Cease To Padres per Passan

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Thanks for the insight. I am not in on Ortiz period. He's like Arroyo from the Reds with a lower ceiling. Good glove, maybe 50 hit, 45 power. A guy like that doesn't have to miss his projection by much to be a utility guy. And he's not young.  Obviously, the O's aren't giving up Holliday, but if the headliner is Ortiz, the Sox will have a bunch of better options. Hell, Atlanta's rumored package is way better than that and the two teams have made a couple of deals already.  I predict the O's will prospect-hug and go dumpster diving to add to the rotation. I feel like if a deal was going to happen between these two teams, it would have happened already.

Ortiz has some of the best EV numbers in the minors. I would be just as happy to have him as our starting second baseman long term as i would Westburg. In fact, I would much rather trade Westburg (compared to one of the OFers) for that reason.

Ortiz may be able to win a GG at three If positions. He is a 720-770 type bat imo. You get that combined with his defense and he is a 3.5-5 WAR type guy. I mean, the Os got 3.3 fWaR out of Jorge Mateo in 2022 because of his defense and his offense isn’t close to Ortiz.

But again, I get it. I get why you wouldn’t want him as the top guy in the package, especially because of his age. All I’m saying is that the level he is generally rated at is about the area I see the Sox getting their headliner from.

Maybe some have him as a top 50 guy and maybe some top 80..the reality is that there is very little difference there and Ortiz is far more likely to be a ML contributor than most prospects ahead of him because of the defense he can provide.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[SoCalChiSox]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz has some of the best EV numbers in the minors. I would be just as happy to have him as our starting second baseman long term as i would Westburg. In fact, I would much rather trade Westburg (compared to one of the OFers) for that reason.

Ortiz may be able to win a GG at three If positions. He is a 720-770 type bat imo. You get that combined with his defense and he is a 3.5-5 WAR type guy. I mean, the Os got 3.3 fWaR out of Jorge Mateo in 2022 because of his defense and his offense isn’t close to Ortiz.

But again, I get it. I get why you wouldn’t want him as the top guy in the package, especially because of his age. All I’m saying is that the level he is generally rated at is about the area I see the Sox getting their headliner from.

Maybe some have him as a top 50 guy and maybe some top 80..the reality is that there is very little difference there and Ortiz is far more likely to be a ML contributor than most prospects ahead of him because of the defense he can provide.

We've been told our FO actually prefers Norby as the 2nd piece which is strange for an FO that goes out of its way to say it prioritizes defense and its doubly strange where our top overall prospect seems headed for 3B rather than SS. 

I would think we would prefer a GG level SS as insurance in case that happens and if it doesn't happen you have GG 2B, but evidently not. 

Maybe they think Ortiz bat doesn't play at all or they are scared about age....I dunno. But I have seen people say 50/50 which would be excellent for a double plus defensive SS/2B. That he is RHH sucks but the top overall piece is LHH so it's ok. Even at 50/45 it would be fine. 

What are your thoughts on Connor Norby?

Would he stick defensively at 2B and what is your opinion on his glove there?

From your observations do you agree with his 50 hit/55 power profile?

 

 

[Timmy U]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz has some of the best EV numbers in the minors. I would be just as happy to have him as our starting second baseman long term as i would Westburg. In fact, I would much rather trade Westburg (compared to one of the OFers) for that reason.

Ortiz may be able to win a GG at three If positions. He is a 720-770 type bat imo. You get that combined with his defense and he is a 3.5-5 WAR type guy. I mean, the Os got 3.3 fWaR out of Jorge Mateo in 2022 because of his defense and his offense isn’t close to Ortiz.

But again, I get it. I get why you wouldn’t want him as the top guy in the package, especially because of his age. All I’m saying is that the level he is generally rated at is about the area I see the Sox getting their headliner from.

Maybe some have him as a top 50 guy and maybe some top 80..the reality is that there is very little difference there and Ortiz is far more likely to be a ML contributor than most prospects ahead of him because of the defense he can provide.

Great. You guys should keep him then.

[Pale Sox]

“I’ve dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz’s defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes.”
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-watch-some-shortstop-prospects-play-defense/

the above is from this fangraphs article, which could give at least some pause on Ortiz’ defense. I’ve never seen him play, personally. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Pale Sox

[Rey21]

Kjerstad/Mayo+Ortiz/Westburg+any pitcher they don’t want is the least I’d accept from the O’s. If they or their forum don’t like it then trade him to someone else who gets desperate either now or at the deadline or hell hold onto him for 2 years. No reason to settle on Cease when we know he’s closer to the 2022 version than last year’s. Opening day game against the Astros is who Cease is during big time performances, that’s what teams are going to have to pay for, not some early 98 degree August game against the Royals when nobody wants to be there 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rey21

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

22 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

We've been told our FO actually prefers Norby as the 2nd piece which is strange for an FO that goes out of its way to say it prioritizes defense and its doubly strange where our top overall prospect seems headed for 3B rather than SS. 

I would think we would prefer a GG level SS as insurance in case that happens and if it doesn't happen you have GG 2B, but evidently not. 

