So . . . . is the window still open?

[vilehoopster]

(Sorry this is in bold. I didn't mean to do that or do it for emphasis. I was a couple paragraphs in when I got called to help with Christmas dinner and so saved it to google docs. When I pasted it in and continued typing, I could not get rid of the bold.)

I put my vote with yes.  I still think there is a real chance for this Sox team to win a World Series. 

First, I never saw the "window" as a guarantee that the Sox would be so powerful that they would be in a couple World Series, no doubt. I saw the idea of a window as something where the Sox would be a strong team, make the playoffs every year for five or so years and if things came together, they could win the World Series.

Well, in my definition of "the window", it's still very much open, and I think the Sox, if things go right, can absolutely make the Series and win it. Were the Phillies one of the best teams in the NL this year? I would say no. Was Washington, the year they won it all, a top-eight team in baseball that year? No, both teams made the playoffs and just got hot at the right time, and I think this Sox team is very capable of that. 

The main reason for my optimism is one simple thing that everyone seems to have forgotten. For all the complaining about needing this or that move in the off-season, everyone seems to have forgotten one HUGE area where the Sox will be much improved: La Russa is gone. 

I absolutely believe 100% that La Russa being gone will make the Sox, at least, ten games better, at least. 

The depth of Jerry's mistake in hiring La Russa cannot be understated, how it wasted two years of Sox talent.

 

I don't think you can overestimate the drag mentally and emotionally having La Russa as a manager must have been on this team. The players are professionals and were able to deal with poor leadership (I'm being nice here) for a while; I'd say well into the first year. But the mental and emotional anchor of every day going out and playing for a manager who was completely unaware and a total goofus has to have taken it toll to the point where it affected the mental approach of the players, and baseball, as much as any sport, is hugely mental. 

I think this mental anchor showed itself in lingering injuries (why rehab hard or hurry back from injury for an insano manager with his not knowing the rules, stupid/ clueless lineups and in-games moves, and obsession with playing a total non-offensive threat every chance he got), and players not being mentally into games, either offensively with horrible at-bats and lunkhead base running and terrible defensive plays. 

Posters on this board keep talking about how it is unrealistic to think that so many players who underachieved last year can bounce back with good years this year. Well, to that, yes and no. Of course not all of them will have good years this year, and some injuries will happen. But I am stating that I believe many, a large percentage, of the players (everyday and pitchers) will show clear improvement over last year. And  I think a large part of that will be because La Russa is gone. Like I said before; this emotional and mental anchor is taken away.

Again, I think the window, with its chance to get back to the Series and win it is still open. I think the talent is there to get back in the playoffs, and from then, anything can happen, again, think of the Senators. 

Also, I think it's hard to overestimate what a stupid move it was for Jerry to hire La Russa and completely waste two years of talent. I think this year (I hope) will make that very evident. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by vilehoopster

[SonofaRoache]

What window? 

[T R U]

This team as currently constructed are not World Series threats. 
 

They have enough to win the Central though. 

[vilehoopster]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

This team as currently constructed are not World Series threats. 
 

They have enough to win the Central though. 

Yes and no. Sort of my point. They are not the Astro or the Dodgers. But I think, with the improvement as I stated I expect to happen, I think they are the Phillies. 

[CentralChamps21]

8 minutes ago, T R U said:

This team as currently constructed are not World Series threats. 
 

They have enough to win the Central though. 

Cease-Kopech-Lynn-Giolito/Clevinger is strong rotation and can win you playoff series if they're all on at the same time.

[Texsox]

Absolutely I believe they are WS contenders. 

Oops, wrong holiday, I thought it was April Fool's Day. 

Currently they could win as many as 85 games. They might even win the division. Then they get swept away like old beer cups. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

23 minutes ago, T R U said:

This team as currently constructed are not World Series threats. 
 

They have enough to win the Central though. 

If the White Sox are AL Central contenders, they’re also World Series contenders. It’s the nature of the sport. Win the division, get into the tournament and see what happens. 

[Jack Parkman]

No. I think they could win the ALC but nothing beyond that. Their ceiling is getting curbstomped in the ALDS. 

[Tnetennba]

The window closed the moment JR decided to drag his bestie off the barstool, slap a uniform on his reanimated corpse, and force a woefully incapable washed up hack on this team.  Can they surprise and make a World Series run?  Sure.  Improbable isn’t impossible, but I’m not holding my breath. 

[MackowiakYakYak]

13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No. I think they could win the ALC but nothing beyond that. Their ceiling is getting curbstomped in the ALDS. 

The question is what would be the win conditions for the current construction of the Sox to beat team X in the playoffs and how realistic is it for that condition to happen.

