Cease To Padres per Passan

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Lmao come on. That's just ridiculous. His lowest fWAR the past 3 seasons was 3.7, which was last season. Somehow he has zero trade value now?

Think about what the Cubs got for Yu Darvish. That's about the best you could do. 

[Jerksticks]

25 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Think about what the Cubs got for Yu Darvish. That's about the best you could do. 

Cease is like 2 years for 20M or so.  And a team will get his ages 28-29 seasons.  I don’t think this is the comp you think it is.  

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Think about what the Cubs got for Yu Darvish. That's about the best you could do. 

That’s not even a remotely comparable situation to Cease right now. The Reds trading Luis Castillo is a lot more similar to where Cease is at now and the Reds got a good amount for Castillo.

[PolishPrince34]

9 hours ago, Quin said:

Whatever do you mean???

 

Power Windows!

[T R U]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Would you have wanted Cease starting a playoff game in 2023?

Surely for regular season...but that 2020 Game 3 starter dilemma still exists to an extent.

Cease Dunning Crochet etc.  (Just saying this because Dane wasn't featured by Texas, either.)

All depends on what the pitching coaches around baseball think about his  arsenal and how it could be adjusted to get back closer to 2022...other than rediscovering 1.5 missing on the FB and the crispness of that pitch that everything else starts with...particularly the slider.

 

From September until the EOS, he had a 2.83 ERA and was striking out almost 12 per 9. So yeah, I would say he probably would have helped any team going into the playoffs in 2023.

Still had a FIP of 3.72 playing on a 100 loss team with no offense or defense.

At 28 years old with 2 season of control left and front off the rotation appeal, if traded he will absolutely bring back a nice package.

[bmags]

I kinda agree with the "Would you want Cease starting a playoff game" train of thought for the Orioles after living through the last few years.

I think the team trading for Cease is a move to ensure you can win the division. I kinda wonder if Orioles are even worried about that anymore.

But you look at the championship series and see some teams that traded for playoff enforcers in Scherzer and Verlander on those teams, and then a team grabbing a guy who was just pretty dominant mid season.

If you are Orioles, do you really want to pay that much for control? I think they do if they think they have a strong plan for Cease like Astros had for Cole.

The other issue here again is the Brewers looking to dump their pitching, who have post season success. If I'm Balt i'd rather veer that way.

Doesn't mean Cease has no market, just I don't think Orioles are the fit everyone else does. 

I wonder if a team like the Phillies goes after him with a package like Painter + Crawford. They have players to bring in with cash, but still not a perfect team so getting a top young pitcher via trade to ensure a playoff spot makes sense to me at least.

[Quin]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I kinda agree with the "Would you want Cease starting a playoff game" train of thought for the Orioles after living through the last few years.

I think the team trading for Cease is a move to ensure you can win the division. I kinda wonder if Orioles are even worried about that anymore.

But you look at the championship series and see some teams that traded for playoff enforcers in Scherzer and Verlander on those teams, and then a team grabbing a guy who was just pretty dominant mid season.

If you are Orioles, do you really want to pay that much for control? I think they do if they think they have a strong plan for Cease like Astros had for Cole.

The other issue here again is the Brewers looking to dump their pitching, who have post season success. If I'm Balt i'd rather veer that way.

Doesn't mean Cease has no market, just I don't think Orioles are the fit everyone else does. 

I wonder if a team like the Phillies goes after him with a package like Painter + Crawford. They have players to bring in with cash, but still not a perfect team so getting a top young pitcher via trade to ensure a playoff spot makes sense to me at least.

I'm trying to also think of it from the perspective of which teams might try to extend him vs. which would use him as a hired gun for 2 years.

Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox would try to extend him.

Padres might if they're still trying to contend and have all their money coming off the books. Reds are a toss up.

Orioles, nah.

[T R U]

7 minutes ago, Quin said:

I'm trying to also think of it from the perspective of which teams might try to extend him vs. which would use him as a hired gun for 2 years.

Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox would try to extend him.

Padres might if they're still trying to contend and have all their money coming off the books. Reds are a toss up.

Orioles, nah.

The Orioles are a great fit on paper, young team ready to compete now. Need a top SP, they have assets they can trade without hurting their team now and in the future.

In reality, they are a terrible fit. They are reluctant to trade any of these high end guys, they have already come out and said they can't even resign their own players so like you said above, there is no way they would resign Cease for what it would take.

[MiddleCoastBias]

6 minutes ago, T R U said:

The Orioles are a great fit on paper, young team ready to compete now. Need a top SP, they have assets they can trade without hurting their team now and in the future.

In reality, they are a terrible fit. They are reluctant to trade any of these high end guys, they have already come out and said they can't even resign their own players so like you said above, there is no way they would resign Cease for what it would take.

That's an interesting perspective, haven't thought of yet. So you're suggesting they won't be in the market for the hired gun to put them over the top, like the Cubs' move for Lester? 

I can see them not making the trade with the intention of extending him, but they may look at the 'contention window math' see that two years of "win now" Cease is worth more than five+ years of "sustained success" with whichever prospects are being considered.

[T R U]

2 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

That's an interesting perspective, haven't thought of yet. So you're suggesting they won't be in the market for the hired gun to put them over the top, like the Cubs' move for Lester? 

