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http://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/6/23/1201...f-junior-guerra

 

There’s really no indication that Junior is going to slow down anytime soon, either. While some might point to his low .262 BABIP, fly-ball pitchers like Guerra tend to have a lower than average BABIP and he’s shown to be adept at producing an above-average amount of pop-ups. He generates plenty of swings-and-misses, especially with his devastating splitter, a pitch that can catch throw hitters for a loop since only 43 of the 582 pitchers that have appeared in the big leagues this year have been recorded as throwing one (according to Pitch F/X data from Fangraphs). Junior’s walk rate, which has plagued him on occasion during his ascension to the big leagues, has been kept well under control. He has great poise and composure on the mound and has certainly carried himself as though he belongs near the front of a major league rotation.

 

It’s not altogether unreasonable to think that Juni G may improve upon his already impressive numbers, as well. Guerra has certainly followed a non-linear development path, originally signing as a catcher in 2001 and not converting to the mound until 2006 at age 21. Not only did Guerra need to learn an arsenal of pitches to come after hitters with, but he needed to find proper mechanics, had to be taught how to control the run game, how to field a new position, etc. The bulk of this development, including the addition of his split-finger to his repertoire about five years ago, took place while Junior was pitching in independent ball. Now that he’s found a foothold in the major leagues and gets to work with some of the best coaches on the planet on a daily basis, Guerra should be able to continue refining his process and improving his performance.

 

In spite of his relatively advanced age, Guerra is still a “young arm” in terms of workload, as well. Since he’s only been pitching for about 10 years, he has much less mileage on his right arm than the typical 31 year old would. According to his pitching register at Baseball-Reference, Junior has thrown less than 780 innings during his professional career, or roughly the same amount of pro innings as Wily Peralta had logged by age 23. That should no doubt bode well for Guerra’s chances to defy the typical aging curve and stave off father time while remaining effective as he enters his mid-30s.

 

Something about the 31 year old with four big league innings piqued the interest of Slingin’ David Stearns back in October, when he was claimed off waivers from the White Sox with Stearns’ first transaction as GM. Thus far, the move has paid off in spades. Guerra has ascended from waiver claim on the fringes of the big leagues to a workhorse starter that is occupying the role of #2016BrewersAce, and there is a distinct possibility that he’ll continue to improve at the major league level.

 

One never knows where exactly a team will find valuable talent, and perhaps Junior Guerra is on his way to becoming the Brewers’ version of Jake Arrieta - a buy-low pitcher who morphs into an unexpectedly dominant front-line starter.

 

 

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 07:49 AM)
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/6/23/1201...f-junior-guerra

 

There’s really no indication that Junior is going to slow down anytime soon, either. While some might point to his low .262 BABIP, fly-ball pitchers like Guerra tend to have a lower than average BABIP and he’s shown to be adept at producing an above-average amount of pop-ups. He generates plenty of swings-and-misses, especially with his devastating splitter, a pitch that can catch throw hitters for a loop since only 43 of the 582 pitchers that have appeared in the big leagues this year have been recorded as throwing one (according to Pitch F/X data from Fangraphs). Junior’s walk rate, which has plagued him on occasion during his ascension to the big leagues, has been kept well under control. He has great poise and composure on the mound and has certainly carried himself as though he belongs near the front of a major league rotation.

 

It’s not altogether unreasonable to think that Juni G may improve upon his already impressive numbers, as well. Guerra has certainly followed a non-linear development path, originally signing as a catcher in 2001 and not converting to the mound until 2006 at age 21. Not only did Guerra need to learn an arsenal of pitches to come after hitters with, but he needed to find proper mechanics, had to be taught how to control the run game, how to field a new position, etc. The bulk of this development, including the addition of his split-finger to his repertoire about five years ago, took place while Junior was pitching in independent ball. Now that he’s found a foothold in the major leagues and gets to work with some of the best coaches on the planet on a daily basis, Guerra should be able to continue refining his process and improving his performance.

 

In spite of his relatively advanced age, Guerra is still a “young arm” in terms of workload, as well. Since he’s only been pitching for about 10 years, he has much less mileage on his right arm than the typical 31 year old would. According to his pitching register at Baseball-Reference, Junior has thrown less than 780 innings during his professional career, or roughly the same amount of pro innings as Wily Peralta had logged by age 23. That should no doubt bode well for Guerra’s chances to defy the typical aging curve and stave off father time while remaining effective as he enters his mid-30s.

 

Something about the 31 year old with four big league innings piqued the interest of Slingin’ David Stearns back in October, when he was claimed off waivers from the White Sox with Stearns’ first transaction as GM. Thus far, the move has paid off in spades. Guerra has ascended from waiver claim on the fringes of the big leagues to a workhorse starter that is occupying the role of #2016BrewersAce, and there is a distinct possibility that he’ll continue to improve at the major league level.

