PECOTA Win Projections For White Sox

[CWSGuy406]

So our run margin is going to increase by 104 runs, yet we are only going to win 5 more games?

 

You're looking at the wrong thing. Our pythag had us at 67 wins last seasons, so technically the 100+ runs is, in fact, a ten win improvement.

[BobDylan]

77-85 seems like the low end. The median is probably about 83 wins +/- 5.

 

They have the Rays in 4th in the East at 82-80. We are 9th in the AL.

 

 

They say we'll have a .261 BA, .332 OBP, .433 SLG, 780 Runs Scored, 822 Runs Allowed

 

I'll take that any day of the week.

[witesoxfan]

last year their projection was for... wait for it... 72-90

 

what was our record?

 

and they got lucky

[southsider2k5]

last year their projection was for... wait for it... 72-90

 

what was our record?

 

Didn't they project 72 wins and 4th place in 2005 as well?

[Reddy]

Didn't they project 72 wins and 4th place in 2005 as well?

 

oh i know, i recognize they're fallible. but i also think they know generally what they're talking about. and i dont see our intangibles working for us this year like in 05

[lvjeremylv]

My thoughts are as follows...

 

The subtraction of Garland probably costs us 5-7 games from last season. Whoever fills in is obviously not going to be as good, and while Garland wasn't the best Sox pitcher, he was rather consistent and logged a lot of innings.

 

The addition of Nick Swisher adds 3-5 wins. He's a HUGE upgrade from the platoon we had in LF/CF last season, and the pop he'll bring to our lineup is going to be very impactful.

 

Cabrera I think also adds 3-5 wins. His Gold Glove defense is going to probably save us a game or 2, and his offensive production compared to Uribe's is going to be a huge plus. Sure, he won't hit 20 bombs and drive in 70 like Juan did, but he also won't hit .234 with an OBP under .300.

 

Linebrink + Dotel (if healthy) = 5-7 games. As we all know, our bullpen last season was atrocious, and was the biggest problem we had. If these 2 are healthy and can create a sturdy bridge from the 7th to the 9th inning, that easily adds 5-7 games when compared to last season.

 

Plus guys like Quentin could possibly add a couple of games if he can be healthy and play on a regular basis.

 

I expect Danks to be better than last season. Maybe a 2 game increase. I think Mark and Javier will be about the same. There are some that think Javier's season was a fluke, but I think it's more a product of him finally having some stability in his career and getting comfortable. I expect him to put up fine numbers again in 2008.

 

Doing some quick math, that's 15-21 games up, and 5-7 down. For a grand total of 10-14 more wins in 2008 vs. 2007.

 

NOW, here's another thing to consider. Taking a look at what our other offensive players did in 2007, I think you can expect an improvement there. Paulie, AJ, and Jermaine (until the 2nd half) should all perform much better in 2008 than last season. They had off-years for sure. Thome can improve if he stays healthy, and another year of experience should help Josh out too. Having Toby as our back-up rather than the scrubs we had in 2007 will help, and if Richar is our 2B the extra year of experience should help him, too.

 

Those offensive facts, I feel, could (and should) add about 7 games maybe? Obviously these are mere SPECULATIONS on my part, just for the record. But I feel they have some merit.

 

Grand total = 17-21 more wins than 2007, which comes to 89-93 wins for 2008. I don't think that is completely far-fetched, although like I've said before, I don't see us hanging around with Contreras, Danks, and Floyd in our rotation. I hope I'm wrong, but based on what I've said above, I do see us being much more competitive in '08 than '07.

[RME JICO]

You're looking at the wrong thing. Our pythag had us at 67 wins last seasons, so technically the 100+ runs is, in fact, a ten win improvement.

So what are they saying in terms of Pythagorean this year?

 

I was saying that PECOTA had us at 72 wins last year and 77 this year. That is +5 wins with over a +100 run differential. +104 runs should equate to about 8-10 wins, not 5.

[CWSGuy406]

So what are they saying in terms of Pythagorean this year?

 

I was saying that PECOTA had us at 72 wins last year and 77 this year. That is +5 wins with over a +100 run differential. +104 runs should equate to about 8-10 wins, not 5.

 

I thought your 100+ run differential was comparing what we *actually* did in 2007 vs what PECOTA has in store for us in 2008. If I was mistaken and you meant a comparison between PECOTA 2007 vs PECOTA 2008, then I don't have an answer to that question.

