Crochet Trade Outcome Tracker

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I've read multiple posters talk about how the White Sox won the Crochet deal and came out well ahead.... because some guys are putting up decent numbers in the minors.

I decided it would be fun to track the trade somewhere.

Crochet turned into a generational talent, only the 2nd white sox pitcher with true 1-1 capabilities in the game. I find it hard to believe you can easily win any deal trading that. I've been wrong before though:

Crochet through roughly 3 starts (still an inning or two left tonight):

18 IP, 2ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 2.01 FIP, .7 WAR.

Sox return: 

0

[WhiteSox2023]

I doubt Wikelman Gonzalez will pan out to be anything other than a bad reliever, but if they manage to get one or two good starting position players among Teel, Montgomery, and Meidroth that would be great.  Three would be amazing albeit unlikely.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox end up winning the trade, just like they did with Sale.

The sad fact is that as long as JR is the owner, this will be what happens to any potential aces that the Sox manage to draft and develop.

Edited April 9 by WhiteSox2023

[Tony]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've read multiple posters talk about how the White Sox won the Crochet deal and came out well ahead.... because some guys are putting up decent numbers in the minors.

I decided it would be fun to track the trade somewhere.

Crochet turned into a generational talent, only the 2nd white sox pitcher with true 1-1 capabilities in the game. I find it hard to believe you can easily win any deal trading that. I've been wrong before though:

Crochet through roughly 3 starts (still an inning or two left tonight):

18 IP, 2ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 2.01 FIP, .7 WAR.

Sox return: 

0

I mean, this is kind of a bad way to frame it.

This is a layered topic, they could have gone a few different ways with Crochet. I was in the camp that they should have locked him up given his age, but that was never going to happen with Jerry. If I put myself in the shoes of Getz, knowing the team needed to reset and the limited assets in the org, Crochet didn’t serve much purpose on this team in 2025 and 2026.

The package seemed fair but obviously it will take years to determine if they got quality out of it. But in a perfect world, given where this team is at, if they can get 2 quality starting caliber MLB players out of Crochet, it made some sense.

[southsider2k5]

I thought the package was basically fair, though it would have been nice to do better on the back end of the deal.  But that being said, measuring this trade two weeks into the season based on MLB stats only is absurd.  It will be years before we REALLY know what we got back.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I thought the package was basically fair, though it would have been nice to do better on the back end of the deal.  But that being said, measuring this trade two weeks into the season based on MLB stats only is absurd.  It will be years before we REALLY know what we got back.

Never said it wouldn't, hence the tracker.

Based on Getz track record, this trade will be a disaster.

[hogan873]

35 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Never said it wouldn't, hence the tracker.

Based on Getz track record, this trade will be a disaster.

The Crochet trade was only the second major trade Getz made, and the Cease trade is shaping up to be an absolute disaster...unless Thorpe has a Henry Rowengartner like recovery.  Right now, the Crochet trade looks to be potentially fair.  Meidroth and Teel could be making an impact with the big league club this year, and honestly Meidroth should be starting at SS everyday for the Sox right now.  Montgomery could be the best part of the trade, but it'll be a few years before we know for sure.

My point is that Getz does not have much of a track record with big trades.  His overall track record, at least with player acquisition, is not great.  But at least two of Meidroth, Teel, and Montgomery being impactful players for the Sox improves his track record.

[MikeKreevich]

You can have the best pitcher in baseball and unless your team can score runs, what good is he?

[hogan873]

6 minutes ago, MikeKreevich said:

You can have the best pitcher in baseball and unless your team can score runs, what good is he?

Shane Smith woke up this morning asking the same question.

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Never said it wouldn't, hence the tracker.

Based on Getz track record, this trade will be a disaster.

It’s dangerous because we already had a top catching prospect…and we already know how catching beats up even the best hitters.  Maybe one shifts to 1B/DH.

