2019 MLB draft thread

[OneDog847]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I already pulled your list. 

What is the 4 year college hitter list look like? Really good? Does it seem like this is a stupid way to judge whether to draft a player yet?

We are arguing in circles. My main point is that the Sox current braintrust is terrible at evaluating and developing amateur talent. It is time for new blood. This rebuild is gonna fail if they don't start hitting big on some of these draft picks. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

None of those guys have played at all this year.  Sox just waiting for the rookie league to start to assign them, I would assume? 

Abbot. The fucking water polo player, right? What a terrible pick.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

If you want to find undervalued high school kids - take northern kids who have performed well on showcases but have limited reps.

Mike trout was very clearly the best high school player in the country but because he was from Jersey, he got docked. This happens frequently with northern kids because they have half as many reps as the southern kids - this also means they still have much more room to grow.

[Lillian]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If you want to find undervalued high school kids - take northern kids who have performed well on showcases but have limited reps.

Mike trout was very clearly the best high school player in the country but because he was from Jersey, he got docked. This happens frequently with northern kids because they have half as many reps as the southern kids - this also means they still have much more room to grow.

You have identified a very plausible "market inefficiency". I wonder how many front offices take that factor, into consideration.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Lillian

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

For some reason, it really bothers me that everyone blames player outcomes on coaching and the organization. Being great at player development may mean you turn a utility talent into an everyday player... or an above average player into a star. You get the most of the potential but you dont make the potential. You're not turning a minor leaguer into a ++ big league player. Talent dominates this world. 

Our insistence on trying to teach a difficult task (plate discipline) doesn't help either but these guys arent failing because the Sox are sabotaging them. It's likely they're failing because they didn't have the talent to begin with. Poor drafting is much more likely than poor development. 

It's not as if heinze was some development guru with Thomas, Ventura, Fernandez and etc. Those guys were just stupid talented and great picks. 

With all the external tools available away from the team at a players disposal these days, theres honestly no excuse for development.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, Lillian said:

You have identified a very plausible "market inefficiency". I wonder how many front offices take that factor, into consideration.

I participated in a lot of showcases as a kid. Area code games my senior year were in Minneapolis, and for some reason beyond my understanding there were a lot more scouts at Perfect Game showcase than at the area code games. I am guessing because northern kids probably are more volatile because they have so fewer reps. 

But, trout did open some eyes. It's why I'm so excited about Bryce Bush even with his struggle this year. Bryce Bush, being from Michigan, has HALF as many reps as a Cali or Florida kid... to be competing against those kids already shows a maturity level. He might never figure it out but he's much more likely to figure it out than someone who hasnt adjusted despite having twice as many reps. 

There's a ton of baseball talent in the north east and midwest - you just dont get to see it as often. 

Kelenic is actually a great example of how the game has evolved but you could argue it still hasnt corrected enough and that he was UNDERRATED because he was from Wisconsin. The game has definitely evolved enough that you'll never see another Mike trout situation again.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[SoxBlanco]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

For some reason, it really bothers me that everyone blames player outcomes on coaching and the organization. Being great at player development may mean you turn a utility talent into an everyday player... or an above average player into a star. You get the most of the potential but you dont make the potential. You're not turning a minor leaguer into a ++ big league player. Talent dominates this world. 

Our insistence on trying to teach a difficult task (plate discipline) doesn't help either but these guys arent failing because the Sox are sabotaging them. It's likely they're failing because they didn't have the talent to begin with. Poor drafting is much more likely than poor development. 

It's not as if heinze was some development guru with Thomas, Ventura, Fernandez and etc. Those guys were just stupid talented and great picks. 

With all the external tools available away from the team at a players disposal these days, theres honestly no excuse for development.

This is an excellent post. 

[Lillian]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I participated in a lot of showcases as a kid. Area code games my senior year were in Minneapolis, and for some reason beyond my understanding there were a lot more scouts at Perfect Game showcase than at the area code games. I am guessing because northern kids probably are more volatile because they have so fewer reps. 

But, trout did open some eyes. It's why I'm so excited about Bryce Bush even with his struggle this year. Bryce Bush, being from Michigan, has HALF as many reps as a Cali or Florida kid... to be competing against those kids already shows a maturity level. He might never figure it out but he's much more likely to figure it out than someone who hasnt adjusted despite having twice as many reps. 

There's a ton of baseball talent in the north east and midwest - you just dont get to see it as often. 

Kelenic is actually a great example of how the game has evolved but you could argue it still hasnt corrected enough and that he was UNDERRATED because he was from Wisconsin. The game has definitely evolved enough that you'll never see another Mike trout situation again.

Who, in this year's Draft, would be a good "sleeper" candidate, based upon this market inefficiency?

[bubba phillips]

57 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Again, please name one high school player taken in the first 2 rounds by the KW/Hahn regime that has been developed into a productive major leaguer. 

 

I can't think of one.  But that fact alone should not dismiss drafting a kid out of high school, as opposed to a college junior.

