The battle for shortstop - applying some odds

[NorthSideSox72]

There are four candidates for the starting job at shortstop on Opening Day. Who gets the job? Who gets a bench role? Will there be a split presence at the position?

 

We take a look at the candidates here, and try to place percentage odds on each of their chances for a job.

 

What numbers would you put on each?

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

I really think that it's Jimmy Rollins job to lose, but at age 37 and clearly on the decline he is no lock to win the job.

 

I would put the odds of each candidate as follows:

 

Rollins: 55% - Barring a complete collapse he should be offered a utility job if he is not the starter. Whether he has an out clause and would accept a utility role remains to be seen.

 

Saladino: 30% - He is the obvious fall back if Rollins doesn't work out. He is a virtual lock for a super utility role if either Rollins is the starter or Sanchez or Anderson is and Rollins has an out clause and doesn't want to be a utility player.

 

Anderson: 10% - He is close to being ready and if he lights it up in spring and Saladino and Rollins falter he may be given a chance. If he is not the starter he will be in Charlotte without a doubt.

 

Sanchez - 5% - I don't think they really view him as a starter at short due to his lack of arm strength but it the others fail and has a strong spring, who knows. He will be a utility player if Saladino wins the job and Rollins does not stay as the utility guy. If Saladino and Rollins are both on the roster, Sanchez will either be in the minors or maybe be packaged in a trade.

Edited February 26, 2016 by lasttriptotulsa

[JoshPR]

I want saladino, but it will be rollins. Actually Its lawrie at second who concerns me a bit

[cabiness42]

Rollins - 48%

Saladino - 47%

Anderson - 4.9999%

Sanchez - 0.0001%

[southsider2k5]

Maybe I am the only one, but I see 80% Rollins, 19% Saladino, 1% anyone else.

[JoshPR]

Maybe I am the only one, but I see 80% Rollins, 19% Saladino, 1% anyone else.

Bout right. I mean if jimmy got something left he will help.

[hogan873]

Nice write up and breakdown. I would pretty much agree with the chances of each to be the starter.

 

I think the starting SS job is Rollins' to lose. He signed with the Sox over other teams (at least the Giants) because he believes he has a real chance to be the starting SS for the Sox. If he proves to be at least pretty good in ST, I expect him to be starter while being a mentor to the younger guys.

 

I think the Sox are definitely prepping Anderson to be the starting SS for the Sox in 2017 and beyond. Therefore, I don't see him being on the major league roster come opening day. Barring injuries and/or very poor performance by others, he might see some action in September.

 

Saladino and Sanchez are the wild cards. One of them will most likely end up being a bench player/utility guy for 2016. I would think that Saladino would be that guy, but there's an argument to me made that playing everyday in AAA will prepare him better for whatever the Sox have planned for him. Which I honestly don't know what that is. Third base after two years on Frazier? Second base? Or will we see him traded before the season starts or before the deadline? I think Sanchez ends up in AAA unless the scenario occurs where Saladino is in AAA to develop.

[OmarComing25]

Honestly the only way I see Anderson as the starting SS is if Rollins and Saladino both break their legs in Spring Training. Even if Anderson lights it up in March, I'm not going to take much out of 50 PA when guys are just trying to get ready for the season.

[flavum]

Rollins- 65%

Saladino- 34%

Other- 1%

 

I'm going out on a limb and say Sanchez will be involved in a trade before opening day when the Sox get an outfielder.

 

Parrino and Lombardozzi will get long looks for backup infielder.

[Eminor3rd]

Rollins - 10%

Saladino - 8%

Anderson - 1%

Sanchez - 1%

Beckham - 80%

[BlackSox13]

Rollins - 10%

Saladino - 8%

Anderson - 1%

Sanchez - 1%

Beckham - 80%

Nice!

 

As long as Rollins and Saladino are healthy I don't think Anderson and Sanchez have much of a shot so for me, it comes down to Rollins/Saladino. I think both will be on the opening day 25 man roster but I have no idea who starts opening day or what roles they will be used in. I do know that I'm going to have fun watching them both in ST games.

 

 

[fathom]

Rollins- 70%

Saladino- 15%

Desmond- 7.5%

Anderson- 7.5%

[southsider2k5]

Rollins - 10%

Saladino - 8%

Anderson - 1%

Sanchez - 1%

Beckham - 80%

 

Trick question, the answer is always Lyle Mouton.