[RME JICO]

I thought your 100+ run differential was comparing what we *actually* did in 2007 vs what PECOTA has in store for us in 2008. If I was mistaken and you meant a comparison between PECOTA 2007 vs PECOTA 2008, then I don't have an answer to that question.

Yeah, that was what I was referring to. I guess it was hard to determine since our actual win total matched their projection last year.

 

That is why I think a 5 win increase on their projection seems a little bit on the low side when they project a +104 run differential. Also, not having to face Johan should be 2 wins right there, and like Balta said, just replacing Gonzalez, Erstad, and Pods with league average players brings us a couple of wins. I think the loss of Garland will be the worse decline, but that should be offset by the bullpen.

[Balta1701]

I think the loss of Garland will be the worse decline, but that should be offset by the bullpen.

IMO, the Loss of Garland only hurts if the Jose Contreras of 2007 reappears. If he's that bad again, then being without Garland hurts because that leaves the 2 kids @ the back of the rotation with little support. A reasonable recovery by Jose would offset Garland's loss...as would some additional development by Danks and Floyd.

[bmags]

Yeah, that was what I was referring to. I guess it was hard to determine since our actual win total matched their projection last year.

 

That is why I think a 5 win increase on their projection seems a little bit on the low side when they project a +104 run differential. Also, not having to face Johan should be 2 wins right there, and like Balta said, just replacing Gonzalez, Erstad, and Pods with league average players brings us a couple of wins. I think the loss of Garland will be the worse decline, but that should be offset by the bullpen.

 

see that's what I'm struggling with/excited with in my expectations for the sox. In addition of just swisher I think would be an addition of 5 games. But it's who he was replacing. Last year some of our lineups were terrible even if dye and konerko weren't having poor seasons and thome being injured. Andy Gonzalez, Luis Terrero, Molina, Uribe, Pablo at 3rd. Cabrera and Swisher basically ensure that will never happen again. And I'm wondering how much improvement they really provide. I don't think we are a playoff team, but hell, this is baseball, I'm not gonna complain if we play over our heads this year and have a great season. Good things happen, bad things happen. I think we'll be at least fun to watch

[wsgdf_2]

Didn't they project 72 wins and 4th place in 2005 as well?

 

 

No, they projected 80 in 2005. See my post above which answers some of those questions.

 

Projections can only do so much... no system can project that Bobby Jenks will bebrought up from AA and that Cotts/Politte and Jenks will be untouchable out of the pen.

 

What they can do is give you an objective idea of where you stand in relation to the rest of the league. One injury to a team's key player, or one young pitcher having a crazy breakout season... turns everything on its head. PECOTA's not supposed to be a fortune teller.

 

 

[DBAHO]

Garland's a consistent 200 inning pitcher, that will give you good solid innings though.

 

That's why it's so important that;

 

1 - Jose Contreras is better. Doesn't have to be below 4 ERA better, but somewhere around a 4.50 ERA who can log 200 innings will do me.

 

2 - One of Danks or Floyd takes the next step, and can pitch at least 160 - 180 innings.

 

If that happens, then we won't feel the loss of Garland as badly. If it doesn't happen though, we'll feel the pinch big time.

 

That's why it all comes down to those 3 guys to me.

 

The offense will be better and so will the pen.

 

It's the back end of the rotation that will determine if the Sox can make a small leap or a big leap up in the standings this year.

[Gene Honda Civic]

factoring in some strength of schedule, they rounded the Sox up to 78 wins

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=762

[RME JICO]

factoring in some strength of schedule, they rounded the Sox up to 78 wins

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=762

Now are they basing their SoS on their own projections? If that is the case, the Sox have a fairly easy schedule, because a team with a losing record would have to play more teams worse then them to gain in this situation.

[Texsox]

After hundreds of projections, I don't have to even look to know the comments. If they project a great season, they are geniuses, if they project terrible, they are idiots.

 

You gotta play the games

Anything can happen, and usually does.

Being right more than 50% of the time is flat out great and makes you a nice living in Vegas.

[3E8]

So what are they saying in terms of Pythagorean this year?

 

I was saying that PECOTA had us at 72 wins last year and 77 this year. That is +5 wins with over a +100 run differential. +104 runs should equate to about 8-10 wins, not 5.

 

You must have the wrong 2007 PECOTA projection..

