2012 Cuban signees thread Cespedes/Soler/Concepcion

[maggsmaggs]

Great. Another player that if sucks will be untradeable.

It's such a huge risk. As good as this guy is supposed to be, the Cuban Leagues aren't close to Major League Baseball. What happens if he is too raw in Spring Training? We gonna have a $10-million man in AAA.

[Princess Dye]

I too am curious about comparing Cespedes to stats of other guys who have played both here and in Cuba. Age aside, I just want to learn about what the level of competition is considered there, and if all these guys are playing in basically the same league or if there are several.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I believe Cepedes hit 33 HR last year, a Cuban record. I found this little bit about Viciedo's numbers....

 

"Viciedo made the Cuban national team at age 15. By 16, Viciedo hit .337 with 14 home runs."

[Eminor3rd]

It's such a huge risk. As good as this guy is supposed to be, the Cuban Leagues aren't close to Major League Baseball. What happens if he is too raw in Spring Training? We gonna have a $10-million man in AAA.

 

I don't mind the $10m AAV so much as the 5-7 years of it. I mean, how easily could this guy be a mirror image of Alex Rios? I bet Rios could rake the Cuban league, too. It would be one thing if the guy was a prospect, but the fact that he's so close to his prime just magnifies the risk.

 

I wonder if this Soler kid might not be a better target. He's younger but less accomplished, right?

[jenksycat]

Most players who suck are untradeable.

 

Shhh...don't tell that to greg or elrockin

[knightni]

Shhh...don't tell that to greg or elrockin

I hope that Peavy does well enough by July that he can be dealt for more prospects.

[bmags]

I obviously meant irremovable.

[iamshack]

These are good reasons why he won't get $50 million.

 

$32 million, tops.

[oldsox]

Why doesn't MLB get these foreign born players to go thru the draft, just like home grown players? It just blows my mind how inept the owners are when it comes to money. I think they all have printing presses hidden someplace.

[3E8]

Right, so if the numbers were similar, you'd expect Cespedes to be garbage because he'd be fully developed. I guess I hope they are way better, of course. I wonder if some metrics/skills tend to translate from Cuba to the MLB more, such as walk rate or K rate or something.

The pitching in Cuba has been said to be a similar level to high-A minor league ball. Cespedes has been putting up impressive batting lines since age 18. I don't know exactly what a league-average batting line is in Cuba, but a teenager in the US hitting the way Cespedes did against A-ball pitchers would be a top prospect on everyone's lists.

[Balta1701]

The pitching in Cuba has been said to be a similar level to high-A minor league ball. Cespedes has been putting up impressive batting lines since age 18. I don't know exactly what a league-average batting line is in Cuba, but a teenager in the US hitting the way Cespedes did against A-ball pitchers would be a top prospect on everyone's lists.

But the problem is, if they never advanced past a ball pitching for years, then suddenly gets dumped into the big leagues, he's never had to adapt to tht kind of quality before. Any bad habits he's picked up would never have been challenged.

 

For example we actually saw that with Contreras. In Cuba he could just strike people out constantly with the forkball. In the Us, he had to learn to feature the fastball first to get ahead of peolple before deploying te forkball...otherwise guys would lay off it and force him to throw a strike. And it took about 3 or 4 years and Cooper to get into a good habit and drop the bad habit...and he'd still fall back into it when he was struggling.

[3E8]

But the problem is, if they never advanced past a ball pitching for years, then suddenly gets dumped into the big leagues, he's never had to adapt to tht kind of quality before. Any bad habits he's picked up would never have been challenged.

 

For example we actually saw that with Contreras. In Cuba he could just strike people out constantly with the forkball. In the Us, he had to learn to feature the fastball first to get ahead of peolple before deploying te forkball...otherwise guys would lay off it and force him to throw a strike. And it took about 3 or 4 years and Cooper to get into a good habit and drop the bad habit...and he'd still fall back into it when he was struggling.

Or he could be like Alexei, who came here when he was Cespedes' age, and provide league-average offense right out the gate. Iguchi similarly succeeded without any adjustment period.

 

It's pretty obvious he has the tools. Our scouts have to determine whether or not he has the skill to make them useful at the big league level.

[southsider2k5]

How easy is it for these guys to defect? It seems like there are about 5 or more famous Cuban baseball players getting out every year. It reminds me of the Canadian Alcatraz on Family Guy.

 

It is very dangerous and risky. The national team sends armed "protectors" with them anywhere they go. Players are supposed to be escorted everywhere, especially if they are alone or in small groups. If the Cuban government even suspects you might try to defect they will kick you off of the traveling teams for sure. If you try to defect and fail you will be taken out of baseball, and your family will be blacklisted. If you succeed and leave your family behind, they still face retribution from the government.

 

It really isn't pretty.

[southsider2k5]

I hope that Peavy does well enough by July that he can be dealt for more prospects.

 

He would have to replicate his Cy Young season for that to happen.

[southsider2k5]

Why doesn't MLB get these foreign born players to go thru the draft, just like home grown players? It just blows my mind how inept the owners are when it comes to money. I think they all have printing presses hidden someplace.

 

They should make all players go through the draft. But that is just my opinion.

[Balta1701]

He would have to replicate his Cy Young season for that to happen.

Depends on how much of his remaining money the Sox are willing to eat...and if th e team is out of contention, trading him coudl still save a couple million dollars and bring back something useful long-term

[southsider2k5]

But the problem is, if they never advanced past a ball pitching for years, then suddenly gets dumped into the big leagues, he's never had to adapt to tht kind of quality before. Any bad habits he's picked up would never have been challenged.

