Everything posted by Dick Allen
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James Shields
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 7, 2015 -> 05:05 PM) There's another ingredient though - how many Chris Sales were there in 2005? The number of incredible pitchers seems to have surged over the past 5 years to a level that we haven't seen before (maybe in no small part based on the effectiveness of TJS and pitchers willingness to push themselves to it?) So you are saying despite that being the era of Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, and Johan Santana in his prime and Roger Clemens, there are so many more great pitchers that would add 7000 strikeouts a season? If you really thimpnk it is pitchers and not approaches, next time MLB Network shows a game from the 80s watch it. You will see a huge difference. In the steroid era when hitting 30 homers was no big deal, striking out wasn't as big of a deal. You have to manufacture runs now. Fanning kills that.
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James Shields
QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 7, 2015 -> 11:51 AM) Or, ya know... pitching is in a dominant era right now? Why are you putting all the onus on the hitter? Trends like this have happened for as long as baseball has existed. Not like this one. 7000 more strikeouts in 2014 than 2005. It was the era that de-emphsized contact and changing the approach with 2 strikes. Now that the ball and players aren't as juiced, it had really changed the game. I don"t think Mike Trout needs to choke up with 2 strikes, but Barry Bonds all roided up choked up. It is the one thing in sabermetrics I will never understand. Strikeout as a hitter meant very little, your strikeout rate as a pitcher drops or rises, big news. Guys who hit 4 homers strike out 140 times. jason Giambi led the AL in strikeouts with 140 in 2003. Batting average with strikeouts is .000. If you put the ball in play, on average there is a 30% chance you will get a hit.
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James Shields
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 09:41 PM) All of that is factored into linear weights averages. All of the things you mentioned are salient points, but they can all also be counted and their impacts averaged. Further, they've run year-to-year correlations to find out which factors are consistent and which act as randomness, allowing them to assign credit to players with repeatable skills and treat players who have exhibited non-repeatable "skills" as regression candidates, both positive and negative. Anyone who doesn't understand how linear weights work in baseball statistics should refer to Tom Tango's research from the early part of the 21st century -- it forms the foundation for how sabermetrics treats offense (at the plate, not the basepaths), and I've never seen even the most ardent traditionalists even try to put together a coherent argument against it. There's a ton of stuff in sabermetrics that is shaky, but this is not one of those things. And I think if you look into it, you'll agree. It makes a ton of sense. Regarding the bolded: You're right, but no one is arguing otherwise. The whole point though is that all else ISN'T equal in the cases we're referring to. As wite and I both said: there's no doubt that strikeouts contribute negatively toward offensive output (although it's less negatively than common sense suggests because of double plays), but strikeouts are only a component of offensive output, and we can just look at offensive output as a whole. People get too caught up in one component of hitting at a time as if we can't just look at how many runs a guy produces. And you can do that with both traditional and advanced stats. I hate the RBI stat, but even if you love it, you can look at RBI and see that Mike Trout drives in a whole bunch of runs DESPITE the fact that he strikes out. The strikeouts affect that number, but why wouldn't you just judge him based on the runs he produces? The K's are baked in there. If a guy is 20% above average at the plate but strikes out a bunch, he;s still 20% above average at the plate. DP arguments about strikeouts are beyond lame. If you hit the ball there are no strike em out, throw em outs either. Strikeouts are fine if you are Mike Trout. They are not fine when you fan 140 times and have an OPS under .700, which there were several in 2014, including Flowers. I think there were 36 players that fanned over 100 times and had an OPS under .700. If you cannot hit, at least move runners around some other way. No one freaks out at run producers fanning. Its the ither guys. 100 strikeouts in a season used to be embarrassing, now 4 guys a team on average reach that level and far beyond. Strikeouts are way up, runs are down. Hit the ball.Some of those will become hits. Some will become errors. Some will be iuts that don't make a difference. Some will become walks as you foul off a tough pitch or 2. Some will be double plays but not nearly enough to offset the good that can happen if you just hit the ball.
