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caulfield12

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Everything posted by caulfield12

  1. Because he was the top-ranked prospect in baseball coming into the year, and only 20. Has he been healthy the whole year, he would have been even higher.
  2. After the second interception, was down to a 4-5% chance of winning at 538. KC defense picked it up in the fourth, but that game wasn't managed well by Shanahan, either. Ultimately, Mahomes vs. Jimmy G. was the biggest difference between the two teams, as who else could lead three huge comebacks from the brink like he did this last month?
  3. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/local-red-cross-fire-china-coronavirus-donation-mess-200202055418491.html
  4. Because the real mortality rate might be 2X or 3X the common flu, but the numbers aren’t reflecting it, YET. SARs after three months was at 4.8%, and ended up at close to 10%. Almost as many patients have died as have been cleared medically. The official number and actual number of those with this virus might already be in the hundred thousands compared to 12,000. Because you can get sick with this one twice, so a vaccine is REALLY tricky. Because you can pass it on to others without having any symptoms (asymptomatic.) Because so many crowded population centers in Asia....Kowloon/HK, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, etc. 50%+ of the world's population. To prevent it from wiping out 15-25% of the population of Africa, unless we want to play Thanos or Hitler here in terms of culling the world if its most vulnerable segments. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3048459/chinas-belt-and-road-after-gold-rush-pakistan-sees-downside For example, what happens when four million Chinese construction workers pour back into Pakistan after the Lunar New Year holidays?
  5. Well, Viciedo wasn’t far off from can’t miss, he was the highest under 21 bonus at that time...but we also know about Rusney Castillo, Yasmani Tomas, Hector Olivera and Jorge Soler until last season, etc. So they have to get credit for being right 4/5 times, if you include Alexei Ramirez, too. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arikaplan/2018/12/23/the-value-of-the-mlb-deal-with-cuba/#4f379dd1149c
  6. This is like the KW-JR thing with Hahn. Some will say Paddy should quit if he's not receiving the resources or support he needs, but he also has one of the most secure positions in the industry. If you go by the success or projected success of Abreu, Tatis and Robert, that’s one of the most successful runs for any teams in the majors. But if you look beyond those topline guys, other than Adolfo...who’s at best a huge question mark, we probably have the worst record in the big leagues in Latin American talent identification, converting on those targets and development, especially on the pitching side. https://southsideshowdown.com/2015/07/02/chicago-white-sox-add-4-international-free-agents/ None of those other three signed with Tatis have done much. But it's always a crapshoot, right? Just looked it up, Paddy wasn’t as involved with Quintana, fwiw. “The Chicago White Sox’ scouts Daraka Shaheed and Joe Siers, who watched Quintana pitch in the FSL the previous season, recommended that the team sign him.“
  7. They had only one flight out and it was mostly for US Embassy staff across China and also high risk individuals, mostly 60+ or those with pre-existing conditions. I could have trued to leave, but my wife and son wouldn’t have been able to come with me...then would have faced a two week quarantine at a military base in CA, and had to figure out a way home to the freezing Quad Cities. Meanwhile, our school and all of China (even elementary) is attempting online classes starting Feb 10th...which cant be done with the system from outside the country. Some coworkers trapped in Thailand have been told if they don't come back to our suster school in Xi’an (terra cotta warriors location,) they will be replaced by local Chinese teachers. Even my wife is already working online...for a company that sells car insurance when nobody has been allowed to drive for almost a week. Imagine getting an ask about this when you've been stuck at home for weeks, lol. Yet the company (her office) wants to clear 1500000 rmb in Jan/Feb sales. Nobody could go out and buy a car even if they wanted, and many will start asking for refunds or that their car be considered as garaged or in storage. There are plenty of videos online at scmp.com, cnn, bbc....Laurie Garrett at twitter has best, most informative scientific info. Basically, I haven't been outside once in ten or eleven days now. Wife has gone out to get groceries twice wearing ski goggles and face mask, since the eyes are most vulnerable. Nobody can enter a public place without mask, and almost everything in the entire province of sixty million is closed but for some of the grocery stores. When people wake up this morning to realize you can pass it for a period of up to 15 days without being symptomatic, they will start to freak out a bit, just like the stock market did today. Heck, you can even get it, be cleared...then contract it again. Mortality rates are low so far, but very few have been medically cleared and tens of thousands have it but have not been diagnosed quickly enough for a number of bureaucratic reasons as well as the sheer limitation of hospital beds (about 10000). They are even building two pop up prefabricated hospitals in just ten days to house an additional 2300, but too little too late IMO.
  8. What have you done for me lately...ism. Evaluating performance isn't just about productivity, because that would reward some of the most selfish, low EQ individuals in every business, team or organization.