The Atlanta Braves have had a long history of going the high school route, the most notable being Chipper Jones.  Their philosophy is to train the raw talent in the Braves Way.

Oh, I forgot.  There is no such thing as the White Sox Way.  Never mind.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm concerned that anyone other than supremely talented players can overcome the Sox player development system. If I am a College player and get drafted by the Sox I go back for my Senior year. If I'm a HS player and get drafted by the Sox I go to college. I wish this would happen so it would get management to wake up 

You wish all the White Sox draft picks in the 2019 Draft that are able to go back to or go to college would not sign with the Sox, so that way management wakes up? Do you not think that the Sox management knows they haven't had a winning record the last 6 seasons, and have actually had the worst record in MLB since then? Do you not think they are aware that they haven't drawn over 2,000,000 fans since 2011, and have been in the bottom 7 of attendance every year since 2012? Legit question, are you even a fan of the Sox?

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Right, but it doesn't matter if he gets drafted before the Sox 2nd round pick (obviously).  

The idea is that he'd know before the draft that we're gonna offer him an overslot deal, so other teams would know that he isn't interested in signing with them. Kind of like Steele Walker last year. 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

You wish all the White Sox draft picks in the 2019 Draft that are able to go back to or go to college would not sign with the Sox, so that way management wakes up? Do you not think that the Sox management knows they haven't had a winning record the last 6 seasons, and have actually had the worst record in MLB since then? Do you not think they are aware that they haven't drawn over 2,000,000 fans since 2011, and have been in the bottom 7 of attendance every year since 2012? Legit question, are you even a fan of the Sox?

It's more about Uncle Jerry than anything else. I know all of those things, I'm sure management does too but Jerry and Kenny don't seem to give a flying fuck. Yes, I'm absolutely a fan of the Sox, i watch 100+ games per season on TV and go to as many as I can afford. I'm beyond frustrated with the lack of results from the draft over nearly two decades. They found Sale in 2010 and Anderson in 2013. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. They need to wake up and realize how far behind the rest of baseball they actually are.

The philosophy is the same as a rebuild short term pain for long term gain.

That being said, it's never going to happen, and there is still time for them to get some shit right. I'll believe it when I see it. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

32 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Who, in this year's Draft, would be a good "sleeper" candidate, based upon this market inefficiency?

Trejyn Fletcher. If Fletcher had grew up in Florida and played baseball year round, he'd have a chance of being a top 5 pick. He's had limited reps, limited people have seen him, and his hit tool is a bit raw... but his tools, yeesh.

6.6 60, 93 mph fb, 95 mph ev, 81 mph bat speed, 90 mph from the outfield. Huge power. Great elite athlete and he reclassed to 2019 and is young.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[GenericUserName]

32 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Who, in this year's Draft, would be a good "sleeper" candidate, based upon this market inefficiency?

There are two outfielders at Marist that have pretty loud tools and there is a kid from Indiana named Ethan Vecrumba who put up some really good testing numbers.

Also, more towards the top of the draft, Dasan Brown is from Canada and is kind of like Kelenic in that he didn't play HS ball his senior year so it was tough to judge competition. Brown actually faced a bunch of pros in the competitions that most scouts saw, so he might have looked relatively over matched. He is also one of the youngest guys in the class, not turning 18 until late September.

I think Tre Fletcher is also interesting because he is from Maine, played some prep school in New York, went back to Maine and reclassified to this class from 2020. So cold weather, under scouted area, and lack of record like other 2019 prospects.

Edited May 29, 2019 by GenericUserName

[Y2Jimmy0]

23 minutes ago, bubba phillips said:

I can't think of one.  But that fact alone should not dismiss drafting a kid out of high school, as opposed to a college junior.

The Atlanta Braves have had a long history of going the high school route, the most notable being Chipper Jones.  Their philosophy is to train the raw talent in the Braves Way.

Oh, I forgot.  There is no such thing as the White Sox Way.  Never mind.

This is actually where Nick Hostetler came from though. Schuerholtz model of power pitching and athletes. 

[GenericUserName]

So maybe relevant to this conversation, it looks like one of the articles from FG draft week is titled "Swing Changers: The Shift to Emphasizing Big Tools and Player Dev". Article is scheduled to come out Friday, but I think just from the title we can basically surmise what its going to say about the draft philosophy of good dev teams.

[Y2Jimmy0]

36 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's more about Uncle Jerry than anything else. I know all of those things, I'm sure management does too but Jerry and Kenny don't seem to give a flying fuck. Yes, I'm absolutely a fan of the Sox, i watch 100+ games per season on TV and go to as many as I can afford. I'm beyond frustrated with the lack of results from the draft over nearly two decades. They found Sale in 2010 and Anderson in 2013. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. They need to wake up and realize how far behind the rest of baseball they actually are.

The philosophy is the same as a rebuild short term pain for long term gain.

That being said, it's never going to happen, and there is still time for them to get some shit right. I'll believe it when I see it. 