But we desperately needed a true SS and CF and got neither. 

For now, Braden is playing CF, but nearly every scout around the game projects him as a RFer.

 

Meidroth has become an early favorite with fans…but it’s hardly like he is a consensus Top 100 prospect, even.  He is the next man up, the likeliest to be promoted at Charlotte, however.

To me, Meidroth and Gonzalez feel almost more like Basabe/Victor Diaz in the Sale trade.  Except Chase is sort of like a cult hero at this point.

One thing he is not, is an everyday major league SS.
 

Unfortunately, neither is Baldwin.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It’s dangerous because we already had a top catching prospect…and we already know how catching beats up even the best hitters.  Maybe one shifts to 1B/DH.

But we desperately needed a true SS and CF and got neither. 

For now, Braden is playing CF, but nearly every scout around the game projects him as a RFer.

 

Meidroth has become an early favorite with fans…but it’s hardly like he is a consensus Top 100 prospect, even.  He is the next man up, the likeliest to be promoted at Charlotte, however.

To me, Meidroth and Gonzalez feel almost more like Basabe/Victor Diaz in the Sale trade.  Except Chase is sort of like a cult hero at this point.

One thing he is not, is an everyday major league SS.
 

Unfortunately, neither is Baldwin.

Victor Diaz was barely a prospect and leagues below Gonzalez.  And Meidroth has the highest Steamer 600 projection on the team, so probably a bit better than Basabe who never really amounted anything.  The backend of this deal blows the backend of the Sale deal out of the water.

[BamaDoc]

I have wondered, do you look at the trade differently knowing it took 6-170 to sign him?  If you operate on a budget,(granted we could/should do more) can you risk one guy with his arm history on that contract?  

[T R U]

15 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I have wondered, do you look at the trade differently knowing it took 6-170 to sign him?  If you operate on a budget,(granted we could/should do more) can you risk one guy with his arm history on that contract?  

The White Sox will always win this trade regardless of what happens simply because they would never have signed him to an extension and he would have walked for nothing after 2026.

Having an ace for two 100 loss seasons really means nothing. The options were trade him or take a comp pick. They chose the right option. 

[WhiteSox2023]

33 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I have wondered, do you look at the trade differently knowing it took 6-170 to sign him?  If you operate on a budget,(granted we could/should do more) can you risk one guy with his arm history on that contract?  

No, because like TRU said, the owner of the team would never have allowed Getz to sign Crochet to that contract, whether he wanted to or not.  Signing Crochet was never an option.

Edited April 9 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

19 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've read multiple posters talk about how the White Sox won the Crochet deal and came out well ahead.... because some guys are putting up decent numbers in the minors.

I decided it would be fun to track the trade somewhere.

Crochet turned into a generational talent, only the 2nd white sox pitcher with true 1-1 capabilities in the game. I find it hard to believe you can easily win any deal trading that. I've been wrong before though:

Crochet through roughly 3 starts (still an inning or two left tonight):

18 IP, 2ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 2.01 FIP, .7 WAR.

Sox return: 

0

Number of HRs Crochet may ever hit with any MLB team: 0

Number of HRs Montgomery/Teel/Meidroth may ever hit with White Sox: I'd say 100-200

Sox win that trade hands down. 

 

[Jake]

Crochet was a massive risk for the Sox to hold onto and equally large risk to give a 9 figure contract to. A starting pitcher with significant injury history, limited experience, and relatively close proximity to free agency had to go. Will the players we got back be amazing? Only time will tell. I think it's pretty clear that the in-the-moment market value of those players was pretty high and so I see it as a good sign that Getz was able to get them. Also, as far as winning the trade is concerned, the stuff Crochet does today would have just not been that useful to the Sox. If he had a bad year for the BoSox, yes that would be relevant to the discussion. But him pitching well right now is kind of table stakes. Will be hard to evaluate until years down the road when these prospects are either in the big leagues or not (if not, probably a dark sign for the White Sox side of the trade).

