Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Why?

High as opposed to what they would have got for him at any other point in his career. Now he's got MLB AB's and crushed RHP which is much better for teams than a RHH who crushes LHP.

You could make an argument that they would be selling low but that's only if you think he'll have the opportunity to get even better with the Sox which is unpredictable.

What I would really like to find out is how teams are viewing Vaughn vs Sheets. Vaughn's age and pedigree have a lot to do with his value but Sheets being LH and hitting the amount of HR's he did in limited PA's are strong points in his favor. Vaughn in 5 AB's and Sheets in 12 AB's both had a nice post season. Vaughn with a double and Sheets with a double and a HR.

Edited November 12, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

Looking at Conforto's Fielding Bible page - he's inconsistent from one year to the next, scoring somewhat above to somewhat below league averages until 2021 in which his numbers were well below RF standards. His overall performance at the plate improved over the course of the 2021 season and supposing that those improvements were due to injury recovery and would likely reflect in his field play as well - but I haven't found a list of splits on his defense work. 

This was my hunch as well, that because it was a hamstring it may have made his 2021 RF numbers worse. But in general, I'm not really big on the stringer data relied on for DRS, and jonathan judge did an article showing FRAA to be the best outfield defensive metric, and that had him as basically neutral and historically positive in RF. I think at this age, neutral matches the eye test. 

I don't think he's great, but considering the ease of our corner situation, I think it's likely he'll be positive for us or at least neutral.

[poppysox]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

High as opposed to what they would have got for him at any other point in his career. Now he's got MLB AB's and crushed RHP which is much better for teams than a RHH who crushes LHP.

You could make an argument that they would be selling low but that's only if you think he'll have the opportunity to get even better with the Sox which is unpredictable.

What I would really like to find out is how teams are viewing Vaughn vs Sheets. Vaughn's age and pedigree have a lot to do with his value but Sheets being LH and hitting the amount of HR's he did in limited PA's are strong points in his favor. Vaughn in 5 AB's and Sheets in 12 AB's both had a nice post season. Vaughn with a double and Sheets with a double and a HR.

The best is ahead for Sheets IMO.  We have a huge need for a lefty power bat.  We need him more than I perceive his trade value to be.

[FoxForce2]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

This was my hunch as well, that because it was a hamstring it may have made his 2021 RF numbers worse. But in general, I'm not really big on the stringer data relied on for DRS, and jonathan judge did an article showing FRAA to be the best outfield defensive metric, and that had him as basically neutral and historically positive in RF. I think at this age, neutral matches the eye test. 

I don't think he's great, but considering the ease of our corner situation, I think it's likely he'll be positive for us or at least neutral.

Barring injury (or lack of recovery therein), Conforto would likely be a head above anyone the Sox played in RF in 2021. I like me some Vaughn, but he's got a chance at becoming competent in LF  - not RF. To rely on him on that side is unfair to everyone, esp. him.   

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, FoxForce2 said:

Barring injury (or lack of recovery therein), Conforto would likely be a head above anyone the Sox played in RF in 2021. I like me some Vaughn, but he's got a chance at becoming competent in LF  - not RF. To rely on him on that side is unfair to everyone, esp. him.   

I mean he had other issues but Engel?

[FoxForce2]

49 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean he had other issues but Engel?

I missed him. Has Engel proven that he's going to be an everyday or even frequent player? There is a very real chance that Hahn is going to run a RF by committee next year and might even be thinking of Cespedes coming in after the AS break for some yo-yoing. I'd prefer something more stable at the position (with Engel spelling at all three OF spots) , but the $$$ are likely going elsewhere. Considering the budget, the Sox FO is thinking we can afford either the pricey RF or the 2b (in addition to addressing other needs), - not both. Of course there could be the option to compromise with a Cesar type and Avi. But then we have the LF/1B/DH knot again.
The upshot being that having quality but somewhat one or two-dimensional players like Vaughn, Sheets and even Eloy might not be such a good problem to have after all.
p.s. Reading Hendricks' comments about team improvement, he made a point of mentioning defense upgrades. These pitchers need to have confidence in the play behind them. Otherwise all this can affect pitch selection and a given thrower's entire approach to the game.   