Maybe they think Ortiz bat doesn't play at all or they are scared about age....I dunno. But I have seen people say 50/50 which would be excellent for a double plus defensive SS/2B. That he is RHH sucks but the top overall piece is LHH so it's ok. Even at 50/45 it would be fine. 

What are your thoughts on Connor Norby?

Would he stick defensively at 2B and what is your opinion on his glove there?

From your observations do you agree with his 50 hit/55 power profile?

 

 

Where have we been told they prefferred norby to ortiz?

[Nardiwashere]

After reading through the Orioles board a couple times in the last few weeks, I want him to get traded to another AL East team, win Cy Young, and have the Orioles miss the playoffs.  They probably wouldn't care so long as the Norfolk Tides dominate AAA. 

[Quin]

Just now, Nardiwashere said:

After reading through the Orioles board a couple times in the last few weeks, I want him to get traded to another AL East team, win Cy Young, and have the Orioles miss the playoffs.  They probably wouldn't care so long as the Norfolk Tides dominate AAA. 

I still want a trade with the Orioles, but I like this type of petty.

[SoCalChiSox]

9 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Where have we been told they prefferred norby to ortiz?

Macsandz said we asked for Cowser, Norby+something else as the third piece and BAL said no.

I remember asking him why Norby and he talked in some detail about what they liked about him. I dont remember word for word what he posted but I think he said something like they see him as an athletic 2B obviously with a very solid bat and i think they loved his character too. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[Rey21]

2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Macsandz said we asked for Cowser, Norby+something else as the third piece and BAL said no.

I remember asking him why Norby and he talked in some detail about what they liked about him. I dont remember word for word what he posted but I think he said something like they see him as an athletic 2B obviously with a very solid bat and i think they loved his character too. 

 

 

If BAL said “no” to this then move on, they aren’t serious about acquiring a front of the rotation arm. Their message boards are saying this type of deal could land a Logan Gilbert, they’re just as looney as we are. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rey21

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, Rey21 said:

If BAL said “no” to this then move on, they aren’t serious about acquiring a front of the rotation arm 

I mean this is not an unreasonable demand at all, I'm not sure it's time to move on, tho. I think Getz first needs to wait BAL out a little bit. 

Push comes to shove at the edge of spring training I think BAL will/should give in. We're not asking for their top 3 prospects so Elias can declare a "win" there and save face and  Norby has nowhere to play there and they still have Kjerstad plus several other OFers in the pipeline. If he thinks he can flip Santander or an existing OFer for quality cost controlled pitching he's gravely mistaken in this market. 

I would much rather wait Elias out as opposed to doing a deal with ATL for only pitching. 

 

[Pale Sox]

7 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Macsandz said we asked for Cowser, Norby+something else as the third piece and BAL said no.

I remember asking him why Norby and he talked in some detail about what they liked about him. I dont remember word for word what he posted but I think he said something like they see him as an athletic 2B obviously with a very solid bat and i think they loved his character too. 

 

 

Yeah I remember him mentioning they loved his makeup. 

[Rey21]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I mean this is not an unreasonable demand at all, I'm not sure it's time to move on, tho. I think Getz first needs to wait BAL out a little bit. 

Push comes to shove at the edge of spring training I think BAL will/should give in. We're not asking for their top 3 prospects so Elias can declare a "win" there and save face and  Norby has nowhere to play there and they still have Kjerstad plus several other OFers in the pipeline. If he thinks he can flip Santander or an existing OFer for quality cost controlled pitching he's gravely mistaken in this market. 

I would much rather wait Elias out as opposed to doing a deal with ATL for only pitching. 

 

Im fine with waiting it out 100% if it results in Mayo or Kjerstad as the headliner, just don’t see a reason for the Sox to settle for anything less than one of those two as the headliners. A trade for a top of the rotation arm for 2 fulls seasons is supposed to hurt, moving Cowser/Ortiz/Norby doesn’t hurt enough 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rey21

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

If BAL said “no” to this then move on, they aren’t serious about acquiring a front of the rotation arm. Their message boards are saying this type of deal could land a Logan Gilbert, they’re just as looney as we are. 

I truly think we're slightly looney because Hahn did land two heists with Quintana and Eaton, even if Eloy failed to reach his ceiling and ReyLo turned into a reliever.

When your barometer for Adam Eaton is two major league starters (including one All-Star) and a reliever and Quintana is a Cy Young runner up and a Silver Slugger, you're gonna want a good return for that Cy Young runner up.

[Nardiwashere]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

I truly think we're slightly looney because Hahn did land two heists with Quintana and Eaton, even if Eloy failed to reach his ceiling and ReyLo turned into a reliever.

When your barometer for Adam Eaton is two major league starters (including one All-Star) and a reliever and Quintana is a Cy Young runner up and a Silver Slugger, you're gonna want a good return for that Cy Young runner up.

The difference seems to be that Mike Rizzo and Theo Epstein had balls. 

[SoCalChiSox]

9 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Im fine with waiting it out 100% if it results in Mayo or Kjerstad as the headliner, just don’t see a reason for the Sox to settle for anything less than one of those two as the headliners. 

Mayo isn't happening and they seem to prefer Cowser over Hjerstad.

