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2017 MLB DRAFT


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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 04:29 PM)
I'm honestly not about to do all of the research to prove my point, but I feel like your point is a lot more true for RH hitters than LH. If you're LH and have a certain body type 9/10 you're going to play 1B in college, just the way it is.

 

Personally, I don't want to take a risk on a guy who clearly doesn't have as good of a hit tool because of what position they play when we have an organization devoid of capable MLB quality hitters. Clearly I'm in the vast minority on this and that's fine. Trust me, I see the other side of wanting to take the higher ceiling player at a premium position, its not exactly rocket science that they are harder to find and in higher demand. But I personally would rather take the surer thing at 11 in what I feel is a weak top of the draft class and gamble in rounds 2-6.

I'm 100% with you. I want to see Getz and the development folks prove they can develop a prospect with serious swing and miss issues before I spend a 1st round pick on such a player. If possible, go with a higher floor player on an underslot deal at 11 and then gamble later in the draft.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 06:52 PM)
I have a feeling Evan White is our guy.

 

Have to be honest, a bats right fields left 1B prospect without significant power seems a little strange. Does he become a corner OF?

Edited by NCsoxfan
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 09:38 PM)
Because if you already are playing 1b in college, you likely already don't have the type of tools to be a star in the MLB.

Not many Will Clark's or Frank Thomas's out there. Far and few in between.

Edited by MnSoxFan
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Start with Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. The 21-year-old is ranked at No. 6 in MLB.com's Draft rankings because of his potential as a five-tool player. He stands out for his 70-grade speed and his defensive abilities in terms of range and arm power. However, Kendall has struck out 71 times in 287 plate appearances for a 25.5 percent rate that would likely be exacerbated in the pro ranks. His other numbers are solid (.312/.379/.569, 15 homers, 19 steals), but his struggles to make contact could be enough to keep out of the top 10.

 

University of North Carolina right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, MLB.com's No. 7 Draft prospect, might also be trending down after a June 2 outing against Davidson. The right-hander gave up six earned runs on six hits and four walks in just 3 2/3 innings during an 8-4 loss in a NCAA tournament regional. Bukauskas was once thought to be a good bet to go in the top 10, but a pick in the teens might be more likely.

 

College left-hander Seth Romero is also dropping down Draft boards, but more for off-the-field reasons than anything based strictly on performance. Romero was was given a 60 grade for both his fastball and slider by MLB Pipeline, while his changeup graded out as an above-average 55. Combine those with the fact that he throws from the left side, and Romero could have been a high pick Monday. However, he was suspended from the University of Houston earlier this spring for violating drug-related team rules and then dismissed in May after reportedly getting in a fight with a teammate. Some organization will take a chance on Romero's ability, but teams with high picks will shy away from investing in a player with such makeup issues.

 

As for signability worries, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo notes in his latest Pipeline Inbox that Texas high-school right-hander Shane Baz might be tough to talk out of his commitment to TCU. The 17-year-old comes in at No. 12 in MLB Pipeline's rankings, thanks to his plus fastball, cutter and slider, and that talent level should equate to a high pick. But if teams picking high in the first round feel solidly that he'll head to college, Baz could tumble.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-201...486/t-185364810

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QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 04:57 PM)
He was. I just went went through the last 15 drafts and the *only* college 1B (taken in rd1) I can find that's had any type of career is CJ Cron. Nick Swisher was apparently drafted as a 1B but he obviously ended up playing some OF in the majors.

 

edit - Correction. I somehow skipped over the 2008 draft. Smoak, Alonso, and Ike Davis are all college 1B's taken in rd1. But all 3 have had fairly uninspiring careers to this point, and it's taken 9 years for Smoak or Alonso to finally look like productive players.

It's kind of crazy, the last 3 college 1B drafted in the 1st round who did not predominately play the OF in the majors to put up 8+ career bWAR are Carlos Pena, Todd Helton, Frank Thomas and Mo Vaughn (Frank & Mo were in the same draft). To be fair there have only been 27 players drafted as 1B in the first round since 1989 and that's including predominate OF like Nick Swisher and Lance Berkman and a lefty reliever in Sean Doolittle.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 04:22 PM)
Start with Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. The 21-year-old is ranked at No. 6 in MLB.com's Draft rankings because of his potential as a five-tool player. He stands out for his 70-grade speed and his defensive abilities in terms of range and arm power. However, Kendall has struck out 71 times in 287 plate appearances for a 25.5 percent rate that would likely be exacerbated in the pro ranks. His other numbers are solid (.312/.379/.569, 15 homers, 19 steals), but his struggles to make contact could be enough to keep out of the top 10.

 

University of North Carolina right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, MLB.com's No. 7 Draft prospect, might also be trending down after a June 2 outing against Davidson. The right-hander gave up six earned runs on six hits and four walks in just 3 2/3 innings during an 8-4 loss in a NCAA tournament regional. Bukauskas was once thought to be a good bet to go in the top 10, but a pick in the teens might be more likely.

