Cease To Padres per Passan

[Nardiwashere]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

FTR, I do not think he should be the centerpiece for this deal because of his age.

My argument is more just about him as a player. He is an elite defensive guy with high end exit velo numbers that is putting up big stats in a pitchers park in AAA and he did the same thing in AA too.

He lost time because of the COVID year and he has a shoulder injury that took him about a year to overcome.

Since he got back from that, which is around June of 2022, he has lit it up with the bat and the glove.

We have guys over on OH that say if he is the second player in the deal, we are overpaying. I think that an absurd opinion. I don’t think you let Ortiz stop you from making a deal, especially with our high end talent in the IF but just because we have 2 guys that are MVP level talents at SS doesn’t diminish Ortiz’s value. 

 

Ok. That makes more sense.  

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I won’t be shocked but I doubt it happens because I question if Elias will move Cowser or Kjerstad for just 2 years of a player.

I don't understand this mentality.  There's like a million OFers in the farm and they are blocked at MLB level.  Is the plan to keep these guys in hopes that they can start in 2 years when they are 26 and 25 and there is room on the MLB roster? 

I'd think now is the time to trade guys like that. 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

At this point, I would be shocked if the Orioles land Cease.  Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox might be more realistic.

I think it’s possible, but it would almost have to come down to Bannister being a big fan D.L. Hall and the Orioles being willing to give him up.  I don’t think Getz comes out of a Cease trade without an immediate replacement.

[SoCalChiSox]

22 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

Ok. That makes more sense.  

I don't understand this mentality.  There's like a million OFers in the farm and they are blocked at MLB level.  Is the plan to keep these guys in hopes that they can start in 2 years when they are 26 and 25 and there is room on the MLB roster? 

I'd think now is the time to trade guys like that. 

I think they are gonna try first to move Santander, Hays for pitching so they can backfill the spots with the two left handed savages.

Once it becomes painfully apparent that no one is going to give up even semi-quality pitching for that, Elias will need to decide whether to actually sack up or just wait till the deadline and see where things stand. 

 

[T R U]

The Orioles are going to be stuck in the wasteland of trading their proven players who are getting expensive and expecting every single prospect they have to pan out.

To which they will eventually be back in the basement where they have spent the majority of the past 25 years.

[cuban_sammiches]

Is it possible we don't move Cease?

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, cuban_sammiches said:

Is it possible we don't move Cease?

Seems so

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, cuban_sammiches said:

Is it possible we don't move Cease?

Someone will pony up eventually IMO

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

It would honestly be kinda funny if they just kept him after 2,600+ posts in this thread and months and months of talking in circles about him.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

It would honestly be kinda funny if they just kept him after 2,600+ posts in this thread and months and months of talking in circles about him.

…coughs…

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

Ok. That makes more sense.  

I don't understand this mentality.  There's like a million OFers in the farm and they are blocked at MLB level.  Is the plan to keep these guys in hopes that they can start in 2 years when they are 26 and 25 and there is room on the MLB roster? 

I'd think now is the time to trade guys like that. 

I’m not saying I agree with the mentality but if you think Cowser is a 3.5+ WAR, AS level type guy who is going to make no money for the next 6-7 years, you can understand not trading that for a medium risk/high reward starter that only has 2 years left.

I think if the Os could do a quantity type deal..like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers and a lottery ticket type guy, that the Os would be all over it.

Im just not convinced they will deal a guy in their top 5.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No one is actually suggesting he is the centerpiece amongst Sox fans.  I have gotten in a lot of debates over at Orioles Hangout because some of their fans (not the majority though) feel he could be the centerpiece.  Personally, I think Orioles fans greatly overrate Ortiz’s value while many Sox fans undervalue it.  I personally view Ortiz as a low-end top 100 type prospect who I think has a shot of being a steady 2.0 to 2.5 win player with a league average bat but who could also not hit enough where you’re almost immediately looking for an upgrade. I also worry about his age and that goes into my discounted value for him.

Volpe was just worth 2.1 fWAR with no bat and a glove not as good as Ortiz. I think you are undervaluing just how much WAR a great glove can bring you plus Ortiz should hit at a league average or better rate for a MIer.

[Rey21]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not saying I agree with the mentality but if you think Cowser is a 3.5+ WAR, AS level type guy who is going to make no money for the next 6-7 years, you can understand not trading that for a medium risk/high reward starter that only has 2 years left.

I think if the Os could do a quantity type deal..like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers and a lottery ticket type guy, that the Os would be all over it.

Im just not convinced they will deal a guy in their top 5.

I just don’t see the Sox taking this deal, they value Cease much higher, rightfully so. If Mayo/Kjerstad aren’t the headliner then there’s really no reason to budge from the Sox side 

[Rey21]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Volpe was just worth 2.1 fWAR with no bat and a glove not as good as Ortiz. I think you are undervaluing just how much WAR a great glove can bring you plus Ortiz should hit at a league average or better rate for a MIer.

Ortiz doesn’t move the needle as much as a Kjerstad or Mayo would though. He’d be a really fine 2nd piece but not the main piece in a Cease deal 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Rey21 said:

I just don’t see the Sox taking this deal, they value Cease much higher, rightfully so. If Mayo/Kjerstad aren’t the headliner then there’s really no reason to budge from the Sox side 

There is plenty of reason for it…because they aren’t getting a player close to Mayo and maybe they get something close to Kjerstad. They need to trade Cease for the best deal possible. Thinking one of them has to be in it is foolish and really limits your options for any trade.

