WestEddy Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 11 minutes ago, greg775 said: Funny how we consider age 26-29 a hitters prime now. Anything after 30, yawn. Anything under 26 and he's been rushed. I think we need a do over and get rid of all analytics. Can u imaging Pete Rose. nowadays? He'd have to lift and pull to make a roster. All those incredible oppo field hits and hustle on the basepaths would mean little to nothing. Yes, that is the answer, jettison actual knowledge for gut feelings. There's a lot of data that back up 28 being the prime of a baseball player's career, experience and athleticism crossing on separate paths. I'm certainly not saying "yawn" to the time after 30, or calling players under 26 rushed. In the conversation about whether Robert still has the ceiling of his 2023 season, or whether he's now the stats he's put up in the last two seasons, it's not crazy to notice that the upcoming season is his "prime", and if Robert has any upside left, it's in the next year or so he'll have youthful athleticism to pursue it. As far as the Pete Rose part, analytics loved him. I'm not sure how the actual events that get analyzed would "mean nothing". Maybe you should read up on analytics, and you'd learn that BA, OBP and base running are all factored into WAR and RC+. He might have even won more than one MVP and made more money had he paid closer attention to his own trend lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 1 hour ago, greg775 said: Funny how we consider age 26-29 a hitters prime now. Anything after 30, yawn. Anything under 26 and he's been rushed. I think we need a do over and get rid of all analytics. Can u imaging Pete Rose. nowadays? He'd have to lift and pull to make a roster. All those incredible oppo field hits and hustle on the basepaths would mean little to nothing. Yes, because there aren't any guys in the game hitting for high average with no power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 1 hour ago, WestEddy said: Yes, that is the answer, jettison actual knowledge for gut feelings. There's a lot of data that back up 28 being the prime of a baseball player's career, experience and athleticism crossing on separate paths. I'm certainly not saying "yawn" to the time after 30, or calling players under 26 rushed. In the conversation about whether Robert still has the ceiling of his 2023 season, or whether he's now the stats he's put up in the last two seasons, it's not crazy to notice that the upcoming season is his "prime", and if Robert has any upside left, it's in the next year or so he'll have youthful athleticism to pursue it. As far as the Pete Rose part, analytics loved him. I'm not sure how the actual events that get analyzed would "mean nothing". Maybe you should read up on analytics, and you'd learn that BA, OBP and base running are all factored into WAR and RC+. He might have even won more than one MVP and made more money had he paid closer attention to his own trend lines. 😂 know your audience 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 On 11/6/2025 at 2:10 PM, spiderman said: I don't think "winning as many games as possible as soon as possible" is their goal for next season. I think they would like to improve similarly to this season over last. Development is still their primary goal for next season. They probably don't want to take on money beyond next season either so will double-down on development. I do think they will spend money in free agency, but it will be more bargain shopping on 1 year deals. Well I can't speak on what the White Sox's goals are as they are strange and inscrutable to me. My goal is to see as many wins as I can. On 11/6/2025 at 2:28 PM, southsider2k5 said: I will be honest, the Sox are in a position where they need developmental wins more than the do in season wins. They have a roster to fill for their next playoff team, and they need to start taking the developmental pains of playing the young guys. Heck the Sox season turned around last season when they quit playing the clowns, and started playing the kids. If there were any kids to play in the outfield I'd probably look at it a little bit differently. Pre-arb outfielders in the organization playing at AAA or higher are basically: Brooks Baldwin, Derek Hill (~30 years old), Dru Baker, Zach Deloach, Caden Connor. Brooks is really the only one who has arguably earned a look in MLB. I guess Connor would be next up but he's got a lot to prove in AAA. If Braden Montgomery breaks out as we hope, I don't think LouBob will be holding him back. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 1 hour ago, WestEddy said: Yes, that is the answer, jettison actual knowledge for gut feelings. There's a lot of data that back up 28 being the prime of a baseball player's career, experience and athleticism crossing on separate paths. I'm certainly not saying "yawn" to the time after 30, or calling players under 26 rushed. In the conversation about whether Robert still has the ceiling of his 2023 season, or whether he's now the stats he's put up in the last two seasons, it's not crazy to notice that the upcoming season is his "prime", and if Robert has any upside left, it's in the next year or so he'll have youthful athleticism to pursue it. As far as the Pete Rose part, analytics loved him. I'm not sure how the actual events that get analyzed would "mean nothing". Maybe you should read up on analytics, and you'd learn that BA, OBP and base running are all factored into WAR and RC+. He might have even won more than one MVP and made more money had he paid closer attention to his own trend lines. TBH, data on player aging is SO SAD. The data suffers from some selection bias so nothing is truly set in stone, but generally points to players being in their physical prime the moment they reach the majors if that time is from age 19 to 24 (if later, they're already past it). And not many skills tend to improve into the late 20s. Safest argument would be that overall offensive peak is around 26 to 27. That said, for players who have obviously cleared the bar for MLB talent (like Luis Robert), there's a decent argument for expecting the peak to come a bit later, like age 29ish. Lots of interesting statistical arguments about this kind of thing. I've also seen some evidence for contact hitters