Possible Suitors for Gordon Beckham

[Dick Allen]

[

 

 

 

He would be on this team.

Quit being ridiculous.

No he would not. Not even close. Lindstrom was the closer to start, guess what, Lindstrom was on the team last year when Reed was closing.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

[

 

 

 

He would be on this team.

 

Quit being ridiculous.

No he would not. Not even close. Lindstrom was the closer to start, guess what, Lindstrom was on the team last year when Reed was closing.

 

You're probably right, he would have been the closer, but not deservedly so. He would not be the best reliever in the Sox bullpen right now. Either way, even if he's not a "middle" reliever, a reliever is a reliever, and Addison Reed isn't particularly special.

[harfman77]

Teams that are probably in the market for a 2B are SF and ATL. The Braves are supposedly ready to move on from Uggla and Scutaro may never get healthy enough to play this season. I dont see a solid enough market developing for him this summer as I think he has more value to the Sox than anyone else. The way the Sox have used Semien, they must view him as a UTL long term and Johnson won't be ready this season, so I think they probably hold Beckham and see if they can get a solid deal before his arbitration.

[2nd_city_saint787]

You are joking, right? I assume you are a Nate Jones lover. Nate is not very good IMO.

 

Using ERA to appeal to the back of the baseball card guys, and FIP to appeal to the saber guys.....(I know neither are the end all measuring stick but you get the point).

 

Addison Reed-4.18 ERA/4.62 FIP

 

Daniel Webb- 2.39/4.19

 

Jake Petricka- 1.57/4.06

 

Zach Putnam- 1.64/3.14

 

Then there's Lindstrom who sabermetrically is only slightly worse than Reed @ 3.32/4.68.

 

Saying Reed would be the 4th or 5th best reliever is not that crazy to say.

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Using ERA to appeal to the back of the baseball card guys, and FIP to appeal to the saber guys.....(I know neither are the end all measuring stick but you get the point).

 

Addison Reed-4.18 ERA/4.62 FIP

 

Daniel Webb- 2.39/4.19

 

Jake Petricka- 1.57/4.06

 

Zach Putnam- 1.64/3.14

 

Then there's Lindstrom who sabermetrically is only slightly worse than Reed @ 3.32/4.68.

 

Saying Reed would be the 4th or 5th best reliever is not that crazy to say.

 

Reed's had a weird start to the year and if we hadn't all seen him pitch the last few years it would be hard to explain. He has a 4.62 FIP, as you mentioned, but his xFIP (with a league average HR/FB%) is only 3.14. Basically xFIP is sayin ghe's been extremely unlucky on HRs -- however, we've seen Reed pitch and we know this version of him. It's the version that has a 96MPH heater and not much else. When that version comes on teams sit on the fastball and when he grooves one (he's not exactly Greg Maddux with his command) it gets hit hard.

 

Now, he also has a K/BB ratio over 3/1 and is striking out over a batter an inning, so his stuff is still there.

 

But his season is pretty much exactly why Chicago traded him -- he's a good reliever but far, far, far from a "dominant closer". He was about to get way overpaid for being "a closer" and the time was ripe to trade him. Now, Davidson might not pan out, but getting a top 100 prospect that has a 50/50 chance to develop into a solid everday 3B is way more valuable than a 1-2 WAR reliever, ESPECIALLY on a team that has Don Cooper as the pitching coach.

 

The Sox turn turds into gold quite often with Cooper, but they don't have much success with infield prospects. Getting a guy that was near MLB ready was a no brainer for Reed.

 

tl:dr Reed is only a good reliever, not elite, Sox produce those guys on the reg and he was about to get way overpaid, getting Davidson was a fine return, even if it doesn't pan out the thought process was good.

[oldsox]

Using ERA to appeal to the back of the baseball card guys, and FIP to appeal to the saber guys.....(I know neither are the end all measuring stick but you get the point).

 

Addison Reed-4.18 ERA/4.62 FIP

 

Daniel Webb- 2.39/4.19

 

Jake Petricka- 1.57/4.06

 

Zach Putnam- 1.64/3.14

 

Then there's Lindstrom who sabermetrically is only slightly worse than Reed @ 3.32/4.68.

 

Saying Reed would be the 4th or 5th best reliever is not that crazy to say.

In your analysis, give Reed a little credit for pitching in tight situations where everyone is bearing down, as opposed to coming in on mop up duty. I'll do my best to re-visit this in a couple of months when we all have add'l stats to work with.

[Eminor3rd]

Projections are mostly based on track record, and similar players' track record.

 

Track record + aging curve + any recent changes to mechanics + any recent changes to physiology + any potential future changes to mechanics + any potential future changes to physiology + current and future health risks.