 

One never knows where exactly a team will find valuable talent, and perhaps Junior Guerra is on his way to becoming the Brewers’ version of Jake Arrieta - a buy-low pitcher who morphs into an unexpectedly dominant front-line starter.

 

Really, no one cares about Junior Guerra. He's 30 years old and having a good year, not the first to do it. How do you think the O's feel after Arrieta's success? What about Loaiza and Contraras to the Sox? I'm sure there are many more examples that I can't think of right now, but teams miss on players all the time, and it will keep happening.

 

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 06:49 AM)
The only one on this board who would have a beef about Guerra is Feeky. Other than that, no one said anything when the Sox let him go. He will go south at some point.

 

I wonder how Dayton Moore missed on that one. He could have saved the $70 million he gave Ian Kennedy for some of his free agents.

 

 

I don't think Feeky is responsible for who stays on the White Sox 40 man roster, any more than he was responsible for scouting Quintana with the Mets and Yankees in their respective systems.

 

But, if he spotted something, more power to him. Maybe the White Sox need to sign him to a contract.

 

 

And that kind of "everyone else missed it" thing was no comfort to Cashman on Q or Contreras, nor was it to all the teams who passed on drafting Mike Trout.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 06:55 AM)
Really, no one cares about Junior Guerra. He's 30 years old and having a good year, not the first to do it. How do you think the O's feel after Arrieta's success? What about Loaiza and Contraras to the Sox? I'm sure there are many more examples that I can't think of right now, but teams miss on players all the time, and it will keep happening.

 

 

They feel like idiots, and kick themselves at least once a week.

 

The problem is when teams miss 60% of the time or more, instead of being successful hitting 50-60% of the time. Do you honestly believe that more than 50% of the moves that Hahn has executed since becoming GM were "hits"???

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 07:55 AM)
I don't think Feeky is responsible for who stays on the White Sox 40 man roster, any more than he was responsible for scouting Quintana with the Mets and Yankees in their respective systems.

 

But, if he spotted something, more power to him. Maybe the White Sox need to sign him to a contract.

 

 

And that kind of "everyone else missed it" thing was no comfort to Cashman on Q or Contreras, nor was it to all the teams who passed on drafting Mike Trout.

 

Yea, thats not what DA said. Not at all. I think you should have another celebration of your (rumored) calling of Jeff Bannister as best of everything in all of the MLB.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 07:55 AM)
I don't think Feeky is responsible for who stays on the White Sox 40 man roster, any more than he was responsible for scouting Quintana with the Mets and Yankees in their respective systems.

 

But, if he spotted something, more power to him. Maybe the White Sox need to sign him to a contract.

 

 

And that kind of "everyone else missed it" thing was no comfort to Cashman on Q or Contreras, nor was it to all the teams who passed on drafting Mike Trout.

In fact in the thread Feeky created about it this season, you said it was about 500,000 to 1 odds Junior Guerra has Jose Quintana's career.

 

Of course that is the same Jose Quintana you mentioned as a trade chip in 2012 when you were happy the White Sox re-signed Jake Peavy. You mentioned his signing frees up Quintana to go for a 3B.

 

 

Too bad you didn't mention any names, it would have been more hysterical.

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When Guerra does this for multiple seasons, then you can rip the front office. Until then, he's no different than Esteban Loazia or Philip Humber.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 10:27 AM)
White Sox roster when he took over in 2013:

 

Core

Chris Sale - pre arb

Jose Quintana - pre arb

Addison Reed - pre arb

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something via trade

Jake Peavy

Alexei Ramirez

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Carlos Sanchez

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

White Sox roster now

 

Core

Chris Sale - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Quintana - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Abreu

Adam Eaton - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Carlos Rodon

Tim Anderson

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something in a trade

Todd Frazier

Brett Lawrie

Melky Cabrera

James Shields

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Zack Collins

Carson Fulmer

Spencer Adams

Zack Burdi

Alec Hansen

Trey Michalczewski

 

Thank you.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 09:27 AM)
Veterans worth their contract and worth something in a trade

Todd Frazier

Brett Lawrie

Melky Cabrera

James Shields

...dubious.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 09:31 AM)
Thank you.

 

Robertson should definitely be added to the veterans group.

 

Jones to the core. If the Sox wanted to trade him, they'd cash in.

 

Duke and Jennings are also worth their contracts and wouldn't be free in a trade.

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QUOTE (captain54 @ Jul 3, 2016 -> 03:06 PM)
The first 5 weeks or so, the BP was stellar. Since then it's been a nightmare. If you are taking a season avg and factoring in the first 5 weeks, you aren't getting an accurate picture

 

So why is the first 5 weeks not accurate, but the next five weeks are accurate? Why is it the worst case scenario, and not something in between?

