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Cease To Padres per Passan


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16 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Crazy to think the Sox will make money. I understand why they will (TV revenue,  which baffles me. The economy is totally in the tank; have u walked out of a grocery story paying under 60 bucks just for some fruit, lunch meat, just a couple odds and ends like toothpaste?) yet somehow the networks can pay exorbitant amounts for a sport with low ratings. The Sox will be unwatchable next year yet the TV money piles in. Very strange stuff. ... Think of how bad this team is going to be. Nobody's gonna watch.

That said ... get the biggest haul you can for Cease. The Sox aren't gonna contend for a while even if everybody wants that. We have to face reality. Try to get somebody as good a prospect as Robert. Throw TA in the deal and make it a blockbuster (even tho TA lost all power and is not very good anymore).

TA is a free agent. Can’t blame you for not paying attention. 

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17 minutes ago, Quin said:

Greg out here buying wagyu cold cuts and handpicked heirloom pomegranates.

POM?

Not sure the latter even exists in Lawrence…

Greg better stick to Subway meal deals.  Outside of Krugman and Friedman, he might be more obsessed with the prices of everything than anyone west of the University of Chicago.

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7 hours ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Pale Sox is too worried about the economy to notice. This is a baseball discussion site, and not a place to complain about the cost of groceries or the economy.

Tough crowd. I was noting in a horrid economy baseball apparently is exempt making $$$ no matter the fact u can't leave a grocery store without 60 bucks stripped from the wallet. Sports are immune.

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12 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said:

Right now our starting staff has to be the worst I’ve seen since I became a Sox fan in 1952, I don’t see how we can trade Cease at this time unless there are plans to sign some decent free agent pitchers. I also wouldn’t be unhappy if they brought back Giolitio, he wasn’t that bad with the Sox in 2023 with a .500 record and a 3.74 ERA. He stunk the rest of the year after we traded him, depending on what he wants and for how long I think he ‘s worth a shot.

There isn't REALLY a path to contention in 2024, but I'm guessing that the FO has decided the fanbase isn't ready to hear them utter "rebuild." Because they think we're idiots, it seems like (based on Getz' comments about no one being untouchable + the rumors of them shopping guys like Cease), that they're going to just do it anyway and pretend they aren't -- perhaps believing that it will give them the cover to half-ass it instead of trying again to do it properly. This could be either because Jerry can't handle the wait, or because they've correctly assessed that they aren't in a good position to pivot (with so many of their expensive players currently with no trade value), or both.

I predict we're going to see an offseason very similar to what you'd see from the Tigers, in which a lot of money will be spent on short-term veterans that fill holes and be dealt if useful, but won't stop any of the prospects from earning PT along the way. The hope will be that the "core" bounces back to the extent that a run at the division is possible with the stopgaps in place, but they'll settle for merely having a lot of guys to move for more low-upside, close-to-the-majors prospects that can provide similar value for cheap going forward.

Was trying to keep the cynicism out but it crept back there toward the end, sorry.

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13 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

There isn't REALLY a path to contention in 2024, but I'm guessing that the FO has decided the fanbase isn't ready to hear them utter "rebuild." Because they think we're idiots, it seems like (based on Getz' comments about no one being untouchable + the rumors of them shopping guys like Cease), that they're going to just do it anyway and pretend they aren't -- perhaps believing that it will give them the cover to half-ass it instead of trying again to do it properly. This could be either because Jerry can't handle the wait, or because they've correctly assessed that they aren't in a good position to pivot (with so many of their expensive players currently with no trade value), or both.

I predict we're going to see an offseason very similar to what you'd see from the Tigers, in which a lot of money will be spent on short-term veterans that fill holes and be dealt if useful, but won't stop any of the prospects from earning PT along the way. The hope will be that the "core" bounces back to the extent that a run at the division is possible with the stopgaps in place, but they'll settle for merely having a lot of guys to move for more low-upside, close-to-the-majors prospects that can provide similar value for cheap going forward.

Was trying to keep the cynicism out but it crept back there toward the end, sorry.

One time I got free tickets to this STH event where the sox hall of famers had a luncheon with pretty much every living one but Frank. This was just after Baines got elected.

I was kinda floored to be sitting at the table with fans who like, did all the "sox cruises" or "sox vacation in mexico" where these people just like loved the sox and loved every player on it regardless and just wanted to go to games and root for them.

JR was there. There were like 100 people total.

Anyway my first thought after that experience is this is who Jerry thinks the fanbase is. These very nice, incredibly forgiving group of people that just wanna see nice young men play baseball.

And so maybe that is who JR is trying to communicate to and it seems so insane to us.

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20 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I guess saying if I was an opposing team I wouldn't trade anything but a bag of balls was hyperbole, but I agree with Balta about Cease's value. 

Yes but you also have to remember Balta thought we would get a bag of balls for Giolito as well at the deadline.

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16 minutes ago, T R U said:

Yes but you also have to remember Balta thought we would get a bag of balls for Giolito as well at the deadline.

To be fair, I believe he actually thought we'd get Joseph Bagiballo, who is a DH/1B at High A in the Pirate organization. It was just a miscommunication.

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Here's a really dumb trade that made me laugh where sox take back Stanton + cash for Cease and get Hampton/Jones/+ and we end up in that fun period after GarPax talked about getting better defensively and then them being excited about getting an old dinger-hitter 
 

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3 hours ago, T R U said:

Yes but you also have to remember Balta thought we would get a bag of balls for Giolito as well at the deadline.

Given how Giolito produced after the trade, a bag of balls would've been more appropriate. 

