Wedge

Hypothesis: Wise is another way to spell Timo.

As a Sox fan I'm pretty happy: the Indians are giving up on 2010 and I don't think they got a very good return for Cliff Lee.

QUOTE (Felix @ Apr 20, 2009 -> 08:24 PM) None of this is meant to take anything away from Floyd, who is a good pitcher, but he's not the same class as John Danks. Can we simply be happy that we're debating whether 24 year old lefty who went 12-9, 195 IP, 3.32 ERA, 159 Ks is better than a 26 year old righty that went 17-8, 3.84 ERA, 145 Ks and that both are off to great starts this year? It'd be like a Lakers fan debating whether Magic, Kobe, or Kareem was the best.

We're putting the band back together Together? No way... We're on a mission from God

Not to respark the "who got the better end of the deal" but I got into this discussion with a buddy of mine (Philly fan) over the weekend. That led me to look up some articles. Some interesting facts: 1) After 5-10 years, about 44% of first round picks are out of the league entirely for one reason for another [1]. Almost 50% are starters at that point and 40% make a pro bowl. Thus, it's as likely that a first round pick busts out as they have a pro bowl season. 2) From 1992-2001, 19 quarterbacks were taken with a first round pick [2]. In a rough ranking of productivity with their drafting team from best to worst they are: Peyton Manning, McNabb, Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Culpepper, Vick, Pennington, Mirer (Seahawks, this high since he got them the walter jones pick back), Dave Brown (Giants), Kerry Collins (Panthers), Trent Dilfer (Bucs), Drunkenmiller, David Klinger (Bengals), Heath Shuler (Redskins), Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Maddox (Broncos), Leaf. I think you can safely say that 12/19 (63%) busted with their original team. Of that list, Manning and McNabb made the Pro Bowl twice in their first three years. Bledsoe, Culpepper, and Vick all made it once in their first three years. So over that period, 5/19 (26%) had a first three years close to Cutler's. I don't think there is any question of Cutler's ability. I think his only chance of "busting" in Chicago is the "head case scenario" (doesn't mesh with the city, staff, organization, etc). I think that at worst that's 5% likely. Oh, and 5% for a very bad, career altering injury. The other 90% is that he varies from an above average to pro-bowl quality QB for a 5-6 year period. Based on the above information, here is how I see the trade scenario. I will, for sake of argument, assume the Broncos use the two Bears draft picks to select a QB and a player at a different position. Ways the Broncos win: 1) Cutler busts AND they get at least one starting quality player out of the two draft picks. Based on the above math, this is ~8% (10%*(100%-50%*36%)) likely. 2) Cutler does not bust AND the Broncos get at least a starting quality QB AND the Broncos get a pro bowl quality player ~14% (90%*36%*44%). Ways the Broncos and Bears tie: 1) Cutler does not bust AND the Broncos get a pro-bowl quality QB AND the Broncos other pick busts ~14% (90%*32%*44%). You could also argue this to be a win for the Bears, since they get the pro-bowl quality QB immediate and the Broncos will have to develop him. 2) Cutler does not bust AND the Broncos get a starting quality QB and other player ~0.5% (90%*5%*10%) 3) Cutler busts AND the Broncos two picks bust ~3% (10%*63%*44%). Ways the Bears win: 1) Cutler does not bust AND the Broncos draft a bust QB ~58% (90%*63%). 2) Cutler does not bust AND the Broncos pick a starter level QB and their other pick busts ~2% (90%*5%*44%). Obviously the math is a b**** rough since the probabilities are estimated, but when you weigh the likely outcomes I think it points that the most likely scenario is that the Bears come out ahead. [1] http://bleacherreport.com/articles/74206-w...dds-for-success [2] http://sports.espn.go.com/nfldraft/story?id=1539344

Where's the clutch one, Timo?

If Anderson could bring a Juan Uribe caliber bat to CF, I think I'd be happy.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jan 15, 2009 -> 02:39 PM) colon vs. CR/AP Do you mean crap vs. crap?

Dare I ask what the song is?

Does anybody else think this game could determine Javy's future with the White Sox? If he s***s the bed I could see the team shopping him hard in the offseason. If he does super great, it's a feel good situation and he stays.

HE IS THE MAN!

As long as Griffey is in, Wise has to play since Wise has the speed in outfield to cover for Griffey.

Must be nice to have a shortstop

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Aug 13, 2008 -> 11:31 PM) If the Sox call up Poreda on September 1st, and he stays on until the 30th, does his clock start? As far as I understand, the clock starts if you're on the 25 man roster from April through Sept 1st or if you're on the expanded roster after Sept 1st.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 11, 2008 -> 07:19 PM) with barack and kanye we're making a sudden run at the celeb fan list. too bad we lost one in Bernie recently, however. I thought Bernie was bandwagon Chicago. I thought he was at some of the Cubs playoff games.

Twins up 2-0.

QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Aug 11, 2008 -> 06:28 PM) 6 up 6 down for Danks....anyone get the feeling this is gonna be a 2-1 type game tonight? Both pitchers look great early. not with these bullpens...

that ball went into outer space. holy hell

Maybe Ozzie gave Boone an opportunity to prove he's worth a s***? That's a nicer way to look at it.

For those of us who don't follow the minors, who is Poreda?

Does this mean we won't be seeing Jerry Owens in centerfield?

QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Jul 30, 2008 -> 07:49 PM) I really like Swisher, but man I'd prefere Ryan Sweeney out there. Actually I would've prefered Torii Hunter but that didn't happen. Hunter's contract will look very, very bad in two years.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Jul 29, 2008 -> 09:36 PM) Fact With the way the Sox have played the last two games, it's clear this season is long over. At that rate, they'll lose the division by 30 games!

I've forgotten, is this the last season of the TwinkieDome?

my beacon of hope is how the Twins fared the last time they came to the Cell.