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 07:33 AM)
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/...ept-dream-alive

 

 

Where was Paddy's assessment??? Venezuela is supposed to be his first country of expertise.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/331117601.html

 

The pickup of Guerra is interesting in that he'll be 31 years old by the time the Brewers open spring training, and he was out of affiliated baseball from 2009-'14. Neither would seem to mesh with a team in the midst of a rebuild.

 

Guerra, a native Venezuelan, made a total of 31 appearances between Class AA Birmingham and Class AAA Charlotte in Chicago's system – including 11 starts. All told, he went 4-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10 with 105 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings.

 

From 2008-'14, Guerra played in the Venezuelan Winter League as well as a number of other foreign and unaffiliated leagues. He began his career in 2006 and spent that year in the system of the Atlanta Braves, then spent the 2008 season in the New York Mets' system before being suspended 50 games for PED use.

 

The White Sox signed Guerra as a free agent last October, and he went 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 15 starts in the Venezuelan Winter League.

 

You do realize that older players isn't what Paddy does for this organization, right? He is looking at the 14/15/16 year old crowd, not guys a decade older.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 09:27 AM)
White Sox roster when he took over in 2013:

 

Core

Chris Sale - pre arb

Jose Quintana - pre arb

Addison Reed - pre arb

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something via trade

Jake Peavy

Alexei Ramirez

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Carlos Sanchez

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

White Sox roster now

 

Core

Chris Sale - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Quintana - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Abreu

Adam Eaton - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Carlos Rodon

Tim Anderson

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something in a trade

Todd Frazier

Brett Lawrie

Melky Cabrera

James Shields

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Zack Collins

Carson Fulmer

Spencer Adams

Zack Burdi

Alec Hansen

Trey Michalczewski

 

:wub:

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The thing is I feel like Hahn has done a pretty good job pushing an organization that had really been left behind to at least average competence. I do feel our player development is better (and when you listen to interviews with organization it's clear people like our hitting and pitching coaches are creating top down philosophies for our new prospects), our amateur scouting is undoubtedly better.

 

But we've seemed to taken a huge step back in the one area that let us bleed along for 12 years under Kenny, our pro scouting. Even looking at Rabbits list, all of the things mentioned above have given us a wider, deeper organization closer to competing.

 

But a combination of horrid pro scouting and no overarching strategy aside from "be competitive as possible every year without breaking the bank" has led to a lot of tactical moves that have moved us backward.

 

Had we not had any of our 2015 splurge we'd be in a much better position to compete both this year and next. That Smarj package may have gone to the Reds directly for Frazier + Trayce, leaving us with a deeper infield and more pieces to acquiring more. We'd also not have butted up against our budget and allow us more flexibility to acquire in FA and Trades.

 

Now, when we are legitimately 2-3 pieces away, do not have excess financial flexibility nor prospect flexibility. Now we need to be patient, but we will not be. And we will wave good bye to 2-3 pieces that are cost-controlled for 6 years that we will then chase after with more 2-3 pieces forever and ever.

 

Hahn seems fairly sound, but he does not have the personality or sway in the organization to run the team in a direction without distractions to accelerate the process.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 08:27 AM)
White Sox roster when he took over in 2013:

 

Core

Chris Sale - pre arb

Jose Quintana - pre arb

Addison Reed - pre arb

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something via trade

Jake Peavy

Alexei Ramirez

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Carlos Sanchez

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

White Sox roster now

 

Core

Chris Sale - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Quintana - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Abreu

Adam Eaton - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Carlos Rodon

Tim Anderson

Nate Jones - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something in a trade

Todd Frazier

Brett Lawrie

Melky Cabrera

James Shields

David Robertson

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Zack Collins

Carson Fulmer

Spencer Adams

Zack Burdi

Alec Hansen

Trey Michalczewski

 

These are important things to remember when the Sox hit their next slide. We all can be guilty of overlooking these things when the losses are piling up. We're far from being "there" yet, but when you look at this post, you can see the progress that's been made. Hahn's been burned by poor scouting and poor performance by the players he brings in...but overall--you can't argue that things are looking better than that first year when Kenny passed him this ticking bomb with 3 seconds left on the clock.

