Ken Rosenthal: Trade Deadline Will be Insane

[steveno89]

How to Talk Baseball in 2017:

1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards

2) Regurgitate

 

Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise.

 

Robertson is a solid, mid range closer or could be a very good setup man

 

He's only 32 years old and likely has a few more productive seasons left in the tank

 

Clearly he was a victim of our awful pitch framing in 2016 as his walk rate increased to nearly 5.0 BB/9

 

He's struck out 10.9 batters per 9 ip, which is really good

 

To say Robertson sucks is flat out wrong, if he controls giving out free passes better in 2017 he should bounce back

[steveno89]

How to Talk Baseball in 2017:

1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards

2) Regurgitate

 

Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise.

 

From August 12th onward Roberston only gave up 2 earned runs in roughly 16 innings pitched with much better peripheral stats

 

I really think Navarro's awful framing shares a significant amount of blame

[witesoxfan]

He caves under pressure and doesn't have the right makeup to be a closer. When he unravels he completely unravels and now that he's going to walk everyone in sight that means more innings will start off poorly for him which will lead to him becoming unglued more often. When he's on he's on, but the problem with those guys is consistency. Once his confidence in his stuff is even questioned he goes completely in the tank and he hasn't been elite in 5 years so its not like he's going to get it back.

 

What he did in Kansas City was the last nail in the coffin last season. I've honestly never seen anything like it and it soured me on him permanently.

 

That is logical, using one performance to permanently cast judgment on a player.

[Con te Giolito]

Looking at the game log from last season, he had 4 games where he gave up more than one run. I see command trend to. Before the first game, he hadn't pitched in 5 days. The second time, a week. The third time, 12 days.

 

The fourth and final bad game came after he had pitched the day before though so that's an outlier I suppose.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...p&year=2016

 

Edit: if he doesn't pitch that one game against KC when it was a blowout, who knows what happens. Also, 16 of his 24 earned runs on the season came in 4 those outings.

If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible!

 

Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[Bob Sacamano]

If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible!

 

Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense.

 

 

Having 12 appearances out of 62 for the season where you give up runs is pretty good I would say.

 

I don't understand what you expect to get for him now instead of waiting considering "how bad he is" (your words).

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Bob Sacamano]

At what point do we just start ignoring everything this guy says?

[Con te Giolito]

Having 12 appearances out of 62 for the season where you give up runs is pretty good I would say.

I dont how it stacks up against other guys but my gut tells me its bad for a closer to give up runs in 20% of their appearances. That's 1 in 5 times he's out there struggling.

[Con te Giolito]

At what point do we just start ignoring everything this guy says?

Feel free at any time.

[Chicago White Sox]

If you only look at the AB's where Jose Abreu got a hit he bat a perfect .1000 on the year! Incredible!

 

Robertson is a case where I am 100% comfortable waiting until June to say I told you so. I hope to god its on a different team, even if they want to compete in 2017 (stupid, but whatever) they are better off shipping him out so hopefully that's what happens. I wonder what Rizzo would've added to the Eaton deal if the Sox would've included Robertson and not stuck to the silly "only sell one a piece at a time" mentality that really doesn't make too much sense.

Dude, you are straight-up embarrassing yourself by making these "want to compete in 2017" comments. Every important move they have made this offseason has been opposite of trying to compete next year.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[Baron]

Oh I see this thread has been poisoned

[OmarComing25]

How to Talk Baseball in 2017:

1) Pull up Fangraphs leaderboards

2) Regurgitate

 

Allen definitely isn't an elite closer, but he's also definitely better than Robertson and no WAR figure calibrated to evaluate starting pitchers will convince me otherwise.

Robertson had 4 games in 2016 where he gave up more than 1 run, Allen had 3, including his own KC-esque meltdown against our very own White Sox in August.

 

Robertson allowed a .247 wOBA in high-leverage situations (30 IP) and a .277 wOBA with runners on base. Allen allowed a .306 wOBA (23 IP) in high leverage situations and a .283 wOBA with runners on base.

 

I think Allen is better too, but those numbers don't support your theory that Robertson doesn't have the makeup to be a closer or tends to unravel when he gets into tight situations.

[Chicago White Sox]

I dont how it stacks up against other guys but my gut tells me its bad for a closer to give up runs in 20% of their appearances. That's 1 in 5 times he's out there struggling.

