually work out. The vast majority of big league first baseman were drafted at other positions and just grew out of them.

Because if you already are playing 1b in college, you likely already don't have the type of tools to be a star in the MLB.

Because if you already are playing 1b in college, you likely already don't have the type of tools to be a star in the MLB.

 

Right. You have to feel like the bat is REALLY special to believe it's going to work. Not just "well this is the best bat that happens to be on the board as of today."

From Keith Law's latest chat:

I think a good better best situation is Jackie Bradley Jr., Austin Jackson, Mike Cameron

Given how open the Sox were about valuing college production and (seemingly) higher floor players in last years draft, it seems so strange to me that they could be going back to to the well for another high-risk/toolsy player like Kendall.

Getting the feeling that Kendall isn't who they want. Another article today talking about valuing contact hitters

It's not that -- it's how rarely college 1b prospects actually work out. The vast majority of big league first baseman were drafted at other positions and just grew out of them.

When the best college 1st baseman drafted in the 1st round in the past 15 years is Eric Hosmer, that should speak volumes.

It's not that -- it's how rarely college 1b prospects actually work out. The vast majority of big league first baseman were drafted at other positions and just grew out of them.

 

I'm honestly not about to do all of the research to prove my point, but I feel like your point is a lot more true for RH hitters than LH. If you're LH and have a certain body type 9/10 you're going to play 1B in college, just the way it is.

 

Personally, I don't want to take a risk on a guy who clearly doesn't have as good of a hit tool because of what position they play when we have an organization devoid of capable MLB quality hitters. Clearly I'm in the vast minority on this and that's fine. Trust me, I see the other side of wanting to take the higher ceiling player at a premium position, its not exactly rocket science that they are harder to find and in higher demand. But I personally would rather take the surer thing at 11 in what I feel is a weak top of the draft class and gamble in rounds 2-6.

 

 

 

Getting the feeling that Kendall isn't who they want. Another article today talking about valuing contact hitters

Hah, sounds like a smokescreen

I'm honestly not about to do all of the research to prove my point, but I feel like your point is a lot more true for RH hitters than LH. If you're LH and have a certain body type 9/10 you're going to play 1B in college, just the way it is.

 

Personally, I don't want to take a risk on a guy who clearly doesn't have as good of a hit tool because of what position they play when we have an organization devoid of capable MLB quality hitters. Clearly I'm in the vast minority on this and that's fine. Trust me, I see the other side of wanting to take the higher ceiling player at a premium position, its not exactly rocket science that they are harder to find and in higher demand. But I personally would rather take the surer thing at 11 in what I feel is a weak top of the draft class and gamble in rounds 2-6.

Wouldn't this result in a lot of LH 1b's available after round 1 though?

When the best college 1st baseman drafted in the 1st round in the past 15 years is Eric Hosmer, that should speak volumes.

 

Wasn't Hosmer out of high school?

Wasn't Hosmer out of high school?

He was. I just went went through the last 15 drafts and the *only* college 1B (taken in rd1) I can find that's had any type of career is CJ Cron. Nick Swisher was apparently drafted as a 1B but he obviously ended up playing some OF in the majors.

 

edit - Correction. I somehow skipped over the 2008 draft. Smoak, Alonso, and Ike Davis are all college 1B's taken in rd1. But all 3 have had fairly uninspiring careers to this point, and it's taken 9 years for Smoak or Alonso to finally look like productive players.

Edited June 9, 20178 yr by maxjusttyped

Wouldn't this result in a lot of LH 1b's available after round 1 though?

 

Well do you feel like this is a normal draft class in terms of top 11 talent? Because I sure don't. Like I said, going 1B may be the safe easy way out, but it's a lot better than striking out on another toolsy player with a questionable hit tool. I don't feel like we can afford another 1st round miss. Let's just all cross our fingers and hope Haseley falls and we can all be happy. Hopefully we can agree on that.

I have a feeling Evan White is our guy.