Timmy U

Industry people are often stubbornly predicting moving players to lower defensive positions etc. On pipeline podcast they were talking about how one evaluator was convinced Verlander was headed to the bullpen. I say, we let Montgomery play and over time it will be obvious whether he can stay at short or not. Any talk of moving him to 1st is insane. He might be marginal at short, but he is great at 3b.

I didn’t say I believed in him. I said that’s what I thought his plan was. As a wise man once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

Similar to Santos going to Charlotte, Leyland gets to go up a level with some of his team from Kanny. This is a crucial assignment for the coaches as the Dash look to be loaded. I have Saucke, Zavala, Montgomery, and possibly McClain in the outfield. I imagine Jeral Perez, Antonacci, and maybe Bergolla will be there. Outside chance Ronny Hernandez makes that team as well. Smith and Taylor are probably both in the rotation. Like half of their top 30 with probably pass through at some point.

I think he does have a plan, but it’s not sexy. Build industry-standard or better processes/practices in all departments — scouting, development, analytics — outcompete other teams for young talent, then have a choice of players to form the core of a team. That is, don’t count on three guys you got from one trade to save the franchise. Then when you have that base, spend more to retain/acquire players for sustained success. That is easier said than done and is going to take a lot of time and money to complete, but it is perfectly rational. On the Future Projection podcast this week, Carlos and Ben talked about the successful teams have excellent communication between FO, PD, and scouts. The Sox have been remedial in all three areas and had terrible communication. Getz is trying to fix that and get them to at least league-average. It was clear by the second half of 2021 that the Sox needed a complete demolition of their org, scrape it below the foundation and then build something entirely new. Last year was year -1, this is year 0. Building something competitive is gonna take a long time.

I watched Narvaez a good deal with the Mets. Really seemed old for his age. Catching is a tough job. Always liked him, so maybe this is a decent no-cost pick up. Unlikely he would be worse than Maldonado.

KC struggled all year. Depending on health, their line up was like 2.5 guys.

I thought it was interesting that Baldwin was the first current player they listed. Maybe it's alphabetical. But as the #1 Baldwin stan on this board, I hope it's because they really like the player and think he's going to be a key contributor this year.

The interesting thing with Vaughn is how long his slumps last and how deep they are. Every year he's a pretty good player for 4/5 months, but his bad month(s) are so bad that it drags down his value. Usually it's September. Last year it was April/May. If he could shorten his slumps or hit .200 instead of .150 during them, he could become a 120 WRC+ type of guy. That would be league average for a starter at that position and make his contract a bargain. Maybe Fuller can help him with that.

Meidroth's reputation with Boston is that he is quite good defensively even though physically he may not look the part. OTOH, I am leery of MiLB players that are extremely passive with low exit velocities who build stats on taking walks. MLB pitchers generally go after guys who can't hurt them. So I am skeptical that Meidroth is really better than Badwin or Sosa or Gonzalez or Nishida or whoever. But my fear is not the glove.

My understanding is if Vaughn went to arbitration, the contract could be voided and he could be released. But, if you agree to a contract with him to avoid arbitration, that contract is guaranteed. Am I mistaken?

No.

Loved the interview. Thanks for posting. I run a smallish organization and how he talks about delegating, getting info, process, etc. is spot on. Very impressive.

The Sox were like 29th in team defense last year so Lopez and DeJong were not the answer. I believe better coaching, preparation, and positioning is going to make a big difference no matter who they run out there. Amaya got a fairly long run last year and does not appear to be an mlb player. I think between Baldwin, Sosa, Meidroth, and Montgomery they will fill their middle infield. Had no hopes for Amaya anyway.

Called. It.

Excellent! He did a nice job at Birmingham.

Nice pull on the two Jordans! Sadly, Spencer Adams had hype when drafted, but never had plus stuff. The other two names from back then were Jimmy Lambert and future big leaguer (briefly) Bernardo Flores. A lot of those guys (esp. Stephen’s, Flores and Lambert) were seen as relievers. Low draft picks who struggled some in college that the Sox were trying to reclaim. I seem to remember Stephen’s was overused in college and never did much after being drafted.

Nope. Just went through a Top 30 prospect list from back then and the only starters listed other than Kopech, Cease et al are Alec Hansen and Konnor Pilkington. I'll admit there was 1 year of Hansen hype, but Pilkington didn't rise to the level of even a Gowens, let alone Iriarte, Nastrini, Bush, Batista, etc etc etc. Sox development may still suck, but they've got more depth than they did back then.

I disagree. When Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, and Dunning were traded for, the rest of the Sox pitching in the minors was pretty thin. The prospect pedigree on Giolito, Cease, and Kopech may be slightly > Schultz, Smith, and Taylor, but, by the time the Sox got them, both Giolito's and Cease's stock were down considerably. That's why they were available. Schultz is currently one of the top 3 pitching prospects in the minors (alongside Jobe and Painter). Smith is coming off one of the most dominant college seasons in history. Taylor may be more of a stretch, but having seen him pitch, I think he's a very bad man. After that, there's like 10 guys fighting for spots. John Ely says "don't sleep on Carela" and I personally love Batista. Even their super young guys like Larsen, Oppor, Reyes, LaCombe, etc have upside. I think the pitching depth in their system is waaaaaay better than it was 6/7 years ago.

I thought, didn't we have this guy last year? Of course, I was thinking of another near-miss Boston 3b prospect Michael Chavis. Man, trying to make a living hitting a baseball is a brutal business.

I would call it good, not great. I think you could slap a 50 on it. His strength at every position defensively is baseball smarts. Son of a coach. Always in the right position. Good footwork, so he maximizes his tools. He played mostly 3b in Kanny and his arm was fine over there. At short, it might be a tick light on plays in the whole, but so was Ozzie's. In the outfield, he gets rid of it in a hurry and he hits the cutoff man. He's not Fletcher or Colas or Zavala or Braden Montgomery, but he's fine in any outfield position. I wouldn't make him an everyday CF, but he can play the position. I bet he'd score average or better at 6 or 7 positions defensively.

The answer to this hypothetical is currently unknowable. If Smith and Schultz are just okay, sure preserve the roster spots. If they dominate in a way that announces their arrival as future core rotation pieces, you may have to be flexible. The Pirates certainly don’t begrudge Skenes’ roster spot. See what the season brings. The good ones tend to come quickly. I hope Smith and Schultz make it hard on them.

Yeah, and Bobby Witt Jr. put up 10.4 fWar. Develop 1 guy like that, then spend all you want on FA.

Bannister likes to give starters some exposure to mlb out of the bullpen when they have basically reached their innings limit a la Iriarte last year. They are not putting Schultz and Smith on the Sale/Crochet plan.

The logic isn't terrible, but does a guy like Kim really move the needle enough to make the risk worth it?

Interesting. Thanks for this. I think you may be light on Dumesnil. He’s got the kind of tools that, if he performs, he could be a top 5 guy. But that’s why they play the games.