having the worst aging process (i.e., guys without much power and who do not have a notable amount of walks). OBP-oriented guys age the best. And the early analysts of player aging got massively fooled by steroid abusers, so there was some common wisdom about player aging that was never going to survive the drug testing era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 42 minutes ago, Jake said: TBH, data on player aging is SO SAD. The data suffers from some selection bias so nothing is truly set in stone, but generally points to players being in their physical prime the moment they reach the majors if that time is from age 19 to 24 (if later, they're already past it). And not many skills tend to improve into the late 20s. Safest argument would be that overall offensive peak is around 26 to 27. That said, for players who have obviously cleared the bar for MLB talent (like Luis Robert), there's a decent argument for expecting the peak to come a bit later, like age 29ish. Lots of interesting statistical arguments about this kind of thing. I've also seen some evidence for contact hitters having the worst aging process (i.e., guys without much power and who do not have a notable amount of walks). OBP-oriented guys age the best. And the early analysts of player aging got massively fooled by steroid abusers, so there was some common wisdom about player aging that was never going to survive the drug testing era. Sounds exactly like Luis Arraez and Tim Anderson in that second paragraph...although TA struck out quite a bit near the end. Speed-based tool players too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydanks Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Is there not an overall free agency thread? IMO White Sox sign Trent Grisham, Cease and Arraez or the lesser equivalent of those three players. Am I missing a thread where that's discussed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 4 hours ago, bobbydanks said: Is there not an overall free agency thread? IMO White Sox sign Trent Grisham, Cease and Arraez or the lesser equivalent of those three players. Am I missing a thread where that's discussed? This looks to be the closest thing short of somebody starting an "offseason free agency" thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 4 hours ago, bobbydanks said: Is there not an overall free agency thread? IMO White Sox sign Trent Grisham, Cease and Arraez or the lesser equivalent of those three players. Am I missing a thread where that's discussed? Grisham and Cease would lose them draft picks. They could just go after Giolito and O'Hearn, and all they cost is money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 26 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Grisham and Cease would lose them draft picks. They could just go after Giolito and O'Hearn, and all they cost is money. Unfortunately, doesn’t sound like they will spend like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 15 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: Unfortunately, doesn’t sound like they will spend like that. I wasn't thinking they would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 7 hours ago, bobbydanks said: Is there not an overall free agency thread? IMO White Sox sign Trent Grisham, Cease and Arraez or the lesser equivalent of those three players. Am I missing a thread where that's discussed? No. Because it isn't happening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 19 hours ago, bobbydanks said: Is there not an overall free agency thread? IMO White Sox sign Trent Grisham, Cease and Arraez or the lesser equivalent of those three players. Am I missing a thread where that's discussed? That happened only in your own delusional mind, not real life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiderman Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 On 11/7/2025 at 4:09 PM, Jake said: Well I can't speak on what the White Sox's goals are as they are strange and inscrutable to me. My goal is to see as many wins as I can. If there were any kids to play in the outfield I'd probably look at it a little bit differently. Pre-arb outfielders in the organization playing at AAA or higher are basically: Brooks Baldwin, Derek Hill (~30 years old), Dru Baker, Zach Deloach, Caden Connor. Brooks is really the only one who has arguably earned a look in MLB. I guess Connor would be next up but he's got a lot to prove in AAA. If Braden Montgomery breaks out as we hope, I don't think LouBob will be holding him back. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody important. I would also love if the White Sox weren't on a 5 year rebuilding plan that had no guarantee of sustained success. It's hard to believe that, even if their plan works, it will only be for 2-3 seasons before it's time to pay players. Being realistic though, they are telling us that next year is about continued development. They aren't going to spend money unless it's on the cheap/1 year variety. If that's the stated objective, it's fair to expect improvement from development in terms of W/L, but you're also signing up for a 5 year rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 3 minutes ago, spiderman said: I would also love if the White Sox weren't on a 5 year rebuilding plan that had no guarantee of sustained success. It's hard to believe that, even if their plan works, it will only be for 2-3 seasons before it's time to pay players. Being realistic though, they are telling us that next year is about continued development. They aren't going to spend money unless it's on the cheap/1 year variety. If that's the stated objective, it's fair to expect improvement from development in terms of W/L, but you're also signing up for a 5 year rebuild. The hope is that by the end of 5 years they have their financial feet back under them again, and that baseball labor peace has returned. They have cut payroll, they have a TV deal in place, and now it is about rebuilding from the bottom up so that HOPEFULLY one day we are bringing guys in through the system, instead of mediocrity off of the street. Realistically, this was still a 102 loss team with no hope of contending, and the spectre of a game changing labor agreement on the horizon. while I expect them to spend a few bucks to plug a few holes and fill some