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GAME THREAD 5/23 - WHAT'S YOUR VECTOR, HECTOR?


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The Mariners traded for a young strike-thrower (Noesi) and one of the very top prospects in baseball (Jesus Montero). Nothing wrong with the idea. Nothing wrong with the ideas of the players they got. Plenty wrong with the realities of the players they got.

 

Noesi interested me, because he could throw strikes. And it’s because of him I’ve come to appreciate the difference between regular strikes and quality strikes. It was a strike he threw last night to Coco Crisp, don’t you know. Missed up, by two feet, but that pitch didn’t go in the books as a ball. Noesi’s been able to find the zone, but he’s been unable to find areas within it, and on top of that, he was the original guy who struggled with 0-and-2 pitches before Erasmo Ramirez struggled with 0-and-2 pitches. A couple years ago, before we knew what Noesi really was, he allowed five 0-and-2 home runs and three 0-and-2 doubles in 48 plate appearances. Ramirez, at least, hits spots and has a good secondary pitch. Noesi’s pitched cluelessly, and he hasn’t had the stuff to get away with it. Reporters picked up on it before I did. I tried to be forgiving for a while. In the long run, Hector Noesi made no friends.

 

It’s interesting how many people can’t stand him, since he was a bigger factor in 2012 than in any other season. He barely did anything a year ago, and he lasted two appearances in 2014. Noesi spending most of 2013 in the minors did nothing to soften people’s impressions, and I think today’s being considered a joyous occasion, because the Mariners swapped out a long reliever. Even the Mariners got sick of the act, since they put Noesi on the roster and then changed their minds after a handful of days. The general message here is, the team isn’t screwing around, it intends to win this year. The specific message is, go away, Hector Noesi, you are not needed any longer.

 

You only get so many chances, as a pitcher. Noesi’s 27, so he’s not young anymore. He can throw in the low- to mid-90s, so it’s not like he won’t have a job in a month somewhere, but his stuff isn’t special enough for him to keep getting good opportunities, and his approach isn’t good enough to make up for the stuff. At some point, with a frustrating pitcher, you have to cut ties and move on to the next crop. The Mariners ran out of reasons to be patient with Noesi, and while some other team could and will take him on, Noesi’s career isn’t starting anymore. He’s not some kid who just needs time. Now he’s been dumped by an organization, not in a trade for a player, but in a trade for a roster spot that doesn’t have Hector Noesi in it. Noesi isn’t yet a journeyman, but he’s headed down that path and you have to wonder if he realizes it.

 

Noesi was born in 1987 in the Dominican Republic, in a municipality named Esperanza. Esperanza is Spanish for hope, or promise, and that’s something Noesi’s always had, and something people have had for him. It’s 2014 now and Hector Noesi is a long way from home. At the moment, in a professional sense, he doesn’t have a home at all.

 

http://www.ussmariner.com/2014/04/04/hecto...ariners-career/

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:43 AM)
Noesi has to win a game sometime and I vote for today!

 

And I don't think Noesi's been THAT bad for the Sox. He's been fairly serviceable.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:50 AM)
And I don't think Noesi's been THAT bad for the Sox. He's been fairly serviceable.

 

He's been the king of "one bad inning" so far. That first start you could tell he was tired. Defense really betrayed him in Houston.

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We can try to spin it all we want but he's been terrible outside his second start against the Cubs.

 

 

First start he wasn't stretched out at all to be fair and died by giving up 4er and 6 baserunners in just 3.2 IP.

 

Next start he was good. 5 IP with 6ks and 5 baserunners.

 

3rd start was technically a quality one but he gave up 8 hits and 3 walks in just 6 IP. Can't keep that up.

 

4th start was more of the same except without the luck. 8 hits, 3 walks, 6 runs 5 earned.

 

 

 

Hope he turns it around tonight since I have first row seats.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:07 AM)
We can try to spin it all we want but he's been terrible outside his second start against the Cubs.

 

 

First start he wasn't stretched out at all to be fair and died by giving up 4er and 6 baserunners in just 3.2 IP.

