QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 08:12 AM)
A different take on an offseason thread that I hope will invite some thoughtful responses.
The rules: First name three moves the Sox absolutely need to MAKE this offseason, then name three moves the Sox absolutely need to AVOID this offseason. To wit:
Three YEPS:
1. Sign Russell Martin at anything up to 4yr/$60m -- He will NOT ever be as good at the plate as he was this year, but that's okay because he was a MONSTER this year and doesn't need to be to make the deal worth it. He has a career high 145 wRC+ this season, but all we need from him is about 100, and his career line is 106. THat would make him an elite defender with a league average bat who also happens to bring Veteran Leadership to the table. Even if his bat begins to decline immediately, game-calling and pitch-framing tend to improve with experience, and having that kind of glove back there witha bat that doesn't kill you is worth its weight in blood diamonds.
Admittedly, this was a much more attractive option when I first started clamoring for it midseason before the national media caught the scent, and he's going to be expensive as a result, but when you take a look around at the free agent classes of the next couple years and try to find ones that are going to pay dividends both immediately AND going forward, this is one of the few that jump out. And if paying Martin $14m a year is your big money acquisition, you're not really risking much, especially with our current payroll commitments being so low.
2. Trade Alexei Ramirez, probably to the Yankees -- I love Alexei. I really do. I have bragged about Alexei being the most underrated player in the game to all my friends for about four years now. But there are two reasons that it's time to move on: (1) he will be 33 years old, meaning that his defense will most likely decline as soon as next season, meaning that he will NOT be the player he is today when we need him the most a couple years down the line, and (2) we have a glut of MI prospects in the advanced levels of our minors, all of whom need a shot to stick at the majors. It is the position we are best able to fill with AT LEAST a stopgap. The market will be ripe this offseason as several big names will be looking for a SS, most notably the Yankees (who not only want a SS, but also one that will be an immediate contributor but won't require a long-term commitment, which is EXACTLY what Alexei is), who just happen to have a bunch of extra decent catching prospects laying around, which just happens to be exactly what our system needs. Even if none of the guys in the minor can cut it at SS, we have Leury, who can hold the position down admirably on defense until Tim Anderson or whoever is ready.
Alexei is great, but he's not likely to be a part of our next contender, so it's time to move him while he has value and we have the in-house candidates to replace him.
3. Acquire TWO corner outfielders -- It is time for Dayan Vicedo to go. I have always, ALWAYS been down on Viciedo and have always been willing to go down in flames if he broke out. Remember when I agreed you guys could stone me if he was good? Well he's not. He sucks. He has to go. "But Eminor, he hit a few homers the other day!" Yeah, look at his line this year: .231/.281/.405 with 21 HR (87 wRC+). "But Eminor, right-handed power is at a premium!" Yeah, but when you do everything else like a minor league utility player (except defense, which you do like Carlos Lee), you do more harm than good. Just for reference, 87 wRC+ is 13% below league average, and is exactly equal to the average MLB shortstop. We should give him to Seattle or something for anything in return.
But he should be replaced with TWO OFs, at least one of which needs to be left-handed. What this does is make our team more like Oakland in that it will allow us to play match-ups like crazy. THIS is what the rotating DH should look like: four starting outfielders, and extra starting caliber corner infielder, mixed handedness, use DH to make sure the best/hottest guys are in the lineup every night, maximizing platoon advantage and ensuring good health. Giving Abreu some days off, too.
I think we sign one (maybe a mid-tier guy, maybe a reclamation. Probably not Markakis even though he makes sense in every way except price) and trade for another. Another guy like Eaton would be ideal but let's not kid ourselves. If we spend more on the FA, maybe the trade is for the reclamation guy. Dominic Brown? I don't know, but we need two.
