caulfield12 Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31554219/why-your-favorite-team-more-tampa-bay-rays Interesting stuff...although most is pretty basic analysis. Still worthwhile of our attention. White Sox get a mention for “too much money committed to future payrolls/extensions” category. No mention of 2.9 fWAR for less than one year of Cronenworth and that Blake Snell had his best outing of the season by far against a tough opponent this week and is still on course for a 2+ fWAR...while Patino has yet to prove he can be an effective starter, yet. Also, SD would still be better off with healthy versions of Austin Nola/Caratini than Mejia/Hedges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 7, 2021 Author Share Posted June 7, 2021 https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-after-week-9 Rays 1, Sox 2, Padres 3.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 lol, such a sloppy article. How much of the Sox' 72 million guaranteed in 2024 is "FA money" and how much is arb buyout money? Isn't 3/4 of it arb buyout? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: lol, such a sloppy article. How much of the Sox' 72 million guaranteed in 2024 is "FA money" and how much is arb buyout money? Isn't 3/4 of it arb buyout? Spotrac would break it down... but yeah no unique analytical trade secrets, other than having starters like Glasgow, Rich Hill/Dick Mountain (great value signing) and McClanahan hitting 100. Arozarena has been in the mid 700s for OPS. Just bring up Franco and get it over with, already! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 5 hours ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31554219/why-your-favorite-team-more-tampa-bay-rays Interesting stuff...although most is pretty basic analysis. Still worthwhile of our attention. White Sox get a mention for “too much money committed to future payrolls/extensions” category. No mention of 2.9 fWAR for less than one year of Cronenworth and that Blake Snell had his best outing of the season by far against a tough opponent this week and is still on course for a 2+ fWAR...while Patino has yet to prove he can be an effective starter, yet. Also, SD would still be better off with healthy versions of Austin Nola/Caratini than Mejia/Hedges. We can't be the Rays because we...locked up our young talent? Woe is us. 3 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Quin said: We can't be the Rays because we...locked up our young talent? Woe is us. Yeah, Darvish/Heyward/Chatwood/EJax 3-4 years ago looks a LOT different than the White Sox current collection. You can still argue there's risk attendant with Jimenez, Bummer and Robert, but 90-95% of MLB GM's would make the exact same moves. The Indians' organization has been doing it through like 4-5 cycles of talent, going back to those early to mid 90's teams that were so dominant but came up just short in the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FriendlyNorthsider Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Ive written about this in another thread, but the Sox do have a lot of money committed to '22, '23, and '24 as they don't have too many contacts coming off the books and a lot of the young core is due for Arb raises or steep increases from their extensions. For comparison sake, the Sox have $85M (not including the Arb 2 years for Madrigal and Cease and Arb 1 years for Kopech and Crotchet) in payroll committed to 2024 and the Cubs have just $5M. The Sox financial commitments are pretty much entirely healthy. There arent any true albatross contacts and the long term commitments all seem like good investments at this point. The roughly $52M/year investment into Keuchel, Hendricks, and Grandal will ultimately impact what theyre able to spend in the coming summers, however. For 2022, the Sox have $116M committed (The Arb raises for Gio and Engle and the buyout from Eaton probably even out), but need to replace Rodon and Lynn who have been aces for a whopping $12M combined. The Sox will also have to patch up the bench and bullpen as their are a few expiring contacts (Lamb and Hamilton) and arb casualties (Marshall, Fry, and maybe Leury). The Sox need to go cheap and homegrown for as much of these spots as possible. Eloy can replace Eaton, defense be damned. I think Kopech needs to be converted back into being a starter. That would allow the Sox to afford to retain Lynn or Rodon and have money to address their other needs. The only other in house option that will likely be ready to start in 2022 is Stiever and Mike Wright who would be significant downgrades, but are serviceable As for relievers, Burdi and Medieros would be the in house options to fill in whats missing in the pen and Pilkington (maybe as a starter) and Gomez are also intriguing. As for hitting, next up in the pipeline is Burger, Sheets, Zavala, Cespedes, Adolfo, and Romy Gonzalez. I would love to see Burger and Sheets get some big league at bats this year and to see how well how they both can defend. It's also important to see if Yermin ends up more toward his player of the month April or his .567 OPS since May. It would be huge if he maintains his standing as a cheap