The Sox currently have the possibility of elite pitching, but how likely is it for at least 3 starters to be healthy and firing on all cylinders? We don’t have a very healthy staff and there’s a good deal of inconsistency with some of the starters.

As far bats and fielding, we don’t really have game changing bats and a good fielding series would be one where they don’t give the other team extra runs. We can’t expect better than average outcomes from our fielders. 

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

If the White Sox are AL Central contenders, they’re also World Series contenders. It’s the nature of the sport. Win the division, get into the tournament and see what happens. 

Lol, just stop. 

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

If the White Sox are AL Central contenders, they’re also World Series contenders. It’s the nature of the sport. Win the division, get into the tournament and see what happens. 

Obviously correct!!!

[TheFutureIsNear]

If Moncada bounces back to at least a .270/.350/.420 hitter

If Giolito can bounce back to 180+ innings if sub 4 ERA pitcher

 If TA, Robert, and Eloy can all play at least 135+ games

If Vaughn and Kopech take the next development step forward

If Grandal can catch 85+ games and be a useful hitter

 

IF those things happen…sure we are a World Series contender

 

*(Didn’t mention the uncertainties of Lynn, Clevinger and whoever our 2B is)

 

[pcq]

1 hour ago, vilehoopster said:

Yes and no. Sort of my point. They are not the Astro or the Dodgers. But I think, with the improvement as I stated I expect to happen, I think they are the Phillies. 

ie Sox could be best of the worst. 

[Texsox]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

If the White Sox are AL Central contenders, they’re also World Series contenders. It’s the nature of the sport. Win the division, get into the tournament and see what happens. 

I'll have some of that Christmas cheer you're drinking. On the surface I agree with you. But deep down we both know that isn't true. So I checked the definition of contender. You are exactly right. According to the denotation of contender then yes, the Sox are contenders. But so too are literally every team in baseball. 

The connotation of the word contender removes the weak contenders and the highly unlikely contenders, leaving the strong contenders. Currently that just isn't this team. But there are still a few months until opening day. 

 

[Sambuca]

Kind of.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

Lol, just stop. 

Stop what? That’s exactly the nature of the MLB playoffs. 

[MEANS]

Yes I would say the “Window” is still open, but if they don’t make the playoffs this year…

[Johno]

No, just way too many ifs.   There are at least 5 to 6 teams in the AL that are better.   We had a chance to get better and ownership decided not to seize the opportunity.   It’s too bad!!

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Stop what? That’s exactly the nature of the MLB playoffs. 

I’d actually like to know which team is this example of a team that is built to maybe win 89 games, sneaks into the playoffs, and then wins a title. The most recent example I have might be the 03 Marlins? 
04 - Boston. Was a wild card team, improbable ALCS, but was also a perennial playoff team and will show up again soon.

05 - might be the team on here with the least sustained success. Might be the most out of nowhere title in 20 years.

06 - Cardinals - everyone makes a big deal of them winning 82 games, but the same team won 100 games the year before and was in the 04 World Series. That’s a sustained period of excellence.

07 - hey Boston again, maybe they weren’t a fluke.

08 - Phillies - was a surprise at the time but they made the playoffs 5 straight years.

09 - Yankees. Most recent example I have of a team getting a title in FA.

10. 12. 14. Giants. There were a couple wild card appearances in there but that’s seriously sustained success.

11 - Cardinals again. 

13 - Red Sox again.

15 - Royals - complete rebuild, “best system in baseball history”, two straight World Series appearances.

16 - Cubs - made NLCS the year before, 5 straight playoff appearances.

17 - Astros. Bit of help from a trash can, but have made the playoffs every year since.

18 - Red Sox again.

19 - Nationals - was a wild card team, but had 5 playoff appearances and 4 division titles since 2012, never finished worse than second.

20 - Dodgers. Definition of sustained success.

21 - Braves - have now won the NL East 5 straight years.

22 - Astros again.

This seems very non random to me. There are zero examples of the Rockies or Marlins or Diamondbacks or Pirates sneaking in with an 88 win season and winding up with a title. Teams like that have made the World Series a couple times but I don’t see a win. Every one of them is a multi-year contender who wins their division repeatedly, the shortest stint other than the 05 White Sox is probably the Royals who couldn’t afford to keep a team that made two straight World Series appearances together.

Titles are going to franchises that are excellent for years.

[Balta1701]

If your window is open, you should probably close it. That cold front was serious it got all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. I’ve seen 4 people in this neighborhood here in Texas with busted pipes from freezing.

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d actually like to know which team is this example of a team that is built to maybe win 89 games, sneaks into the playoffs, and then wins a title. The most recent example I have might be the 03 Marlins? 
04 - Boston. Was a wild card team, improbable ALCS, but was also a perennial playoff team and will show up again soon.