Three NOPES:
1. Do NOT sign James Shields -- He has been a great pitcher, had a cool career, he's eaten us up, I get it. But he's going to be 33 and is already experiencing the effects of a natural decline. His velocity is down and he's now relying much more on contact than before, which has kept his K/BB rates good, but cannot go on forever. Also, it's risky because you rely more on BABIP luck and good defense to get by. Shileds would be good next year, but already worse than this year, and it'll keep going downhill as his velocity goes. Given what he's going to cost (I'm guessing roughly 5yr/$100m plus a draft pick), we just are not ready to mortgage our future for 2015. It's just the wrong time, both for us and him.
2. Do NOT sign Victor Martinez -- This dude is about to get PAID. He's also really old, really injury prone, and really REALLY unlikely ever to touch what he did this year again. I'm not saying he's going to be useless, but guys at his age are one knee injury from becoming bums (see Carlos Beltran), and even if he stays healthy, you're not going to get that value back to justify the cost of what this season si about to earn him. He may be in line for 3yr/$60m. Also, locking up the DH spot with a one-dimensional player takes away our ability to do my rotating DH/platoon OF thing. This is money that can go toward Russell Martin!
3. Do NOT alter the pitching plan -- It didn't work out this year. With the exception of Noesi, all of our bullpen and rotation upside plays busted. That is NOT likely to happen again. It's a process that has worked wonders for several franchises in our position. We need to do a better job of selecting them, but the plan is sound. Do not let Felipe Paulino cloud your judgement, Hahn. Continue to leverage your pitching development staff, continue to find assets that can be moved if necessary, continue to find assets that don't block anyone, and continue to fish for upside.
I like the trade Alexei part , though if you rid the Sox of Viciedo and Alexei . Abreu has no countrymen except Nieto who is most likely in the minors next year. Probably won't matter much to a hitter like Abreu but it's something to discuss. Alexei's coming off a good season and the time to trade him is now. Leury at SS though, yuckie ! Remember Jose Inglesias is coming back from injury next year ( http://www.sportsoverdose.com/mlb-players/jose-iglesias ) and that Suarez kid has looked pretty damn good at SS for the Tigers. Too bad its inter-division but Tigers might be willing to move one or the other now that Suarez has held his own.
Not sure about the Russell Martin thing meaning highly doubtful we get him since so many other teams have deeper pockets and catching is at such a premium. Is this a career year for Flowers or has all the studying he's done of great hitters paid off into a league average catcher , which frankly, would be fine with me because...
We need more a few more good relief pitchers. Is that altering the pitching plan ? Bottom feeding for pitchers isn't what I'd call a plan if you want to compete. Maybe Erik Johnson can rebound as a starter or try him in the pen. But Sox do have some great arms in the system but arrival time is so crucial when you have guys like Sale and Abreu . Can't wait too long .
I was wondering what teams have benefited from that approach ? Maybe the Cubs come to mind but I'd like some from the AL because ,frankly , it's a different game in the NL . I'm always leery of getting NL pitchers.
I wanted Ellsbury last year but I do like Sierra. The guy is a tool shed. Seems great ( or annoying depending how you respond to his love) in the dugout and has played well for the Sox . Sort of suffered since trying to build Viciedo's value. The Sox rebuild really suffered a big blow this year despite several guys like Abreu, Eaton and, Gillaspie all emerging but about 8 guys you wanted to see emerge sucking or getting injured. I'd like Saunders from the Mariners and hopefully they are willing to move him if they still want Viciedo ( ha right) .
If the Sox do want to compete next year then a bat like VMart is a must. Again will probably be outbid but his numbers are astounding. How fast could he really fall off ? I think Abreu could deal with losing his Cuban countrymen if he had VMART next to him in the lineup. Try pitching around Abreu now suckers ! You get to face VMArt instead of Conor or Avi. If no VMart then the Sox seem to be putting a lot of weight that your favorite ( ) Avi Garcia will produce and/ or improve the defense and relief pitching a lot , which then might preclude trading Alexei. Of course we would need another quality starter then also.
A lot of directions this can go. The 1st major trade or signing will point us to what Hahn has in mind .