[NorthSideSox72]

Rollins- 70%

Saladino- 15%

Desmond- 7.5%

Anderson- 7.5%

Not sure if serious.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I honestly don't really see how Sanchez has a spot on the roster. Rollins at SS. Saladino as the utility guy. 4 man bench doesn't really leave a spot for Sanchez.

[fathom]

Not sure if serious.

 

Always a chance of crazy injuries, etc.

[fathom]

I honestly don't really see how Sanchez has a spot on the roster. Rollins at SS. Saladino as the utility guy. 4 man bench doesn't really leave a spot for Sanchez.

 

Yep, he really should be trade bait. Not many options for him to break into the infield rotation the next 2 years.

[Eminor3rd]

Trick question, the answer is always Lyle Mouton.

 

Touche!

[blackmooncreeping]

Rollins most likely will do the same thing for the Sox that he did last season for the Dodgers. Keep the seat warm for Anderson in either late 2016, or to start 2017. I think Rollins was a great pick-up for the mentoring aspect of things.

[Bob Sacamano]

Always a chance of crazy injuries, etc.

 

True. Both Rollins and Saladino can both look uninspiring the first few weeks leading to a signing. Don't think it's gonna happen though personally.

 

I think Desmond ends up back with the Nats.

[LittleHurt05]

Maybe I am the only one, but I see 80% Rollins, 19% Saladino, 1% anyone else.

 

I agree. They obviously don't like something about Saladino or you don't even bring a guy like Rollins in.

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Rollins- 65%

Saladino- 34%

Other- 1%

 

I'm going out on a limb and say Sanchez will be involved in a trade before opening day when the Sox get an outfielder.

 

Parrino and Lombardozzi will get long looks for backup infielder.

 

Couldn't agree more. I get the feeling the Sox don't have Sanchez in their future plans. From what we've seen Saladino can easily fit into a utility IF position more so than Sanchez because he can play 3B. I like Sanchez and his glove, but I have zero faith in the guys ability to hit at the Major League level.

[bear_brian]

Couldn't agree more. I get the feeling the Sox don't have Sanchez in their future plans. From what we've seen Saladino can easily fit into a utility IF position more so than Sanchez because he can play 3B. I like Sanchez and his glove, but I have zero faith in the guys ability to hit at the Major League level.

 

There does not seem to be any love whatsoever for Sanchez's bat. He did not inspire a lot of confidence last year, granted. But maybe we should look at the following:

 

a) He is all of 23 years old, has always played far above his age differential in the minors, and only has 500 AB's in MLB;

 

b) Last year he did hit .252 with a .687 OPS in the second half. Granted, he died in September, but so did most of the team.

 

c) His minor league line, starting when he was just 17, is .288, with an OBP of .354 and an OPS of .723.

 

d) With that outstanding defense - I have a hard time recalling anyone who gets rid of the ball quicker on the double play - and the fact that he is a switch hitter, there sure seems to be more potential value than many people on this board seem to think he has.

 

 

Just one man's opinion ...

[Balta1701]

So...just something I was pondering over last night. Let's just hypothetically say that Rollins were to win the SS position and let's focus on defense, position by position.

 

OF - same as last year.

1b - same as last year

2b - Lawrie - he's an upgrade over Johnson but he's a downgrade compared to Sanchez.

SS - Rollins - he was a downgrade defensively from Alexei in 2015, both UZR and DRS agree, and Alexei wasn't that great last year.

3b - Saladino was excellent there and Beckham was ok, Gillaspie was terrible. Frazier is an upgrade compared to the last 2 but a downgrade compared to Saladino.

C - upgrade compared to both as long as they stay healthy.

 

So overall compared to at least the 2nd half of last year, the defense around the infield is worse and the OF is the same. That's a pretty poor defensive lineup in the IF with no really strong anchor anywhere. It's better than what we started with in April/May of last year, but unless someone improves over last year, not by much.

[GreenSox]

Sanchez and Saladino played less than 1 year. Reasonable to believe that one or both would improve and it wouldn't have to be giagantic to be better players than Lawrie or Rollins.

Lawrie made sense until they traded for Frazier. Is there an affirmative plan or just reactions.

 

So I'd say that Rollins in 80%. Unless he has absolutely nothing in the tank or gets hurt, he's starting and Saladino is sitting.

The White Sox way.

Edited February 27, 2016 by GreenSox