Edited November 13, 2021 by FoxForce2

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, FoxForce2 said:

I missed him. Has Engel proven that he's going to be an everyday or even frequent player? There is a very real chance that Hahn is going to run a RF by committee next year and might even be thinking of Cespedes coming in after the AS break for some yo-yoing. I'd prefer something more stable at the position (with Engel spelling at all three OF spots) , but the $$$ are likely going elsewhere. Considering the budget, the Sox FO is thinking we can afford either the pricey RF or the 2b (in addition to addressing other needs), - not both. Of course there could be the option to compromise with a Cesar type and Avi. But then we have the LF/1B/DH knot again.
The upshot being that having quality but somewhat one or two-dimensional players like Vaughn, Sheets and even Eloy might not be such a good problem to have after all.
p.s. Reading Hendricks' comments about team improvement, he made a point of mentioning defense upgrades. These pitchers need to have confidence in the play behind them. Otherwise all this can affect pitch selection and a given thrower's entire approach to the game.   

I’d say that this year Engel proved The opposite, that it is dangerous to count on him as a frequent player without an alternate option. If the injuries don’t recur then yes he performed well enough to be a frequent player, but that was a lot of injury problems.

[ron883]

6 hours ago, poppysox said:

The best is ahead for Sheets IMO.  We have a huge need for a lefty power bat.  We need him more than I perceive his trade value to be.

What role do you use him in? Everyday starter? Platoon?

[Chick Mercedes]

On 11/9/2021 at 5:52 AM, bmags said:

And also my fav thing about conforto...we still have Vaughn and Sheets!

Sheets should just be a DH, Vaughn rotate into DH vs lefties and spell LF/RF, and in the offseason he can continue to work on 3b. 

Agreed. But eh, rather spend the money elsewhere than Conforto, given Vaughn and Sheets.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Chick Mercedes

[poppysox]

7 hours ago, ron883 said:

What role do you use him in? Everyday starter? Platoon?

Platoon in RF and DH when possible.  Occasional 1st base is also a possibility along with PH situations.  As we learned last year...opportunities seem to present themselves.

[black jack]

21 hours ago, ron883 said:

Yes

100 million dollars better? 

[Chicago White Sox]

Sheets put up a -2 OAA in 82 innings in RF and Vaughn put up a -2 OAA in 118 RF innings.  I can’t stress enough how bad these guys were out there.  Using them as a RF platoon is not setting this roster up for success as too much of their offensive value will be negated by shitty defense.  And you can’t look at this stuff in a vacuum as context matters.  We already have a bad defensive LF in Eloy.  With a halfway decent RF, you can have Robert cheat a bit to the left and limit the amount of space Eloy needs to cover.  With one of two slow footed RFs, we are literally fucked.

[poppysox]

51 minutes ago, black jack said:

100 million dollars better? 

This is the unspoken truth.  We all want a defensive GG-type player with a great bat at every position.  Neither the WS nor any other team can afford that.  Now we need to field a team with FA and trade pieces attempting to fix RF, 2nd base, backup catcher, starting rotation, and RP.  Utilizing some players we already have is necessary if we are to afford the pieces for which there are no internal solutions.  I would prefer to see Vaughn/Sheets in my everyday lineup rather than Leury types.

[ron883]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

Platoon in RF and DH when possible.  Occasional 1st base is also a possibility along with PH situations.  As we learned last year...opportunities seem to present themselves.

You think the OF defense will be good enough with Eloy in LF and Gavin in RF?

[ron883]

1 hour ago, black jack said:

100 million dollars better? 

Yes

[ron883]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sheets put up a -2 OAA in 82 innings in RF and Vaughn put up a -2 OAA in 118 RF innings.  I can’t stress enough how bad these guys were out there.  Using them as a RF platoon is not setting this roster up for success as too much of their offensive value will be negated by shitty defense.  And you can’t look at this stuff in a vacuum as context matters.  We already have a bad defensive LF in Eloy.  With a halfway decent RF, you can have Robert cheat a bit to the left and limit the amount of space Eloy needs to cover.  With one of two slow footed RFs, we are literally fucked.

This. The Sox can't roll out Vaughn/Sheets in RF with Eloy in LF if they are serious about contending. Why do people all of the sudden not care about outfield defense? 