They got a coup in that trade. (Though idk if Ky Bush ever turns out to be anything) 

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4 hours ago, T R U said:

Yes but you also have to remember Balta thought we would get a bag of balls for Giolito as well at the deadline.

You're right, I substantially underestimated the demand for pitching at the trade deadline this year, I'll take that.

I will also point out that last year I was laughed at when I said that Eloy + Anderson wasn't going to return the #1 prospect in baseball and that we shouldn't do that because Eloy might hit 40 home runs this year. I'm gonna call myself more correct on that one. So sometimes I'm right, and sometimes others are right. 

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7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You're right, I substantially underestimated the demand for pitching at the trade deadline this year, I'll take that.

I will also point out that last year I was laughed at when I said that Eloy + Anderson wasn't going to return the #1 prospect in baseball and that we shouldn't do that because Eloy might hit 40 home runs this year. I'm gonna call myself more correct on that one. So sometimes I'm right, and sometimes others are right. 

I’m not laughing at you, I’m just saying what a lot of these guys are worth is more than what fans think. 

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On 11/14/2023 at 8:22 PM, GreenSox said:

Twitter Summary:
Cardinals:  Brendan Donovan plus a low-level prospect
RedSox:  Verdugo plus 2 low-level prospects
Reds:  India, straight up.

Ha ha. I guess we're keeping Cease.

I despise the concept of Jonathan India (45 hit/50 power/35 field/70 flow) as even part of a trade. Verdugo would replace Clevinger/D-Bo as the embarrassing guy to root for. (Google it.) Donovan probably is a 4th of/platoon bat. I mean, he's not horrible, but c'mon.  I do love his similarity through age 26 to Hoot Evans.

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2 hours ago, T R U said:

I’m not laughing at you, I’m just saying what a lot of these guys are worth is more than what fans think. 

I think that we caught a wave, the trade deadline this year was a time with a lot of teams wanting to compete and not a lot willing to trade starting pitching, so teams made deals they otherwise wouldn't have. Take a look at the returns the Mets got for their starters, they loaded up despite teams taking on $20 million a season. 

If a team is that desperate for starters right now, they have free agency, they have Oakland constantly trying to sell everything, they have Cleveland and Milwaukee both seemingly in places where they should be selling front line guys, they have other teams like the Rays who always have arms to move. Several of these teams would not have sold off players in the season, they will do so right now. The trade market has more options than over the summer, and there's an entire second market in free agency with some quality arms. 

Maybe someone misses out on several and gets desperate in February. I could understand that happening, a rush depletes the market and someone feels they have no choice to make a move. For now? Cease is what, the 4th best starter on the MLBTR list of trade candidates? Are we expecting there to be so many trades that 10 or 20% of the MLB top 100 prospects change teams this offseason? 

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27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think that we caught a wave, the trade deadline this year was a time with a lot of teams wanting to compete and not a lot willing to trade starting pitching, so teams made deals they otherwise wouldn't have. Take a look at the returns the Mets got for their starters, they loaded up despite teams taking on $20 million a season. 

If a team is that desperate for starters right now, they have free agency, they have Oakland constantly trying to sell everything, they have Cleveland and Milwaukee both seemingly in places where they should be selling front line guys, they have other teams like the Rays who always have arms to move. Several of these teams would not have sold off players in the season, they will do so right now. The trade market has more options than over the summer, and there's an entire second market in free agency with some quality arms. 

Maybe someone misses out on several and gets desperate in February. I could understand that happening, a rush depletes the market and someone feels they have no choice to make a move. For now? Cease is what, the 4th best starter on the MLBTR list of trade candidates? Are we expecting there to be so many trades that 10 or 20% of the MLB top 100 prospects change teams this offseason? 

For what it's worth, that list isn't ranking value, it's a combo of value + likelihood to be dealt.

From the Luis Robert (24th) blurb:

Quote

Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the possibility of listening to offers on anyone.

 

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5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think that we caught a wave, the trade deadline this year was a time with a lot of teams wanting to compete and not a lot willing to trade starting pitching, so teams made deals they otherwise wouldn't have. Take a look at the returns the Mets got for their starters, they loaded up despite teams taking on $20 million a season. 

If a team is that desperate for starters right now, they have free agency, they have Oakland constantly trying to sell everything, they have Cleveland and Milwaukee both seemingly in places where they should be selling front line guys, they have other teams like the Rays who always have arms to move. Several of these teams would not have sold off players in the season, they will do so right now. The trade market has more options than over the summer, and there's an entire second market in free agency with some quality arms. 

Maybe someone misses out on several and gets desperate in February. I could understand that happening, a rush depletes the market and someone feels they have no choice to make a move. For now? Cease is what, the 4th best starter on the MLBTR list of trade candidates? Are we expecting there to be so many trades that 10 or 20% of the MLB top 100 prospects change teams this offseason? 

You’d make a great lawyer with the way you’re able to spin things to suit whatever your argument is.  4th best starter?  That article clearly states “this isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved.”  If you can’t see that two years of cheap Dylan Cease ($10M in 2024) is worth more than one year of Glasnow ($25M), Burnes ($15M), and Bieber ($12M), then there isn’t a second wasting time with you on this.

And not all teams can just go buy TOR starters in free agency because 1) There aren’t many of them and 2) They are incredibly expensive.  The Orioles simply can’t leverage free agency to get what they need this year.  The Cardinals need multiple starters of impact and can’t do it all in free agency.  The Phillies are right up against the luxury tax and may not be able to blow past that with an expensive long-term deal.  Cease is a unique asset in this market and there will be many suitors.  You’re once again underestimating the TOR SP market.

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