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Farewell to Dayan Viciedo
QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 7, 2015 -> 09:38 AM) baseball has been very very good to Diane V. how much has he made in the last 4 or 5 years? More than enough to go back to Havana and sit on his front porch and eat tacos and get big and fat and live like a king. thanks, douglas Happy Birthday Douglas. Thanks, Dick.
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Help! Pro baseball player search
If it isn't in Baseball Reference, he either played under another name or didn't play with an affiliated team.
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Jose Abreu predictions for 2015!
QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 01:33 PM) I think the combination of never getting any rest and pitchers doing different things with him in the 2nd half really wore down his power numbers. If Robin doesn't try to kill him again this year (and conveniently we have a DH who also plays 1b!) I think there's a good chance he snaps out something like a mix of the two halves - higher average than the first half but maybe similar power levels. I think he hits 40 this year, barring injury. He played 145 games. Started 144. 35 as a DH. 109 as a 1B. If that is a manager trying to kill a player, the White Sox are going to need at least 50 or 60 players to play your style of ball.
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Buddy Bell on mlb now
QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 01:34 AM) Double-A will present a greater challenge for the 21-year-old outfielder — at that level, “you better know your swing,” Capra said — but if he’s able to pass the tests in Birmingham, it’ll be at that point he can finally start thinking about making his major league debut. “They have a plan,” Hawkins said. “Whatever their plan is, we gotta go along with it. We gotta buy into it. We gotta trust into it and go with it.” Not sure we should be in love with that quote...but being optimistic/hopeful. www.csnchicago.com I think a lot has to go right for Hawkins to be anywhere near the player many of thought he had a chance to be coming into 2013. I doubt he is any better than Viciedo offensively. Probably much worse.
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James Shields
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 09:08 AM) Clayton Kershaw hasn't been good in the last two postseasons either. Are you going to tell me he hasn't pitched well recently as a result of that as well? He doesn't like to pitch when he isn't getting paid.
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Jonah Keri's Worst Contracts in Baseball
QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 08:53 AM) http://grantland.com/features/worst-mlb-co...prince-fielder/ Included: A number of guys brought up as Soxtalk offseason targets at one point or another (Edwin Jackson, Andre Ethier, Joshn Hamilton, Ryan Howard). Not included: John Danks or any other White Sox. I would take any of these guys before Prince Fielder, for the record. Thanks Rangers! If the Cubs cut EJax, I have the feeling the Sox would be interested.
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Victor Martinez tears meniscus
I think a lot depends on how torn it its. Ron Artest missed 12 days.
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James Shields
QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 01:16 AM) Makes too much sense. If that's his home why wouldn't he sign there? He's got all the money he'll ever need. Sign his 4 year 60 million dollar deal and be done with it. While I don't blame any player for taking the biggest offer. I am with you. Unless there is a significant difference with contracts, this is pretty much a no brainer. People gave ARod grief for taking the highest offer when he was a free agent. But when it's $100 million higher, I don't see how you criticize a guy from walking away from that.
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2015 AL Central Thread
QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 5, 2015 -> 02:29 PM) Perez turned 22 while rehabbing. Martinez is 36. FYI, if you Google Victor Martinez, it's the same as Jay Cutler, a massive bodybuilder appears. Perez had his surgery a month later, and had to have his knee rehabbed enough to catch. Martinez only to DH. I think he'll start the year on the DL, but I would bet he's back before May 1 assuming no complications . The season starts about a week later this year.
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2015 TV Thread
I don't know if this belongs here but he is on TV, but what's the deal with Brian Williams? How can he expect anyone to buy that he "misremembered" a tale he told more than a few times, about being in a helicopter that was shot down, when the reality was he wasn't? This has to cost him his job, doesn't it?