long-term stars in the lineup along with Madrigal and Vaughn. If there was ever a time to increase the payroll this next offseason is it. The 2021-22 free agent class (pending extensions) is stacked which fits perfectly in this window over the next 2 years. Yoan goes from 6.8M in 21 to 24.8M in 24. Robert goes from $3,5M in 21 to 12.5M in 24. Eloy goes from 4.3 to 13.8. Timmy Goes from 7.2 to 14. Yoan, Robert, Eloy, Hendricks and TA cost the Sox $33.1M in 2021. The commitment to those same players goes up to 80.1M in 2024. As I said earlier, that doesnt include the Arb raises/extensions for Madrigal, Cease, Kopech and Crotchet. Gio and Keuchel are also UFAs in 2024 so thats two more rotation spots to fill. If the Sox don't develop their young pitching, they will have the same problem the Cubs had come 2024. If I were Rick Hahn, I would consider my window 2021-2023 and make whatever moves they need to get over the hump. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 The Padres are at $173 million and Sox around $131 million. If unprecedented financial flexibility in 2022-23 doesn’t equal roughly the midpoint, or $152 million, we’re going to be prevented from finishing out World Series contending teams by roughly $20ish million IMO. Abreu is also at $18 million for 2022. Between the three big veterans you mentioned before and Jose’s deal, that’s eating up a rather significant chunk of payroll space. Vaughn, Mercedes, Burger, Sheets, Colas and Cespedes are going to have to have to fill out the corner OF/1B/DH spots along with Eloy, or some trades/positive breaks in development have to occur. Adolfo/Rutherford need to progress greatly in the next 2-3 months or be traded for relievers. The obvious/glaring need in the offseason is another starter (to go along with Kopech) and/or resigning one of Lynn and Rodon...huge lingering doubts Crochet will be able to survive as a starter but we shall just have to wait and see. Max Scherzer will be one of the most obvious high impact/shorter time frame targets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 The Rays have the best pro scouting group in the league and a top 5 amateur scouting department. They make ruthless trades and don’t get killed publicly due to smaller market but it always comes back to scouting and development Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 This is a great article @caulfield12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: The Rays have the best pro scouting group in the league and a top 5 amateur scouting department. They make ruthless trades and don’t get killed publicly due to smaller market but it always comes back to scouting and development How don't their pro and amateur scouts/analytical department staff get poached by the bigger teams? Are they just paying better than any other teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 Just now, ron883 said: This is a great article @caulfield12 Is this a trick? Am I on Candid Camera or Punk’d? Where is Alan Funt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 18 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said: lol, such a sloppy article. How much of the Sox' 72 million guaranteed in 2024 is "FA money" and how much is arb buyout money? Isn't 3/4 of it arb buyout? this. too many people in media and across the sox fans give hahn a pass for spending money when most of it was just guaranteeing arb money. still holding out some (not much) hope that with fans back in the stands and a strong run at a WS this year that Jerry opens up his checkbook to the max and re-signs a guy like Lynn, makes a strong offer to Rodon, maybe goes after a Nick Castallenos, etc. I want an abundance of talent on this team where you're searching of how to get a guy like Cespedes, Colas, etc. into a lineup. Baseball is a long season - teams like the Padres and Dodgers are doing it right. Those teams had like 7 man rotations and they're barely getting by. They had talented deep rosters. Injuries like Bellinger or Lamet or Tatis or Dustin May happen. Just like they happened with Eloy and Robert. This team is good, but it needs a few more NICE, BIG TICKET guys to get over that hump completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 50 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said: this. too many people in media and across the sox fans give hahn a pass for spending money when most of it was just guaranteeing arb money. still holding out some (not much) hope that with fans back in the stands and a strong run at a WS this year that Jerry opens up his checkbook to the max and re-signs a guy like Lynn, makes a strong offer to Rodon, maybe goes after a Nick Castallenos, etc. I want an abundance of talent on this team where you're searching of how to get a guy like Cespedes, Colas, etc. into a lineup. Baseball is a long season - teams like the Padres and Dodgers are doing it right. Those teams had like 7 man rotations and they're barely getting by. They had talented deep rosters. Injuries like Bellinger or Lamet or Tatis or Dustin May happen. Just like they happened with Eloy and Robert. This team is good, but it needs a few more NICE, BIG TICKET guys to get over that hump completely. Castellanos would be about our only significant add...minus the bullpen...going into next season. If they’re going to spend, the first priority should be pitching, and Nick also faded last year after a white hot start, so we’d be over paying in a Shields-like deal. Don’t think the Reds can afford the same type of contract subsidy the Padres came up with under Fowler. Finally, they’re hot again and right back on the cusp of getting back into the NL Central race. That’s why shorter terms options like Starling Marte or Haniger or even Gallo have more appeal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Do the Rays seem to have this failed potential in their farm system where everyone is a 1B/DH candidate? