3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The answer here should be obvious as well.

Can't really assume a guy is going to sign an extension just because we trade for him. He only has 2 years of control.

I would also prefer to find someone who isn't a black hole against lefties.

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by soxfan2014

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Can't really assume a guy is going to sign an extension just because we trade for him. He only has 2 years of control.

I would also prefer to find someone who isn't black hole against lefties.

Nope.

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Nope.

Lol please don't tell me the reason is Manny Machado...

Dude has friends (Valencia) and former teammates (Jones) all over baseball including in free agency we could sign for nothing.

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by soxfan2014

The only FA whose market has apparently evaporated that maybe you take a shot at for a 2 year deal at this price is marwin and...it would be really nice if he played CF.

9 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Question wasn't for me, but I'll answer my own opinion.

Contending for a WS -- as early as 2022, but realistically 2023 - 2024.

 

First of all, competing for a division is the same as competing for the World Series, if you get to the dance you can win the thing. This isn't the NBA.

Second, if, your not competing for a championship until the guy you traded a Hall of Fame pitcher for is in his walk year, Rick Hahn should be fired yesterday. 

Trade rumors are so much more fun than free agent rumors.

I have a feeling like this trade is all but done, contingent on the Sox signing Machado. Context clues and vague comments from people with org contacts lead me to believe that. If the Dodgers really are waiting for this trade before they can officially sign Pollack, we might have a trouble here. If Machado doesn't sign anytime soon, the Dodgers are going to get antsy and look for another trade partner.

2 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I have a feeling like this trade is all but done, contingent on the Sox signing Machado. Context clues and vague comments from people with org contacts lead me to believe that. If the Dodgers really are waiting for this trade before they can officially sign Pollack, we might have a trouble here. If Machado doesn't sign anytime soon, the Dodgers are going to get antsy and look for another trade partner.

If the price isn't that high, I think the Sox would take Joc regardless of Machado situation.  

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

His career numbers continue to be a poor reflection of what he did the last 2 years. 2014-2016 I will totally agree, he was a solid OF. The last 2 years, his numbers have been generally weak no matter which position you put him in. He's good enough at routine plays but he's got no shot at anything that isn't hit close to where he's playing - Out of like 20 balls that were 50/50 balls for normal outfielders the past 2 seasons he got to something like 1 or 2. You're quoting Edgar Martinez's career numbers to me as an argument that he should be our DH in 2019 as he's a hall of fame caliber player - ignoring the minor fact that he isn't the same player he was during the 1990s.

Is this based on you watching him regularly? Because if it is, I could buy it. But there are some sample issues with that argument if you’re just going off the numbers.  

His CF numbers have been much worse the past two seasons as you say, but 2017 was a partial season for him, and he only actually played 187 innings in CF last year. His numbers in LF over that same span are actually quite good. In 2018, his sample in LF is about four times larger. 

It sounds like you’re looking at the Inside Edge stuff for part of this. Those 50/50 plays you referred to — he only had six total chances at them last year, and only one of those came in CF.  Not good that he didn’t make many of those plays, but clearly non-conclusive if you’re trying to predict future performance  

I don’t think there’s enough data to suggest a precipitous decline in his ability to play the OF. I think that the closest answer to the truth is probably in the Dodgers usage of him, which is increasingly as a corner guy.

It really seems like he is a guy who is probably an above average corner outfielder and a below average, but acceptable center fielder. 

2 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I have a feeling like this trade is all but done, contingent on the Sox signing Machado. Context clues and vague comments from people with org contacts lead me to believe that. If the Dodgers really are waiting for this trade before they can officially sign Pollack, we might have a trouble here. If Machado doesn't sign anytime soon, the Dodgers are going to get antsy and look for another trade partner.

Zero indication that Machado or Harper will sign anytime soon, so this all may take some time to play out. 

19 minutes ago, mqr said:

First of all, competing for a division is the same as competing for the World Series, if you get to the dance you can win the thing. This isn't the NBA.

 

We'll never find common ground on this, which is fine. My stance continues to be 9 of 10 times this isn't true. The Braves, Rockies, and Brewers had a very SLIM shot this year of winning it all. I understand this isn't the NBA, but even the perfect year for the Brewers... and let's say for fun they beat the Dodgers... they were not getting through the Red Sox gauntlet. That team was TIRED. Offense was fine.. the pitching was taxed.

 

Odds entering playoffs in 2018 in Vegas pretty much mirror my thoughts.

• Los Angeles Dodgers: 9/2
• Cleveland Indians: 8/1
• Houston Astros: 7/2
• New York Yankees: 7/1
• Boston Red Sox: 3/1
• Milwaukee Brewers: 7/1
• Colorado Rockies: 10/1
• Atlanta Braves: 12/1

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by BrianAnderson

2 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Is this based on you watching him regularly? Because if it is, I could buy it. But there are some sample issues with that argument if you’re just going off the numbers.  

His CF numbers have been much worse the past two seasons as you say, but 2017 was a partial season for him, and he only actually played 187 innings in CF last year. His numbers in LF over that same span are actually quite good. In 2018, his sample in LF is about four times larger. 