 

EDIT: If it was only or even mostly track record, prospects wouldn't be worth more in the trade market than post-prime veterans with long track records. The position Marty took that you're now resurrecting, simply for the sake of arguing with me, is an indefensible position.

Edited May 27, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[harfman77]

One of the Braves top prospects, Tommy La Stella, is doing pretty well in AAA. He would seem to be the heir to Uggla's position.

 

San Fransisco could definitely be an option. Baltimore could turn to trade with the way Schoop is playing or they could stay internal with Jemile Weeks/Ryan Flaherty/Steven Lombardozzi. The Blue Jays have a combination of 2013 Charlotte Knight standout Steve Tolleson and struggling 3B Brett Lawrie. When they play Lawrie at 2B they have to start defensive butcher Juan Fransisco at 3B.

 

The problem with the BJ's is that while Francisco is not defensively proficient, they need to keep his bat in the lineup and have nowhere else to play him with 1B and DH occupied. I think the Orioles are probably loath to trade for a 2B to block Shoop, while he has struggled as a rookie, they have some internal options to bide time if they think he needs a reset in AAA.

 

This is the issue I see, there are not enough contenders with a need at the position to drive the price up to a point where it makes sense to make a deal.

[Dick Allen]

Track record + aging curve + any recent changes to mechanics + any recent changes to physiology + any potential future changes to mechanics + any potential future changes to physiology + current and future health risks.

And everything other than track record you mentioned is based on some form of track record.

[Eminor3rd]

And everything other than track record you mentioned is based on some form of track record.

 

Which is abstractly not even CLOSE to the same thing, or even related to the argument Marty made then that you are now resurrecting.

[caulfield12]

Using ERA to appeal to the back of the baseball card guys, and FIP to appeal to the saber guys.....(I know neither are the end all measuring stick but you get the point).

 

Addison Reed-4.18 ERA/4.62 FIP

 

Daniel Webb- 2.39/4.19

 

Jake Petricka- 1.57/4.06

 

Zach Putnam- 1.64/3.14

 

Then there's Lindstrom who sabermetrically is only slightly worse than Reed @ 3.32/4.68.

 

Saying Reed would be the 4th or 5th best reliever is not that crazy to say.

 

You would have been better off comparing Addison Reed to the rest of MLB closers.

 

Comparing his numbers to White Sox middle relievers...you might as well compare Reed to Belisario's numbers this week as a closer, right?

 

FWIW, we can legitimately make the argument the Sox would be .500 or 2 games over with Reed, but they're not truly contending unless the wheels completely fall off the DET pitching staff.

Edited May 27, 2014 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

This thread has it all.

 

Creepy Avatar Guy creating argument after argument to troll.

 

Caufield going off on a tangent completely unrelated the thread.

 

And Marty.

 

Awesome work guys. You make the site a joy to read.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Reed's had a weird start to the year and if we hadn't all seen him pitch the last few years it would be hard to explain. He has a 4.62 FIP, as you mentioned, but his xFIP (with a league average HR/FB%) is only 3.14. Basically xFIP is sayin ghe's been extremely unlucky on HRs -- however, we've seen Reed pitch and we know this version of him. It's the version that has a 96MPH heater and not much else. When that version comes on teams sit on the fastball and when he grooves one (he's not exactly Greg Maddux with his command) it gets hit hard.

 

Now, he also has a K/BB ratio over 3/1 and is striking out over a batter an inning, so his stuff is still there.

 

But his season is pretty much exactly why Chicago traded him -- he's a good reliever but far, far, far from a "dominant closer". He was about to get way overpaid for being "a closer" and the time was ripe to trade him. Now, Davidson might not pan out, but getting a top 100 prospect that has a 50/50 chance to develop into a solid everday 3B is way more valuable than a 1-2 WAR reliever, ESPECIALLY on a team that has Don Cooper as the pitching coach.

 

The Sox turn turds into gold quite often with Cooper, but they don't have much success with infield prospects. Getting a guy that was near MLB ready was a no brainer for Reed.

 

tl:dr Reed is only a good reliever, not elite, Sox produce those guys on the reg and he was about to get way overpaid, getting Davidson was a fine return, even if it doesn't pan out the thought process was good.

 

This is a great post by the way.

[Dick Allen]

This thread has it all.

 

Creepy Avatar Guy creating argument after argument to troll.

 

Caufield going off on a tangent completely unrelated the thread.

 

And Marty.

 

Awesome work guys. You make the site a joy to read.

Another solid post.

[greg775]

I disagree with your opinion, but Jones has been hurt this year anyways, so I'm not sure why you mentioned him.

