Cespedes has become Mike Trout on here

 

Cespedes would be nice but he's got a low OBP %, will get paid big money & most fans are probably expecting close to last year's production which is simply not realistic.

 

Would he be a good get? Absolutely, but the drop off from him to Fowler isn't as large as some think.

Who the heck are we actually competing with for Fowler?

 

The Cubs? Cardinals? Orioles? Angels?

 

Would the Orioles really give up a draft pick for him? Does he really make enough of a difference to make the Angels a sure-fire pennant contender from their current status?

 

Every columnist coming out and suggesting Garcia as a rebound candidate didn't have the benefit or misfortune to suffer through the last 4 months of the season watching him flailing away helplessly.

 

Potentially no competition is why he makes sense for the Sox...a great bargain

Im not happy giving up draft pick to the cubs.

IT DOESN'T GO TO THE CUBS!!!!

If that's the ultimate lesson of Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche and John Danks, great.

 

Then develop one of the top 5-10 farm systems in the game (that consistently produces 2-3 contributors per season) and spend that money in Latin America/international free agents under 30.

 

Being timid now after being so aggressive going after Lawrie and Frazier doesn't make any sense.

 

 

The White Sox, Padres and Red Sox weren't wrong about spending last year. They simply picked the wrong players.

 

 

This whole thing is like the White Sox are promoting the idea of Natalie Portman in Closer or Jessica Alba in Sin City and then we dutifully buy our tickets and Bartolo Colon comes out in a thong instead.

 

As far as I'm concerned out of all the OF'ers on the market Cespedes is the least likely to crap out than any of them and as of this moment he won't get the years or the AAV he was seeking. The Sox seem to want even less years and less AAV. I can see room for some compromise but if they don't budge we probably end up with Fowler which would be a huge disappointment . Abreu , Cespedes, possible contention vs. Fowler and rely on Abreu once again to do the heavy lifting and pray Frazier adjusts well to the AL .

Edited January 15, 201610 yr by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

Cespedes would be nice but he's got a low OBP %, will get paid big money & most fans are probably expecting close to last year's production which is simply not realistic.

 

Would he be a good get? Absolutely, but the drop off from him to Fowler isn't as large as some think.

 

Can they put Fowler in the middle of the lineup and expect 100 RBI's from him ? If the answer to that is no then the drop off from Cespedes to him is huge not only in run production but probably in season tickets, attendance and hopes to be in contention .

What does giving up a pick & the Cubs gaining a comp have anything to do with the Sox improving their team?

 

I think fowler due for regress with us.

Edited January 15, 201610 yr by peavy44

Can they put Fowler in the middle of the lineup and expect 100 RBI's from him ? If the answer to that is no then the drop off from Cespedes to him is huge not only in run production but probably in season tickets, attendance and hopes to be in contention .

 

They play two separate roles. I'm not sure why that is so hard for fans to understand. Is Cespedes the better player? Sure. Most are fooled by his career year, because outside of that, he's averaged 2.8 WAR per year, while Fowler has averaged 2.1 WAR over his career playing in full years.

 

Not sure Cespedes warrants up to $10M more per season.

I think fowler due for regress with us.

 

Based on?

Here's the thing.

 

The Cubs just paid Zobrist for four years and he's MUCH older than Cespedes and could be Upton's father (joking).

 

Was it an overpay, maybe...but if you approach FA negotiations with a dogged determination never to go past 3 years you might as well not even bother.

 

Just tell all the agents...well, if your client can't find 4-6 years anywhere, ring up the White Sox.

 

It's the kind of rigid decision Wal-Mart would make about unions or health care benefits. Last time I checked, the White Sox weren't a monopoly or even close to an oligopoly in the AL.

The Cubs and Sox have such different situations now. Cubs know they will be drawing a ton of fans the next few years. One bad year for Sox and it is possibly fire sale time.

But with an AAV of $18M or less? We're talking about a guy with a 3 WAR floor if he's not forced to play CF. I get his 2015 was an outlier, but the hypothetical Baltimore deal isn't paying him to be a 6+ WAR player, it's paying him to be a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. Honestly, at that price who cares about a 5th year.

I still worry about long term payroll flexibility. The 5th year would just hamper the team too much to maintain longterm competiveness with sale and company hittng FA at that time. I would rather spend the money on homegrown pitching.

Here's the thing.

 

The Cubs just paid Zobrist for four years and he's MUCH older than Cespedes and could be Upton's father (joking).

 

Was it an overpay, maybe...but if you approach FA negotiations with a dogged determination never to go past 3 years you might as well not even bother.

 

Just tell all the agents...well, if your client can't find 4-6 years anywhere, ring up the White Sox.

 

It's the kind of rigid decision Wal-Mart would make about unions or health care benefits. Last time I checked, the White Sox weren't a monopoly or even close to an oligopoly in the AL.