 

Next start he was good. 5 IP with 6ks and 5 baserunners.

 

3rd start was technically a quality one but he gave up 8 hits and 3 walks in just 6 IP. Can't keep that up.

 

4th start was more of the same except without the luck. 8 hits, 3 walks, 6 runs 5 earned.

 

 

 

Hope he turns it around tonight since I have first row seats.

 

If the defense doesn't f*** him in the 4th game, his numbers look WAY different, plus he is probably able to pitch at least another inning. There is very good chance he gets out of the first inning untouched if that double play is turned.

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:07 AM)
We can try to spin it all we want but he's been terrible outside his second start against the Cubs.

 

 

First start he wasn't stretched out at all to be fair and died by giving up 4er and 6 baserunners in just 3.2 IP.

 

Next start he was good. 5 IP with 6ks and 5 baserunners.

 

3rd start was technically a quality one but he gave up 8 hits and 3 walks in just 6 IP. Can't keep that up.

 

4th start was more of the same except without the luck. 8 hits, 3 walks, 6 runs 5 earned.

 

 

 

Hope he turns it around tonight since I have first row seats.

 

So, 2 QS and one start against the Cubs you deemed "good", and you say he is terrible?

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:11 AM)
So, 2 QS and one start against the Cubs you deemed "good", and you say he is terrible?

Yes he's been terrible. He's been a lot more lucky than good which is funny because he hasn't been good at all. His whip is unsustainable for someone to keep in the rotation long. Hopefully it comes way down tonight. The defense being poor for him is fair but he needs to pitch over it as well.

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He's a work in progress. He's a different pitcher here than elsewhere. Will it work? Nobody knows, but the Sox need more players like this. If he turns things over and becomes a quality SP then you control him for multiple seasons, meaning he either becomes a part of your future, or in a depth situation provides real trade value, the type you can actually start to get a little excited about. No sense wasting starts on Paulino or Carroll, and if Erik Johnson gets his velocity back and looks like the player we thought we had, then Johnson comes back, but IMO in that case you still go Noesi over Rienzo given upside, and you put Rienzo in the pen. "Innings limit" is a great way to explain some things such as option-forced "baseball" moves.

 

Hopefully he does well. Noesi still makes some really bad pitches but he looks more under control here. He doesn't have Floyd's raw ability but remember how out of sorts Floyd was in ST when we got him from Philly. Just takes time. Same thing as Count, although again not the same ability level. But if Noesi reaches his potential he's every bit as good as the real Erik Johnson is IMO.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 23, 2014 -> 09:32 AM)
The Mariners traded for a young strike-thrower (Noesi) and one of the very top prospects in baseball (Jesus Montero). Nothing wrong with the idea. Nothing wrong with the ideas of the players they got. Plenty wrong with the realities of the players they got.

 

Noesi interested me, because he could throw strikes. And it’s because of him I’ve come to appreciate the difference between regular strikes and quality strikes. It was a strike he threw last night to Coco Crisp, don’t you know. Missed up, by two feet, but that pitch didn’t go in the books as a ball. Noesi’s been able to find the zone, but he’s been unable to find areas within it, and on top of that, he was the original guy who struggled with 0-and-2 pitches before Erasmo Ramirez struggled with 0-and-2 pitches. A couple years ago, before we knew what Noesi really was, he allowed five 0-and-2 home runs and three 0-and-2 doubles in 48 plate appearances. Ramirez, at least, hits spots and has a good secondary pitch. Noesi’s pitched cluelessly, and he hasn’t had the stuff to get away with it. Reporters picked up on it before I did. I tried to be forgiving for a while. In the long run, Hector Noesi made no friends.

 

It’s interesting how many people can’t stand him, since he was a bigger factor in 2012 than in any other season. He barely did anything a year ago, and he lasted two appearances in 2014. Noesi spending most of 2013 in the minors did nothing to soften people’s impressions, and I think today’s being considered a joyous occasion, because the Mariners swapped out a long reliever. Even the Mariners got sick of the act, since they put Noesi on the roster and then changed their minds after a handful of days. The general message here is, the team isn’t screwing around, it intends to win this year. The specific message is, go away, Hector Noesi, you are not needed any longer.