It sounds like you’re looking at the Inside Edge stuff for part of this. Those 50/50 plays you referred to — he only had six total chances at them last year, and only one of those came in CF.  Not good that he didn’t make many of those plays, but clearly non-conclusive if you’re trying to predict future performance  

I don’t think there’s enough data to suggest a precipitous decline in his ability to play the OF. I think that the closest answer to the truth is probably in the Dodgers usage of him, which is increasingly as a corner guy.

It really seems like he is a guy who is probably an above average corner outfielder and a below average, but acceptable center fielder. 

Pederson's bat is so much better than Engel's, you could deal with mediocre CF defense. At some point this team needs to transition to trying to win games, and getting a black hole like Engel out of the lineup is essential. 

5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Is this based on you watching him regularly? Because if it is, I could buy it. But there are some sample issues with that argument if you’re just going off the numbers.  

His CF numbers have been much worse the past two seasons as you say, but 2017 was a partial season for him, and he only actually played 187 innings in CF last year. His numbers in LF over that same span are actually quite good. In 2018, his sample in LF is about four times larger. 

It sounds like you’re looking at the Inside Edge stuff for part of this. Those 50/50 plays you referred to — he only had six total chances at them last year, and only one of those came in CF.  Not good that he didn’t make many of those plays, but clearly non-conclusive if you’re trying to predict future performance  

I don’t think there’s enough data to suggest a precipitous decline in his ability to play the OF. I think that the closest answer to the truth is probably in the Dodgers usage of him, which is increasingly as a corner guy.

It really seems like he is a guy who is probably an above average corner outfielder and a below average, but acceptable center fielder. 

This seems like the most sensible take on his D I’ve seen yet.   Thank you for posting. 

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If the price isn't that high, I think the Sox would take Joc regardless of Machado situation.  

Just spitballing but couldn't it have Harper ramifications?  

If the Sox miss out on Machado I would think that could increase their interest in Harper (assuming he is still available).  

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by GREEDY

3 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Just spitballing but couldn't it have Harper ramifications?  

If the Sox miss out on Machado I would think that could increase their interest in Harper (assuming he is still available).  

The implications would be that you wouldn't have to play Jon Jay very much and could launch engel into the sun, which in my opinion, is not a negative.

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by mqr

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If the price isn't that high, I think the Sox would take Joc regardless of Machado situation.  

I disagree. As of this second, the Sox are in no position to move anybody who might have a future impact, whether it's Fulmer or Bush. There's just no reason to. Get rid of Delmonico, no problem. But no reason to move players who could improve, let alone someone like Bush who is a high ceiling prospect, to help a team that won 62 games last year. 2019 is going to be a bad year with or without Pederson. Now, sign Machado? Then you can also pick up a starter, get Joc and try to compete for a WC spot this year if everything goes right. But as of now, I would be pissed if the Sox get Pederson to patrol CF on a team without Machado or Harper. Might as well hold on to any prospect and hope they improve.

2 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Just spitballing but couldn't it have Harper ramifications?  

If the Sox miss out on Machado I would think that could increase their interest in Harper (assuming he is still available).  

I personally just don't think Harper was ever a realistic option for the Sox.  I am sure the Sox would have interest if MM goes elsewhere, but I doubt they're paying him what would be required to actually get him to sign here ($360M+).  I don't think Bryce is at all interested in playing for the Sox.  Just my opinion.  

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

You literally told me that I couldn't look at the fact that Joc's defensive numbers over the past 4 years have pointed straight down and said that only the average counts, and now you're telling him "It just doesn't tell the complete story about the players". Well fine, tell the complete story of the players, because you're deliberately leaving a lot out. Joc Pederson's offense wiped out his weak defense last year, but he failed to do so in 2017, that year he hit .212 with a .738 OPS and was bad enough that he was comparable to Engel overall. That's part of the story of this player too. Tell his story - he's no longer fine in CF, he's trended downwards substantially since 2016 but you say that you can only draw a flat line across that and care about the average, which blocks out part of the story. If he hits like he did in 2018 that's good enough to overcome it, but if he hits like he did in 2017 it does not, and if you put him out there against too many LHP then his overall offense is going to look really bad, so you better be ok with paying the price in trade for a guy who needs a platoon partner.

Your blunt statement "there's literally no arguing on that point" is true, as long as you "don't tell the complete story about the players".

By virtually any measure, the COMPLETE story of the players is Adam Engel is horrible and Joc Pederson is not. It's just a statistical fact that can't be disputed. Again, this is overall performance, not just offense or defense. Which has been my argument the entire time.

Let's tell the complete story. Joc Pederson's offense was NOT wiped out by his weak defense. If that were the case, he wouldn't have been a 2.7 fWAR player in 2018. In fact, if what you said was true, he likely would have ended up a 0.2 fWAR player in 2018 like Engel was or even a -0.8 fWAR player like Engel was in 2017. Instead, he has been 3.1, 3.6, 0.6, and 2.7 fWAR player over the last 4 seasons, with projections for 2019 in the 2.5 - 3.5 range. That's Joc's complete story. Engel will likely never even sniff 1.0 fWAR, even with his great defense. Which means he has to be horrid offensively. Which we all can agree he is. 