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GermanSoxFan Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, kitekrazy said: Do the Rays seem to have this failed potential in their farm system where everyone is a 1B/DH candidate? Odd thing to complain about , when the starting SS, CF(and his backup), 2B the back up catcher and the utility infileder are all homegrown and saw significant time in the minor league system. Even most trade acquisitions spent a bunch of time in the system. Sox developed a decent amount of up the middle talent in recent years. Edited June 8, 2021 by GermanSoxFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said: Odd thing to complain about , when the starting SS, CF(and his backup), 2B the back up catcher and the utility infileder are all homegrown and saw significant time in the minor league system. Even most trade acquisitions spent a bunch of time in the system. Sox developed a decent amount of up the middle talent in recent years. Again, we have SIX home grown 1st round picks ON OUR ROSTER TODAY. This might have been a thing five years ago, but anymore, we are successfully turning our top picks into useful players. We also have on this roster one of our 6th round, 19th round, another 19th round, 20th round, and 22nd rounders on this active roster. That is completely leaving out guys like Evan Marshall who we got as an MiLB FA, Jose Ruiz who was a waiver claim, Yermin a MiLB Rule 5 pick, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: Again, we have SIX home grown 1st round picks ON OUR ROSTER TODAY. This might have been a thing five years ago, but anymore, we are successfully turning our top picks into useful players. We also have on this roster one of our 6th round, 19th round, another 19th round, 20th round, and 22nd rounders on this active roster. That is completely leaving out guys like Evan Marshall who we got as an MiLB FA, Jose Ruiz who was a waiver claim, Yermin a MiLB Rule 5 pick, etc. Anderson, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, Crochet......who am I forgetting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Anderson, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, Crochet......who am I forgetting? Rodon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Anderson, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, Crochet......who am I forgetting? Rodon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 (edited) Burger is next, and Burdi made it as well...Courtney Hawkins just signed with BIRM since Cespedes will never arrive. J/K. Edited June 8, 2021 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Burger is next, and Burdi made it as well...Courtney Hawkins just signed with BIRM since Cespedes will never arrive. J/K. Burdi was a comp pick, bro. Burger may make it up later in the season if Yoan gets injured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 9, 2021 Author Share Posted June 9, 2021 White Sox now two games ahead of 2020 pace, 37-23 vs. 35-25. After 47, 32-15 in 2020. Last 120 games=72-48, or 0.600 Full season projection=97-65 This year’s pace=100-62 15 years ago since a better first half....26 games over .500 in 2006 at ASB, struggled to 92-70 finished, missed playoffs behind DET and the Liriano/Santana/Nathan Twins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 16 hours ago, caulfield12 said: Castellanos would be about our only significant add...minus the bullpen...going into next season. If they’re going to spend, the first priority should be pitching, and Nick also faded last year after a white hot start, so we’d be over paying in a Shields-like deal. Don’t think the Reds can afford the same type of contract subsidy the Padres came up with under Fowler. Finally, they’re hot again and right back on the cusp of getting back into the NL Central race. That’s why shorter terms options like Starling Marte or Haniger or even Gallo have more appeal. Yeah I pounded on the table for Castellanos before he signed with Cincy. The guy is for real but has opt out after '21 and Boros as agent so he would be the definition of a 'rental'. Still, what a bat in the 2 spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capital G Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 Living in Tampa I'm glad their my 2nd team. I'm always amazed with our front office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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