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Farewell to Dayan Viciedo
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 4, 2015 -> 02:10 PM) I think the defensive limitations just made his downside too low. As many have argued on this board, his skillset makes him an exceedingly poor fit as a fourth or fifth outfielder, essentially meaning that he needed to break out to be of any use at all. I imagine several teams would have taken a flyer on his bat if they felt they could at least use him on the bench in any instance. Even though $4.4m isn't a ton these days, it'll still buy you a pretty high-end bench player, so to commit it on a guy who likely won't even be that useful doesn't seem like a prudent use of resources, especially given the nearly every team is "going for it" to a certain degree this year. Yes, but they could see where he's at in spring training for a few weeks for next to nothing. Someone will sign him, and probably wind up saving a couple million. There obviously isn't a team out there that thinks highly of his ability, because they don't seem to care about losing him over $1-2 million.
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Farewell to Dayan Viciedo
I am pretty stunned they couldn't find someone to give them garbage for him.
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Sox Acquire Yency Almonte (as PTBNL in Gordon Beckham Trade)
He's been about what you would expect for a month and a half of Gordon Beckham so far: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...traderumors.com
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2014-2015 NFL Football thread
QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 4, 2015 -> 01:22 PM) This really does make it look like it's going to be an easy TD: Just a perfect break by the DB there or the Seahawks score. The play he made was hanging on to the ball with contact. It wasn't going to be a TD even if complete. If he doesn't catch it, maybe Carroll comes to his senses and the Patriots are screwed.
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Park Experience Changes?
QUOTE (flavum @ Feb 4, 2015 -> 10:32 AM) I don't care what they play. I wouldn't mind if they mixed it up. It doesn't have to be a ritual of the same song every day. Not a bad idea. Maybe act like a player and ride some tunes when you are winning.
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Park Experience Changes?
QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 4, 2015 -> 08:48 AM) Just please, please, please no friggin cheerleaders or the like. The stupid Chevy Crew thing is bad enough. That's why I think it won't be a very drastic change. They have the Pride Crew. They do a lot of things they already do at NBA games. I think there will be new videos, some new music. Maybe some of the in between inning activities will change. I know he is taking heat for never being at a Sox game, but maybe that is actually in his favor. They are trying to get people who don't go to Sox games to attend. He may be an expert at that.
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Soxtalk Demographics Poll
QUOTE (Tex @ Feb 2, 2015 -> 08:48 PM) Band or political shill? I was thinking band, but I guess it probably works for both.
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Park Experience Changes?
QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 01:39 PM) One thing, compare how the Bulls utilize Benny vs whatever the sox do with Southpaw. The # of skits and routines Benny does are huge hits. Southpaw dances and interviews, but he's mostly a photo op and useless. Do I care? No. I've already said the only thing I want is God Bless America gone. Maybe put a golden ticket between one seat in each section that gives you access to a decked out, clean bathroom where everything is made out of gold. The Bulls, before MJ, used to have Superfan. He was this really heavy guy that would do a lap around the lower bowl every time Tommy Edwards would say "Where are you Superfan". It was amazing he never had a coronary. Eventually, he lost a ton of weight, and I think the novelty wore off.
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Park Experience Changes?
They already shoot t-shirts into the stands. I don't think things will be all that much different than they are now except for maybe some new tunes. They have kids racing down the lines. Southpaw gets some time. I go to games to see what happens during the innings, but some find what goes on in between the difference between attending and staying home. I can't imagine it being irrating enough to keep me away from coming, although the t-shirt tosses get to be ridiculous. People knocking people down for a cheap Chevy t-shirt.
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ESPN Sox vs Cubs Article
This guy thinks the Cubs are better than the Sox. PECOTA says the same thing. Why should anyone here care?
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Park Experience Changes?
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 2, 2015 -> 03:27 PM) The Cubs are pretty much immune to everything that the rest of the sports world faces. They are the exception to pretty much every rule out there. They also got a pass on frisking people going into the park last year.
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Park Experience Changes?
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 2, 2015 -> 03:17 PM) IIRC that was an MLB directive, and I am guessing no one wants to be the person to stop doing it for fear of being labeled a commy. The Cubs don't do it. They do it before the game with the Anthem. Celebrity Take Me Out To The Ballgame takes a backseat to no one.