05 - might be the team on here with the least sustained success. Might be the most out of nowhere title in 20 years.

06 - Cardinals - everyone makes a big deal of them winning 82 games, but the same team won 100 games the year before and was in the 04 World Series. That’s a sustained period of excellence.

07 - hey Boston again, maybe they weren’t a fluke.

08 - Phillies - was a surprise at the time but they made the playoffs 5 straight years.

09 - Yankees. Most recent example I have of a team getting a title in FA.

10. 12. 14. Giants. There were a couple wild card appearances in there but that’s seriously sustained success.

11 - Cardinals again. 

13 - Red Sox again.

15 - Royals - complete rebuild, “best system in baseball history”, two straight World Series appearances.

16 - Cubs - made NLCS the year before, 5 straight playoff appearances.

17 - Astros. Bit of help from a trash can, but have made the playoffs every year since.

18 - Red Sox again.

19 - Nationals - was a wild card team, but had 5 playoff appearances and 4 division titles since 2012, never finished worse than second.

20 - Dodgers. Definition of sustained success.

21 - Braves - have now won the NL East 5 straight years.

22 - Astros again.

This seems very non random to me. There are zero examples of the Rockies or Marlins or Diamondbacks or Pirates sneaking in with an 88 win season and winding up with a title. Teams like that have made the World Series a couple times but I don’t see a win. Every one of them is a multi-year contender who wins their division repeatedly, the shortest stint other than the 05 White Sox is probably the Royals who couldn’t afford to keep a team that made two straight World Series appearances together.

Titles are going to franchises that are excellent for years.

And the Sox from 00-08 finished worse than 2nd twice( once in a season they won 90 games btw) and won 3 division titles in that span. 

Also from 1990-2008 the Sox had the 5th highest winning percentage in baseball, despite only winning 4 divisions and one title. 

So was it really a fluke, or for one year did all of the right buttons get pushed? 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Texsox]

Damn good post @Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

If Moncada bounces back to at least a .270/.350/.420 hitter

If Giolito can bounce back to 180+ innings if sub 4 ERA pitcher

 If TA, Robert, and Eloy can all play at least 135+ games

If Vaughn and Kopech take the next development step forward

If Grandal can catch 85+ games and be a useful hitter

 

IF those things happen…sure we are a World Series contender

 

*(Didn’t mention the uncertainties of Lynn, Clevinger and whoever our 2B is)

 

Agreed!  Our odds look very good.  I particularly am excited about Pedro and staff...huge upgrade.

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d actually like to know which team is this example of a team that is built to maybe win 89 games, sneaks into the playoffs, and then wins a title. The most recent example I have might be the 03 Marlins? 
04 - Boston. Was a wild card team, improbable ALCS, but was also a perennial playoff team and will show up again soon.

05 - might be the team on here with the least sustained success. Might be the most out of nowhere title in 20 years.

06 - Cardinals - everyone makes a big deal of them winning 82 games, but the same team won 100 games the year before and was in the 04 World Series. That’s a sustained period of excellence.

07 - hey Boston again, maybe they weren’t a fluke.

08 - Phillies - was a surprise at the time but they made the playoffs 5 straight years.

09 - Yankees. Most recent example I have of a team getting a title in FA.

10. 12. 14. Giants. There were a couple wild card appearances in there but that’s seriously sustained success.

11 - Cardinals again. 

13 - Red Sox again.

15 - Royals - complete rebuild, “best system in baseball history”, two straight World Series appearances.

16 - Cubs - made NLCS the year before, 5 straight playoff appearances.

17 - Astros. Bit of help from a trash can, but have made the playoffs every year since.

18 - Red Sox again.

19 - Nationals - was a wild card team, but had 5 playoff appearances and 4 division titles since 2012, never finished worse than second.

20 - Dodgers. Definition of sustained success.

21 - Braves - have now won the NL East 5 straight years.

22 - Astros again.

This seems very non random to me. There are zero examples of the Rockies or Marlins or Diamondbacks or Pirates sneaking in with an 88 win season and winding up with a title. Teams like that have made the World Series a couple times but I don’t see a win. Every one of them is a multi-year contender who wins their division repeatedly, the shortest stint other than the 05 White Sox is probably the Royals who couldn’t afford to keep a team that made two straight World Series appearances together.

Titles are going to franchises that are excellent for years.

This entire post is predicated on the fact that the Sox are NOT a perennial division winner during this stretch. I believe they are, and 2021 is the outlier. If the Sox win a World Series within the next few years, they will fit right in with several other teams on your list: “won the division every year from 2020 through 2024 (with one exception)”