innings, they really shouldn't be spending a lot until they guys they are signing could actually be on the next playoff team. If that standard isn't happening, they shouldn't be committing long term dollars to them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiderman Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 49 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: The hope is that by the end of 5 years they have their financial feet back under them again, and that baseball labor peace has returned. They have cut payroll, they have a TV deal in place, and now it is about rebuilding from the bottom up so that HOPEFULLY one day we are bringing guys in through the system, instead of mediocrity off of the street. Realistically, this was still a 102 loss team with no hope of contending, and the spectre of a game changing labor agreement on the horizon. while I expect them to spend a few bucks to plug a few holes and fill some innings, they really shouldn't be spending a lot until they guys they are signing could actually be on the next playoff team. If that standard isn't happening, they shouldn't be committing long term dollars to them. That's pretty much in-line with what we can reasonably hope for and what they are saying publicly for next season. It's unfortunate that it has gotten to this point where a 5 year rebuild is needed, but, being realistic, this is going to take a complete minor league rebuild to have any chance of short-term success. I'm probably not as optimistic on them spending significant money though without ownership change. Even with Reinsdorf, they will eventually spend more money, but we'll never be able to keep any young pitching or sign premier free agents so this latest rebuild will depend on young talent. Right now, they are doing well, but it's still another 2-3 good drafts away from being sustainable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 29 minutes ago, spiderman said: That's pretty much in-line with what we can reasonably hope for and what they are saying publicly for next season. It's unfortunate that it has gotten to this point where a 5 year rebuild is needed, but, being realistic, this is going to take a complete minor league rebuild to have any chance of short-term success. I'm probably not as optimistic on them spending significant money though without ownership change. Even with Reinsdorf, they will eventually spend more money, but we'll never be able to keep any young pitching or sign premier free agents so this latest rebuild will depend on young talent. Right now, they are doing well, but it's still another 2-3 good drafts away from being sustainable. With the complete failure of the minor league system under Chris Getz there really wasn't any choice as to what was going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiderman Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: With the complete failure of the minor league system under Chris Getz there really wasn't any choice as to what was going to happen. Not to mention, when you decide to act like you're the Pittsburgh Pirates, you don't have any choices other than a long rebuild with no guarantee of success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 3 minutes ago, spiderman said: Not to mention, when you decide to act like you're the Pittsburgh Pirates, you don't have any choices other than a long rebuild with no guarantee of success. Yeah, I mean when you lose 121 games, and at least 100 games in three straight years there isn't really much of a chance to spend over it. This isn't an 80 win team that is a couple of holes away. This is a team full for holes with a couple of answers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, I mean when you lose 121 games, and at least 100 games in three straight years there isn't really much of a chance to spend over it. This isn't an 80 win team that is a couple of holes away. This is a team full for holes with a couple of answers. The Royals did it. But they already had Witt Jr. as the long-term centerpiece in place, along with Perez and Pasquantino. Ragans as well, from the Chapman trade. 106 losses to competitive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoUEvenShift Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 On 11/6/2025 at 10:44 AM, WestEddy said: Sure. But it's his age 28 season coming up. His prime. It wouldn't take much, stay healthy OR mature a bit as a hitter, and he's worth his contract. If Teel, C. Monty, Vargas, Sosa, Brooks, Quero, Meidroth, Antonacci - a few of these guys get just a little better, maybe Robert doesn't press as much thinking he has to hit a 5-run HR every time up. He did just put up his highest walk rate, and lowest K-rate since 2022. When he's hot...very fun to watch. He, with the guys you mention, gives me a reason to watch and hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 6 minutes ago, poppysox said: When he's hot...very fun to watch. He, with the guys you mention, gives me a reason to watch and hope. It would be all kinds of cool for Robert to pick it back up this season, the Sox to clear .500, and then they still have him for another season after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 (edited) 25 minutes ago, WestEddy said: It would be all kinds of cool for Robert to pick it back up this season, the Sox to clear .500, and then they still have him for another season after that. When they might not even be playing? Do you think JR would take responsibility for that last option year under such uncertain conditions? Seems highly unlikely. Remember the Rays dumped a perfectly viable closer in Fairbanks because they didn't want his contract on the books at just $11 million. Edited November 19 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 36 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: When they might not even be playing? Do you think JR would take responsibility for that last option year under such uncertain conditions? Seems highly unlikely. Remember the Rays dumped a perfectly viable closer in Fairbanks because they didn't want his contract on the books at just $11 million. Players don't get paid during a lockout. What do the Rays have to do with this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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