More

Replying to @MitchellWinkelm @JamesFox917

1st Round Picks since 2007 by WAR White Sox = 65.9 Cubs = 54.6 Royals = 52.5 Indians = 45.7 Twins = 41.1 Tigers = 25.2 Believe whatever narrative you want and sure, Sale accounts for a lot of it but it’s hard to draft in the 1st round for MLB. Incredibly hard.

43 is Sale but 24 of the Indians is Lindor, 47 of the Cubs is Bryant, Baez and Cashner, 32 of the Royals is Hosmer and Moustakas. It’s all a crap shoot

1 reply2 retweets0 likes

How do I embed tweets on here? 

11:41 AM - 26 May 2019

 

•  

Edited May 29, 2019 by Y2Jimmy0

[Jose Abreu]

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

More

Replying to @MitchellWinkelm @JamesFox917

1st Round Picks since 2007 by WAR White Sox = 65.9 Cubs = 54.6 Royals = 52.5 Indians = 45.7 Twins = 41.1 Tigers = 25.2 Believe whatever narrative you want and sure, Sale accounts for a lot of it but it’s hard to draft in the 1st round for MLB. Incredibly hard.

 43 is Sale but 24 of the Indians is Lindor, 47 of the Cubs is Bryant, Baez and Cashner, 32 of the Royals is Hosmer and Moustakas. It’s all a crap shoot

1 reply2 retweets0 likes

How do I embed tweets on here? 

11:41 AM - 26 May 2019

 

•  

 

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Lots of code dude. Redo it. I'll delete this when it is readable 

Just copy and paste the link and it does it automatically, no need for embed code. 

(I entered https://twitter.com/jeff_feyerer/status/1132688123215929344 originally)

 

[35thstreetswarm]

Interesting writeup on Vaughn that echoes the arguments about him on this board:

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/5/30/18645138/mlb-draft-andrew-vaughn-first-baseman-cal

 

[bmags]

That’s an argument for why it’s jnexcusable to be so bad at international and player development. It’s hard to acquire talent, let alone star talent. You can’t be bad at things that improve your chances to find starters.

But also Sox have been pretty terrible in the rest of the draft. Cleveland has finds like Shane Bieber.

[mqr]

15 hours ago, GenericUserName said:

There are two outfielders at Marist that have pretty loud tools and there is a kid from Indiana named Ethan Vecrumba who put up some really good testing numbers.

Also, more towards the top of the draft, Dasan Brown is from Canada and is kind of like Kelenic in that he didn't play HS ball his senior year so it was tough to judge competition. Brown actually faced a bunch of pros in the competitions that most scouts saw, so he might have looked relatively over matched. He is also one of the youngest guys in the class, not turning 18 until late September.

I think Tre Fletcher is also interesting because he is from Maine, played some prep school in New York, went back to Maine and reclassified to this class from 2020. So cold weather, under scouted area, and lack of record like other 2019 prospects.

Chicago Marist?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

30 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Interesting writeup on Vaughn that echoes the arguments about him on this board:

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/5/30/18645138/mlb-draft-andrew-vaughn-first-baseman-cal

 

That is a fantastic article.  Thank you for sharing.

[Perfect Vision]

For those in favor of the Sox drafting Abrams, I'm curious what you propose the Sox do at first base in the coming years.  The options would seem to be (1) signing a declining 33 year old to a 3-4 year extension, (2) keeping and extending a player currently hitting .172, (3) transitioning Collins to first base, although he's never played the position and almost certainly won't have the bat to be a benefit there, (4) hoping Burger can develop into a quality first basemen, despite the same concerns with Collins plus the unknown of his recovery from injury, or (5) signing one of the aging, mediocre-at-best, free agent first basemen.  All terrible options in my opinion.

While you don't draft strictly for need at the big league level, people are burying their heads in the sand if they don't see that first base is going to be a huge need in the coming years (hopefully contending years), while shortstop is not.

[bmags]

I mean, trade or sign for one. 

[mqr]

15 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

For those in favor of the Sox drafting Abrams, I'm curious what you propose the Sox do at first base in the coming years.  The options would seem to be (1) signing a declining 33 year old to a 3-4 year extension, (2) keeping and extending a player currently hitting .172, (3) transitioning Collins to first base, although he's never played the position and almost certainly won't have the bat to be a benefit there, (4) hoping Burger can develop into a quality first basemen, despite the same concerns with Collins plus the unknown of his recovery from injury, or (5) signing one of the aging, mediocre-at-best, free agent first basemen.  All terrible options in my opinion.

While you don't draft strictly for need at the big league level, people are burying their heads in the sand if they don't see that first base is going to be a huge need in the coming years (hopefully contending years), while shortstop is not.

Filling a need at 1st base is the absolute last concern I have with how to use the number 3 pick in the draft. I'm fine with drafting Vaughn but not because there may be a whole at the absolute easiest position in baseball to fill.