  9. Talking about guys like Betts, Bryant, Lindor...at least is closer. The difference is I can’t think of a team that ever traded a young player like that before the team hit its playoff peak. Maybe the Rays or A’s or Pirates, but it is an extremely rare occurrence. When White Sox fans have been waiting at that point for 14-17 seasons (basically, a whole generation of fans) for another deep playoff run, trading Moncada or Giolito for A or Advanced A level prospects is pretty much crazy. Even trading the three main guys we did, a lot of those guys were closer to the bigs and have still required lots of additional time at the big league level. That kind of trade just turns is into the Rays or A’s without their level of expertise in constantly retooling.
  10. Still not seeing how the O’s looking up at all four teams in their division is anything like Sox situation will be after 2021 unless absolutely everything possible goes wrong...
  11. No....although that’s a better way to look at GDP wealth between the two countries.
  12. Over 9,000 suspected cases not included in the reporting as of yet because the testing can’t keep up (especially in smaller cities), which would put it at over 16,000 and climbing.
  13. It’s more important to look at cases “cleared” vs. critical vs. serious vs. reported/suspected cases, and then there are already thousands or even tens of thousands under observation. The biggest risk is that nearby city of 7.5ish million that I’d never even heard of named Hanggang blows up...48 miles to the east. Undoubtedly, you’ll eventually have huge outbreaks in Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen/Guangzhou. That leads to a situation where those other megacities don't finish their peak cycles of infection until April or even May. For example, today the mortality rate (updated from yesterday’s) is just a tick under 2.4%...which doesn’t on its face seem that much worse than the common flu until you consider the rate of spread and overall lack of preparedness around most of the world. Netflix just debuted a six part show called Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak, and there’s a much more interesting to watch series The Hot Zone based on the 1976 and 1989 (averted in DC area) ebola outbreaks. Scary stuff.
  14. This explains AJ Reed, haha. Altuve dies come off looking better. And it makes our “go out and get Springer instead of Betts” discussion take an added moral/ethical dimension, as well.
  15. Not necessarily. There were reportedly at least 150-200 critical cases still, and many not released or cleared yet. That’s not counting the serious cases (another 200-300 or so) and the underreporting or lack of up to date testing from countryside or rural hospitals across the 15 city quarantine zone. These numbers are just for Hubei Province. The best guess, since this is 85% similar to SARs is the mortality rate in the next week will be somewhere in the 4-6% range...so more dangerous than the flu but also much more alarming due to the rapidity of the spread. It can’t get to Africa without catastrophic consequences.
  16. The death count is not the worry, it’s the rapid, almost exponential growth in cases per day. Mortalities are running at around 2.5%, but it’s spreading at least 3x faster than SARs and SARs after three months was running at a less alarming 4.8% and eventually ended at close to 10%. The real concern in under reporting and projections of as many as 80-250,000 contracting the virus...the horse is already out of the barn, and with more Chinese connections with Africa via construction, trade and tourism, that continent would be particularly devastated by a potential outbreak. As for me, haven’t gone outside for going on a week now.
  17. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-offseason-winners Not sure if this is always a good thing for Sox based on similar “titles,” but we’ll take it for now.
  18. Has to be the son or nephew of Joe Altobelli, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Altobelli Hard to watch the interview with Doc Rivers...Ernie Johnson was just on CNN with Wolf Blitzer and was really torn up. The last time I remember something so shocking was the announcement about Magic Johnson in the 90’s that changed the world in terms of AIDs/HIV awareness.
  19. It is spreading three times faster than SARs, but with roughly 1/3rd the mortality rate (so far.) The fact that they’re actually trying to build THREE prefabricated hospitals in the next two weeks and that even China can’t match the demand for medical supplies like masks, goggles and protective gear should tell you everything you need to know...protective capacity is down at least 75% during the holidays, too. And Kobe Bryant is actually five times more popular in China than he is anywhere in the world. This will hit everyone extra hard here.
  20. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/justin-verlander-laughed-saying-astros-122334554.html Verlander just soaked up all the attention going to Keuchel.
  21. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28562849/dodgers-frustrated-sign-steal-scandal-want-fake-banner-2017 At least the Dodgers are taking the high road...not that you would expect any player to feel right about claiming a tainted title that wasn’t won on the field of play.
  22. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28556285/dallas-keuchel-apologizes-sign-stealing-says-ex-teammates-well
  23. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mike-fiers-said-his-piece-on-astros-sign-stealing-and-baseball-is-better-for-it-023658790.html

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