 

 

2007 PECOTA RS = 765

2007 PECOTA RA = 857

 

2007 PECOTA Pythag = [(765)^2]/[((765)^2)+((857)^2)] = .443

2007 PECOTA W-L = 72-90

 

-------------------------------

 

2008 PECOTA RS = 780

2008 PECOTA RA = 822

 

2008 PECOTA Pythag = [(780)^2]/[((780)^2)+((822)^2)] = .474

2008 PECOTA W-L = 77-85

[Soxfest]

F*** Pecota :fthecubs......... Play the games!

Edited February 19, 2008 by Soxfest

[almagest]

F*** Pecota :fthecubs......... Play the games!

 

Why are people so negative when it comes to the statistical analysis of baseball? Of COURSE they're still going to play the games. All the PECOTA win projection shows is what we already know -- the Sox are going to have to have quite a few players step up to compete in the AL this year.

[Jeremy]

Some thoughts:

 

- When Fields playing time is fixed, that will probably be worth close to a win.

 

- I'm not sure I even realized they had reliable Cuban translations but they're projecting Ramirez to be one of our better players next season.

 

- Egbert is projected as essentially our fourth best starter this season.

 

- PECOTA continues to love Vazquez.

 

Didn't PECOTA (and Will Carroll, for that matter) get lucky as s*** last year with their predicted W/L? They picked 72-90, sure, but as I recall, they said the Sox would have a good offense and like one of the 2-3 worst pitching staffs in the league; that wasn't completely the opposite, as the pitching was bad, but the Sox had like the worst offense in the AL last year.

 

If they were lucky at all, it was because the bullpen was so terrible; I don't recall a rosy forecast for our offense. Also, Will Carroll deals pretty strictly with health/injuries so he wouldn't be doing much with projecting a team's success, aside from projecting how many games a player's health will allow him to play.

 

All I keep hearing is how PECOTA was dead on last year?

Does anybody know what they predicted our record to be in 2005 and 2006?

Also what did they predict for team like the Rockies or Brewers last year?

 

If anyone had a system that was "dead on" like that, they probably wouldn't publish it. They'd keep it to themselves, go to Vegas, and make millions by doing things like betting a fortune on the Rockies making the playoffs. You can't see the future though and sports are extremely unpredictable. When you judge something like this the proper inquiry is never "Well, how often were they wrong?" it's how accurate were they relative to other projections.

Edited February 19, 2008 by Jeremy

[SkokieSox]

Well apparently, they were spot on with the White Sox last year. I don't quite remember what their projections for us were.

 

Not so much in 05 though...

[Controlled Chaos]

F*** Pecota :fthecubs......... Play the games!

 

I agree. You just can't predict what's going to happen between the lines. You can make an educated guess. I suggest we make a spreadsheet and post it somewhere so all of us can put in our projections for the record of each team. I'm banking the guesses from the members of this board will rival that of PECOTA's. Does anyone have access to the Win Projections for every team?

 

I believe it was Aaron Levinstein that said.. Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

[soxwon]

Preach. Yes, they over shot Buehrle, Garland, and Vazquez. For those three pitchers, the ERA prediction was off by an average of 0.86. So almost a full run.

 

Preach-Someone call for Da Reverand!!!!

Well ill preach-a to da choir of sox a fan-a.

Dis My Brotha's n Sista's Of da palehose, is Da Year we goes All Da Way to The Promised Land.

Another Series for us in 08. You must have faith-A and BELIEVE in KW !!!

Da Baseball Gods have declared to me, In Baseball Heaven

It is our year to Celebrate-A in October.

Believe-A My Children-Have Faith In Da Rev and Da Sox's.

 

[Jeremy]

I agree. You just can't predict what's going to happen between the lines. You can make an educated guess. I suggest we make a spreadsheet and post it somewhere so all of us can put in our projections for the record of each team. I'm banking the guesses from the members of this board will rival that of PECOTA's. Does anyone have access to the Win Projections for every team?

 

It's a good idea. I'm guessing PECOTA would come out in at least the 90th percentile, especially the most specificity you require in the predictions. If you just predict the order teams finish most fans can probably compete with PECOTA. If you predict each team's win total, I think PECOTA will do very well. If you project runs allowed and runs scored, PECOTA would probably run away with it.

[retro1983hat]

To be honest, I think everyone would have to have an amazing year for us to finish .500.