If a closer gave up a run every five 1 inning appearances, his ERA would be 1.8. Would you consider that stuffling? I think your gut is very wrong here.

[Bob Sacamano]

Robertson had 4 games in 2016 where he gave up more than 1 run, Allen had 3, including his own KC-esque meltdown against our very own White Sox in August.

 

Robertson allowed a .247 wOBA in high-leverage situations (30 IP) and a .277 wOBA with runners on base. Allen allowed a .306 wOBA (23 IP) in high leverage situations and a .283 wOBA with runners on base.

 

I think Allen is better too, but those numbers don't support your theory that Robertson doesn't have the makeup to be a closer or tends to unravel when he gets into tight situations.

 

 

If a closer gave up a run every five 1 inning appearances, his ERA would be 1.8. Would you consider that stuffling? I think your gut is very wrong here.

 

There's just no point anymore. Better to let him keep complaining and rambling about s*** that isn't true.

[Con te Giolito]

Dude, you are straight-up embarrassing yourself by making these "want to compete in 2017" comments. Every important move they have made this offseason has been opposite of trying to compete next year.

Every single time I try and explain why I think a player, other than established villains like Avisail Garcia, is bad everyone rushes over to call me STUPID for it. If this team is supposed to be so noncompetitive next year then how come all the players are supposed to be so good? You guys watch baseball (I assume) so you know how huge an impact a good closer can have on a team's record. If Robertson really does regain his form, as so many have predicted, the Sox will be winning a lot of one-run games which combined with a couple others things (like huge years from Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu and Brett Lawrie plus the emergence of Rodon as an elite starter...all things predicted by people calling me stupid in THIS THREAD) could make them a competitive team. Hell if all those things happen and they stay mostly healthy they will be a good team.

[OmarComing25]

I dont how it stacks up against other guys but my gut tells me its bad for a closer to give up runs in 20% of their appearances. That's 1 in 5 times he's out there struggling.

Since we've been doing the Allen-Robertson comparison Allen gave up runs in 14 out of his 67 appearances, which is... 21%.

[Bob Sacamano]

Every single time I try and explain why I think a player, other than established villains like Avisail Garcia, is bad everyone rushes over to call me STUPID for it. If this team is supposed to be so noncompetitive next year then how come all the players are supposed to be so good? You guys watch baseball (I assume) so you know how huge an impact a good closer can have on a team's record. If Robertson really does regain his form, as so many have predicted, the Sox will be winning a lot of one-run games which combined with a couple others things (like huge years from Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu and Brett Lawrie plus the emergence of Rodon as an elite starter...all things predicted by people calling me stupid in THIS THREAD) could make them a competitive team. Hell if all those things happen and they stay mostly healthy they will be a good team.

 

Not necessarily. Even on a bad team, a closer is likely guaranteed 35+ saves about if he closes the whole season injury-free.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Bob Sacamano]

Let's stick to the topic instead of going at individual posters guys. I think there's a good debate here.

 

There's credence to the idea that idea that Robertson could never be the same pitcher that got him the contract he has with the Sox and there's even more credence that he rebounds. He didn't lose his velocity last year. He had some outings where everything went wrong. He had some stretches where he didn't have his fastball command in any way. That's the nature of the spontaneous task of relief pitching. When you lack the movement desired on your fastball and you can't locate it you're going to get hit it a bit and have some outings that really mess up your numbers.

 

One thing is clear to me - he is at the lowest value point of his career right now. If his value is even positive (given contract), he's not going to get the White Sox a return of anything to get excited about. Hold this guy. The teams that are looking at their bullpen and listing seven guys and saying "We're set" are going to have a couple injuries. Every team is at basically full strength right now. If Robertson starts his season like he did 2015 he's going to be a commodity in July. He won't be a rental, he'll be ~25% cheaper than he is now and he would have a track record that could give opposing executives a bit more confidence. If you keep and he sucks, you lose a C type prospect. If you hold him and he bounces back, you could pick up a piece or two that could really benefit the organization for years to come. There's no more obvious hold on the team than Robertson.

 

Amen.

[Con te Giolito]

Not necessarily. Even on a bad team, a closer is likely guaranteed 35+ saves about if he closes the whole season injury-free.

But he's basically the same as Cody Allen! I mean Cody Allen helped the Indians to a division title and AL pennant if the Sox have that kind of guy closing games for them that's probably going to help them win some games, right?