I'm assuming because Cowser has more above avg tools and I'm sure the contact, plate discipline, defense, athleticism, high OBP appeals more to Getz than pure power. He's seemingly willing to accept 55 or even 50 power as opposed to 60 power if he's getting all that other stuff. Getz may also be afraid Hjerstad ends up at 1B.

I'd be fine with either. If you can pry one of them plus Norby and Povich we are hitting three birds with  one stone.

If Bannister can't turn 2 of Povich, Nastrini, Eder, Bush into solid 3/4 starters to complement the ace in Schultz, then that's on him. He also has Thompson, Cannon, Mena etc waiting in the wings. 

They should be able to manufacture a couple decent starters from this bunch. We shouldn't have to sacrifice positional savages to get ready made studs when we have a pitching "guru".

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

We've been told our FO actually prefers Norby as the 2nd piece which is strange for an FO that goes out of its way to say it prioritizes defense and its doubly strange where our top overall prospect seems headed for 3B rather than SS. 

I would think we would prefer a GG level SS as insurance in case that happens and if it doesn't happen you have GG 2B, but evidently not. 

Maybe they think Ortiz bat doesn't play at all or they are scared about age....I dunno. But I have seen people say 50/50 which would be excellent for a double plus defensive SS/2B. That he is RHH sucks but the top overall piece is LHH so it's ok. Even at 50/45 it would be fine. 

What are your thoughts on Connor Norby?

Would he stick defensively at 2B and what is your opinion on his glove there?

From your observations do you agree with his 50 hit/55 power profile?

 

 

 Norby isn’t an IFer. He has a good bat but I think he’s an OFer/DH/spot start at second if needs be type guy.

Hes a good piece to acquire. Some have had him as a top 100 guy. 
 

He is younger than Ortiz but while everyone loves Norby’s bat, Ortiz has outhit him.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Pale Sox said:

“I’ve dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz’s defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes.”
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-watch-some-shortstop-prospects-play-defense/

the above is from this fangraphs article, which could give at least some pause on Ortiz’ defense. I’ve never seen him play, personally. 

We have talked about that. I think that article is largely bs. He’s a gifted fielder. It doesn’t give me any pause at all. If it weren’t for Gunnar and eventually Holliday, I would gladly hand him SS and like I said, I’ll take him at second and be very happy about it.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Chicago White Sox]

40 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Macsandz said we asked for Cowser, Norby+something else as the third piece and BAL said no.

I remember asking him why Norby and he talked in some detail about what they liked about him. I dont remember word for word what he posted but I think he said something like they see him as an athletic 2B obviously with a very solid bat and i think they loved his character too. 

 

 

I would say that anything Macsandz says should be taken with a massive grain of salt.  I can’t recall one single rumor he has gotten right but many he has gotten wrong.

[WhiteSox2023]

At what point is it just likely that Getz is asking interested teams for more than any of them are willing to give up and he needs to lower his ask?  Once Snell and Montgomery sign, and Cease still isn’t traded after that?

Edited December 27, 2023 by WhiteSox2023

[Sports Guy]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

At what point is it just likely that Getz is asking interested teams for more than any of them are willing to give up?  Once Snell and Montgomery sign, and Cease still isn’t traded after that?

I think that point is here now. The rumored Reds trade is a good example of that.

I actually think Cease can raise his value during the year. It’s less service time but if you can get him in June or July and he is pitching at a high level, he will fetch more than he can now imo.

But that’s a risk and on I am  not sure is worth taking.

Cease just isn’t fetching 3 prospects in the 35-75 range. It’s just not happening.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think that point is here now. The rumored Reds trade is a good example of that.

I actually think Cease can raise his value during the year. It’s less service time but if you can get him in June or July and he is pitching at a high level, he will fetch more than he can now imo.

But that’s a risk and on I am  not sure is worth taking.

Cease just isn’t fetching 3 prospects in the 35-75 range. It’s just not happening.

Yeah, I don’t think Getz can take that risk.  He likely has only two good trade chips in Cease and eventually Robert and he has to get some sort of return.  Hanging on to Cease and him getting injured would be devastating.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Yeah, I don’t think Getz can take that risk.  He likely has only two good trade chips in Cease and eventually Robert and he has to get some sort of return.  Hanging on to Cease and him getting injured would be devastating.

Definitely agree…but I think hanging onto him is the only we he has a chance at getting what it sounds like he is hoping for.

There was the report that Elias doesn’t want to trade Cowser.  Now, maybe he has no interest in doing that.

Its also possible he believes he doesn’t have to because the offers out there are underwhelming compared to expectations.

[Nardiwashere]

Its still December.  There has been barely any activity this offseason so far.  There's no rush.  

[Chicago White Sox]

FWIW, BA put a 70 grade on Ortiz’s fielding in their latest update vs. having him at a 60 grade previously.  While I’ll always be skeptical of someone making that type of defensive jump at his age, it’s really the bat that I’m concerned bout.  I’ve heard about these rumored elite EVs, but they conflict with every single scouting report I read on him.  And without access to Statcast type data at the minor league level, I highly question the validity of said statements.