CaliSoxFanViaSWside

He'd be very sleepy.

I knew both fangraphs and MLBTR had him taking a 1 yr pillow deal . I tried to take that into consideration because it just may be the best plan for him to get a higher contract if he can regain his mojo. However if he prefers the security of at close to $50M he may bite unless interest that Boras says exists is true. Teams could be trying to get him cheap for all we know . So I kind of settled in a place that could be tempting for him.

Those were the 2 guys talked about a lot at the trade deadline . I know I talked up Gallo but when someone asked me if I'd take Marte I said I'd be more than happy with him.

Supposedly there's a lot of interest in him. Plus I haven't checked to see if any Boras guys signed yet. C. Seager and Semien are the one rumored to want to sign before Dec. 1.

Yup I thought of that and basically forgot to put it in my post . He was clearly the best CF on the market .

I actually like it. Mets overpayed some considering Marte is 33 but he had his best season ,played well in both leagues and has tremendous instincts on the bases. I'm not sure it can translate to what Conforto's contract might be given the difference in age and power and career best year for SM and career worst for Conforto but I'll give it a shot. 3/$48M

From what I read he also had hamstring problems where he missed a month early in the season and then some time with "leg fatigue" in July . So problems with his lower half could've led to hitting issues. Pretty high GB rate but it's always been high even in his good years. Line drive rate was way down so there's the difference. . Nido is a very good defensive catcher and McNeil pretty fluid LH 2nd baseman. I guess the Sox weren't the only team with hammy issues since most here are saying Conforto's issues hitting are tied to his hammy too (although more shifting on Conforto is definitely a thing.)

I'd take McNeil and Tomas Nido. Kimbrel and Seby go to Mets.

Well it's mostly from the past where the Sox lagged behind it appeared in scouting , development ,analytics . And when that stuff should 've been fixed before they started the rebuild it was supposedly fixed during the rebuild. It didn't help that Semein and Tatis were given away . Also didnt help that the Sox were trading away IFA money, have yet to find a Dominican star through that process which has been around a while with the most talent coming from the DR. Wilder scandal. And they also were kind of late to the party that middle infielders were gold while drafting catchers and 1st baseman. Who exactly is the last starting pitcher drafted by the Sox with a high draft choice who had any sustained success ? They also didn't produce much of anything during the draft from the bad rebuild years . They tanked but didn't tank quite badly enough to get higher draft picks. One of them was given away (Madrigal). What's the failure there? They draft him 4th overall ,then think they made a mistake, so gave him away for nothing ? Then there's the whole Machado friends and family waste of money . Then there was the guy who said Collins would've been drafted 1-1 if the Sox had the first pick who has since been replaced. I'm probably forgetting some like TLR being signed by JR basically while many think TLR has more input into decision making than Hahn. @bmags Recently posted a list of good draft choices around baseball that the Sox passed on in some early rounds . I know what a crap shoot the draft is but how is it that the Dodgers always find better draft picks than the Sox picking later or find guys like Muncy and Taylor when the Sox can't ,not even during a rebuild when you can pour more resources into scouting and development and analytics . You have to have a long memory . You just can't remember the successes and think everything is OK and keep buying into JR being some kind of magnanimous owner. It's alleged by a former GM of the Marlins that JR supposedly said his best advice was to finish in second place and keep dangling the carrot. Now some people would argue to death about any or all these things but there's enough of a track record of discord to think Jerry runs things his way and it hasn't turned out all that good many many times.

Seems eerily quiet right now.

Do we see a calm before the storm kind of weekend ?

Yep I have also mentioned coming back to Carlos a few times already. it may not happen but I think he'll be in the mix.

Happy Turkey day to all .

To be clear most of what I am saying is paraphrasing what Ben Clemens of Fangraphs said about Conforto and his market .He went into more detail regarding his hammy and bout with Covid .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ scroll down to #22 . I think the Sox might be willing to splurge on 1 high end deal but expecting 2 seems a little over the top for the sake of payroll flexibility. @Chicago White Sox has the Sox spending close to $200M on a 4 yr. Conforto deal and 5 yr Gausman deal added to the $24M 3 yr deal for Graveman. That's $220M which seems a bit optimistic. Maybe it's closer to $150M or less with a major trade (not counting dumping Kimbrels and Keuchel contracts as major trades unless more pieces are involved ).

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR. I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $15M with another $5M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based on production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout. I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors. If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

Oh I know was just using this for my own edification and for some more info for you and for those who didn't want to look it up but continue to harass you about it and try to tell you how upset you are and insult you because you refused to kowtow to them specifically SS2K (Mr.Feelings).

Nope UZR150 I looked up was in RF according to fangraphs where I found it under advanced fielding where they break it down by position. DRS is fieldingbible.com and I clicked on the position as RF when i looked up Conforto's numbers and clicked on LF when I looked at Schwarber's. As far as I can tell Conforto didnt play any CF in 2021and hasn't played CF at all since 2019.