I can see them not making the trade with the intention of extending him, but they may look at the 'contention window math' see that two years of "win now" Cease is worth more than five+ years of "sustained success" with whichever prospects are being considered.

They will for sure be in the market, but I don't think they will pay what the White Sox are asking.

He's more valuable to a team like the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. because they get him for 2 years cheap and then they will still control him through an extension. You can pay the prospect price when you know you are getting many years of this asset.

Baltimore, in my opinion, will not pay the fair price because they know they only get 2 years from him and that's it. I really believe if Baltimore was serious about it Cease would have been traded there at the deadline. They obviously got pretty deep in the discussions.

You might just hold out hope they go "Welp, maybe if we had traded for Cease we wouldn't have been swept out of the playoffs."

[Vote4Pedro]

9 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Think about what the Cubs got for Yu Darvish. That's about the best you could do. 

Darvish was a pure salary dump, not comparable whatsoever 

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

That's an interesting perspective, haven't thought of yet. So you're suggesting they won't be in the market for the hired gun to put them over the top, like the Cubs' move for Lester? 

I can see them not making the trade with the intention of extending him, but they may look at the 'contention window math' see that two years of "win now" Cease is worth more than five+ years of "sustained success" with whichever prospects are being considered.

I think they are more likely to be in the trade deadline market for an expiring, veteran starting pitcher who they can trust in the playoffs.

OR they've kicked themselves for missing just a talented expiring like Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. I think they'll do a mercenary play for pitching each year, they will probably be able to replenish that prospect depth with their current operation.

[Quin]

Horrifying thought exercise time: Getz keeps Cease till the deadline and try to package Moncada or Eloy with him.

[JoeC]

Moncada's contract should become far less relevant as we get closer to the deadline, no?

[Quin]

13 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Moncada's contract should become far less relevant as we get closer to the deadline, no?

For most teams, but consider Jerry.

[JoeC]

23 minutes ago, Quin said:

For most teams, but consider Jerry.

Point taken.

[WestEddy]

47 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Moncada's contract should become far less relevant as we get closer to the deadline, no?

On july 31, 2024, the Sox will owe Moncada $13 million, yet. Unless he's having a truly historic, breakout season, he's dead weight. 

[T R U]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

On july 31, 2024, the Sox will owe Moncada $13 million, yet. Unless he's having a truly historic, breakout season, he's dead weight. 

Meh, if hes having a productive season there's no reason you can't see Moncada moved for something interesting with the Sox kicking in money.

[baseball_gal_aly]

9 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

That’s not even a remotely comparable situation to Cease right now. The Reds trading Luis Castillo is a lot more similar to where Cease is at now and the Reds got a good amount for Castillo.

You know what, you're right about this one. Castillo is a really good comp for Cease because he was as inconsistent as Cease was but with premium stuff. What was the deal for him I forget? I think Castillo had a little more control than Cease does but I could be wrong. The major difference between Castillo and Cease is that I think Castillo had more good seasons than Cease did. 

[Quin]

12 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

You know what, you're right about this one. Castillo is a really good comp for Cease because he was as inconsistent as Cease was but with premium stuff. What was the deal for him I forget? I think Castillo had a little more control than Cease does but I could be wrong. The major difference between Castillo and Cease is that I think Castillo had more good seasons than Cease did. 

Reds got Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, and Andrew Moore

[T R U]

Castillo was 29 years old and I believe had 1.5 years of control left. Castillo had more good seasons than Cease but mostly because he was in MLB 2 years before Cease debuted. Very comparable numbers.

The Mariners sent 4 prospects to the Reds, 3 of them were in the Mariners top 5 prospects and 2 of those were top 100 prospects overall (#18 and #93).

Edited November 13, 2023 by T R U

[Quin]

Anyway, from the Orioles, how unreasonable am I being here?

Kjerstad, Bradfield (should have been the Sox pick once Teel was off the board), Povich and Juan Nunez for Cease and any random throw in like Jimmy Lambert.

[WBWSF]

Some people  think that Cease won't bring that much in return. If that's true why not simply keep him on the team and resign him? Cease indicated last year that he would be willing  to sign an extension with the White Sox. Maybe I'm missing something here but if Cease is traded who's going to be the Opening Day starter, Kopech? It would be a good PR move if Cease was given an extension.

[T R U]

12 minutes ago, Quin said:

Anyway, from the Orioles, how unreasonable am I being here?

Kjerstad, Bradfield (should have been the Sox pick once Teel was off the board), Povich and Juan Nunez for Cease and any random throw in like Jimmy Lambert.

I think that would be a good get for us for sure. I don't see how that hurts Baltimore down the line either.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

37 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

You know what, you're right about this one. Castillo is a really good comp for Cease because he was as inconsistent as Cease was but with premium stuff. What was the deal for him I forget? I think Castillo had a little more control than Cease does but I could be wrong. The major difference between Castillo and Cease is that I think Castillo had more good seasons than Cease did. 

Castillo fetched 2 top 100 prospects and 2 low level pitchers. I think Castillo was better than Cease is now, but Cease has half a season more control now than Castillo did so I think the return should be roughly the same.