[Nardiwashere]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not saying I agree with the mentality but if you think Cowser is a 3.5+ WAR, AS level type guy who is going to make no money for the next 6-7 years, you can understand not trading that for a medium risk/high reward starter that only has 2 years left.

I think if the Os could do a quantity type deal..like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers and a lottery ticket type guy, that the Os would be all over it.

Im just not convinced they will deal a guy in their top 5.

I'd be super bummed out if I was an Orioles fan and my team had all this duplicative offensive talent but they were too cheap to sign top of the rotation guys and too timid to trade for them.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said:

I'd be super bummed out if I was an Orioles fan and my team had all this duplicative offensive talent but they were too cheap to sign top of the rotation guys and too timid to trade for them.

Especially if that glove guy was more exposed as Yolmer Sanchez than a 3-4 fWAR borderline All Star level talent some seasons.

[SoCalChiSox]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

…coughs…

If we get to the start of spring training and he hasn't been moved, it is only then that your theory might have some merit. 

The rubber hasn't met the road yet. Not even close. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I'd be super bummed out if I was an Orioles fan and my team had all this duplicative offensive talent but they were too cheap to sign top of the rotation guys and too timid to trade for them.

Yea, it’s not ideal. OTOH, they did just win 101 games without doing that and I would argue that they have 2 TOR starters right now and Means has been good to very good in the past, when healthy.

That said, they need another starter. Actually, if it were me, I would be trading Kremer and adding 2 starters, with one of them being a high end young arm that maybe isn’t experienced or proven but has the high ceiling.  We have the ML and MiL assets to pull both things off.

[Nardiwashere]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is plenty of reason for it…because they aren’t getting a player close to Mayo and maybe they get something close to Kjerstad. They need to trade Cease for the best deal possible. Thinking one of them has to be in it is foolish and really limits your options for any trade.

I don't know how you can say this.  No one has any idea what caliber of players are being floated or who they end up getting. 

Another thing- the Sox aren't under some deadline to make a deal.  Baltimore and teams that are looking to win are under more pressure to make a deal.  Sox can hold on to him until they get a fair price.  Someone will pull the trigger.  Cheap controllable SPs with potential to be elite are not easy to come by.

[Nardiwashere]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Especially if that glove guy was more exposed as Yolmer Sanchez than a 3-4 fWAR borderline All Star level talent some seasons.

Exactly.  You could end up looking back and thinking "We kept THAT guy and now our window is closed?"

[Rey21]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is plenty of reason for it…because they aren’t getting a player close to Mayo and maybe they get something close to Kjerstad. They need to trade Cease for the best deal possible. Thinking one of them has to be in it is foolish and really limits your options for any trade.

Why? Sox have the leverage, they don’t HAVE to trade Cease, and it sounds like they prefer pitching prospects over positional prospects, O’s don’t meet that criteria as much as others do. If Mayo or Kjerstad aren’t in the deal then I’m moving on, not worth it then. 

[SoCalChiSox]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not saying I agree with the mentality but if you think Cowser is a 3.5+ WAR, AS level type guy who is going to make no money for the next 6-7 years, you can understand not trading that for a medium risk/high reward starter that only has 2 years left.

I think if the Os could do a quantity type deal..like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers and a lottery ticket type guy, that the Os would be all over it.

Im just not convinced they will deal a guy in their top 5.

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero.

If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. 

Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him. 

[Nardiwashere]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, it’s not ideal. OTOH, they did just win 101 games without doing that and I would argue that they have 2 TOR starters right now and Means has been good to very good in the past, when healthy.

That said, they need another starter. Actually, if it were me, I would be trading Kremer and adding 2 starters, with one of them being a high end young arm that maybe isn’t experienced or proven but has the high ceiling.  We have the ML and MiL assets to pull both things off.

I'm of the opinion that winning 101 games last year makes it more urgent to go for it.  They are in a window right now.  Its not like they will continue to win 100 games a season in perpetuity in the AL East.  

 

Who is the second TOR guy?  Grayson Rodriguez?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I don't know how you can say this.  No one has any idea what caliber of players are being floated or who they end up getting. 

Another thing- the Sox aren't under some deadline to make a deal.  Baltimore and teams that are looking to win are under more pressure to make a deal.  Sox can hold on to him until they get a fair price.  Someone will pull the trigger.  Cheap controllable SPs with potential to be elite are not easy to come by.

If they could get a top 20 prospect for Cease, the deal would be done.  No chance of that.

A guy at the level of Kjerstad or Cowser is possible…MLb has Cowser as the 14th best prospect, most are more in the 25-40 range. Kjerstad is in a similar range.  They may get a prospect in that range but if you look at all the prospects in the top 40, most of them are either not being dealt at all or teams that have them aren’t in that market.

The options dwindle quickly.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Why? Sox have the leverage, they don’t HAVE to trade Cease, and it sounds like they prefer pitching prospects over positional prospects, O’s don’t meet that criteria as much as others do. If Mayo or Kjerstad aren’t in the deal then I’m moving on, not worth it then. 

No, they don’t have to trade Cease but they would be pretty foolish to hold onto him too.

Hell, they are foolish for hanging onto Robert imo.