JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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Everything posted by JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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I didn’t say he is but you said “metrics that helped him at 2b would kill him at SS.” False
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You said “His metrics which help him at 2B, would kill him at SS.” FALSE because his defense plays up at SS
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Right, you would need an average of 1.15 per player (assuming only 26 play all season) to hit 30 as a team.
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The only season he played almost exclusively at SS was 2021. He had a 5.5 fWAR season. His defense was off the charts.
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Isn’t 0.9 fWAR for $4.3M a better WAR/$ rate than you’d expect from the average free agent signing? Heck, if the Sox got the same level of production on a WAR/$ basis from the rest of the 2024 roster they would have had a total team WAR of close to 30.
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Nicky got ripped on quite a bit but I’d venture to say that there’s better than 50% odds the primary SS for the white Sox in 2025 produces less than Nicky’s 0.9 fWAR from last season.
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Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Here’s the problem. The guys that aren’t in the downswing of their career and/or don’t cost a draft pick are like super sought after and cost a s%*# ton of $$$ (Soto, Ohtani, etc). Realistically, the Sox are never going to sign a top 2/3 free agent in any class so we’re left trying to find relative value from the top 10 guys outside of the top few that they can’t afford (or choose not to). Guys like Alonso, Kim, and Santander fit this billing. Yes, you’re going to lose picks. Yes, they’re probably going to spend majority of the contract on the wrong side of 30 but that’s what makes them affordable to a bottom tier franchise like the Sox. In other words, beggars can’t be choosers. -
Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yes, we were arguing Alonso’s worth relative to Fielder at the time of free agency. Fielder’s contract adjusted for inflation is significantly higher than what the Mets initial contract extension offer was. I believe Alonso will age far better than Fielder. The fact that Alonso got so much less than the initial extension offer pisses me off even more that the Sox aren’t a factor because these types of situations where Boras completely misplays his hand are the only shot the Sox have at landing top free agents. -
Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He’s had a lot of Ls the last two winters. Bellinger, Snell (he saved face this winter I guess), Jordan Montgomery, Alonso, Kim, Bregman (TBD) -
Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
When I said the Sox should sign him and make him the face of this currently faceless franchise I was told he wants Fielder money and would certainly top the 7/$158M extension previously offered by the Mets. Oops -
Sox offering all Mar/Apr/May games for $125
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
2025 ticket sales must be going well -
Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Turned down 7 year, $158M extension less than a year ago LOL -
Alonso back to Mets. 2 years/54 million
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to Buehrle>Wood's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Just a littleeee short of the Prince Fielder contract lol -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
But what about 5/$60M? -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I don’t think anyone can definitively say he would choose one offer over the other is my point. Most guys are interested in the most amount of money offered when they hit free agency for the first time. -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I’m not following you on #2. Are you saying he would prefer his contract with the Rays over 5/$60M guaranteed today? -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Boy, that’s an awful lot of assumptions about what Kim wanted from a contract. Ever think 2 years $29M guaranteed is the best offer he could get? I bet he would have been thrilled by an offer of 5/$60M, just like I’m sure Cody Bellinger would have been thrilled by offers longer with more guaranteed money than what he got from the Cubs in 2023 or 2024. One thing is sure, the longer these Boras guys wait into the offseason in recent years, the more it tends to backfire in a big way. Alonso ain’t getting anywhere near Prince Fielder’s $214M… -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It’s not about if he busts or not. Colson is NOT a mlb shortstop. It’s really that simple. -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Why would the Sox have lost a draft pick for signing Kim? And I would have given him a 5 year deal to lower the AAV. He’s only 29 years old. -
Keith Law Top 20 organization writeup
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to PolishPrince34's topic in Pale Hose Talk
But you have posters worried about signing quality free agents because it will block all the highly touted prospects from playing time. I don’t see a long term solution for SS right now, which is why signing Kim to a 4-5 year contract was a no brainer. Oh well -
White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I think that’s about right. It’s likely a $40-50M hit even after accounting for the rise in national tv deals. To my earlier point, anyone thinking they’re making a “huge” profit in 2025 with a mid 60s payroll is mistaken, if I had to guess. -
White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-local-broadcasting-arrangement.html This article says the franchise made $60M in revenue from their RSN in 2022. I think they’re lucky if they’re getting even 1/4 of that in 2025. The only major carrier I know with a deal in place is direct tv. No one is paying $20/month to subscribe directly to watch crappy teams play especially when they can watch the same crappy teams with a $20 antenna. -
White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
$85M across 30 teams pales in comparison to the ass kicking they’re taking by airing CHSN OTA and not having deals in place with the #1 streaming live tv provider YouTube Tv or comcast, etc. I’m very curious to see how this has impacted the bottom line but I bet it ain’t pretty. -
White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
A month ago I was arguing Acuna and Baty was a fair return for Robert imo (to which I received much criticism). If you can’t even get Arroyo without eating cash then yea his trade value is already near pennies and might as well hold on to him. Just now, I was simply pointing out that trading him before the season starts might not be a baseball decision but a business decision instead. I don’t think anyone here can completely rule that out. -
White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert
JUSTgottaBELIEVE replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
^and you think that’s gone well for the White Sox over the past year?