 

For example we actually saw that with Contreras. In Cuba he could just strike people out constantly with the forkball. In the Us, he had to learn to feature the fastball first to get ahead of peolple before deploying te forkball...otherwise guys would lay off it and force him to throw a strike. And it took about 3 or 4 years and Cooper to get into a good habit and drop the bad habit...and he'd still fall back into it when he was struggling.

 

They do face much better competition on the international level. Contreras's name in particular got hot after he had an amazing exhibition game against the Baltimore Orioles years before he defected.

[southsider2k5]

Depends on how much of his remaining money the Sox are willing to eat...and if th e team is out of contention, trading him coudl still save a couple million dollars and bring back something useful long-term

 

With the Sox, operate with the assumption they aren't picking up salary. It has happened about twice in the last 10+ years.

[maggsmaggs]

Or he could be like Alexei, who came here when he was Cespedes' age, and provide league-average offense right out the gate. Iguchi similarly succeeded without any adjustment period.

 

It's pretty obvious he has the tools. Our scouts have to determine whether or not he has the skill to make them useful at the big league level.

But Alexei made just over $1 million in his first year and Iguchi made just over $2 million. Cespedes will be making probably over $10 million in his first year. Alexei and Iguchi were never All-Star-level players, just solid ones. And for what Cespedes will make, you can't afford for him to provide just league-average offense. And as we saw Alexei and Iguchi peaked in their first years, too.

Edited January 5, 2012 by maggsmaggs

[Balta1701]

With the Sox, operate with the assumption they aren't picking up salary. It has happened about twice in the last 10+ years.

You have to admit that sticking to a "The Sox aren't picking up any portion of Peavy's remaining salary" rule this season would be nuts.

 

If the Sox are below .500 at the break and Peavy has pitched well enough that another team will absorb $3-4 million of what he has left, maybe even just the buyout, and give something back that might prove org. filler, the Sox would be crazy to hold him. That's "Fire everything!" level stupidity.

[southsider2k5]

You have to admit that sticking to a "The Sox aren't picking up any portion of Peavy's remaining salary" rule this season would be nuts.

 

If the Sox are below .500 at the break and Peavy has pitched well enough that another team will absorb $3-4 million of what he has left, maybe even just the buyout, and give something back that might prove org. filler, the Sox would be crazy to hold him. That's "Fire everything!" level stupidity.

 

I'm looking at organizational history here, not a what if.

[Milkman delivers]

It is very dangerous and risky. The national team sends armed "protectors" with them anywhere they go. Players are supposed to be escorted everywhere, especially if they are alone or in small groups. If the Cuban government even suspects you might try to defect they will kick you off of the traveling teams for sure. If you try to defect and fail you will be taken out of baseball, and your family will be blacklisted. If you succeed and leave your family behind, they still face retribution from the government.

 

It really isn't pretty.

 

You sure this line of thought isn't incredibly outdated? I know it USED to be that way, but guys seem to defect with regularity now.

 

But Alexei made just over $1 million in his first year and Iguchi made just over $2 million. Cespedes will be making probably over $10 million in his first year. Alexei and Iguchi were never All-Star-level players, just solid ones. And for what Cespedes will make, you can't afford for him to provide just league-average offense. And as we saw Alexei and Iguchi peaked in their first years, too.

 

Alexei peaked in his first year?

[Balta1701]

You sure this line of thought isn't incredibly outdated? I know it USED to be that way, but guys seem to defect with regularity now.

 

 

 

Alexei peaked in his first year?

At least offensively, absolutely. .792 OPS, hasn't touched .750 since.

 

Defensively he didn't, because he was playing 2b and it took him a while to become a really good SS.

[Chicago White Sox]

You have to admit that sticking to a "The Sox aren't picking up any portion of Peavy's remaining salary" rule this season would be nuts.

 

If the Sox are below .500 at the break and Peavy has pitched well enough that another team will absorb $3-4 million of what he has left, maybe even just the buyout, and give something back that might prove org. filler, the Sox would be crazy to hold him. That's "Fire everything!" level stupidity.

I think you're undervaluing what Peavy would be worth if he pitches like a legit front of the rotation starter. Once you get to the trade deadline, the price to acquire players usually increases, especially for starting pitching. Look what it cost the Cardinals to acquire Jackson (mid rotation starter) and some relief arms. GMs are willing to pay a premium at the deadline if a player is believed to help them make and/or succeed in the playoffs. With the lack of quality SP, the price is always crazy. We wouldn't have to eat much (if any for a team like the Yankees) of Peavy's salary to get something of decent value for him IF he's pitching like a #1 or #2 starter.

[southsider2k5]

I think you're undervaluing what Peavy would be worth if he pitches like a legit front of the rotation starter. Once you get to the trade deadline, the price to acquire players usually increases, especially for starting pitching. Look what it cost the Cardinals to acquire Jackson (mid rotation starter) and some relief arms. GMs are willing to pay a premium at the deadline if a player is believed to help them make and/or succeed in the playoffs. With the lack of quality SP, the price is always crazy. We wouldn't have to eat much (if any for a team like the Yankees) of Peavy's salary to get something of decent value for him IF he's pitching like a #1 or #2 starter.

 

Peavy has a $17 million salary, plus a $4 million buyout due after this season. So in other words if you get to the middle of the season and want to trade, the team aquiring him will owe Peavy $11.5 million for just the last half of the season. That is a ton of money. He would have to be back to his Cy Young numbers, and have no injuries at all to have anyone even think about it without getting a bunch of cash, or a bad contract, included in the deal.