You asked me to tell the complete story, yet point out Joc's worst season in 4 years to make your point. A season, by the way, which was more productive than Adam Engel's season last year. A season which also included two DL stints. One for a groin strain where he missed 10 games. Another where he missed 18 games due to a concussion after an OF collision with Puig.

Last, we all agree that Joc has trended downward defensively. The argument has never been that Joc is Mike Trout in CF or even Adam Engel in CF. Hell, I'd prefer Joc in a corner OF position. That said, the argument has always been that Joc is a better overall player than Engel, even in CF. I am not worried about having to platoon Joc against LHP. I am 100% fine with that. The reality is, Engel needs a complete offensive platoon against both RHP and LHP because he sucks against both that badly. 

At the end of the day, I stand by what I said where Joc and Engel are concerned. There is no arguing who is the better overall player. Even in CF. 

 

3 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Just spitballing but couldn't it have Harper ramifications?  

If the Sox miss out on Machado I would think that could increase their interest in Harper (assuming he is still available).  

Definitely.

3 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Just spitballing but couldn't it have Harper ramifications?  

If the Sox miss out on Machado I would think that could increase their interest in Harper (assuming he is still available).  

I don’t think so. Unpopular opinion, but Pederson+Harper > Palka/Engel/Delmonico/etc.

1 minute ago, mqr said:

The implications would be that you wouldn't have to play Jon Jay very much and could launch engel into the sun, which in my opinion, is not a negative.

What if you are opening the door for the Dodgers to bid against you?  

4 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I disagree. As of this second, the Sox are in no position to move anybody who might have a future impact, whether it's Fulmer or Bush. There's just no reason to. Get rid of Delmonico, no problem. But no reason to move players who could improve, let alone someone like Bush who is a high ceiling prospect, to help a team that won 62 games last year. 2019 is going to be a bad year with or without Pederson. Now, sign Machado? Then you can also pick up a starter, get Joc and try to compete for a WC spot this year if everything goes right. But as of now, I would be pissed if the Sox get Pederson to patrol CF on a team without Machado or Harper. Might as well hold on to any prospect and hope they improve.

I think that's a fair take.  I see it both ways.  To be fair, I said if the price isn't that high.  If the Sox are acquiring Joc without MM, I think the value I'd be willing to give up would be slightly less. In any event, I don't think anyone is giving up much of anything for Joc with the FA market still flush with options.

Edited January 23, 20197 yr by ChiSox59

If it takes this rebuild until 2023 - 2024 to produce a contender, then I would have to agree that it has failed. Our best young core is arguably Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Anderson, Collins and whomever they select with the #3 pick, in this year's Draft. It is too early to assume anything, but it is being projected that they will take Andrew Vaughn. Here are the ages, for those players, in 2023:

Moncada  28

Jimenez  27

Robert.  26

Madrigal. 26

Kopech  27

Lopez. 29

Cease   28

Dunning  29

Anderson  30

Collins  28

Vaughn. 25

Those guys should have established what kind of players they are going to be, earlier than those ages. There are very few outstanding prospects, in the organization, who are younger than these players, so it is likely that the rebuild will depend heavily on this core. The other names, such as Burdi, Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo and Hansen are all in this same age group. Again, if they haven't figured it out until they are that old, then at least this phase of the rebuild will have indeed failed. We would be looking at guys approaching arbitration and would have to depend upon a whole new crop of prospects, or be prepared to spend some big money. 

3 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

Let's tell the complete story. Joc Pederson's offense was NOT wiped out by his weak defense. If that were the case, he wouldn't have been a 2.7 fWAR player in 2018. In fact, if what you said was true, he likely would have ended up a 0.2 fWAR player in 2018 like Engel was or even a -0.8 fWAR player like Engel was in 2017. Instead, he has been 3.1, 3.6, 0.6, and 2.7 fWAR player over the last 4 seasons, with projections for 2019 in the 2.5 - 3.5 range. That's Joc's complete story. Engel will likely never even sniff 1.0 fWAR, even with his great defense. Which means he has to be horrid offensively. Which we all can agree he is. 

Just to stress, I did not say that in 2018 his offense was wiped out by his defense, I said the exact opposite - that in 2018 his weak defense was wiped out by his decent offense, which is true but which I guess the words did not come across here.

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think that's a fair take.  I see it both ways.  To be fair, I said if the price isn't that high.  If the Sox are acquiring Joc without MM, I think the value I'd be willing to give up would be slightly less. In any event, I don't think anyone is giving up much of anything for Joc with the FA market still flush with options.

I don't think the theoretical price of Fulmer and Bush is that high on its own. But to me, it still doesn't make sense for the Sox sans Machado. If Joc were a free agent? Sign him ASAP, that's cool. But I don't even want to give up a lottery ticket to maybe improve by 5 wins for a team that won't break the 80 win mark.