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Crochet Trade Outcome Tracker


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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I don't think the FG series is useful. At best it captures a moving target at a singular moment. 

I find it to be a decent barometer for league perspectives on trade value as its the only series that gets front office thoughts from most teams to determine a players spot. 

Do I think it defines value? Nope, but I do think a guy going from HM to top 17 is likely a guy the league views more fondly than they did the year prior.

I also dont think it should be a surprise to anyone that crochet staying healthy and leading baseball in IP would increase his value quite a bit given that his only concern was health and durability.

Also @MEANS, why don't you try participating in the discussion for once instead of going around adding bag emoji's over all my posts. While I appreciate the emojis, I'm sure you'd enjoy it more if you just got to call me a dope instead of using the emoji.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Well, take it up with the ranking he received. I'd usually hesitate to cite anything publicly available as a good barometer, but they do a good job communicating with team leaders throughout the league and getting a good baseline. It seems undeniable that he's worth more today than he was even 5 months ago. 

I think one could argue the package the Sox received in this trade is also worth more today than 5 months ago.

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58 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I find it to be a decent barometer for league perspectives on trade value as its the only series that gets front office thoughts from most teams to determine a players spot. 

Do I think it defines value? Nope, but I do think a guy going from HM to top 17 is likely a guy the league views more fondly than they did the year prior.

I also dont think it should be a surprise to anyone that crochet staying healthy and leading baseball in IP would increase his value quite a bit given that his only concern was health and durability.

Also @MEANS, why don't you try participating in the discussion for once instead of going around adding bag emoji's over all my posts. While I appreciate the emojis, I'm sure you'd enjoy it more if you just got to call me a dope instead of using the emoji.

It's fine as a fun exercise to get people talking. I just don't see much utility in trying to pin down a moving target. Anyways, repeating myself so I'll bow out of this one.

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5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I find it to be a decent barometer for league perspectives on trade value as its the only series that gets front office thoughts from most teams to determine a players spot. 

Do I think it defines value? Nope, but I do think a guy going from HM to top 17 is likely a guy the league views more fondly than they did the year prior.

I also dont think it should be a surprise to anyone that crochet staying healthy and leading baseball in IP would increase his value quite a bit given that his only concern was health and durability.

Also @MEANS, why don't you try participating in the discussion for once instead of going around adding bag emoji's over all my posts. While I appreciate the emojis, I'm sure you'd enjoy it more if you just got to call me a dope instead of using the emoji.

I thought that guy only did it to me.  Glad to see him giving someone else his passive aggressive emoji attention.  🤣

Sorry it had to be you.  😇 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Garrett and Skubal have really started to separate themselves from the pack now.

He's 2nd in fWAR at 5, which is actually 1 full WAR higher than the 6th place guy (Hunter Brown). Skubal at 5.5 is leading the pack. 

Other Cat ranks:

3rd in ERA
3rd in FIP
4th in K/9
2nd in IP
2nd in Wins

Meanwhile:

Meidroth - 1.2 fWAR
Teel - .7 fWAR

Montgomery 167 wRC+ at AA and having a nice year in general. 

With Gonzalez not looking like he'll amount to much of anything, this trade looks like it's going to come down to whether Montgomery turns into a ++ player or not. I think Teel will be an everyday catcher, but Meidroth is trending towards a utility guy and a catch+Util player would be a huge loss of a trade for the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Garrett and Skubal have really started to separate themselves from the pack now.

He's 2nd in fWAR at 5, which is actually 1 full WAR higher than the 6th place guy (Hunter Brown). Skubal at 5.5 is leading the pack. 

Other Cat ranks:

3rd in ERA
3rd in FIP
4th in K/9
2nd in IP
2nd in Wins

Meanwhile:

Meidroth - 1.2 fWAR
Teel - .7 fWAR

Montgomery 167 wRC+ at AA and having a nice year in general. 

With Gonzalez not looking like he'll amount to much of anything, this trade looks like it's going to come down to whether Montgomery turns into a ++ player or not. I think Teel will be an everyday catcher, but Meidroth is trending towards a utility guy and a catch+Util player would be a huge loss of a trade for the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

A 3+ WAR OF, a 2+ WAR catcher, and a 1-2 WAR utility IF would be an excellent return for a pitcher you were never going to sign and keep around. Obviously, this requires Montgomery to hold up his end of the deal. 

If Montgomery flames out and Teel floats between 1-2 war at peak, then yeah that's a pretty bad trade.