 

College left-hander Seth Romero is also dropping down Draft boards, but more for off-the-field reasons than anything based strictly on performance. Romero was was given a 60 grade for both his fastball and slider by MLB Pipeline, while his changeup graded out as an above-average 55. Combine those with the fact that he throws from the left side, and Romero could have been a high pick Monday. However, he was suspended from the University of Houston earlier this spring for violating drug-related team rules and then dismissed in May after reportedly getting in a fight with a teammate. Some organization will take a chance on Romero's ability, but teams with high picks will shy away from investing in a player with such makeup issues.

 

As for signability worries, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo notes in his latest Pipeline Inbox that Texas high-school right-hander Shane Baz might be tough to talk out of his commitment to TCU. The 17-year-old comes in at No. 12 in MLB Pipeline's rankings, thanks to his plus fastball, cutter and slider, and that talent level should equate to a high pick. But if teams picking high in the first round feel solidly that he'll head to college, Baz could tumble.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-201...486/t-185364810

Probably helps to show the title to the section you quoted:

Who slides?

 

There can be a multitude of reasons why players fall in the Draft. It could be signability with players having a set bonus they're looking for and clubs being unwilling to match it. It could be poor performance down the stretch. It could be, like the case of Delvin Perez in 2016, breaking news about the player. (Perez was reported to have failed a drug test and dropped to the Cardinals at No. 23.)

 

There are a few candidates this year who could be waiting a little longer to hear their name on Draft day than they might otherwise, given their skills.

 

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I have all the Vandy and Virginia games recording just in case the Sox take Kendall or Haseley.

 

Watched Kendall's ABs tonight. 1st AB was not recorded because the previous game ran long.

 

2nd AB he scorched a line drive to LF that nearly hit the wall. I honestly thought it was a line drive in the gap, but it took off and the LF last second snagged it high.

 

3rd AB he got really jammed and chopped it to 1st.

 

4th AB he struck out. Swung over an inside slider for strike 1, lined a similar spotted slider foul for strike 2, swung over a slow slider for strike 3. 3 straight sliders inside.

 

5th AB with the game on the line....never happened. Kendall would have been the tying run in the 9th, but the game ended with him on deck.

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jun 9, 2017 -> 05:58 PM)
Have to be honest, a bats right fields left 1B prospect without significant power seems a little strange. Does he become a corner OF?

Why does the "bats right fields left" matter unless you don't like right-handed hitters in general? He's considered elite defensively at 1B and power is the only big caveat to his game. I'm much more willing to gamble on his power coming with physical maturation & coaching, rather than our ability to develop a guy with big swing & miss issues. Having said that, White becoming an OF is what makes him attractive to me. If there's any chance he can stick in CF, he quickly becomes one of the top positional prospects in the entire draft. Even as a corner OF he would still make a ton of sense because he could be plus out there due to his athleticism.

 

Hostetler has made it very clear that he doesn't like guys with serious swing & miss issues. To me, Kendall is a smoke-screen and they're likely targeting a higher floor bat at #11. White gives me a bit of a Zach Collins vibe in that teams valued him very differently based on whether they thought he could stick at catcher or not. The Sox were confident he could and would have apparently drafted him at #1 overall. At least nine teams disagreed with that assumption and decided to pass. White's ability to play CF/OF is a similar question at this time, but if you believe he can stick there he immediately becomes a huge steal at #11.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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Frankie Piliere mentioning Kendall with the Mets and the floor being the Dodgers. Like I said, just seems the Sox interest in Kendall is overstated due to Law's report they met. My prediction is the top 3 on their realistic board is Haseley/Bukauskas/Beck.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 10, 2017 -> 08:17 AM)
Frankie Piliere mentioning Kendall with the Mets and the floor being the Dodgers. Like I said, just seems the Sox interest in Kendall is overstated due to Law's report they met. My prediction is the top 3 on their realistic board is Haseley/Bukauskas/Beck.

 

I'm sure Callis and Baseball America have done plenty of their own reporting.

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Btw there are some who think that mcKay is overraten due to the two way thing. He probably would be a top10 guy either way but maybe not more if he did only one thing. Statistically he is very good but at the plate he is a 1b and his stats were great but not really better than some other 1b guys (smith, rooker) and on the mound he is very polished but his stuff is not off the charts great.

 

And if you don't think he can pitch and hit in the majors why give him a bonus for that and not treat him like either a top10 hitter or pitcher?

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Nice article by ESPN on best players from each draft slot since it started in 1965. They based everything on WAR.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1955342...every-spot-1-30

 

McCutcheon, Scherzer & G Springer best at #11.

 

Sale best ever at #13.

 

2nd best pick at #16 is....Brett Lawrie.

 

My thoughts are that you really need a top 3 pick to have a chance at a superstar and a top 15 pick to really even have a chance at anything more than a crapshoot.

Edited by rowand's rowdies
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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jun 10, 2017 -> 01:17 PM)
Evan White a right handed version of Cody Bellinger? What does everyone think of that comp and the value at pick #11?

 

Bellinger has 60 to 65 grade or more power. White has not shown much power at all. I don't think it's a great comp because of that.

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