 

You only get so many chances, as a pitcher. Noesi’s 27, so he’s not young anymore. He can throw in the low- to mid-90s, so it’s not like he won’t have a job in a month somewhere, but his stuff isn’t special enough for him to keep getting good opportunities, and his approach isn’t good enough to make up for the stuff. At some point, with a frustrating pitcher, you have to cut ties and move on to the next crop. The Mariners ran out of reasons to be patient with Noesi, and while some other team could and will take him on, Noesi’s career isn’t starting anymore. He’s not some kid who just needs time. Now he’s been dumped by an organization, not in a trade for a player, but in a trade for a roster spot that doesn’t have Hector Noesi in it. Noesi isn’t yet a journeyman, but he’s headed down that path and you have to wonder if he realizes it.

 

Noesi was born in 1987 in the Dominican Republic, in a municipality named Esperanza. Esperanza is Spanish for hope, or promise, and that’s something Noesi’s always had, and something people have had for him. It’s 2014 now and Hector Noesi is a long way from home. At the moment, in a professional sense, he doesn’t have a home at all.

 

http://www.ussmariner.com/2014/04/04/hecto...ariners-career/

IIRC Mariners gave him like half a season as a starter before giving up on him completely and trying to make him a reliever. No one should be surprised at the Mariners inability to develop a good-looking young player.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 23, 2014 -> 10:53 AM)
He's been the king of "one bad inning" so far. That first start you could tell he was tired. Defense really betrayed him in Houston.

 

I'm not so sure about that...

 

The 4 runs he gave up in the first were all his fault. He would have given up more if Sierra didn't make an awesome catch in right.

 

 

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QUOTE (chw42 @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:34 AM)
I'm not so sure about that...

 

The 4 runs he gave up in the first were all his fault. He would have given up more if Sierra didn't make an awesome catch in right.

 

Gordon completely whiffed on a double play to the bag before any run scored

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:28 AM)
There's no way in hell the Sox choose Noesi over Rienzo assuming results keep steady.

On the surface Noesi has been moving toward the end of quality starting pitcher, last outing being another example of settling down. Rienzo has shows he's a Major League starter. I think it's likeliest that Johnson stays in Charlotte until one of these 2 pitches his way out of the situation, and of course that's only assuming Johnson pitches his way back to the Majors. But as an options issue, knowing that you'd lose Noesi entirely trying to send him down and also knowing he can't work in relief, should all three of Johnson, Noesi, and Rienzo pitch well and put themselves into the picture, you put Rienzo in the pen or send him down because he has options. But this is also assuming no one else is traded or gets hurt.

 

In the end it's pretty likely that the Sox either won't have to make a decision or a player will make that decision for himself.

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Agree it's an unlikely scenario but I assure you it doesn't matter that Noesi has 0 options. The Sox aren't going to protect a 27 year old sudden journeyman who has shown little indication of turning into a quality starter over one of their own 25 year old prospects that has found nice success at the MLB level.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 11:56 AM)
Agree it's an unlikely scenario but I assure you it doesn't matter that Noesi has 0 options. The Sox aren't going to protect a 27 year old sudden journeyman who has shown little indication of turning into a quality starter over one of their own 25 year old prospects that has found nice success at the MLB level.

He's not a journeyman though. He spent almost his entire career with one team that gave up on him. He's a reclamation project, and years control matter more than age, and 27 is still young and still within the possibility of inclusion into our core.

 

He's definitely shown indication improvement. Whether he continues and progresses to the state Rienzo has been in lately we'll just have to see. But if he does you certainly just don't dump him in favor of someone you have options on. But again, this is all really unlikely. One of these 3 is probably not going to make it, and there's still always the possibility of someone else getting moved or especially going on the DL.

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