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1 hour ago, T R U said:

A 3+ WAR OF, a 2+ WAR catcher, and a 1-2 WAR utility IF would be an excellent return for a pitcher you were never going to sign and keep around. Obviously, this requires Montgomery to hold up his end of the deal. 

If Montgomery flames out and Teel floats between 1-2 war at peak, then yeah that's a pretty bad trade.

Teams aren't going to net a + when they trade 1 player that's worth 5+ WAR for 3 players worth 5+ WAR. 

The value of that one 5 WAR player is significantly higher than the value of those three players. That said, it's still very possible that Teel and Mont are 3+ WAR players, at which point both teams would win.

Can't emphasize how hard is to find unicorns like Crochet.

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6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Teams aren't going to net a + when they trade 1 player that's worth 5+ WAR for 3 players worth 5+ WAR. 

The value of that one 5 WAR player is significantly higher than the value of those three players. That said, it's still very possible that Teel and Mont are 3+ WAR players, at which point both teams would win.

Can't emphasize how hard is to find unicorns like Crochet.

Yeah but, again, the Sox were never going to keep him so getting 3 players that they control for 6 years that can put up a combined 5-6-7 WAR is gold to them. They wont sign a player that can do that by themselves.

In a perfect world, they just extend him and he's here forever.

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18 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Garrett and Skubal have really started to separate themselves from the pack now.

He's 2nd in fWAR at 5, which is actually 1 full WAR higher than the 6th place guy (Hunter Brown). Skubal at 5.5 is leading the pack. 

Other Cat ranks:

3rd in ERA
3rd in FIP
4th in K/9
2nd in IP
2nd in Wins

Meanwhile:

Meidroth - 1.2 fWAR
Teel - .7 fWAR

Montgomery 167 wRC+ at AA and having a nice year in general. 

With Gonzalez not looking like he'll amount to much of anything, this trade looks like it's going to come down to whether Montgomery turns into a ++ player or not. I think Teel will be an everyday catcher, but Meidroth is trending towards a utility guy and a catch+Util player would be a huge loss of a trade for the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

Way too early to write off Meidroth as a future utility guy when he has two elite skills on top of being a strong or capable defender up the middle.  Teel is flashing star catcher potential (his xwOBA is only .005 below Cal Raleigh).  Montgomery has been very good this year (142 wRC+ across three levels) despite coming off injury.

I still believe we end up with three everyday guys out of this group and I could see that being a +4 win Catcher, a +3 win RF, and a +2 win infielder.  If that’s the case, it’s a huge win for the White Sox given the lack of positional talent at the time.  In a perfect world you keep the true impact player and fill your holes in other ways, but unfortunately Rick Hahn made that a near impossibility with his incompetence.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Way too early to write off Meidroth as a future utility guy when he has two elite skills on top of being a strong or capable defender up the middle.  Teel is flashing star catcher potential (his xwOBA is only .005 below Cal Raleigh).  Montgomery has been very good this year (142 wRC+ across three levels) despite coming off injury.

I still believe we end up with three everyday guys out of this group and I could see that being a +4 win Catcher, a +3 win RF, and a +2 win infielder.  If that’s the case, it’s a huge win for the White Sox given the lack of positional talent at the time.  In a perfect world you keep the true impact player and fill your holes in other ways, but unfortunately Rick Hahn made that a near impossibility with his incompetence.

If Braden is not better than, let's say 2024 Wilyer Abreu...that's just not quite good enough.  He has to be a middle of the order consistent run producer and 25-30 homer guy.

And a huge jump for Teel from 2 to 4 fWAR because he won't get enough playing time if they DH Benintendi and Tauchman more often...as Quero will get at least 40% of time.

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37 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If Braden is not better than, let's say 2024 Wilyer Abreu...that's just not quite good enough.  He has to be a middle of the order consistent run producer and 25-30 homer guy.

And a huge jump for Teel from 2 to 4 fWAR because he won't get enough playing time if they DH Benintendi and Tauchman more often...as Quero will get at least 40% of time.

Didn’t say 4 win player next year…Sox will find a way to get both Teel and Quero in the lineup more frequently.  Benintendi & Tauchman are not long-term roadblocks.

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This team hasn't even had more than 1 offensive player have more than 2 WAR going on three full seasons now, if we end up getting 3 everyday players putting up a combined WAR in the range of 8-10 from trading away 1 player that had no shot at being here long term that is a major win.

Again, that needs to happen first before we celebrate but so far its looking really good.