[fathom]

I will never criticize the Crochet trade, as the return made sense.  Same as I felt with Quintana and Sale deals.  It’s the Fedde and Cease deals that didn’t make much sense, in terms of player return.

[WhiteSox2023]

57 minutes ago, fathom said:

I will never criticize the Crochet trade, as the return made sense.  Same as I felt with Quintana and Sale deals.  It’s the Fedde and Cease deals that didn’t make much sense, in terms of player return.

The question now is how long of rope will Getz give Vargas before cutting bait on him and giving Ramos a shot at 3B?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

The question now is how long of rope will Getz give Vargas before cutting bait on him and giving Ramos a shot at 3B?

Has Ramos done anything to deserve a shot at AAA?

[WhiteSox2023]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Has Ramos done anything to deserve a shot at AAA?

I’m talking about months from now and assuming Ramos is hitting at the time and Vargas is still terrible.  No way Getz cuts bait on Vargas this soon.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I’m talking about months from now and assuming Ramos is hitting at the time and Vargas is still terrible.  No way Getz cuts bait on Vargas this soon.

I think you need to give Vargas three months in the majors before making any call on him because once you do it’s likely goodbye to him given the lack of options.  And Ramos likely needs a couple months in Charlotte anyways.  But yeah, will be interesting to see what Getz does there.  His top scout was hyping Vargas up this offseason so he can’t really blame the old scouting department if Miguel ends up being a flop.  My guess is he gives a decently long runway.

[PaleAleSox]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you need to give Vargas three months in the majors before making any call on him because once you do it’s likely goodbye to him given the lack of options.  And Ramos likely needs a couple months in Charlotte anyways.  But yeah, will be interesting to see what Getz does there.  His top scout was hyping Vargas up this offseason so he can’t really blame the old scouting department if Miguel ends up being a flop.  My guess is he gives a decently long runway.

I’m at least giving him a month or two when he isn’t freezing his ass off out there. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just a little mid-year update.

Crochet is the 4th best pitcher in MLB so far, and it's between Skubal, him and Skenes for most valuable arm in baseball.

Meidroth has been worth 1.1 fWAR in 33 games with a 111 wRC+. That's a really nice pace and Meidroth might be a 3-4 win consistent performer. He will likely need to find a little more contact authority or defenses will adjust and it will hamper his production, but he's shown enough for me to believe that could happen.

Teel has a 127 wRC+ in AAA. Given the Sox depth at catcher, I always found this to be an odd centerpiece. All in all though, Teel has maintained his status and projection but don't believe he's taken any steps up in status.

Montgomery has a 143 wRC+ in A+. I think it's clear that Montgomery will be more highly rated come mid-season update than he was pre-season. How he performs at AA will be big for his projection/expectation going forward.

Gonzalez, like all other pitching prospects, can't throw strikes. If he doesn't improve his zone control, he will not be worth anything.

 

All in all, I think the winner is still clearly the team getting the generational talent BUT Meidroth will really lift the floor of this trade if he continues on his path. We still need to see success from Teel AND Montgomery to make this a win given the uniqueness of Crochet's skills.

Edited May 30 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[MiddleCoastBias]

On 4/9/2025 at 6:51 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you need to give Vargas three months in the majors before making any call on him because once you do it’s likely goodbye to him given the lack of options.  And Ramos likely needs a couple months in Charlotte anyways.  But yeah, will be interesting to see what Getz does there.  His top scout was hyping Vargas up this offseason so he can’t really blame the old scouting department if Miguel ends up being a flop.  My guess is he gives a decently long runway.

This Vargas take has aged quite nicely given his recent turn for the positive.

[kitekrazy]

decent numbers in the minors means nothing, it's impressive numbers

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

This Vargas take has aged quite nicely given his recent turn for the positive.

Finally, a take that doesn't age poorly.