Then why in the other thread did you say never go more than 3 years?

I still worry about long term payroll flexibility. The 5th year would just hamper the team too much to maintain longterm competiveness with sale and company hittng FA at that time. I would rather spend the money on homegrown pitching.

 

Last thing you want is money tied up in Cespedes in three years when there are so many good players available via free agency

Then why in the other thread did you say never go more than 3 years?

 

Also it sure looks like the Cubs overpaid for Zobrist and Heyward now

Also it sure looks like the Cubs overpaid for Zobrist and Heyward now

Just read what caulfield wrote in the thread I bumped about Moore copying kW only doing it smartly. Just read #3, and read his comments here. They are the exact opposite.

Edited January 15, 201610 yr by Dick Allen

At the end of the day, they got the guys they wanted, and conceivably Theo built the team he wanted.

 

If I'm a Cubs fan, I can't be too mad at their contracts.

if im a cubs fan im buying a ton of merchandise and tickets right now

 

they are so excited and for good reason

At the end of the day, they got the guys they wanted, and conceivably Theo built the team he wanted.

 

If I'm a Cubs fan, I can't be too mad at their contracts.

 

Yeah they got the guys they wanted and obviously have ridiculous flexibility due to their youth. It's just not wise IMO to compare those deals to what everyone else is getting.

if im a cubs fan im buying a ton of merchandise and tickets right now

 

they are so excited and for good reason

You know you are a Sox fan (me) when the Cubs make all these moves and I still have ZERO desire to watch any of their games cept the games vs. the Sox. And I actually look forward to watching our Sox games still.

To be fair, the Cubs are going to be f***ed in a few years when their youngsters are all demanding raises and 36 year old Lester is falling apart while Arrieta is on the DL because he blew out his arm.

 

 

One issue for #Orioles if they go with Cespedes over Davis: Team’s lineup is awfully right-handed. Cespedes only would add to imbalance.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/687838527896313858

 

Also, FWIW: Cespedes career .723 OPS vs. AL East, compared with .817 vs. AL Central and .837 vs. AL West. Samples vs. NL divisions smaller..

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/687838564097339392

They play two separate roles. I'm not sure why that is so hard for fans to understand. Is Cespedes the better player? Sure. Most are fooled by his career year, because outside of that, he's averaged 2.8 WAR per year, while Fowler has averaged 2.1 WAR over his career playing in full years.

 

Not sure Cespedes warrants up to $10M more per season.

 

I understand perfectly . The Sox need Cespedes more than they need Fowler . Would it be good to have Fowler and his OBP ? Of course . I'd just like it a lot more if there was someone to drive him in . Fowler with the cost of a draft pick and Cespedes no draft pick and one of only 2 players ( Abreu being the other) to drive in 100 runs 2 straight years. Not fooled by a career year one iota. Not only will he produce way more runs but most likely wil save more runs from scoring also while adding a boost to the Sox in just about every way imaginable when it comes to excitement and being competitive.

 

Does Fowler really seem like that guy to put the Sox over the top and into contention after getting Frazier ? Right now I'd like to know there's a guy besides Abreu who can be counted on in the middle of the lineup.

I will say this, if the Orioles land Cespedes for a contract in that range, then I'm going to f***ing enraged.

[/quote

 

Yea, when I heard 5 yrs $75-90 my first thought was couldn't the Sox do that??

 

I understand perfectly . The Sox need Cespedes more than they need Fowler . Would it be good to have Fowler and his OBP ? Of course . I'd just like it a lot more if there was someone to drive him in . Fowler with the cost of a draft pick and Cespedes no draft pick and one of only 2 players ( Abreu being the other) to drive in 100 runs 2 straight years. Not fooled by a career year one iota. Not only will he produce way more runs but most likely wil save more runs from scoring also while adding a boost to the Sox in just about every way imaginable when it comes to excitement and being competitive.

 

Does Fowler really seem like that guy to put the Sox over the top and into contention after getting Frazier ? Right now I'd like to know there's a guy besides Abreu who can be counted on in the middle of the lineup.

Yes to this

They supposedly had it for Shark, something like $90-100 million.

 

They bid at least $120-125 million on Tanaka.

 

Technically, Upton fits the mold of being closer to his prime age-wise than Cespedes, but it's a clear case of need and fit coming together if ever there was...

 

 

That's not overpaying him at the originally expected 6 years and $150 million, it's the 4-5 years (depending on opt-outs/buy-outs/options) and $75-105 million range where the benefits start to outweigh the costs.

 

Basically, the same contract demands of Alex Gordon originally, but for a player who was 100% healthy last year and put up MVP numbers.

 

Haven't we seen on this board about JR saying the money would be there for the right player? Is Fowler that right player???

 

Sounds like it's 5/90

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles...0114-story.html