 

 

 

He would be on this team.

What did Reed do to you to say he'd be the fifth best righty reliever on the team? That's just crazy talk. Our bullpen is horrendous and Reed was a good to adequate closer. I'd give Reed a solid B as our closer. This year's closers deserve a big fat D.

[cabiness42]

FWIW, we can legitimately make the argument the Sox would be .500 or 2 games over with Reed, but they're not truly contending unless the wheels completely fall off the DET pitching staff.

 

Detroit should never have been the measuring stick even from the start of the season. This team, at best, is competing for the second Wild Card. As enjoyable as it is to see the Tigers lose, we should be hoping they win every time they play the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Royals and Indians.

[Dick Allen]

Detroit should never have been the measuring stick even from the start of the season. This team, at best, is competing for the second Wild Card. As enjoyable as it is to see the Tigers lose, we should be hoping they win every time they play the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Royals and Indians.

The only thing is if Verlander and Scherzer continue to struggle, you never know. Just remember the 2006 White Sox. How could a Tiger fan think they have a chance coming into that season, and the Sox started on fire, but the pitching faded. Perhaps making the postseason year after year after year is starting to catch up to their pitching staff. It was blamed for the Sox staff falling about back then. It doesn't seem very likey, I will give you that, but there could be some real problems with that team. Now watch them go win 11 in a row.

[witesoxfan]

FWIW, we can legitimately make the argument the Sox would be .500 or 2 games over with Reed, but they're not truly contending unless the wheels completely fall off the DET pitching staff.

 

Then make it.

 

---

 

You can't because it's an absolutely ridiculous argument.

 

What did Reed do to you to say he'd be the fifth best righty reliever on the team? That's just crazy talk. Our bullpen is horrendous and Reed was a good to adequate closer. I'd give Reed a solid B as our closer. This year's closers deserve a big fat D.

 

He did nothing to me other than pitch like a middle reliever. I like/liked Reed. I honestly think, given his repertoire, he'd be better served in the rotation instead of the bullpen. The Sox bullpen has not been horrendous - have you watched games or seen the numbers the bullpen has put up, or are you still basing this off the first two weeks of the year?

 

Greg, I'm pretty sure that if Adam Dunn puts up .275/.400/.500 next year for Texas or Houston or someone, you'd say that you gave him a B for his time with the Sox and whoever is currently playing for the White Sox would get a D.

[cabiness42]

The only thing is if Verlander and Scherzer continue to struggle, you never know. Just remember the 2006 White Sox. How could a Tiger fan think they have a chance coming into that season, and the Sox started on fire, but the pitching faded. Perhaps making the postseason year after year after year is starting to catch up to their pitching staff. It was blamed for the Sox staff falling about back then. It doesn't seem very likey, I will give you that, but there could be some real problems with that team. Now watch them go win 11 in a row.

 

Yes, anything is possible, but the odds dictate the the Sox should want Detroit to beat any and all potential WC teams.

[caulfield12]

Then make it.

 

---

 

You can't because it's an absolutely ridiculous argument.

 

Detroit has a flawed bullpen (Nathan isn't what he once was, and how much can you trust Joba Chamberlain or Al-Al?), and they've become a bit complacent with nobody to challenge them within the division the last couple of seasons (KC is unproven and on the ropes offensively and now are dealing with Ventura's ailment, Cleveland seems more like a "one year wonder" at the moment).

 

Porcello and Victor Martinez have never been THIS good with the Tigers, especially Porcello.

 

One of their other starters is an inexperienced rookie in Ray. This is Smyly's first full year in the rotation, and he'll wear down eventually from pitching in relief the last two seasons.

 

Verlander has gotten absolutely pounded his last three starts. Scherzer has been merely human.

 

 

Scherzer lasted six innings, allowing five runs on eight hits. He walked two and struck out four.

 

Scherzer, who was saved from his second loss when Hunter hit a solo home run in the seventh to tie the game, has allowed 12 runs on 20 hits over his past two games, a span of 13 innings.

 

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner allowed 12 runs combined through his first nine starts (59 innings)

 

LAST FOUR=25 IP, 28 H, 15 ER, 12 BB, 22 K's, 1.6 WHIP, 5.40 ERA

 

 

 

Rajai Davis has been overachieving, too. They're getting little to nothing out of SS offensively with Romine and Worth. If they wouldn't have been able to pull off the Kinsler for Fielder trade, they would be in a world of hurt, IMO. Plus, you have the Evan Reed situation.

 

So yeah, they're still the favorites...but not by as much as one would have assumed a week ago when they were 27-13 and running away with things.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Then make it.

 

---

 

You can't because it's an absolutely ridiculous argument.

