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Taking articles, parsing them and coming up with the most negative outcome based on what you see is not a most likely outcome. Read up on what they said about Chris Sale when he was drafted also known as the closer we drafted.

There are related studies in Baseball Between the Numbers and The Book, two awesome books that broke a lot of OG sabermetric studies that form the basis of much that's still used today. Unfortunately, the articles from both books aren't available for free online. I own and have read both of these --they're fascinating reads to this day, even though many of the concepts have been improved on since their release. In short, the basis for the use of walks/strikeouts/homeruns came from studies performed by Voros McCracken that showed those rates as stable predictors of their own future values in later years, whereas ERA (and most other commonly used stats) were not. I don't remember off the top of my head how they accurately scaled FIP to ERA, but the end result was the FIP predicts future ERA better than ERA predicts future ERA. Now, the important distinction here is that this is only going to hold true if the relevant rates (walks/strikeouts/homeruns) hold steady. So the statement "his performance suggests he will regress" is less accurate than the statement "if he continues to pitch as he has been pitching, his performance suggests he will regress." In other words, if you think that Reynaldo Lopez will improve/refine his command and thus strike more guys out/walk fewer guys/continue to repress homeruns going forward, you may not believe that will regress. But it IS accurate to suggest that he has not shown the characteristics of a sub-3 ERA pitcher so far.

New Jersey won its case to legalize sports betting, now its up to the other states to decide if they want to legalize it.

The only guy who was super negative on Sale was Law. Callis had him as the 4th best player in the draft and had him mocked at 4th overall in MLB pipeline's 2010 draft preview. Most were shocked he fell to the Sox. This is revisionist history. Law despised Sale and was wrong. I just said people can be wrong. It happens all of the time. Nobody is infallible. If people were infallible, the world would be a boring place. Just because Law was loud and outspoken about his opinion on Sale, doesn't mean it was the consensus.

Mark Buehrle was a great defender as a pitcher and that was how he consistently outperformed his FIP. Someone, I think Fangraphs, wrote a whole article about how Buehrle defied logic by outperforming his FIP by a full run throughout his career. They concluded that his great defense and excellent pickoff move were the culprits for this, and said that any pitcher that had those traits moving forward would also likely outperform their FIP. You don't discount a statistical analysis because of outliers. Statistical analysis doesn't look at outliers for that exact reason: they don't come along often and will skew the data.

ERA is predictive, just less predictive than FIP or xFIP.

Find it sickening that some people think Charlie Blackmon was the first one to use it. He stole it from Beckham. That said, if he was a bigger star...

I have been watching the games and Shields has been probably the best guy on the staff objectively. Still scary. If Shields could fix his 1st inning bugaboo, he'd probably have decent stats too.

Let me put it this way, we weren't winning 80 games with Sale, Eaton, Quintana, Jennings, and Robertson all at peak performances. There is no way that steaming pile wins 90 to 95.

Davidson went from being a HR or bust hitter who never walked and struck out a ton, and then 6 months later, he's a smart hitter, can go to the opposite field, still hit a ton of homers, walk a decent amount and strike out much less. To me, that's unbelievable for a guy that a lot of us assumed was a rebuild filler and would never reach the potential he once had.

I know why I love baseball, to count the amount of people watching it next to me.

I will never own a gun. That's my choice. That said; I will never say as an absolute that no one should own guns. There are parts of this country where guns are important for personal protection; such as for rural home owners. And, they can be a tool to be used by a farmer/business owner to protect their livelihoods. My issue has always been that there are areas in this country where people believe that they should own guns (via 2nd amendment interpretation), but really are never going to need them. Those guns can put people (especially children) at risk of accidental death or injury because the owners of them are not responsible. They don't make the effort to keep others safe by having their guns safely stored and by being up to date on their ability to shoot those guns.

It shouldnt effect him too much while hes young. He will have some soreness and swelling but it should be manageable, depending on fhe size of the defect. He will start to have issues earlier than most people with arthritis type issues though.

Soxfan not trying to duck your question ... I'd need to see the list. Moose for sure. How's Cain doing this year? He mita been OK for 2 year deal. If I come back for a game should I make public where my seats are? Would any Soxtalkers venture over to see the gregster?

I can't believe this lousy Sox team went 1-2 vs. the Cubs. You get that one win it looks a lot different than the expected 0-3. We still stink but Davidson is a god, small g. Glad he went with Rondon to close. Soria obviously would have had no chance. Since I am apt to blast Ricky and the team a lot, I'll offer praise tonight. I couldn't bring myself to watch any of the game, though. Waited for the highlights.

So, basically, your theory is that if everyone sucks, they are in trouble? Got it.

While you and Heidi Klum snuggle in the owners box. What a wonderful life.

Lol...he’s getting the full ensemble!

Clinched double digit wins for the season, was getting a little worried there.

Thread title is wrong ?

Fuck that.

I have been waiting for this to happen for way too long.

Went to the game yesterday. What a different team that was. The best part about yesterday was witnessing a dominating Gio performance, minus the walks, and Davidson going yard. Also loved the double switch with Leury and he makes a great play in right then drives in a run right away. Nice to see a Sox win at Wrigley. Also my wife's first game where the Sox win. Great day all around.