[Con te Giolito]

Let's stick to the topic instead of going at individual posters guys. I think there's a good debate here.

 

There's credence to the idea that idea that Robertson could never be the same pitcher that got him the contract he has with the Sox and there's even more credence that he rebounds. He didn't lose his velocity last year. He had some outings where everything went wrong. He had some stretches where he didn't have his fastball command in any way. That's the nature of the spontaneous task of relief pitching. When you lack the movement desired on your fastball and you can't locate it you're going to get hit it a bit and have some outings that really mess up your numbers.

 

One thing is clear to me - he is at the lowest value point of his career right now. If his value is even positive (given contract), he's not going to get the White Sox a return of anything to get excited about. Hold this guy. The teams that are looking at their bullpen and listing seven guys and saying "We're set" are going to have a couple injuries. Every team is at basically full strength right now. If Robertson starts his season like he did 2015 he's going to be a commodity in July. He won't be a rental, he'll be ~25% cheaper than he is now and he would have a track record that could give opposing executives a bit more confidence. If you keep and he sucks, you lose a C type prospect. If you hold him and he bounces back, you could pick up a piece or two that could really benefit the organization for years to come. There's no more obvious hold on the team than Robertson.

But Robertson's stuff has never really been about velocity, its all about his bite and movement and let's face it his stuff did not have the same bite and movement on it that it did the year before and he's definitely not locating it as well (Dioner Navarro doesn't quadruple someone's walk rate). Just watching him his stuff isn't as good as it once was.

 

[bmags]

Robertson is honestly one of the more interesting players we have.

 

My gut feel would be to say that Robertson fatigues easily, when you watch him start off dominantly in April then wear down.

 

But Dick Allen posted that his worst games were all on 3-4 days rest.

 

[Con te Giolito]

Robertson is honestly one of the more interesting players we have.

 

My gut feel would be to say that Robertson fatigues easily, when you watch him start off dominantly in April then wear down.

 

But Dick Allen posted that his worst games were all on 3-4 days rest.

He also improved dramatically in September.

 

EDIT- in 8 IP so who knows that's not much of a sample.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[Bob Sacamano]

But he's basically the same as Cody Allen! I mean Cody Allen helped the Indians to a division title and AL pennant if the Sox have that kind of guy closing games for them that's probably going to help them win some games, right?

 

He helps them win some games, but the offense and starting rotation being worse will be reasons why he won't pitch ahead often and get saves. Comparing a 2016 Indians to a 2017 White Sox team is a joke.

Edited January 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[footlongcomiskeydog]

Let's stick to the topic instead of going at individual posters guys. I think there's a good debate here.

 

There's credence to the idea that idea that Robertson could never be the same pitcher that got him the contract he has with the Sox and there's even more credence that he rebounds. He didn't lose his velocity last year. He had some outings where everything went wrong. He had some stretches where he didn't have his fastball command in any way. That's the nature of the spontaneous task of relief pitching. When you lack the movement desired on your fastball and you can't locate it you're going to get hit it a bit and have some outings that really mess up your numbers.

 

One thing is clear to me - he is at the lowest value point of his career right now. If his value is even positive (given contract), he's not going to get the White Sox a return of anything to get excited about. Hold this guy. The teams that are looking at their bullpen and listing seven guys and saying "We're set" are going to have a couple injuries. Every team is at basically full strength right now. If Robertson starts his season like he did 2015 he's going to be a commodity in July. He won't be a rental, he'll be ~25% cheaper than he is now and he would have a track record that could give opposing executives a bit more confidence. If you keep and he sucks, you lose a C type prospect. If you hold him and he bounces back, you could pick up a piece or two that could really benefit the organization for years to come. There's no more obvious hold on the team than Robertson.

 

 

This post sums up the Robertson situation very nicely. Value at an all time low right now so you hold and hope for a bounce-back first half.

 

I'm not sure why Jones hasn't been moved yet though. His value is most likely at its peak right now. With his injury history, a couple of trips to the DL in the first half and his value is totally tanked. Also, there will be a lot more reliever supply available at the trade deadline. He serves no purpose on a truly rebuilding team.

[fathom]

Robertson got simply destroyed on his fastball last year. Rather he use his curve a lot more often

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I agree with raBBit. I'd much rather trade Jones for a haul now and let Robertson rebuild his value than the other way around.