I'm the one who originally asked for your source and like a big boy I looked it up myself. Mr . Feelings is doing what he always does. All commenters had to do is their own work . That being said Schwarber played LF and Conforto played RF so you can't project what Schwarber would do in RF . OAA has Schwarber a -6 in LF and Conforto a +1. OAA is Outs Above Average. Edge Conforto by a large margin DRS : Schwarber -5 , Conforto -4 Defensive Runs Saved . Edge Conforto. Usally bad OF's get worse the more innings they play so if Schwarber had as many innings as Conforto he is likely slightly worse than the -5. UZR150 : Schwarber - 6.3 ,Conforto -6.8. Edge Schwarber but again the innings could make a difference. Schwarber played 724 innings in LF, Conforto 956 in RF Conforto had the best 3 yrs of his career from 2017-2019 Schwarbers best 3 yrs are slightly more recent 2018 ,19,21 Conforto's best years are better than Schwarbers best years. Schwarber worst year with over 450PA was 2017. Conforto's worst season 2021.

I'm not a sage when it comes to determining player value. I'd like to know from anyone better at it what they think of the Value section at the very bottom of a player's page on Fangraphs under the Dollars portion. Dollars is described as "WAR converted to dollars based on what a player would make in Free Agency". I assume the number is the worth in millions. According to that info here is what I saw for the 2021 season. Conforto: $6.5 which is the worst of his career. Also the worst defense of his career. RAR Runs Above Replacement (batting + base running + fielding + positional + replacement) 8.1 Vaughn: $2.4 3.0 RAR 127 games, 469 PA Burger $2.5 RAR 3.1 . 15 games, 42 PA Sheets: $3.4 , 4.2 RAR , 54 games ,179 PA Eloy Jimenez: $1.9 , RAR 2.4 , 55 games 231 PA. Eloy had a .8 WAR in his 1st 13 games back after injury and finished the season at .2. Those last 32 games hurt the Sox bad. Edited to include him. Madrigal : $10.7 All positive numbers across the board for batting, base running, and fielding. 13.7 RAR Scwarber: $24.5 30.6 RAR basically his hitting value more than cancelled out his negative values in other things but his fielding didn't look so terrible in LF. Much like Vaughn will always be negative but negative passable . RF for both highly questionable. Escobar : $23.9 29.8 RAR all positive numbers, 3rd best of his career all coming in his last 3 full season, not counting Covid year. Segura: $19.8 24.6 RAR 5th highest value of his career which shows you his consistency. Gavin Lux : $8.3 10.3 RAR Tony Kemp: $21.7 RAR 27.1 No history of anything remotely close to these numbers. Madrigal size and 30 yo. Bryan Reynolds : $43.8 , RAR 54.6 to give you some perspective we have.. Bryce Harper : $53.0 , RAR 66.1

Can you enlighten us to which defensive metric you used to determine this ? Defensive stats are a mishmash where one can draw multiple conclusions from UZR,DRS and OAA. Schwarber threw out a lot of base runners and looks OK on paper because of that, the same way Adam Eaton once did. Also kicking around a few hits will hurt bad in a SSS, while if you don't kick them and catch all the fly balls you get near can hide the fact you get poor reads and jumps and have no range. Someone with good speed and a good jump may not take the best routes because he's off with the crack of the bat and may have to adjust his route on the way. Grading OF defense is difficult. I prefer a good range factor and OAA when it comes to defense.

The Dodgers are loaded with LH position players with varying degrees of worth and versatility Lux, Beaty, McKinstry, Outman (AA), Carson Taylor (Bats: S, A+) One thing I notice about the Dodgers and I have no idea if it's part of their philosophy or if it's just my imagination, they seem to draft a lot of LH position players. To me this makes a lot of sense . With so many RH pitchers you are likely to get more value in later round draft picks who are LH. They adjust to the minors quicker and put up better numbers facing RHP.

Well there are people who aren't expecting much of a return for Kimbrel. There are those who think that getting the whole salary off the books is just as important which could've been accomplished by declining his option. If you get the whole salary off the books and get table scraps some see it as a win. If you trade him for equal salary it's a loss if you don't get a good fit when there are other needs. I think the Sox end up making a bigger trade and add pieces to the Kimbrel trade . As an example maybe it's true the Dodgers want him . Who from the Dodgers could be a good fit for the Sox. ? Gavin Lux : LH, turned 24 yesterday. Primarily a SS/2B who played all 3 OF positions and 3B with a good walk rate. Might be slated to be the new Chris Taylor with the Dodgers. He's yet to find his stride as a hitter . He was a 1st round pick in 2016. 5 yrs of eligibility left. Matt Beaty : LH,1B,3B,LF,RF,29 in April 120games, 234 PA , 7 HR 114wRC+ .8 fWAR 1MILB option Zach McKinstry : LH, 26, played RF,2nd, LF, 3rd in 60 games, -.5fWAR ,1MiLB option There are more of course but those 3 offer a variety of positions and all bat LH.

Ha just proves you think about the Cubs a lot more than I do.

I've thought all along that Rodon is the starting pitcher most likely to end up on the Sox.

It seems to me that anyone who has signed early is getting more then expected. Verlander, Graveman, Matz , Loup, DeSclafani and Syndergaard all higher than Fangraphs estimates.