 

 

 

He did nothing to me other than pitch like a middle reliever. I like/liked Reed. I honestly think, given his repertoire, he'd be better served in the rotation instead of the bullpen. The Sox bullpen has not been horrendous - have you watched games or seen the numbers the bullpen has put up, or are you still basing this off the first two weeks of the year?

 

Greg, I'm pretty sure that if Adam Dunn puts up .275/.400/.500 next year for Texas or Houston or someone, you'd say that you gave him a B for his time with the Sox and whoever is currently playing for the White Sox would get a D.

 

With only two pitches?

 

By that argument, Petricka should be re-converted into a starter again. Or Webb.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Then make it.

 

---

 

You can't because it's an absolutely ridiculous argument.

 

 

 

He did nothing to me other than pitch like a middle reliever. I like/liked Reed. I honestly think, given his repertoire, he'd be better served in the rotation instead of the bullpen. The Sox bullpen has not been horrendous - have you watched games or seen the numbers the bullpen has put up, or are you still basing this off the first two weeks of the year?

 

Greg, I'm pretty sure that if Adam Dunn puts up .275/.400/.500 next year for Texas or Houston or someone, you'd say that you gave him a B for his time with the Sox and whoever is currently playing for the White Sox would get a D.

Addison Reed put up a 1.7 WAR last year. Seems like at his salary, he is a bargain. His k-rate is climbing. His walk rate is decreasing. If he would be the 5th best pitcher in the 2014 White Sox pen, this team should make the playoffs.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[cabiness42]

Addison Reed put up a 1.7 WAR last year. Seems like at his salary, he is a bargain. His k-rate is climbing. His walk rate is decreasing. If he would be the 5th best pitcher in the 2014 White Sox pen, this team should make the playoffs.

 

Any player who can put up a 1.7 WAR while pre-arb is a bargain. The problem is that a 1.7 WAR nets a closer a much higher arb salary than a starting pitcher or position player providing the same WAR, and Reed is going to be in that boat at the end of this season.

[witesoxfan]

With only two pitches?

 

By that argument, Petricka should be re-converted into a starter again. Or Webb.

 

He has 3. Fastball, slider, change. He doesn't use the changeup as much, but he should feature it more. Probably something Arizona is doing with him.

 

Addison Reed put up a 1.7 WAR last year. Seems like at his salary, he is a bargain. His k-rate is climbing. His walk rate is decreasing. If he would be the 5th best pitcher in the 2014 White Sox pen, this team should make the playoffs.

 

More trolling. I never said anything about last year. He was fairly solid last year as a closer, but had a tendency to give up big homers (WAR is not the best measure for relievers, but it's not the worst either, so I will let this pass).

 

However, he's been pretty mediocre this year. There's certainly room to improve, but that doesn't change what's happened. Thus, he would be the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the Sox bullpen right now. If you would like, I can give you any number of measures to indicate this.

[southsider2k5]

---

 

You can't because it's an absolutely ridiculous argument.

 

Detroit has a flawed bullpen (Nathan isn't what he once was, and how much can you trust Joba Chamberlain or Al-Al?), and they've become a bit complacent with nobody to challenge them within the division the last couple of seasons (KC is unproven and on the ropes offensively and now are dealing with Ventura's ailment, Cleveland seems more like a "one year wonder" at the moment).

 

Porcello and Victor Martinez have never been THIS good with the Tigers, especially Porcello.

 

One of their other starters is an inexperienced rookie in Ray. This is Smyly's first full year in the rotation, and he'll wear down eventually from pitching in relief the last two seasons.

 

Verlander has gotten absolutely pounded his last three starts. Scherzer has been merely human.

 

 

Scherzer lasted six innings, allowing five runs on eight hits. He walked two and struck out four.

 

Scherzer, who was saved from his second loss when Hunter hit a solo home run in the seventh to tie the game, has allowed 12 runs on 20 hits over his past two games, a span of 13 innings.

 

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner allowed 12 runs combined through his first nine starts (59 innings)

 

LAST FOUR=25 IP, 28 H, 15 ER, 12 BB, 22 K's, 1.6 WHIP, 5.40 ERA

 

 

 

Rajai Davis has been overachieving, too. They're getting little to nothing out of SS offensively with Romine and Worth. If they wouldn't have been able to pull off the Kinsler for Fielder trade, they would be in a world of hurt, IMO. Plus, you have the Evan Reed situation.

 

So yeah, they're still the favorites...but not by as much as one would have assumed a week ago when they were 27-13 and running away with things.

 

If you can poke that many holes in the Tigers, you can post for pages about the holes in the White Sox right now.