Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
southsider2k5

Sox playoff chances sit at 100%, 3rd in AL for WS odds

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

99.9%. A playoff lock. We could literally go 0-17 and make it. This feels weird

I don't think 27-33 get them in the playoffs. The 99.9% is based on their chances right now not at the end of the season. If they continued to lose, each day that number would go down until eventually they wouldn't be in the playoffs. 

The .1% chance they won't make they playoffs is the number of games they are likely to lose. They aren't likely to lose enough games to not make the playoffs.

Edited by ptatc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I don't think 27-33 get them in the playoffs. The 99.9% is based on their chances right now not at the end of the season. If they continued to lose, each day that number would go down until eventually they wouldn't be in the playoffs. 

The .1% chance they won't make they playoffs is the number of games they are likely to lose. They aren't likely to lose enough games to not make the playoffs.

Yeah, this is kind of the point of 99.9 and not 100%.  There is a slightly greater than zero chance of a collapse and a simulateous amount of just good enough play from another 3rd place team to pass the Sox. Baltimore is 6.5 back of the Sox or Detroit is 7 back and the  "most likely".  The odds are awful of that happening, but not zero.  3-14 by the Sox and 11-7 by Baltimore puts them ahead of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ptatc said:

I don't think 27-33 get them in the playoffs. The 99.9% is based on their chances right now not at the end of the season. If they continued to lose, each day that number would go down until eventually they wouldn't be in the playoffs. 

The .1% chance they won't make they playoffs is the number of games they are likely to lose. They aren't likely to lose enough games to not make the playoffs.

Yeah I know how the odds work, I was just referring to my own estimation that 27 wins or better will be good enough for the 8th seed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yeah I know how the odds work, I was just referring to my own estimation that 27 wins or better will be good enough for the 8th seed.

Nah, 8 AL teams will have at least 31 wins. It may not matter for the Astros since they’ll be gifted the 6-seed, but the Yankees will get there, I’m sure. 

The Sox magic number over the Orioles and Tigers is 11. 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, flavum said:

Nah, 8 AL teams will have at least 31 wins. It may not matter for the Astros since they’ll be gifted the 6-seed, but the Yankees will get there, I’m sure. 

The Sox magic number over the Orioles and Tigers is 11. 
 

Just because of how many cross over games there are in each division, I am going to guess we see at least one team make it at 28 or 29 wins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just because of how many cross over games there are in each division, I am going to guess we see at least one team make it at 28 or 29 wins.

If it’s anyone, it’ll be the Astros simply because they’ll get the 6-seed for finishing second in a bad division. The Yankees need to go 9-8 for 31-29. They’ll do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, flavum said:

Nah, 8 AL teams will have at least 31 wins. It may not matter for the Astros since they’ll be gifted the 6-seed, but the Yankees will get there, I’m sure. 

The Sox magic number over the Orioles and Tigers is 11. 
 

It's not about how the top 8 teams will have at least 31 wins, because you are counting the White Sox as one of those 8 teams. It's about how many wins the 9th place team will have. If you think the 9th place team will have 26 wins, then 27 would have been good enough to get in the playoffs.

That's what @Jose Abreu is saying.  The Yankees could get to 31 wins, but if the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners don't get more than 26 wins, then he is right in saying we can go 0-17 and still get in the playoffs.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It's not about how the top 8 teams will have at least 31 wins, because you are counting the White Sox as one of those 8 teams. It's about how many wins the 9th place team will have. If you think the 9th place team will have 26 wins, then 27 would have been good enough to get in the playoffs.

That's what @Jose Abreu is saying.  The Yankees could get to 31 wins, but if the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners don't get more than 26 wins, then he is right in saying we can go 0-17 and still get in the playoffs.

The Orioles are on pace to win 29. Also, if we go 0-17, Detroit gets 3 more wins this weekend and are now 22-22, and on pace for 30. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

The Orioles are on pace to win 29. Also, if we go 0-17, Detroit gets 3 more wins this weekend and are now 22-22, and on pace for 30. 

Agreed. I don’t think we’d get in if we went 0-17. I was just explaining his thought process because there seemed to be some confusion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the final standings:

  1. Oak 38-22
  2.  TB 37-23
  3. Cle 37-23
  4. Sox 36-24
  5. Tor 34-26
  6. Hou 31-29
  7. Min 35-25
  8. NY 32-28

 

Edited by flavum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, flavum said:

Here's the final standings:

  1. Oak 38-22
  2.  TB 37-23
  3. Cle 37-23
  4. Sox 36-24
  5. Tor 34-26
  6. Hou 31-29
  7. Min 35-25
  8. NY 32-28

 

That would suck to miss out on the division title by a game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, hi8is said:

That would suck to miss out on the division title by a game.

It would be two games, because short of beating the Indians 3 out of 4 in the final meeting and having a better division record, the Indians win the tie breaker.

It would be great if the Sox beat the Twins and Indians 3 of 4 to tie the season series with both, but they have to get the pitching staff in order for the best-of-3.

Edited by flavum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sox vs Detroit 6-1

Sox vs KC 9-1

Sox vs Pitt 3-1

Sox vs Cincy 0-0

TOTAL 18-3

MN vs Detroit 4-4

MN vs KC 5-5

MN vs Pitt 3-1

MN vs Cincy 0-0

TOTAL 12-10

Cle vs Detroit 4-2

Cle vs KC 5-4

Cle vs Pitt 3-0

Cle vs Cincy 3-1

TOTAL 15-7

We can talk all day about the Sox beating bad teams, but Cleveland and Minnesota have not done it, while the Sox have.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In this Age of Covid, will the players on playoff teams continue the silly ritual of champagne showers in the clubhouses after playoff clinching wins?  They were stupid last year, and will be dumber this year if continued, IMO.  With the current playoff structure, that means there will be a total of 27, count 'em, 27 champagne showers, if they are allowed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, oldsox said:

In this Age of Covid, will the players on playoff teams continue the silly ritual of champagne showers in the clubhouses after playoff clinching wins?  They were stupid last year, and will be dumber this year if continued, IMO.  With the current playoff structure, that means there will be a total of 27, count 'em, 27 champagne showers, if they are allowed.

This really does make you sound old. I am getting off of your lawn now.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

This really does make you sound old. I am getting off of your lawn now.

It's just a question, Southsider, just a simple question.  And, you want to see masked baseball players spraying champagne on teammates after 27 different games?  That makes you sound very young and easily entertained.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, oldsox said:

It's just a question, Southsider, just a simple question.  And, you want to see masked baseball players spraying champagne on teammates after 27 different games?  That makes you sound very young and easily entertained.

Its a right of passage for winners.  Maybe that changes in 2020 because of pandemic reasons, but there is nothing wrong with the celebration at all.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, flavum said:

The 6-seed is under.500, because that makes sense.

 

26 minutes ago, flavum said:

Royals up 3-0 on Indians 

Indians fall to the 7-seed if they lose. With the expanded postseason, MLB should have just made the top 3 seeds be the division winners, and the next five best records fall in order.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it wrong to want to see grown men ritually spray champagne on each other? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, flavum said:

Royals up 3-0 on Indians 

Singer actually has a no hitter through 6.

Now 7-0

Edited by chw42

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Is it wrong to want to see grown men ritually spray champagne on each other? 

Unequivically, no.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×