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20 hours ago, T R U said:

A 3+ WAR OF, a 2+ WAR catcher, and a 1-2 WAR utility IF would be an excellent return for a pitcher you were never going to sign and keep around. Obviously, this requires Montgomery to hold up his end of the deal. 

If Montgomery flames out and Teel floats between 1-2 war at peak, then yeah that's a pretty bad trade.

It’s not about recouping value in general, it’s about value relative to what you should and could be getting 

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13 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:

It’s not about recouping value in general, it’s about value relative to what you should and could be getting 

I agree, but it's still going to be pretty bad if they give up a 5+ war pitcher and in return they get replacement level players.

I would say getting 3 everyday starters for a pitcher that had huge question marks and was looking to get paid would be great value. 

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9 minutes ago, T R U said:

I agree, but it's still going to be pretty bad if they give up a 5+ war pitcher and in return they get replacement level players.

I would say getting 3 everyday starters for a pitcher that had huge question marks and was looking to get paid would be great value. 

I don’t know what you do for a living, but it’s not real estate. Taking that perspective into a meeting with your client seller will get you fired.

 

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12 minutes ago, T R U said:

I agree, but it's still going to be pretty bad if they give up a 5+ war pitcher and in return they get replacement level players.

I would say getting 3 everyday starters for a pitcher that had huge question marks and was looking to get paid would be great value. 

One other note, I see a lot of Red Sox games and I would add that Crochet is also a big part of the Boston dugout.  When he is not in the rotation, he is constantly in the top steps of dugout cheering on his team. He is very popular w the Red Sox.

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1 hour ago, Chick Mercedes said:

I don’t know what you do for a living, but it’s not real estate. Taking that perspective into a meeting with your client seller will get you fired.

No, im not in real estate. I don't understand what real estate has to do with a baseball team?

The White Sox MO has never been to pay 1 great player, they spend average money on several players. The quickest way for this team to get better is to collect as many assets as possible and hope they become great players without the need to have to sign a FA to a $350M contract.

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7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Way too early to write off Meidroth as a future utility guy when he has two elite skills on top of being a strong or capable defender up the middle.  Teel is flashing star catcher potential (his xwOBA is only .005 below Cal Raleigh).  Montgomery has been very good this year (142 wRC+ across three levels) despite coming off injury.

I still believe we end up with three everyday guys out of this group and I could see that being a +4 win Catcher, a +3 win RF, and a +2 win infielder.  If that’s the case, it’s a huge win for the White Sox given the lack of positional talent at the time.  In a perfect world you keep the true impact player and fill your holes in other ways, but unfortunately Rick Hahn made that a near impossibility with his incompetence.

If the Sox get a 4 and 3 win player + an avg regular out of the deal, then I'd obviously agree. I think that scenario requires everything to go right/improve. I wouldn't say it's highly unlikely, but I think it's less likely than not. Time will tell.

If they get 5 or 6 WAR spread across 3 positions for a 6 WAR+ player, that's a pretty decent loss. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
Posted (edited)

Sox traded another generational talent for a utility infielder, a volatile reliever, a corner outfielder rocking a 144 ISO in AA, and a ++ Catcher.

Crochet lead the Red Sox to the playoffs (not a playoff team without his starts and record), and then just dominated one of the best offenses in the game to carry his team to a game 1 win.

Meanwhile, people are posting videos of Kyle Teel hitting homers for a 60 win baseball team and saying "thank you Crochet." 😂

In year one the Red Sox have undoubtedly won the trade. On to year two!

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sox traded another generational talent for a utility infielder, a volatile reliever, a corner outfielder rocking a 144 ISO in AA, and a ++ Catcher.

Crochet lead the Red Sox to the playoffs (not a playoff team without his starts and record), and then just dominated one of the best offenses in the game to carry his team to a game 1 win.

Meanwhile, people are posting videos of Kyle Teel hitting homers for a 60 win baseball team and saying "thank you Crochet." 😂

In year one the Red Sox have undoubtedly won the trade. On to year two!

Never should have traded Crochet. In some alternate universe, the Sox gave this beast his $$$ and had their ace to anchor the rotation for the next half decade. 

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1 hour ago, oldsox said:

The real losers in this trade are Teel and Montgomery,

Montgomery was never going to get an opportunity in that outfield...Teel maybe, eventually, but not over Narvaez in 2025.

Missing WS rings...?? Maybe Kyle but still think the Mariners or Dodgers win.

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