ChiSox59

Yah, I mean 4/$75-80M is better than 3/$63. I think he’ll opt out. At least he gets to choose where he plays then. If he doesn’t opt out the Red Sox are likely to trade him.

Makes sense. Thanks. In this scenario Moustakas is your 2B until Madrigal, arrives and then he is your primary DH? I assume Collins is just your backup catcher in this scenario? What kind of money do you think Mous requires on a 2 year deal? Something like 2/$25M?

You've probably stated it somewhere in here over the past month, but I am curious, what exactly would your offseason plan be? Seems you always say if we invest in SP, the lineup will suck. If we invest in the lineup, the pitching will suck. Maybe you just think the Sox will suck regardless, but what would you do this offseason if you were in charge to put the Sox in the best position to contend in 2020, but also for multiple years thereafter.

Yah....well, I think JDM is going to get a 4 year if he opts out. Abreu I would be VERY surprised if he gets more than a 2 year deal, but.......apparently he is is going to be here until he retires, so does it really matter how long hs next contract is?

I hear ya. But if you give JDM a 4 year deal and Abreu a 3 year deal, there is nowhere for Vaughn to play in 21-23. I am not counting on him necessarily, but I am not also going to go out of my way to literally block him.

I don't think they're going to let him pitch enough innings to "dominate" until they're prepared to bring him up. Kopech maybe has 150 innings in his arm next season before he's shut down. IMO, they're going to take it very slow with him to start in AAA, take the kid gloves off in June, and he'll be up shortly thereafter.

Sounds like a great problem to have.

Ok. I disagree. Hahn has pretty much already confirmed Kopech will be in AAA for awhile, so argue all you want, but that is what is going to happen.

Odorizzi is 100% getting the QO. I pretty much have that confirmed, FWIW.

I think Odorizzi is a god awful fit for the Sox, so no, he wouldn't be my first choice.

This has been discussed a lot here, but Kopech isn't going to be ready to throw 170+ major league innings. Hahn has already said he's starting in the minors. They'll move him slowly there. Maybe if he's dicing AAA by mid-May and is stretched out, they'll bring him up, but I think they'll kid glove him until June, and bring him up a couple weeks later. I'd much rather have Michael Kopech pitching for the White Sox from mid-June-September than April-July.

Zack Wheeler is not getting a 7 or 8 year deal. $20M per would be $80M on a 4 year deal and $100M on a 5 year deal. Big difference between that and $140-$160M.

Yah, I think 5/$105 or so is about the max he'll get. Could see something less than that.

I really don't see the JDM fit. Sure, he'd be a great bat to have in the lineup. But if the Sox are serious about keeping Abreu around, it just makes no sense. It should be either JDM OR Abreu. If the Sox want JDM AND Abreu, you better give Abreu a max 2 year deal and be prepared to let him walk after that. Unless the Sox plan to move Vaughn this winter, I just really don't see how all these 1B/DH types fit long term.

HARD PASS if Wheeler gets into $150-160M range. That is insane.

I’ve said it before with regards to Yermin, but Sox likely feel they had a better shot of keeping him in the org this way. He’s unlikely to be taken in the rule 5 draft as a DH, cause he can’t catch. If Sox added him to 40 man and then DFAd or out righted him if they needed the spot, he’d be gone to another team that wouldn’t have to keep him on the 25 man all season. Yermin probably isn’t a major league player, so I’m not going to get too worked up on it, but I would venture a guess the Sox felt it would be easier to retain him as depth this way.

I agree with everything you said here. Another good post. I am hopeful that Madrigal helps ease some of that pain. He’s a guy that fits what the Sox have lacked for some time with his ability to put the ball in play, play elite defense and low K rate. But yah, if Moncada takes the same strides at 2B, obviously having Machado is still a home run. I wanted to guy more than anything. But I’m also willing to realize 8 months later that things can still work out ok if the Sox are smart. But history isn’t necessarily on their side.

It was quite a blunder, but 8 months later as we sit today, owing Machado 9/$270M and not having Moncada at 3B where be is arguably already a better overall 3B at a fraction of the price...not sure we’re in a meaningfully better spot. The money is still there. It didn’t go away.

Zero chance Abreu, Grandal and JDM would ever be together on this team. Abreu seems to be a given. We can debate the merits of that, but seems 95%+ chance that occurs. Then it’s sign JDM for 3-4 years and block Vaughn. Or sign Grandal and rotate DH/C/1B between Abreu, Grandal, McCann and Collins. Then in 21 Vaughn takes over 1B and Abreu becomes primary DH, and sign a b/u catcher for Grandal, or keep McCann around. Doubtful Collins is part of the equation at that point, but at least you gave him 2020 to see what you have. He checks a lot of boxes this team is missing so he deserves a full season look.

edit: mean to quote @Eminor3rd, but seems my phone sucks at message boarding. I really liked your Mous take, but as I’ve read more of your thoughts on it, just seems like what you’re proposing / think is the right thing to do is a perpetual rebuild. Sure the Sox are still “building”, and I too have serious reservations about JD Martinez and Abreu coexisting on a the roster for multiple seasons, but the Sox can’t play in the middle for any more than 1 more season. They have limited long term commitments. They have money to spend. They have a good young cost controlled core. Their openings are at positions that should be easier to fill. There is no reason to punt the control of Moncada who could be a legitimate star in this game. They just need to deploy the money intelligently. The chances of them signing Cole is minimal, but go out at get Wheeler, sign Grandal, sign a stop gap SP, trade for a RF and go to battle. Will that team make the playoffs? Probably not. But it should be around contention and fun to watch, and then the entire team returns the next season with 1 more year under its belt. Move Abreu to DH, get Vaughn in the mix and see what you have in 2021. Just don’t see how the Sox could toil around for multiple more seasons as you seem to suggest.

This is a good post. Moustakas is a fine back up option / plan D for a year. You could do a lot worse. But he’s not a great fit as the primary DH.

Yah, I mean I doubt he’d be taken but he’s eligible and would at least make the list of guys Sox consider protecting. Guys like Kubat, Adams and Zangari are also eligible, but highly doubt Sox would even consider protecting them.

Rutherford, Lambert, Dunning, Flores, Hansen, Burdi, Thompson are all rule 5 eligible and would have a chance to get taken.

Sounds about right. Probably a safe bet that at least half of Covey, Palka, Vieria, Ruiz, Zavala, Mederios and Fulmer dont survive the next several weeks on the 40 man.

Yes thank you. 32.