[Balta1701]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sheets put up a -2 OAA in 82 innings in RF and Vaughn put up a -2 OAA in 118 RF innings.  I can’t stress enough how bad these guys were out there.  Using them as a RF platoon is not setting this roster up for success as too much of their offensive value will be negated by shitty defense.  And you can’t look at this stuff in a vacuum as context matters.  We already have a bad defensive LF in Eloy.  With a halfway decent RF, you can have Robert cheat a bit to the left and limit the amount of space Eloy needs to cover.  With one of two slow footed RFs, we are literally fucked.

While I agree in part, didn’t you point out correctly yesterday that defensive metrics over that short of a timespan aren’t likely to be predictive of future performance?

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, ron883 said:

You think the OF defense will be good enough with Eloy in LF and Gavin in RF?

No...it won't be as good as I would like.  However, I don't want a Hayward situation either.  As I have stated elsewhere...we only have so many dollars to spend and I would prefer to spend in those areas of need at 2nd base, backup catcher, and in the pitching staff.  We have two very good young guys in Vaugh and Sheets that I want to utilize until the 1st base/DH situation allows that we use them in their best positions.  I believe RH said as much in his recent remarks.

[ron883]

9 minutes ago, poppysox said:

No...it won't be as good as I would like.  However, I don't want a Hayward situation either.  As I have stated elsewhere...we only have so many dollars to spend and I would prefer to spend in those areas of need at 2nd base, backup catcher, and in the pitching staff.  We have two very good young guys in Vaugh and Sheets that I want to utilize until the 1st base/DH situation allows that we use them in their best positions.  I believe RH said as much in his recent remarks.

That OF defense would be the worst in the entire league. You can't roll that out if you are seriously contending. Defense matters. 

[ron883]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I agree in part, didn’t you point out correctly yesterday that defensive metrics over that short of a timespan aren’t likely to be predictive of future performance?

You don't need a large sample size to see that Sheets/Vaughn are horrible in RF. The eye test is enough. 

[poppysox]

10 minutes ago, ron883 said:

That OF defense would be the worst in the entire league. You can't roll that out if you are seriously contending. Defense matters. 

You might be right but the offense will help you overlook the occasional fielding blunder.  Since you value defense above all else perhaps you should set your sights a little higher than Conforto.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, ron883 said:

You don't need a large sample size to see that Sheets/Vaughn are horrible in RF. The eye test is enough. 

I don’t know, despite their below average speed and below average athleticism we may be missing something here

[Two-Gun Pete]

23 minutes ago, ron883 said:

You don't need a large sample size to see that Sheets/Vaughn are horrible in RF. The eye test is enough. 

And this is with the SOX playing Jimenez, Sheets, and Vaughn extremely deep, to try to hide their deficiencies. The eye test has been deceptive to some with respect to these three.

I think its possible to hide ONE shitty defender in the OF, provided that he hits. But having 3 shitty defenders is/was a bad and dumb idea; it was ONE reason why I didn't rate the 2021 team's chances all that highly.

 

All this said, Conforto isn't likely to be signed here, IMO. We're all right to WANT him to be signed here, but it doesn't seem to fit this FO's M.O. 

[ron883]

16 minutes ago, poppysox said:

You might be right but the offense will help you overlook the occasional fielding blunder.  Since you value defense above all else perhaps you should set your sights a little higher than Conforto.

I don't think the pitching staff would appreciate having that outfield behind them. I don't care how good the offense is - giving up extra outs is never a good idea.

[kleedawg]

59 minutes ago, ron883 said:

This. The Sox can't roll out Vaughn/Sheets in RF with Eloy in LF if they are serious about contending. Why do people all of the sudden not care about outfield defense? 

The braves can't seriously think of contending with Soler and Rosario in the of, oh wait

The Astros can't seriously think of contending with Alvarez and Brantley in the corners...oh wait

The red sox can't seriously think of contending with terrible team defense ...oh wait

I can go on here. No one is great defensively at every position, you have to make trade offs.

 

How many games did sheets/vaughn/jimenez cost us last year defensively in the o (I can't think of 1)? How many did they win with their bats? 

Engel (and however else we get as a 5th of) will be out there in the late innings replacing the trio.

Also, Sheets?vaughn have yet to have an off season/spring training where they have played of. They can get better with work if they set their minds to it. Harold Baines was not a good fielder when drafted, but then Jimmy piersall worked with him. He was then a very good rfuntil knee injuries made him a DH.

If our of defense becomes an albatross around our necks, I'm sure we can trade for 1 at the deadline for a better fit then Conforto and sheets/vaughn trade values will likely be higher.