 

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Core

Chris Sale - pre arb

Jose Quintana - pre arb

Addison Reed - pre arb

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something via trade

Jake Peavy

Alexei Ramirez

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Carlos Sanchez

 

Dayan Viciedo was on quite a few All-Rookie team lists and was a productive player in 2012. I also guess that Trayce Thompson, Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley, Chris Bassitt, Micah Johnson, etc., weren't in the organization at the time. Hector Santiago has mysteriously disappeared as an asset to go along with Addison Reed. Tyler Flowers statistically is better than our current catching combo when defense is factored in, and for a cheaper price. Pitch framing/pitch calling strategies have slipped with Navarro, not to mention throwing out opposing baserunners.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

White Sox roster now

 

Core

Chris Sale - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Quintana - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Jose Abreu underperforming his career WAR from 2014/15 by 125-150 points, should be DH, in ideal world

Adam Eaton - Hahn locked up on a team friendly deal

Carlos Rodon is there a single poster here who would have picked anyone else with the 3rd pick? and still not close to All-Star status, work in progress

Tim Anderson would feel a lot better if Hahn had anything to do with targeting him

Avisail Garcia

Matt Davidson

Nate Jones

 

Veterans worth their contract and worth something in a trade

Todd Frazier (I would hope he's STILL worth the equivalent of Thompson/Montas +)

Brett Lawrie

Melky Cabrera

James Shields (SURE!!! Get on the phone right now and see if someone will assume that $27 million)

 

Prospects in the top ~200 range

Zack Collins

Carson Fulmer

Spencer Adams (has gone from near the Top 100 to closer to 150-200)

Zack Burdi

Alec Hansen at some point, results/ability is trumped by performance....in 2012, this was the equivalent of Chris Beck

Trey Michalczewski (really?)

Edited by caulfield12

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This is hysterical.

 

The guy who twice said he was leaving this site until KW and/or Ventura got fired, is now so upset the Sox have won 10 of 14 and are right back in the playoff hunt, he can't leave Rick Hahn alone.

 

 

Now the organization was in good shape when Hahn became the GM. When it was the anti KW narrative, something totally different.

 

Remember when Dayton Moore seemingly invented baseball? Here is his team at when he was at a similar tenure as Hahn. 65-97.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2010.shtml

Edited by Dick Allen

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 01:59 PM)
This is hysterical.

 

The guy who twice said he was leaving this site until KW and/or Ventura got fired, is now so upset the Sox have won 10 of 14 and are right back in the playoff hunt, he can't leave Rick Hahn alone.

 

 

Now the organization was in good shape when Hahn became the GM. When it was the anti KW narrative, something totally different.

 

Always need a scapegoat.

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You're right, you are such a great fan...so you're in favor of giving both of them 3 year extensions RIGHT NOW for the great work they've both done so far, yes?

 

And Ventura's HoF plaque is surely on its way, as soon as he leaves the White Sox, that is.

 

PS: Please PM the 38 who don't think the White Sox will make the playoffs and call them out for being "bad fans," that should keep you occupied.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 02:05 PM)
You're right, you are such a great fan...so you're in favor of giving both of them 3 year extensions RIGHT NOW for the great work they've both done so far, yes?

 

And Ventura's HoF plaque is surely on its way, as soon as he leaves the White Sox, that is.

 

PS: Please PM the 38 who don't think the White Sox will make the playoffs and call them out for being "bad fans," that should keep you occupied.

 

you are posting like 4 posts for every 1 other member posts, and honestly your points are so scatterbrained and contradicting from one post to the next(and sometimes within the same post)that nobody can help but notice how overwhelming your presence is. And I agree with Dick(dont tell him), the Sox start winning again and all you want to do is tell everyone that they suck pretty much every chance you get.

 

You need to re f***ing lax

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 02:05 PM)
You're right, you are such a great fan...so you're in favor of giving both of them 3 year extensions RIGHT NOW for the great work they've both done so far, yes?

 

And Ventura's HoF plaque is surely on its way, as soon as he leaves the White Sox, that is.

 

PS: Please PM the 38 who don't think the White Sox will make the playoffs and call them out for being "bad fans," that should keep you occupied.

LOL

 

 

It's pretty clear you aren't a Sox fan. There can't be anyone on this site who really thinks if the Sox were playing Cleveland or KC you wouldn't be pulling for the White Sox to get swept.

 

So again, to be a bad Sox fan, you actually have to be a Sox fan. You are not. Whining, whining, more whining, making ridiculous arguments (Tom Gorzalanny, really?). You are melting just as predicted if the Sox played well.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 5, 2016 -> 01:53 PM)
Prospects in the top ~200 range

Zack Collins

Carson Fulmer

Spencer Adams (has gone from near the Top 100 to closer to 150-200)

Zack Burdi

Alec Hansen at some point, results/ability is trumped by performance....in 2012, this was the equivalent of Chris Beck

Trey Michalczewski (really?)

 

So Alec Hansen is a bust already? Lol

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Ok, I don't do this often.

 

DA and Caulfield, I recommend you guys both download League of Legends and fight 1 v 1.

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